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a daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well. Bears making lower lows but bulls buy them. That means prominent tails above and below bars and you have to be humble about your scalps. Markets don’t go from big bull to big bear trend and betting on breakouts after mind boggling rallies is low probability and a losing strategy. nasdaq Bears tried all day to get the market down and bulls just bought the last hour to reverse 12h of price action. After hour spike was big enough for many stops and we will probably range between 17400 and 17800 the next days. Nvidia’s earnings were happening while i typed it. Interesting bar from 17409-17618. But also changes nothing. Market is looking for the next trend and we keep ranging until a strong one has formed. It’s up and down and down and up. Confusion is the hallmark of a trading range. I think anything above 17500 is an incredible short opportunity. This spike might just retest the bull channel breakout and will be faded hard. Don't be exit liquidity at these highs. bull case: Bulls bought 17400 and had a very strong close above the 1h 20ema. They now want a higher high above 17620 to stop the bears from making lower lows. Since the selloff was around 700 points, i expect some bulls who scaled in lower, to exit their longs along the way and the best the bulls get is another lower high below 18000 and first they need to close above the daily 20ema too (around 17570). bear case: Bears want a lower high below 18000 and preferably below the open of the week 17722 to keep late bulls trapped. The month is almost over and the close of this months bar with the new ath is very important, if bears manage to close it below the old ath 17716, it’s a sell signal. They want the tail above to be as big a possible. Anything below 17300 would give us a bloodbath March. short term: sideways - probably inside a range 17400 - 17700 (ignoring the after hour spike for now and wait for globex open). open of the week was 17722 and spike high was 17683 medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 18300. trade of the day: just short since EU open - 15m 20ema was resistance until the last hour and you had to get out on bar 58
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. In my weekly outlook i talked about the major trend reversal for most indexes since the bull trend is coming to an end and we are in a trading range at the highs imo. Markets are in the process of forming a top and confirmation would be lower lows by the bears now. Today was a good start. sp500 In my weekly outlook i said down then sideways, that was good for +45 bull case: Bulls bought the pullback to the bull trend line which started early 2023-12. Market has formed a triangle and bulls want to test the 1h 20ema, the bear trend line above and they need to close the bear gap to 5000, otherwise it’s a sell signal. They do stopped the bears today at 4970 and odds favor sideways here first. bear case: Bears see the lower high double top with the ath. They got their pullback to 5000 and now they want to keep the gap above open to trap late bulls. If they succeed in keeping it open and making 4995 resistance, we could easily drop to 4900 this week and maybe even 4880ish. But let’s get the first bear target and then evaluate again. short term: sideways - bulls could close the gap and trade more up to form a lower high below 5030 but i give the odds to sideways medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: selling 4990 and buying 4975 - mostly trading range price action (or a broad bear channel, it does not matter because you trade them the same) where you either stay away completely or buy low and sell high and scalp
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today we witnessed a perfect bull trap above the recent new all time highs for US markets. Here is the most important quote from my weekly outlook i posted yesterday: We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. The higher highs maybe higher than i anticipated, yet the thesis was and is perfect and if bears can get follow through the next days, the highs are in for maybe a decade. sp500 Quote from yesterday’s weekly outlook: We could easily see a 200 point drop to the daily 20ema because no one wants to be left holding the bag buying at the ath and the market is overdue for some sort of minor correction. Bears wont get a bigger one until we have traded more sideways at the highs. Biggest question now is the monthly close and if bears manage to close it below 5000, i think its very likely that the highs are in for the year. Targets for the bears next week are 5000, 4950, 4900. Market rallied hard and fell harder afterwards to close below Friday’s close. Perfect bull trap. bull case: Bulls made another ath and have many support lines to buy from. As long as they keep it above 5025, bulls are still in control. They want to trade back up from the lower bull channel trend lines for at least a retest of 5050 or 5066. bear case: Bears stepped aside for the opening rally to a new ath, just to aggressively sell the double top bar 13 at 5065. The sell off was strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move would bring us right back to 5000. They trapped many late bulls and many more will have stops around 5020/5000. So if bears can generate good follow through, we might see more big profit taking. Next target below 5000 is the daily 20ema around 4940. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: long from the open because it was right at the 1h 20ema and bar 9 was a good 15m bull signal bar and short bar 13 (was a perfect double top on the 5m chart)
