EminiS&P Long & Short Of ItIn this update we review the recent price action in the eminiS&P futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target
Eminisp500
Bounce just enough to fill that gapPanic selling of the last week has left a gap which is more often than not filled later on.
Besides bouncing of the bottom half of the established downtrend channel as well the price is now over the weekly pivot.
+4% from the weekly pivot more or less.
Will this result in a trend change? I doubt it.
Temporary Relief!Looking for a temporary relief on the SnP up to that blue zone 4200 area. . .I want to see price test that zone again before it plunges again. So taking a buy stop slightly above Friday's close ad stop just below as shown.
S&P 500 Support Becomes ResistanceAfter a nice solid bounce over the last week, the market is beginning to pull back. Why is this happening and what can we expect next? Previously I had posted that the 3850-3950 region was a key area of support. Once that level was broken, this region is now a key area of overhead resistance. Here are two scenarios on how this might play out.
1) The most likely scenario is one more down leg to at least 3500. The 3200 level is a possibility still, but a lot of the bad news is factored. Another significant geopolitical or economic crisis is needed to reach 3200. The fact that there was strong volume on this recent bounce (see chart) means that institutions are beginning to buy at these levels.
2) Best case scenario is an up day this week on strong volume with a close above 4000. This would indicate a short-term bottom at least and there will be continuation.
Trade safe.
SPX500Here's the outline of my explanation for my bias and why I see/saw what I'm showing you guys here on this chart. Enjoy (:
Emini S&P and US100These to go always hand and hand, note that.
Us100 got a FVG - which it did not rebalance yet. And S&P reacted nicely to a Bearish Order Block.
Take Note, it may come back up and than rally down to those relative equal lows on 1H TF on S&P.
More downside expected!Today's bearish daily was confirmation that the rally was just but bear market rally and I expect further downside before the 'bottom'. Targeting the 3600 zone...from there Il asses again. The R on this trade is 2.9.
Market Capitulation Still To ComeThe S&P 500 hit the mid 3850 region as we have been expecting and we saw a bounce from that level. Here's the kicker, there seems to be more downside to come. At a market bottom, price action is panicked get out at all cost selling. While the selling last week was extremely broad across the market, and a few stocks got hammered significantly, such as COIN, the overall market didn't trade that way.
Short-term - Expect a bounce up to the 4200 region.
Medium-term - The next leg down will be vicious and will make new lows. Our targets are 3600 and 3200 region.
Long-term - Identify stocks you want to own for the next 10 years and buy them at a discount when they hit these new lows.
I'll update my Twitter over the next few days with potential long plays when the next leg down happens. DYOR
S&P 500 Looking Fill the GapI expect the gap around the 4000 level to be filled by mid-May taking it to the bottom of the channel. This isn't likely the bottom, but it will probably be the start of a short-term rally.
ES1! E Mini S&P500 Daily ContinuousE-mini S&P 500 (futures) – Daily:
Pitchfork trend is maintaining momentum lower and price action has tested the median line support. If price action moves below then look for support/risk against the lower level line. Should ES catch a bounce look for resistance against the upper level line.
E-Mini SP 500 Futures Weekly Chart Gann PredictionlevelCME_MINI:ES1! near the convergence of multiple Gann Support Levels 4345, 4335, and 4315 indicating a possible bottom this week from which we can start to move towards Gann Resistance Levels 4403, 4415, and 4460.
CME_MINI:ES1! closing above 4460 this week would indicate continuation of the uptrend towards 4460, 4480, and 4560 Gann Resistance Levels next week.
Good Luck!
SPX - We goooodHere using Fibonacci and harmonic pattern theory, ostensibly this scenario is plausible.
Good luck and best regards
SPX - Few bullish breakouts improve the picture for SPXSPX shows signs of improvements similar to the majority of other U.S. indices. Over the past few days, it started to develop relatively bullish structures on the daily time frame. At the same time, the weekly time frame started to turn neutral, and selling pressure in the market ceased. We are turning increasingly bullish on SPX. However, we are also very cautious and we keep watching price action very closely. We will look for any signs of potential exhaustion in SPX as well as in other major U.S. indices.
Illustration 1.01
The chart above shows SPX in the daily time frame. It shows a bullish breakout above the resistance connecting major peaks throughout the recent correction. Additionally, SPX broke above two other resistance levels, particularly at 4 416.78 USD and 4 489.55 USD. These levels act now as support areas.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI started to develop a bullish structure recently. However, over the past four days, it started to flatten and turn neutral. Stochastic oscillates in the bullish zone, however, it points to the downside. MACD is due to perform a bullish crossover which, if completed, would further bolster a bullish case for SPX. DM+ and DM- are bullish. ADX undergoes reset. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI reversed to the upside which is bullish. Now we will watch whether it will manage to break its bearish structure (break above white line in Illustration 1.02). MACD and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX flattens. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
The bearish RSI structure on the weekly time frame remains intact as is shown in Illustration 1.02.
Support and resistance
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Tomorrow Key Day for SPX After the news of the 25bp rise from the Fed today, the market had a strong rally and broke above its downside channel. Tomorrow is a pivotal day. If we see follow through, this rally will continue to the 4500 region. But if tomorrow the SPX breaks back into the channel to the downside, it will likely continue to the bottom of the channel. Trade accordingly.
SPX Still in DowntrendEvery time the S&P 500 rallies, volume indicates institutions are selling into this rally. The fundamentals continue to decline with a recession clearly on the table.
E-Mini S&P 500 FuturesWatching for this inverse H&S to take off. I think we're looking up on the S&P 500.
ES1! Potential Bearish Bat pattern on E mini futures
Short around 4440 with stops above 4485.
PT around 4330.
Good Luck!
Emini S&P 500 (ESH2022) *Entry*Lows Were Swept from the previous *Prediction* Analysis and as I anticipated. There was a swing high that was formed at around 9:00 am LA Time which got broken causing an ICT Market shift Model where I took an Entry at the lowest Fair Value Gap and Stop loss Just below the candle. I will be Targeting the Redlivered Rebalance and will keep you updated...
I will be following These Rules.
Trading Rules for ESH2022:
Take 50% partials at 1R
Move SL to Entry at 1.5R
At 1-3 RR Close 90%
Let Rest run to TP or Break even
SPX January Lows Likely to be TestedAn expanding wedge with rising distribution volume, a possible head and shoulders formation, and a rejection of overhead resistance, all looks bearish in the near term. How the SPX reacts at the January lows will determine if we drop down to the 3800 level afterwards.
Short term - Bearish to 4200
Medium - Bearish
SPY zone for next two weeks atleast SPY absolute resistance at 473.25 big one
SPY immediate resistance at 458.51
Looks like a Channel starting with 458.51 level as resistance and support at 431.66 and 418.34 for some good period of time
there should be some really good news to break the levels. pardon me if im wrong .
Disclaimer : this is just my analysis formy educational purposes.. not any buy or sell signal
$ES_F 2.03.22 Overview and Levels to watchOur globex inventory is 100% short, yesterday end of day move wiped out all the buying we had in RTH and trapped supply over 4550 so what can we expect from it today? Its a lower volume week with sellers above 4590 and buyers below 4520 which is why we are getting this chop order from that takes everyone's money, have to be patient to trade this. On the down side we have 4524.25-4519 as our PM support and holding below it would be our first signs of weakness, we have 4508.75-4505.50 as KEY intraday support if broken can see 4497.25-4494.75, 4490-4487.25 and if enough supply can test 4479.75-4475, all those areas might have responsive buyers when we hit them as we have people short who cover when we come down. On the upside if we continue to hold over PM support we have 4536.75-4532.50 as PM resistance and 4551.25-4548.75 as our KEY resistance that need to be broken if we want to see 4570-4562.50, 4589.50-4584.75 and 4603-4598.75. It might be a small range low volume day so have to manage your expectations.
Macro Analysis on ES: OMGIn this video, I analyzed the macro picture of ES and tried some tools such as Trendline, Elliot Wave theory, and Fibonacci retracement.
The idea was to get a sense of where we are in the market, what's going on right now, and where possible the market can go in the future (of course just a technical analysis not financial advice)
What do you think? Let me know in the comment
PS:
- I am no EW expert, this is just an attempt to express what I am seeing right now.
- That's my first, raw video, hence, there are some mistakes that are I couldn't correct, don't sue me for that ;-)
$spx context analisysas long as November 2020 breakout area holds, $spx remains a long in the longer term picture!
