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Emotions

The Market Cycle of EmotionsWhen things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to these emotions. 1: Optimism, thrill and euphoria Investors all start with optimism. We commonly expect things to go our way, or we tend to expect a return for the risk of investing. As expectations are met, it is common to get excited about the possibility of even greater returns and the excitement becomes thrilling as the returns exceed expectations. At the top of the cycle is when investors experience euphoria. But it is here where investors are at the point of maximum financial risk. When we believe everything we touch turns to gold , we fool ourselves into believing we can beat the market, we cannot make mistakes, that excessive returns are commonplace and that we can tolerate higher levels of risk. 2: Complacency, denial, hope The second phase of the cycle occurs when the market stops meeting our new lofty expectations and begins to turn. At first, we anxiously watch the market for any signs of direction. Anxiety turns to denial and then quickly to fear, as the value of the investments decline. Many people will then start to act defensively and may think about switching out of riskier assets to more defensive shares or other asset classes such as bonds. 3: Panic, capitulation, despondency In the third phase of the cycle, the realities of a bear market come to the fore and an investor may become desperate. Many panic and withdraw from the market altogether – afraid of further losses. Those who persevere become despondent and wonder whether the markets are ever going to recover and whether they should be there at all. Ironically, at these times, an investor will commonly fail to recognize they are actually at the point of maximum financial opportunity. 4: Skepticism, caution, worry In the fourth stage of the cycle, investors may experience some skepticism when markets start to rise. They often have a sense of caution or worry, wondering if market growth will last.—and may be reluctant to invest money in the market at a point when prices are still relatively low and opportunities are attractive. What are the consequences of this emotional roller-coaster? Emotions turn rational investors into irrational investors. So it is important to remember that markets move and investments will always go in and out of favour. Developed, diversified long-term financial plans are placed in jeopardy when investors are confronted by extraordinary events because we are guided by our emotions. This is where the role of the financial advisor is of utmost importance – your advisor can help you separate your emotions from reality and endeavour to steer you on the path of rational investing. You can also help to avoid the emotional roller coaster by being aware of the emotions you are likely to experience. The five most common behavioural pitfalls are: Overconfidence – when investors over-rate their ability to select winning shares or investment managers. Loss aversion – research indicates a loss causes about twice as much pain as a gain causes pleasure. During periods of market volatility investors experience the sense of loss more acutely. Chasing past performance – we see this time and time again, but unfortunately, individual investors who abandon a well-diversified portfolio for bonds, or even cash, may be jeopardizing their future financial security. Timing the market – It is difficult to correctly predict the market's movements. Failure to rebalance – the risk/return characteristics of an investor's portfolio should be independent of what's happening in the market and this means selling high and buying low.* The temptation to fall into one of these traps can be resisted by developing and committing to a well defined, long-term investment plan. This may be the best way to protect yourself from your emotions. Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets. People do not change over time. Information and actions of the consonant received information people do the same actions. Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
59
Trading habits that lead to SUCCESS...Plan for success but have no expectations... A lot of trading emotion comes from expectation. Traders expect the next trade to be a winner, they expect this month to be profitable, they expect the USD to become bearish, etc, etc. Having no expectations can really help to reduce trading emotions. Obviously, you should still stick with a strategy and do all you can to BE success, just don't expect to succeed. Success will come as you unemotionally stick with a strategy that gives you an edge. Success comes from trading your strategy with consistency, not be giving-up when expectations are not met.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
1
FALSE Trading Expectations #3... Win Rate (continued) I lose a lot of the time. A large amount of my trades are stopped-out for a loss. This does not make me a bad trader, it actually makes me a real trader! Most profitable traders are right only 40%-65% of the time. A lot of traders understand that there will be losing trades. What they don't understand is that there will be consecutive losing trades. Even a strategy that has a win rate of 65%, could have 10 consecutive losing trades, maybe even more! This does not make the strategy unprofitable or not worth using. Conclusion... Expect a lower win rate. A win rate of around 50% is ideal. Expect to have consecutive losing trades. Also expect to have consecutive winning trades.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
