Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. It held above 18,360 at the close, and today’s candle formed a golden cross as the MACD crossed above the Signal line, creating a potential buy signal. However, this signal will only be confirmed if the candle closes as a solid bullish bar, so it's too early to say that a buy confirmation has been established.
On the weekly chart, although the index has not yet reclaimed the 5-week MA, it has gapped above it. Overall, the index appears to be forming a box range between the 3-week and 10-week MAs, and if further upside occurs, we could potentially see a move toward the 60-week MA. However, since the MACD and Signal line on the weekly chart are still sloping downward, there's a high possibility of a medium-term pullback even if the index rallies to the 10-week MA.
On the daily chart, the index is still meeting resistance at the 20-day MA, and the key point now is whether the MACD completes the golden cross or turns downward again. Since the index has managed to hold above 18,360, the potential for a rebound remains open. Buying during pullbacks near the lower wick remains a favorable strategy.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is turning upward after finding support at the Signal line, forming a potential third wave of buying. In short-term timeframes, buying on dips remains favorable.
This week, the Retail Sales data is scheduled for Wednesday, and the U.S. markets will be closed on Friday. Please keep that in mind for risk management.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher in a narrow range on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, a long lower wick formed, finishing with a doji candle, suggesting indecision. Last week, oil was rejected at the 3-week MA, forming an upper wick. If it rallies this week, it could target the 5-week MA. The $65 level, near both the 5-week and 240-week MAs, remains a strong resistance zone, making it a potentially favorable area to consider short trades.
On the daily chart, oil has entered a box range between the 5-day and 10-day MAs. Though the MACD and Signal line still point downward, oil is currently holding within a supportive range. There is a possibility the MACD could begin to turn upward, so keeping both bullish and bearish scenarios open is advisable.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is still rising after a golden cross but remains below the zero line, suggesting a potential for another pullback. Overall, monitor intraday movements and continue to trade within the range.
Gold
Gold closed higher, setting a new all-time high. The weekly chart formed a strong bullish candle, resuming its upward trend. Buying near the 3-week MA remains favorable. As the price has overshot the previous target of $3,216, we’ve now entered an overshooting zone, making it difficult to define the next resistance. Therefore, caution is advised for short positions, and it’s best to focus on buying the dips.
On the daily chart, the new all-time high generated a bullish signal, and buying near the 3-day MA is recommended. Gold may enter a sideways consolidation phase while aligning its moving averages. In that case, buying near the 5-day MA may also be considered, but avoid chasing the price higher.
The MACD has made another golden cross, and it’s important that the MACD doesn’t create a divergence by failing to surpass its previous peak. Avoid shorts, and stick with buy-the-dip strategies. On the 240-minute chart, buying momentum remains strong. The RSI is in overbought territory, so again, avoid shorting and focus only on buying during pullbacks.
Market Outlook
Compared to the last two weeks of high volatility, this week is expected to be more subdued. After a period of extreme moves, the market is likely to consolidate and seek direction. Rather than swinging for home runs, it's better to focus on small base hits and steadily build profits.
Wishing you a successful trading week!
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Emininasdaq100
The NASDAQ is Approaching a Selling OpportunityCurrently, the NASDAQ is showing a strong uptrend on the daily chart, but the gap between the 3-day and 5-day moving averages has significantly widened. Even if the market opens with a gap up today, a pullback is likely due to this divergence, so chasing buys is not recommended.
For selling at the top, consider these levels: 21940, 22040, and 22110. Especially near 22040, the resistance zone aligns with the upper Bollinger Band, making it a favorable level for selling.
Following President Trump’s announcement of expanded AI infrastructure investments, AI-related stocks like NVIDIA have surged. However, it’s unlikely that the rally will continue significantly from this point. Additionally, the NASDAQ has already triggered a sell signal on the 30-minute chart, and this could cascade into sell signals on the 60-minute, 120-minute, and 240-minute charts. Be cautious about chasing long positions.
For dip-buying opportunities, 21770, a previous resistance level, may serve as a good entry point if the market pulls back. Should the price drop to the 5-day moving average, 21630 would offer an even better buying opportunity.
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NASDAQ, all sell signals are about to alignThe Nasdaq is currently showing sell signals on the 60-minute, 120-minute, and 240-minute charts, indicating a high possibility of further decline. If a bearish candle forms on the 240-minute chart as well, the sell signal will be confirmed, making additional price drops inevitable. The direction of the candles is expected to be determined in about 2 hours, and if the price falls, there could be a strong downward shockwave breaking below 21,500, so caution is advised.
On the daily chart, the price is still supported by the 5-day moving average, so it may temporarily appear to rise. However, a clear buy signal has not yet appeared, and the price is likely to test the lower support level around 21,000, potentially forming a double bottom. Aggressive chasing of a buy position is not recommended at this point; it would be more advantageous to sell at the highs. The key support level for buying is projected to be 21,570. If this level is breached, buying from the lower range would be the most favorable strategy.
It is unlikely that a significant upward surge in buying will occur today, so it is better to focus on selling during any price increases.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/13/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Nas1oo BullishLooking for a sell setup in that red area just above where price is currently at. I want to see Tuesday create the low of the week, Tuesday or Wednesday Then get that expansion to take out short term high. The Long I will look to take below Monday's Lows... in that bit of imbalance just above 50% of the weekly range. I am assuming that the current weekly range we are trading in as of now will not hold and the agenda is to take buyside stops before running lower for the market crash.
Day RangeI am new to TA, trying to estimate the price range for the next one day or two.
disclaim: my idea can be totally wrong.
--- Jul 18th ---
emininasdaq100: high 12200, low 11820 (11960)
TNA: high 36, low 33 (34)
If it is more likely to touch the high, the low can be estimated too low based on regular day range, 11960 may be more reasonable?
NQ1! (E-MINI NASDAQ 100) Trading Signals Daily Analysisafter a study based on the chart in front of you, I assume that the price of NQ1 will continue its downtrend until the horizontal resistance of 12376.25 USD, and if the chart breaks this resistance it is that the price will continue again the downtrend is the red field that I drew for you, as I drew you a second horizontal resistance at 14428.75 USD, that if the chart breaks the oblique resistance within a week, it means that this is the beginning of an uptrend which will continue to the horizontal resistance of 14428.75 USD, this is the green space that I have drawn for you on the chart.
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E-Mini SP 500 Futures Weekly Chart Gann PredictionlevelCME_MINI:ES1! near the convergence of multiple Gann Support Levels 4345, 4335, and 4315 indicating a possible bottom this week from which we can start to move towards Gann Resistance Levels 4403, 4415, and 4460.
CME_MINI:ES1! closing above 4460 this week would indicate continuation of the uptrend towards 4460, 4480, and 4560 Gann Resistance Levels next week.
Good Luck!
NQ - Nasdaq 100 buy support zones analysisHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures ( NQ ) support zones where it makes sense to time long positions. A possible correction could provide a shopping opportunity in interesting volume zones. It is definitely worth following further developments. The thickness of the support zone reflects the importance of this zone. Red lines are fair prices by volume.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
NQ - Nasdaq100 e-mini futures buy zones (MNQ valid)Hello traders,
Description of the analysis:
M30 strong s/r zones. Currently NQ in the all time high area, where the probability of rejection and decline is increased. Sentiment will show. Support zones ideal for timing short-term long positions (gray). Trade what you understand, trade carefully and sparingly according to the business plan. Analysis is also valid for e-micro MNQ futures.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund ($4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob