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Trading Plans for TUE. 09/12 - Spikey Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/12 Our current bearish bias for positional trading continues, with the bear case appearing a little more plausible in the coming days. It is hard to find what unexpected bullish scenarios could evolve in the near future, so bulls need to be a bit cautious with their current gains. Taking some money off the table could be prudent. Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4490, 4473, or 4450 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4487, 4478, 4463, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4470, and short exits on a break above 4481 or 4466. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for MON. 09/11 - Potential Spike-up Ahead?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 09/11 Our current bearish bias for positional trading notwithstanding, our intraday models point to a possible spike up today. Shorts need to be patient and not jump the gun but wait for confirmation for initiating any new shorts. Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4483, 4475, 4466, or 4459 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4487, 4480, 4472, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4463 or 4457, and short exits on a break above 4450. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for FRI. 09/08 - Back to the Basics - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/08 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 09/07: "The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls". This bias is still applicable for today. Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4483, 4472, 4459, 4455, 4444, or 4436 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4480, 4468, 4448, 4441, or 4434 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4457 or 4453, and short exits on a break above 4450. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for THU. 09/07 - Back to the BasicsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/07 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Wed. 09/06: "In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation". The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls. Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4490, 4472, 4445, or 4419 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4488, 4468, 4457, 4442, or 4415 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4459. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/06 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 09/05: "Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction". In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4490, 4472, or 4445 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4496, 4488, 4468, 4459, or 4442 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4462. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Consolidation Week Ahead?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/05 As we wrote in our trading plans published Fri. 09/01: "The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run". Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4418, or 4502 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4528, 4516, 4498, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4510, and short exits on a break above 4491. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:41am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
NFP Numbers and the GoldilocksS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/01 As we wrote in our trading plans published Mon. 08/28: “If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias”. We got this confirmation with Monday's close, and our models have turned cautiously bullish on Tue. 08/29. Ever since, the markets have been on the upswing heading into - and, post - the NFP numbers release this morning. The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4568, 4547, 4532, 4509, or 4491 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4565, 4543, 4517, 4506, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4555 or 4529, and short exits on a break above 4559 04 4522. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nfp, #jobs, #nonfarmpayrolls, #payrolls
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Turning Cautiously BullishS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/29 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Mon. 08/28: "If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias". We got this confirmation with yesterday's close, and our models are turning cautiously bullish for today. There are mixed signals about the viability of this push up, hence the cautiousness. With the economic released coming in rest of the week, with the culmination into the NFP Friday, there is a risk of volatile spikes in either direction. If you are entering into a positional trade, make sure you have enough bandwidth to sustain wide swings. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4486, 4476, 4463, or 4454 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4483, 4473, 4460, 4450, or 4437 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4443. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
4400 Breakout Confirmation Today?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/28 As we wrote in our trading plans published Thu. 08/24: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". On Friday, 08/25, we wrote: "Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday". If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4426, 4407, 4402, or 4387 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4424, 4413, 4405, 4398, or 4384  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4430. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Seeking Shelter from Recession in the Utilities SectorBoring is better in a recession. Fed Chair reaffirmed his steely resolve to fight inflation. In short, he wants to break the back of inflation "at any cost" to subdue it down to Fed’s target of 2%. Soft-landing is desired. But overcorrection to fend off sticky inflation could tip soft-landing into a hard one. In a recession, economic activities shrink resulting in declining outputs and softening demand across consumers and businesses. Recession leads to rising unemployment and reduced consumer confidence. History has ample evidence demonstrating that defensive sectors typically outperform the broad market index by more than 10% on average. This paper posits a long position in Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF ("XLU") to harvest potential outperformance gains plus a dividend yield of 3.3% and combined with a short position in CME Micro S&P 500 Index Futures. INFLATION REMAINS HOT; FED RESOLVED TO FIGHT IT CAN LEAD TO RECESSION Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his determination to tame inflation down to its target 2%. He reasserted his singular focus on restoring price stability in the US. If that requires higher interest rates for longer to get back to 2% target, then so be it. That was the key takeaway from Jackson Hole Central Bankers Symposium in Wyoming. US inflation is much cooler than a year before. History has taught policymakers an expensive lesson to avoid declaring victory too soon. Softening inflation combined with record low unemployment, strong business climate and resilient consumer balance sheets point to a potential soft-landing. However, over correction could tip into a hard landing. WHAT HAPPENS IN A RECESION? During a recession, non-cyclical sectors, like Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care, have historically performed well. The fortunes of these sectors hinge on non-discretionary spending and hence less sensitive to economic fluctuations. These defensive sectors have outperformed the broad market by more than 10% on average during six of seven past recessions. Tech & Real Estate rank among the worst-performers. Dependant on discretionary expenditure, these sectors are the first to face the heat when businesses and consumers cut spending as incomes shrink. UNPACKING THE S&P SELECT SECTOR UTILITIES INDEX The Utilities Select Sector Index ("Utilities Index") is market-cap-weighted and tracks the performance of the largest thirty utility firms in the S&P 500. It aims to deliver exposure to firms from the electric & water utility, independent & renewable power producers, and gas utility industries. The Utilities Sector includes firms that provide essential services such as electricity, natural gas, and water. These firms marshal stable cash flows and low debt levels. Consequently, the sector is described as a defensive play which performs well during economic downturns. The Utilities Index was launched on 16th December 1998. Over the last decade, the index has delivered an average annual return of 5.5%. It exhibits lower risk with a volatility of 12.5%. It is popular among long term investors looking for a defensive investment vehicle. As of August 2023, the Utilities Index reveals an aggregate price-to-cash flow ratio of 10.1x, price-to-earnings of 19x, and one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17x. Largest firm in the index weighs in with a market cap of USD 136.6 billion. The smallest firm has a market cap of USD 8.5 billion. Weighted average market cap of the index stands at USD 51.15 billion. Top ten constituents forming 59% of the Utilities Index as of 22nd August 2023 are: • NextEra Energy (14.85%) • Southern Company (8.03%) • Duke Energy (7.5%) • Sempra (4.88%) • American Electric Power (4.40%) • Dominion Energy (4.34%) • Exelon Corporation (4.32%) • Constellation Energy Corporation (3.75%) • Xcel Energy Inc. (3.47%) • Consolidated Edison Inc. (3.37%) Twelve-month price targets for the top-10 in the Utilities Index looks compellingly strong except for Constellation Energy and Consolidated Edison. Mean 12-month price targets are on average 14% above the closing price as of August 25th. Investors securing a long position in the index can expect to generate positive returns from capital gains in addition to a healthy dividend yield. RESILIENCE OF UTILITIES SECTOR IN A RECESSION Experts who have been calling recession have been stumped and humbled with the resilience demonstrated by corporations and consumers. A recession may be round the corner. Or we are living through a rolling recession and rolling recovery which impact one sector at a time. The chart below produced by State Street Research powerfully captures various sector performance across business cycles. If a recession is round the corner, then holding a long position in Utilities is an astute investor choice. COMPREHENDING UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF ("XLU") XLU is a convenient low-cost option for investors to secure exposure to the U.S. utilities sector. It was launched in Dec 1998 and has a low expense ratio of 0.1% of AUM. XLU's AUM stands at USD 14.39 billion. Over the last six months, XLU has had a net inflow of USD 150.2 million. XLU has a 20-day volatility of 12% and a beta of 0.52x. It pays out an annual dividend of USD 2.10 amounting to an annual dividend yield of 3.31%. TRADE SET UP A sector's outperformance does not necessarily mean that it will appreciate during a recession. Since, equity prices generally decline during recessions, outperformance can also mean that the decline in defensive and non-cyclical sectors will be less severe than the decline in growth sectors. Investors can use a spread position to benefit from sectoral outperformance even when equity prices decline. This is because the losses from the long leg will be offset by profits from the short leg which is likely to perform worse. The proposed trade set up comprises of a long position in XLU and a short position in CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures expiring in December 2023 (MESZ2023). The XLU ETF settled at USD 63.63 per share on August 25th. Each lot of MESZ2023 provides a notional exposure of index value times USD 5. MESZ2023 settled at 4463 on August 25th delivering a notional value of USD 22,315. • Entry: 0.0142 • Target: 0.0160 • Stop Loss: 0.0135 • Profit at Target: USD 5,347 • Loss at Stop: USD 2,200 • Reward/Risk: 2.43x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
AMEX:XLULong
by mintdotfinance
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/25 Notwithstanding Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, our models continue to not give credence to the bounce above 4400 in SPX. We need confirmatory signs before we negate our bearish bias. In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4421, 4407, 4384, 4372, or 4356 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4430, 4417, 4405, 4381, 4367, or 4353 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/24 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4477, 4463, 4452, 4433, 4421, or 4407 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4460, 4448, 4430, 4417, or 4405 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4474. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Morning Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/23 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4430, 4419, 4401, or 4392 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4425, 4416, 4405, 4399, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4407. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Bulls Need a Daily Close Above 4400S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/22 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's attempt to push the index above 4400 will sustain till the end of the session. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4415, 4408, 4400, 4392, or 4381 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4413, 4406, 4397, 4388, or 4369 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4378, and explicit short exits on a break above 4371. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #fitch