FALSE Trading Expectations #2... Win RateForex trading is not a 'get rich quick' scheme. It can make you rich, but it will do this slowly. In order to make large returns, a trader may have to take large risks. High risk trading guarantees greater emotional and psychological challenges. This may lead to quick short-term profits but it will also lead to discouraging long-term losses. Too many traders expect far too much far too quickly. They review their performance and results on a daily or weekly basis, this can lead to discouragement and disappointment. Profitable traders review their results much more longer-term. Conclusion... Trading can make you rich, but it will make you rich slowly. To make trading work long-term, you need to risk a minimum. Expect to be patient. Review profits once a quarter or once a year.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
2
Trading with WRONG expectations... #1Almost all traders understand the concept of a drawdown - a period of loss making. A trader is not going to have a 100% trade win rate - there will be losing trades - and there will be times of consecutive losing trades. For some reason, despite understanding this concept, many traders don't ACCEPT this concept. Let me explain... As soon as a trader hits a drawdown, the reaction is panic or discouragement. The following statements could flood the mind of the trader... 'The strategy is not profitable anymore' 'I need a more profitable trading strategy' 'I am going to lose too much, so I will reduce my position sizes' 'I need to increase my position sizes to win back these losses' 'I am so angry, I am going to risk all that I have left in my account' In other words, the trader becomes emotional and let's his emotions determine his trading decisions. This will always result in long-term failure. Conclusion... Accept that drawdowns will happen and expect drawdowns to happen, because they will happen!
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
13
5 Rules For Successful Trading!Trading is simple, but not easy. Traders have difficulty succeeding simply because they are unable to follow clear rules over extended periods of time. So what are the rules that every trader should follow? (in my opinion) 1- Only invest what you Can Afford to Lose. Only invest money you can afford to lose, never ever borrow money or take a loan from the bank to invest in forex, or any other type of investment. Because if you do, you will get emotional and make irrational mistakes. 2- 1% Risk per Trade. We only risk a small portion of our account per trade. We enter with 1% risk per trade (2% max). We enter with a fixed risk per trade, not with a fixed stop loss in pips, nor with a fixed lot size. That’s a common mistake many traders make. 3- Three Confluences Trades. (Technical Edge) Trading is nothing but a game probability. Moreover, we consider ourselves risk managers not only traders, as the only thing we have control over is "risk". The market can go anywhere. To be on the winning side, we need to have an edge over the market. One way to put the odds in our favor is by only entering trades when we have at least three confluences/clues, three things telling us to buy or sell lined-up together. One confluence may be random. For example, we only enter when we have a pattern, support, and divergence. And our rules have to be objective following a well-defined back tested trading plan. I personally use RichTL to make objective (rule-based) technical analysis. 4- 1 / 2 Risk Reward Ratio. (Risk Management Edge) Our second edge is going to be through risk and money management by entering with a positive risk-reward ratio. Remember, it is not about how many trades you win, what matters is how much you win when you win, and how much you lose when you lose. That’s exactly why we enter with a ½ RRR (or higher), which means we always target double our stop loss. This way even with a 50% win rate, we are still profitable. 5- Emotional stability. In the trading world, emotions are considered the enemy of traders. Knowing how to control emotions while trading can prove to be the difference between success and failure. When getting into a bad trade, the trader who can manage his psychology well will be able to minimize risk, while the trader who is emotional may make the situation worse. Therefore, knowing how to control your emotions very crucial in order to succeed in Forex trading. If you are not feeling well, don't trade. Remember: You don't have to catch every trade, and you don't have to trade every week. In fact, our 5 rules are all connected in a way or another. If you invest money you can’t afford to lose or enter with 10% risk per trade, chances are that you will get emotional and not follow your trading plan objectively by closing your trades before reaching 2R or even entering trades that are not according to your strategy. In parallel, even if you invest money you can afford to lose and risk 1% per trade, you won’t be consistently profitable if you don’t have a well-defined strategy that gives you an edge over the market technically or through risk management. In brief, stay away from trading if you don’t have these 5 rules.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TheSignalyst
100
The Most Common Emotions For TradersThe Most Common Emotions For Traders J: Joyful Traders feel joyful and happy seeing the security hit a new high. H: Hope Traders hope the uptrend will resume after the other traders stop profit-taking. S: Scare Traders are scare and worry that the price will continue to drop. Traders have to make a difficult decision to sell at a loss or hold on to the security as the price continues to fall. R: Regret Traders regretted not selling at the previous high price. E: Excitement Traders have new excitement when they see the price bottom as an opportunity to go long. M: More Confident Traders feel more confident with the second bottom valley. I: Indecision Traders cannot make a decision temporarily to trade higher or lower. Thank you for reading! Greenfield Remember to click "Like" and "Follow!" Disclosure: Article written by Greenfield. A market idea by Greenfield Analysis LLC for educational material only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GreenfieldAnalysis
There are no emotional problem in reality...???There are no EMOTIONAL PROBLEM in reality. The problem, you are facing is you do not have any back-tested STRATEGY/SKIL L of identifying what if I do will I get the trades. Another words, you are trying to search a fallen needle in entire city in a limited time. You don’t know what to trade? Which stock(trade) to go for shorting? Should I have to select Short selling or long? Even If I Select at what time should I enter & then exit? => But time is ticking away , worry, concern, , apprehensiveness, consternation, uneasiness, fearfulness, disquiet, fretfulness, agitation, angst, nervousness, tension, stress, misgiving, foreboding, suspense etc.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trade-Technique
19
Update to previously posted GU trade. Afternoon traders This is a update on a previously posted idea from only a few hours ago. It was a trade on GBPUSD on the 30M time. The script I am using is set on this pair at a 1:2 risk reward. I simply take the trade set my stop loss and take profit and let it play out like today's trade. I can get on with the rest of my day knowing I have a proven back tested strategy just working away. The trade played out and hit the take profit target. That takes this pair traded this way with 2% capital risked per trade to 243% net profit year to date. This isn't a brag post it's to show the potential of the script I am using and I have added notes on the chart showing where I might of exited the trade without using the script because emotions would of come into play when the retrace started to occur. Using the strategy removes those emotions and I simply let a prove plan play out. For any more information on the script I am using please drop me a message.
Long
by RichScott
This is how easy GBPNZD has been to trade in last 5 days Hello traders Just wanted to share an idea on how the script I am using is making my trading so easy and clear. Here is GBPNZD on the 45M chart. Two back to back trades working the script I'm using to a take profit target with a stop loss target. These two trades banked 260 pips in 5 days! All back test data at bottom of page showing results on this pair year to date. Such simplistic trend based trading you follow the signals that present on the chart. Enter the trade, set the stop loss and take profit then let the trade run it's course. This helps remove so much emotions knowing you are working to a proven strategy with all possibles out comes covered. It also prevents you closing trades too early for less profit. I've put some examples of where in the past I would of closed for profit too soon or even worse cutting losses and possibly missing out on any eventual profit. For any more info on the script I'm using then please drop me a message.
Editors' picks
by RichScott
27
The importance of working to a trading strategy. Morning traders Just wanted to share these thoughts on the importance of finding trading plans and strategies then sticking to those plans. In my last idea I discussed the importance of holding trades and not to deviate of track. That idea was working the H2 chart following the trend with a stop loss on AUDJPY pair and the trade has been running since 24th November. The script I am running allows me to run numerous strategies to the way I would like to trade. This certainly helps with removing emotions when it comes to trading. Coupled to a built in back tester which reassures on how effective your trading plan could be. These idea in question here is EURGBP pair trade on the 15M chart with a stop loss and take profit target implemented. Risk to reward is 1:2.5 First thing I want to touch on is even though we are trading on a lower time frame here patience is still key. Along with letting trades run there course to the trading plan that is implemented. Back test data for the plan implemented on this pair shows 122% gains on initial investment from Feb 1st of this year. Working to a 1:2.5 RR and a 2% capital risk per trade. We have two back to back trades here which produced 135 pips of profit. Despite being on 15M time frame the two trades took two an half days to play out. If I wasn't sticking to a rigid back tested plan I might have been tempted to close for profit too early or worse still close at the point the trade entered the loss zone. Thus missing out on the eventual outcome which was hitting the take profit target! Emotions are a massive element for us traders to control. The strategy I am using has helped massively with emotion control for myself. For more information on the script I am using please message me.
by RichScott
Bitcoin hype is back. Is it a good buy? No (ponzi).Bitcoin perma bulls are back! After hiding for over 6 months they came back to celebrate once again. Took long enough. Bitcoin bagholders pretending they are making money even though regulators are saying they overwhelmingly lose, it is so bad actually that they had to ban crypto CFDS. This casino market is purely driven by the emotions of hysterical teenage girls with poor intellectual abilities. Let me correct that. Emotions + random indicators. It might be a coincidence but if it is not it is a big goldmine to extract. 15R?! Even 10R! Even 5 would be well worth risking it! Are these rallies on the 2D chart following an MA cross a coincidence? Who knows. I cannot wait for the next crash and MA cross. CFDS got banned so I'll have to send money to a crypto exchange. No point trading BTC now, I would rather wait for something I have high certainty with. Who cares about missing out? Meanwhile I did not care about missing out and I just made 8 times my money at risk on the way up between the 21 October and late November.... I made some good calls I had high certainty of (the 8R I mentioned): The problem with this short is I knew it would happen but I did not know when, and it took forever as usual with Bitcoin. So in the end I have this idea with the right timing but I waited so long for it. It is much easier to make money on the upside, abusing dumb money (and Bitcoin has no shortage of that). According to en.ethereumworldnews.com Bitcoin bagholders hold their coins for 2.7 years (1000 days) but the holding period of the angry baggy in the comments has to be lower, I think people that buy some BTC and store it and forget about it ... wait for it ... forget about it. When the price has been up 66.6% (2/3) above the MA 200 we have witnessed thrill. I might be biased because CFDS got banned which means I am not looking for a buy anymore. Except I am not biased. I did my buy, and now I do not see a clear opportunity. For those that worry about missing out well then they should buy. If you do not want to miss out you buy simple. For me, missing out is not an issue, I will often miss out and I just do not care, and so now I am taking no action. It might be a buy later on but let's be real here, the BTC permaidiots are not going to read this, and I like playing with them, so my title will be no. I want to draw a big red line going to zero but this would get in the way of my annotations and not make sense. Next time big red line to zero. Hopefully the plebes - of they see this idea - only read the big red letters saying pyramid scheme and amuse us with their rage comments ^^ Nevermind I will draw a big red line anyway but also a green one. I cannot tell where we are but I think thrill has started, we are not in euphoria yet but it could be baggies being silent because they think it will magically make the price keep going up, or it could be interest in this ponzi has permanently vanished. No clear conclusions are possible ==> No trade. The conclusions are very clear for perma bulls but they always are no matter what. What is the point of them sharing their opinion? Making us laugh? They are just bullish all the time no matter what, 0 added value. And on the flip side, big panic when the price is down by 33.3% from their average price. Some crypto brokers give leverage. So maybe it will be worth it. Only need to lock as much capital as one wants to risk. Send 100$, for a 10% SL at 12k for example you aim to risk 100 just use 10 leverage and that's it, no wasted capital. Or send $100 to risk 100 with a 20% SL, a long term hold here, aiming to make possibly 1000 or more. Send an additional 50 to pay for rollovers and to have some freedom. Purely hypothetical: If you buy 1 Bitcoin at 15000 your max risk is 15000 if all hell breaks loose, and a 20% SL is 3000 + interests. Those are 6 months to 2 years holds. If Bitcoin goes into an actual bull market there is no reason to take short term trades, the logical time horizons will be those ones. Much better for taxes than lots of tiny trades that these shady crypto exchanges wipe clean of their history. If there is a real opportunity then it is really really hard to miss it. Active investors literally can not miss an opportunity. It's over weeks and we are supposed to check regularly. How do you miss? Just get drunk and avoid the price for 3 months? Even not looking at it you'll hear about it somewhere, somehow. It is impossible to miss a good opportunity. If we miss it it means it was not a good opportunity. So wait and see now. Watch silly perma bulls celebrate now and then stress out and cry later as usual. Let the FOMO crowd chase the top. They laughed at me for missing out 2019 "new bull market" which was not one, and then without trying I made a better return that they would have made if BTC went to 100k, and it has only gotten to 20k for now. And my capital was not frozen this whole time (I had lots of fun in April with literal free money on Oil futures, while they were in heart attack mode after BTC fell back to 3k). I did not make an enormous job on myself to fight my feelings of regret, I just do not have them to start with. Why do people have regret and fomo? Noobs. The longer the time span, the more people with rules and skill outperform the fomo crowd. 3 years just to get back to ath. Each bull market has been slower, so if the trend continues (which makes sense) this will take even longer and we will have more time and it will be even harder to miss an opportunity (time will tell if it will be a win or a loss). Bitcoin 10K never again. Until it completely collapses and goes to zero. But we'll let permabull bagholders worry about that 🙃, we'll have sold long ago when that happens. Also maybe Ursula, Biden, and Xi make a surprise ban in the next 2 years. I already repeated enough times not to fomo and to use reasonable position sizing people here are all grown ups and will make their own decisions (most BTC permabulls are not but I don't make the rules).
BNC:BLX
by MrRenev
39
Baghodlers wiped out at the bottom as usual + time to go to ath***************** Part 1: An expensive but valuable lesson for Bitcoin bulls ***************** I have not heard much from Bitcoin "investors" in the past 12 months. This is what I kept repeating back then (2018-2019): " The bear market is not over/2019 is a fake bull market (hundreds of them laughed at me) They will refuse to sell until Bitcoin goes into panic mode and there is extreme violent selling, THEN they will disappear (maybe a bit before maybe a bit later) You won't hear again from them They will miss the actual next bull market " And what did happen? Haven't heard from them since then 😏 A few people had youtube channels so we can see them closing them, also not posting anymore, and a few have at least made a goodbye video. I think the bulk really left in Q4 2019 - Q1 2020. Mostly during the scaaaary selling. I am not making this up. You can view my past ideas. Here is the last BTC idea that got a lot of attention from haters calling me an idiot. Feb 21. 54 comments. After this it stopped. I was not getting dozens of hate comments anymore. They just went poof. Who's the idiot now? Checking some profiles, no ideas in 7 months I wonder why. Oh someone is bullish on alts that are down and never going up. I posted an alarmist idea in March 2019 when Bitcoin was really down and bagholders were very scared. The amount of hatred I got was interesting. I got even way more than usual. They were in anxiety mode. And they are all gone. Markets are very good at finding peoples breaking point. Bitcoin found crypto investors breaking point. A very valuable lesson. Some of them might return to trading in the future, like some people came back "older and wiser" after getting burned during the dot-com bubble. And the cycle will repeat itself endlessly. This is actually the most Bitcoin has falling in 24 hours at least since 2013. On Bitfinex, bottom 2 was more scary. Still, the March 2020 scare was a 50% drop in 24 hours and this never happened before as far as I know. Not only was it brutal but there was a first part with a massive drop in a couple of hours then a break where baggies were relieved for sure "the worse it over", and then just a few hours later they got hit with another brutal candle that went much further down. The 2013-2015 bear market ended with 30% drops "only". For sure Bitcoin bulls panicked and saw it going straight to zero "this is it", "it's the end". They clearly were an over emotional bunch. Glad most of them are gone. I want to look at it one more time. It feels good to. You know I tried catching the bottom but that was ridiculous Posted these ideas 3 days apart (Bitcoin going to zero and Bitcoin going to 10,000 when it was at 8300): ***************** Part 2: Bitcoin long target reached ***************** Follow up to this: Got to target but does not mean it is over. European regulators banning bitcoin cfd right when the bagholders were about to make some money 👍 So typical and therefore so predictable People can keep criticizing me insult me but I will keep being right Already 8.5R here! This means it would cover 8 losses. I could be the biggest fool and lost 8 times in a row and still come out ahead. And it's just the start imo. Because I am waiting for the vertical move and I have no seen it yet. My trailing stop is at 4R right now.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by MrRenev
5
Gnus trend reversal - Learn to not be a bag holderTrend reversal and volume increase with significant golden cross on hourly. You guys saw what happened last time I noticed these things on this ticker. It went from $1.30 to $11. Now I am not saying that will happen again but the chart and my research on the company is very solid. I will not do the research for you but I invite you to read through ALL of the company's press releases and shareholder letters. Even the very old ones. I also invite you to go look at my previous TA's on GNUS which I have attached to the "related ideas" bar. I believe there is quite a bit of upside here but it will be volatile so do not chase. If you decide to enter do so on a pullback. (Rant below is mainly for new traders or traders who are struggling to understand how this stuff works but I am sure even experienced and profitable traders can gain something from it.) This is the most underestimated stock in the market right now. If you followed my first TA when it was $1.31 in may before the big run up, hopefully you took profit anywhere from $2 to $11. You must always take profit even if it means just selling a portion of your position, this is not a game. You must learn to manage and lower your risk. That being said gnus is far from done imo. Too much fear brought the price way down and the MM's love it because they got to reload for dirt cheap after dumping all of their shares on chasers. I sold at $3, $5 and $7 on the first run up which where my targets when I did the TA. ( It is still up and is called "GNUS breaks 4 year bearish trend with violent move on volume") if you want to check it out. Now I did not catch the top but I made a hell of a profit regardless (best swing tade of the year for me). What would have happened if I just held? I would have lost ALL of my profit. This is why you MUST always take profit. Now I am loaded back up with only a portion of the profit I made on the initial run with an avg of 1.07. I already sold a third of my new position at $1.40 to lower risk and I will sell another portion of my position if it strikes $2 and re-evaluate from there. You need to buy when the MM's are buying which they have been massively the past month according to dark pool and LVL2 data. Then you need to sell BEFORE the MM's unload. At least scale out of the trade even if you whole heartedly believe it will continue. If it doubles, do not be afraid to sell half and secure your initial investment. If it triples in a short period of time then sell all and wait to re enter later. Most of the time MUCH later. (months) Even if you get a 2% to 10% move on a stock you should consider selling and moving to the next play unless you have researched the company diligently and want to turn it into a long swing trade or investment. PROFIT IS PROFIT!!! Moves like the one you saw with gnus almost ALWAYS pull back massively. You can be a profitable trader. It is not as hard as most people make it seem. Learn to be disciplined and learn to STOP trading and investing with emotion. REPLACE THE EMOTION WITH LOGIC. REPLACE THE IMPATINCE WITH PAITENCE. MAKING THE RIGHT ENTRY IS CRUCIAL. BUY THE FEAR. SELL THE HYPE. RESEARCH DIGELENTLY. MOST IMPORTANTLY STOP CHASING!!! Do these things and watch your account turn around. I am tired of seeing good people lose money over stupid mistakes. You must learn to control your emotion and never let them control you. /rant THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR THIS IS NOT A RECOMENDATION TO BUY THIS STOCK
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn6673904
Surf the waves of investor emotionsThere all all these stages, 14 in total, but this is too detailled. Good to know and try to guess but no one is going to get them right. It is better and more accurate to see the market in 4 cycles, or 6 if we separate the top & bottom. Market participants go through those emotions every time, with stocks, gold, crypto. Speculation in currencies and commodities actually serves a purpose, I would not describe market movements the same way (except precious metals). Let me describe every emotion, starting with a trending bull market: 1- Optimism: The market is clearly in a bull market. Investors think the market is likely to continue higher. Excitement: As more investors notice the uptrend, it keeps going up, probably faster. Investors get positive confirmation bias & expect more gains. Thrill: Every one is a pro and they start making big calls, stop acting reserved/respectfully. Bulls start to celebrate. Bears are disgusted. 2- Euphoria: Day traders & Mainstreet are fully invested. Forums & investing sites get record new accounts. Everyone is a genius calling for the moon. 3- Denial: "It's ok we need to cool off". Investors start calling themselves long term investors that do not care about noise. Anxiety: Bagholders, which is the right description by now, start to really worry. The price is not going higher, the "pullback" lasted long. Fear: The price starts to go down, losses accelerate. Bears start saying "told you so" and bagholders get triggered very easilly. 4- Desperation: "Pff I hope you're happy". Baggies finally start to call it a bear market. Bulls see no light at the end of the tunnel. Panic: Bulls that saw light at the end of the tunnel realize it was a freight train. Losses start getting felt. Fund clients harass PMS. Capitulation: Gordon Brown, head of Her Majesty's Treasury, "rebalances" and sells the bottom. Bulls cannot take it anymore. 5- Depression: hopelessness - despair - nooses. Bears are empowered, forgetting they are permabears. A few will feel regret and buy at euphoria. 