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today was the day i started talking about around 2 weeks ago. The price action of the last 6 days was conclusive and i had no doubt market will reach the given bullish targets for more bear pain. SP500 e-mini futures printed 5020 and printing a new ath tomorrow is highly probable. I hope you played it and made some. Quote from 2024-01-21 short term: up up up - can’t see this not printing 5000 in the next days or 2-3 weeks. Can markets reach even higher targets or will we get big profit taking and a correction? That’s the million dollar question and i can’t answer it for you, nor can anyone else. We are in the business of following big institutions and the given price action, not fortune telling. Other furus give you sensational clickbait targets which suit your bias, i won’t. My bullish bias has concluded with today and i see absolutely no reason to buy anything at these highs anymore. I am neutral short term until bears show up and bulls begin to take profit. After a first correction with follow through, i will evaluate lower prices but it’s unreasonable to talk about any bearish targets for now. sp500 bull case: Bulls printed 5020 and they want to party to continue. Can they even print higher prices? For sure but are you willing to buy the highs here? I’m not. Odds favor a new ath but you need a far better entry than 5015-5020 to have a good r:r for this. bear case: Bears need to show strength. Their first target is a close below 4980 (1h 20ema is around 4982) but i think the best they can hope for is a trading range at the highs before we get a major trend reversal. Today was 0 bearish price action, only bulls who took profits imo. short term: sideways medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Tight trading range in EU session let to nothing, wait for breakout and enter above a good signal bar, breakout bar 27 should have been the long of the day. no reason to exit until close
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets went sideways today, as was expected and laid out yesterday. We are forming many triangles, which means that prices are converging and we get a break out soon. Bears tried a bit but bulls bought it, which confirms my thesis of higher prices. I still expect a bit more sideways movement. If i had to guess, i’d say we reach the tops before Opex and crater into or afterwards. But that’s guesswork and you should not trade on such things. Let’s look at me painting and how the sp500 did today. Sell vacuum to support from the open down to 4937, which was 5 points above Friday’s open. Bulls bought it and bears stepped aside. We closed 11 points below the open. Daily 20ema + 15m 20ema is pretty flat and we are in multiple triangles. Odds just scream more sideways until breakout. bull case: Yesterday i said a pullback is in order and we will probably trade sideways, that was pretty spot on. Now we wait for the bull breakout and a new ath or a couple. I have no doubt market will print them. bear case: Still not much. Best they can hope for is a trading range and stop the advance but they are weak and when that changes, you will notice. It’s still BTFD. short term: Sideways to up. Look for longs. medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Short from the open after bar 37 and exit on a bull bar. Buy the 3 bar reversal (bar 39, 40, 41), latest bar to long 44
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
March E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart - 12/18/23March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures continued the rally that began at the beginning of November, taking out the recent high from the last week in July. MACD recently experienced a bullish cross by crossing above its signal line. That relationship is widening, which indicates a continuing bullish trend. RSI is getting closer to being overbought at 70, though bearish divergence might be in play as the RSI is lower than its peak in August, even though price has taken out the high in August. This could indicate that momentum is weakening, and a reversal might occur. If the bullish trend continues, resistance might be found at the April 2022 high of 4,860. A reverse to the downside could find support at the 61.8% Fib level (4,530) and at the 52-week moving average (~4,400). Please Note: Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of analysis (12/15/23). Market conditions are subject to change and may not reflect all market activity.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tradovate
Weekly Setup and 10 AM TRADEThis is a holiday abridged week. I expect market volume to taper off after Tuesday or so, with it coming alive following Monday. Thursday and Friday, the NYSE remains closed. Happy Thanksgiving! My Weekly Scenarios Scenario 1: I think if we are able to remain above 4510-4515 this week, there may be a tendency to test 4552 area. I do think there is a possibility of a range extension into 4586-4600 due to seasonality, mega caps etc. ES Weekly Trade Plan Inflection: 4508-4512 Upper Levels: 4545 / 4565 / 4606-4614 / 4634 Lower Levels: 4484 / 4467-4474 / 4423-4430 / 4400 ES Monday Trade Plan Inflection: 4508-4512 Upper Levels: 4537 / 4545 / 4560-4566 / 4580 Lower Levels: 4500 / 4493 / 4474 / 4467 STAY FROSTY!
CME_MINI:ESZ2023Long
by Beyond_Charts