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Sideways Between Key LevelsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/21 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4402, 4387, 4373, 4351, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4383, 4361, 4348, or 4339 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370, and explicit short exits on a break above 4365. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:46pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #fitch
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for FRI. 08/18 - Key Support Levels BrokenS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/18 To start the week, our trading plans published on Monday, 08/14, stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". On Wednesday, this level was breached. In our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level yesterday, and is taking down multiple support levels this morning. Our models' bias has turned outright bearish today, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4410. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4402, 4379, 4368, 4356, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4390, 4377, 4365, 4353, or 4339 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4427 or 4405, and explicit short exits on a break above 4392. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for THU. 08/17 - Key Support Level Being TestedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/17 Our trading plans published on Monday, 08/14, stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". Yesterday, this level was breached. We also wrote in that trading plan: "This support level is being approached as of this morning. Any sustained breach of this support could open 4400 level as the next support level". The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4438, 4430, 4420, 4407, 4402, or 4383 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4435, 4417, 4398, 4390, or 4380 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4427 or 4405, and explicit short exits on a break above 4392. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:30am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
FOMC Meeting Minutes - Still Relevant to Push the Markets Up?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/16 Our trading plans published on Monday, 08/14, stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". This support level is tested on the index as of this morning. Any sustained breach of this support could open 4400 level as the next support level; any rebound will face 4470-4480 as the next resistance level. The FOMC minutes to be released this afternoon may not really have any oomph factor left for any upside moves, but could potentially push the markets lower if surprising on the negative side (more hawkish than markets are hoping/expecting). Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4481, 4467, 4433, or 4402 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4478, 4470, 4448, 4443, 4430, 4419, or 4398 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:31pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for TUE.08/15 Back to the Basics, and the Reality?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/15 Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". This support level is tested on the index as of this morning. Any sustained breach of this support could open 4400 level as the next support level; any rebound will face 4470-4480 as the next resistance level. With the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation, and the earnings almost in the rear view mirror, markets might be going back to the basics this week in search of a direction. Our trading plans published on Thu., 08/10 stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". The risk is to the downside rather than the upside. Bulls should be wary of any bounces up and use that opportunity to take some money off the table. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4483, 4458, or 4452 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4478, 4470, 4455, or 4447  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SP500 BULLISHMarket Structure: SP500 is in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows and approaching a key level (support, uptrend line, swing low) and there is likely an accumulation of sell orders which are made up of breakout traders and stop losses of long positions. This accumulation of orders creates enough liquidity for the market to match orders at this low point before positioning to go higher. Trade: Wait for price to close below the swing low point and enter long on a buy stop @ 4378.60
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Mankz
Trading Plans for MON. 08/14 - Back To The Basics?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/14 With the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation, and the earnings almost in the rear view mirror, markets might be going back to the basics this week in search of a direction. Our trading plans published on Thu., 08/10 stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". Last week's PPI numbers have validated why we didn't give too much weight to the CPI numbers and the markets' bounce following that. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to choppy markets to continue. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4483, 4474, 4466, or 4452 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4478, 4470, 4455, or 4446  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4462, and explicit short exits on a break above 4458. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/11 Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". Today's PPI numbers have validated why we didn't give too much weight to yesterday morning's CPI numbers and the markets' bounce following that. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to choppy markets to continue. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4492, 4481, or 4452 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4498, 4478, 4461, or 4447  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4488, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom