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July PMI For 4 Major Economies (26 July 2021)Last Friday, IHS Markit released the preliminary PMI data for four major economies. Below are the key points from the individual reports. United States Services sector slowed down to a 5-month low pace due to labour shortages. Manufacturing sector expanded at record high pace. Prices of goods and services remained steep as firms pass on the high costs to consumers. Total employment growth eased to 4-month low. Business confidence declined to 7-month low mainly due to rising inflation, labour and material shortages, as well as rising concerns over the pandemic. Europe Services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 15 years due to reopening of economy from the lifting of COVID restrictions. Manufacturing sector expanded at a slightly reduced pace due to supply constraints, which led to an increase in backlogs of work. Employment continues to rise sharply. Prices for goods and services rose as demand surpassed supply. Business confidence declined to 5-month low as concerns over the COVID Delta variant grow. United Kingdom Business activities in the UK slowed down considerably due to shortages of workers and raw materials. Backlogs declined due to a slowdown in business activities. Business and consumer confidence fell due to the pandemic and Brexit-related difficulties with export sales. Employment growth eased to the slowest level since March. Australia Services sector slipped into contraction for the first time in 11 months. Renewed COVID restrictions caused by the spread of Delta variant affected demand and output in Australia. Decline in demand in the services sector led to a decline in work outstanding. Manufacturers continue to report shortages of supply, leading to an increase in work outstanding. Employment in both the services and manufacturing sectors continue to grow.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Gold bears battle key horizontal support ahead of US ADP dataGold justifies a downswing from 100-DMA and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement break around $1,757 during early Wednesday. It should, however, be noted that a horizontal line from mid-March could test the bears around $1,755 amid nearly oversold RSI conditions, suggesting a corrective pullback. Failing to do so will make the quote vulnerable to decline towards the April 13 low of $1,723 before directing the gold bears to the yearly bottom surrounding $1,675. Though, the $1,700 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the fall. During the anticipated bounce, also the much-needed before Friday’s US NFP, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,768 will act as an immediate hurdle before the 100-DMA near $1,792. Although gold buyers may gain conviction beyond $1,792, the $1,800 threshold and May 13 low, as well as February 23 top, respectively around $1,808 and $1,816, could test the metal’s further upside. Overall, gold prices brace for a bounce but today’s US ADP Employment Change data for June becomes the key as it’s a precursor to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MTradingGlobal
1
Canadian dollar rebounds, retail sales nextThe Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Thursday and posted gains. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2076, down 0.46% on the day. On the fundamental front, the Canada ADP employment report for April posted a sharp gain of  351.3 thousand, after a sizzling read of 634.8 thousand in March. The week wraps up with Canada retail sales in March on Friday (12:30 GMT). The consensus is for a respectable gain of 2.3%, after an impressive read of 4.8% in the previous release. The FOMC minutes from the April policy meeting were somewhat surprising. The minutes stated that Fed policymakers were open to begin considering a taper of bond purchases over the upcoming meetings. This development spooked Wall Street and pushed the dollar higher, on fears that the Fed could begin to tighten policy as early as next month. The admission that the Fed is open to tapering was in marked contrast to the constant message that Fed members have been sending out at practically every public appearance, with a reiteration that the Fed had no plans to taper its massive QE programme for the foreseeable future. The Fed has dismissed the uproar in the markets over a surge in inflation in April, insisting that a jump in inflation was transitory. Now it appears that Fed member Robert Kaplan, who made headlines recently when he urged the Fed to consider discussing tapering, is not a lone voice in the wilderness. At the same time, it should be remembered that the Fed officials are not saying that it plans to taper, rather that they are open to debate the subject. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2190 and 1.2275. The pair is testing support at 1.2034. Below, there is support at 1.1963.
by OANDA
Aussie slides on soft consumer confidenceThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Wednesday and recorded considerable losses. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7750, down 0.52% on the day. Investors gave the Aussie a thumbs down on Wednesday after Westpac Consumer Sentiment fell 4.8% in May. The trend of improving consumer confidence over the past three months was broken. Still, a review of the Westpac report shows a "glass half full" approach, as the report notes that the index dropped from 118.8 to 113.1, its second-highest print since April 2010. The RBA will hold a policy meeting on June 1, and the central bank will announce its plans for Yield Curve Control (YCC) and QE. The Westpac report says that the bank remains committed to monetary stimulus and this means that QE will be extended for a further A$100 billion in September, and YCC policy will shift from April 2024 to November 2o24. The bank has repeatedly said that it has no plans to tighten policy prior to 2024. The market will be treated to a dump of Australian data on Thursday. Consumer Inflation Expectations is first up (1:00 GMT), with a consensus of 3.6%, up from 3.2%. This indicator is closely watched as inflation expectations can translate into actual inflation, so a strong gain would be a signal that inflationary pressures are growing. The highlight will be Employment Change (1:30 GMT), with a small gain of 15.0 thousand expected, down from 70.7 thousand. Australia also releases Manufacturing and Services PMIs (23:00 PMI). Both sectors are in good shape, a testament to the strong Australian economy. Manufacturing PMI is projected at 59.8 and Services at 58.9, which are well into expansionary territory. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7887 and 0.7990. On the downside, there are support levels at 0.7684 and 0.7584.