6- Skepticism: Investors gave up trying to time the market. They got slapped many times and are now cautious. Bad time for any short term strategies. Hope: They allow themselves to think the worse might be over, and day dream about new highs, but still very reluctant to buy (10/10 logic). Relief: Many investors are back in the green, or around breakeven, and the "scary prices" are now far behind. The pain is over they can breathe. A few practical examples People are calling the top on tech stocks and calling it euphoria. It is BIG euphoria, not small 1/14 euphoria yet, prob. Once we go higher, when the REAL crash begins, gamblers will go "last time they said", "I held the dip in the second half of 2020 every one was calling the crash", and so on. The clowns such as "captain of the ship" Dave Portnoy will get all these confirmation bias, he will probably end up rekt in the end. At this point the stock market has become a ponzi scheme. Grandma and 20 year olds will hear that some random idiot with no experience got rich, so hey they can do it too, and every ignorant beginner will join and be euphoric for a few weeks, then depressed for a few months. Late buyers will think Portnoy is an "OG" and the new Warren Buffet, I will point out his flaws and laugh at the "master the legend", I will be mocked and his fanboys will flame me, call me jealous, "why attack him? I made lots of money thanks to him". And then I will be proven right as always, and the "OGS" will vanish away. EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I'll try some small buys on the way up, short sell at 20k and skrekt every one as usual. Not sure with these annoying US tax rules. Some other ones than stocks. Already have one for BTC so no point making it again You sort of always find more or less the same thing. In Forex this does not happen the same, I have my own dynamic ever changing way to divide market cycles, does not always work, nice when it does. Gold is a bit of both world. Depends the TF. Bouncing from a level to another This is how I see it for forex, 80% of the time just stay away but who cares, there are plenty of pairs and you can also watch a secondary asset class (commodities are the most similar thing). And 20% of the time be picky, go for the good stuff. Not that complicated. Seems silly to be zooming in intensly. Days to weeks holding periods is considered short term. I do short to very short term already, but compared to the average retail trader I'm like a dinosaur that holds forever. It is just ridiculous. There is no supply and demand laws it's all noise. What do they think they are? Manual quants? Don't most quants trade stocks? Aren't most professional fx "day traders" just bankers with insider info that cheat and scam retail of their savings? Legally... I crack up imagine the average week end gambler with his chart full of ridiculous indicators on a 5 minutes time frame with huge spreads in some choppy random market try so hard to find something why oh why? The goal clearly is not money. So what is it? A challenge? Sure might find something. And I might get a stronger arm if I keep hitting my nuts with a hammer. "Well if it works for you". The goal is actually money. Ridiculous. That there are so many jokers that think they will make MORE money, not LESS. Like they'll make 1% a day gambling on noise. I find the idea of day trading absolutely repulsive: waking up at 7, drinking his little coffee, looking at his little charts, taking some gamble at a huge cost, then getting out pumpus interuptus closing everything at 4 pm or something while the market is still active and just going to watch tv and proud of his day patting himself on the back totally oblivious of how stupid he looks, a sheep that got brainwashed by brokers. Beurk. Day traders equivalent to lifting are crossfitters with their little tight green and yellow outfits, elastic bands around the head and arms and legs, little crossfit water bottle, and little 2 kg pink or green or blue dumbbells, training their injuries, lifting their little weights, making sure they stop before failure wouldn't want to hurt yourself princess. I want to throw up. Day traders are to Forex what Slipknot is to technical death metal fans. Lmao just hunting for some silly pattern they read somewhere and of course didn't bother to backtest because nah that would be too much hard work. Calling themselves speculators because they have several screens 🤢 And you can't even mock them because by the time you say "haha told you" they already blew up and quit. This isn't stupid? A big watchlist = ignore 80% of the lesser PA. Pick only the juiciest berries. There isn't much to it. Looking at the random noise is the best way to get lost. It's like chess. Simple rules. But then it takes alot to be a master. Ye that's how I see currencies. I divide it in 3: - "Skepticism": 85% of the time. Not good enough for me. Not just trend following, even other strategies. Especially counter trend. - Optimism: 14% of the time. Trend following but also anything else. When most pros are watching. Will buy falling knives, not sideways knives. - Weeee: 1% of the time. Quick. Less than 24 hours.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
5