by OANDA
New Zealand dollar tumbles, job data nextThe New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7133, down 88% on the day. We continue to see significant volatility from the New Zealand dollar. The currency ended the week with sharp losses of 1.18%, as strong US data lifted the US dollar. NZD/USD started the week with strong gains, but these have been erased on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the pair dropped to a low of 0.7115, its lowest level since April 14th. Investors are keeping an eye on the New Zealand employment report (22:45 GMT), which is released each quarter. Employment Change is expected to rise by 0.3% in Q1, down from 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%. A gain in Employment Change would be impressive, given that the tourist season was a shambles without any tourists allowed into New Zealand. Unless the consensus is well off the mark, the upcoming employment numbers are unlikely to have much effect on the New Zealand dollar. The Federal Reserve remains committed to an accommodative policy, and this was reiterated at last week's FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell stated that it was premature to talk about tapering its QE program. On Monday, Powell noted that the economy was doing better but was "still not out of the woods" and that the recovery was marked by racial and education gaps. The Fed's stance is not uniform, and Fed Governor Robert Kaplan, a non-voting member, made headlines on Friday when he said that Fed needed to have a conversation about tapering. As well, the market does not appear convinced that tapering is a long way off, given the strong numbers we are seeing from the US economy. If Friday's nonfarm payroll print exceeds one million (the forecast stands at 975 thousand), the Fed may come under pressure to consider tapering sooner than it expected. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.7113. This is followed by support at 0.7064. There is resistance at 0.7249 and 0.7336
by OANDA
Pound surges, UK job data loomsThe British pound has soared at the start of the week. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3961, up 0.86% on the day. The British pound is on a torrid pace. The currency jumped 0.99% last week and has padded those gains on Monday. GBP/USD is closing in on the 1.40 level, which has psychological significance. This line has been tested several times this year, and breaking above it could provide the pound with further upside momentum. The US dollar is broadly lower on Monday, as the market appears to have internalized the Fed's message that any increase in inflation will be only temporary. This has led to a significant reduction in expectations of a rate hike in the near future, which has seen the pound, euro and yen register sharp gains against the greenback. As well, with a lack of data on Monday to direct the currency markets, the focus is on sentiment, which is risk-on. This is another factor which as contributed to the dollar's retreat on Monday. The UK releases key employment data for March on Tuesday (6:00 GMT). Wage growth is projected to remain strong at 4.7%, while unemployment rolls are expected to fall to 24.5 thousand, after a sharp gain of 86.6 thousand beforehand. With the UK continuing to ease lockdown rules, the April employment numbers could be significantly better. Taking a look ahead at the economic calendar, the UK releases CPI on Wednesday (6:00 GMT). The extended lockdown in the UK has led to significant pent-up demand, which is expected to result in higher inflation. The estimate for headline inflation in March stands at 0.8%, compared to the current level of 0.4%. Earlier in the day GBP/USD broke above resistance levels at 1.3898 and 1.3956. Above, there is resistance at 1.4070. On the downside, there is support at 1.3726.
by OANDA
Will Canada job report boost CAD?The Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Friday and recorded slight gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.25% on the day. It has been a relatively quiet day week for the pair, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of key employment numbers (12:30 GMT). Canada's economy continues to grapple with the Covid-19 crisis, and the country's vaccine rollout has been on the sluggish side. At the same time, the economy is slowly finding its footing, and the Bank of Canada expects positive growth in 2021. The labor market surged in February, adding 259.2 thousand jobs. The April estimate stands at 101.5 thousand, and if the reading is within expectations, there is a strong likelihood that the Canadian dollar will respond with gains. The Canadian dollar has looked sharp of late, gaining 1.38% against the greenback in March. The economic recovery in the US has helped rejuvenate Canada's export sector, with 75% of Canadian exports going to the US. As well, the improvement in the global economy has raised the risk appetite for minor currencies like the Canadian dollar. Another key factor that has boosted the currency is the Bank of Canada's announcement that it plans to taper its purchase of government bonds. The QE programme has been a key tool in keeping interest rates low during the Covid pandemic, and the move to reduce bond purchases would make Canada the first of the G-7 members to take such a step, which could occur as early as the next policy meeting on April 21st. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is not expected to taper QE before 2022. CAD has support at 1.2521. Below, there is support at 1.2465. There is a pivot point at 1.2584. On the upside, 1.2640 was under strong pressure during the week. This is followed by resistance at 1.2703.
by OANDA
US consumer confidence surges in March to one year highThe consumer confidence index increased to 109.7 in March from 90.4 in February, which beat the economists' forecast at 96.9 Consumers’ assessment of short term outlook on salaries, employment rate and commercial activities increased , with an optimism view on the domestic consumption market MM Analysis The consumer confidence index reached 109.7 in March, which echo with the increased number of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consumer's optimism derived from 3 main factors. 1. Increased vaccinations, which indicates a rebound on commercial activities 2. Labor market on the mend, i.e. decreasing Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, increasing US Non-farm Payrolls, which would boost the retail and personal consumption growth 3. Transfer income from the American Rescue Plan In conclusion, strong consumption confidence and high saving rate would provide a strong support on economic recover, pushing up the US GDP
TVC:DXY
by MacroMicro_Global
Fed Chair Powell: We would eventually roll back support programs"The amount of fiscal support the economy has received is historically large and that's going to result in higher economic activity and hiring," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in an interview with NPR's Morning Edition, on March 25. According to Powell, the Fed is moving to deactivating the lending facilities, and will gradually roll back the amount of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities that they're buying, these moves will enable them to raise interest rates in a longer run. The market is predicting a recovery on the USD, after discerning a turning point of the expansionary monetary policy. MM Analysis Apart from the interview of Powell, the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims has also dropped from 770 thousands to 684 thousands (better than expected), showing a robust recovery from COVID-19. The senate has also extended the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) application deadline from March 31 to May 31, providing an even stronger support on the employment recovery. Besides, President Biden has named a new goal on vaccinations - 200 million in his first 100 days (Currently 130million). If the vaccination rates continues, the herd immunity schedule might be achieved in advance in June. Overall, with a strong support on vaccination and employment, we should focus on the robust economic recovery of the US when making investment decisions. The USD would recover, with a sign of the end of expansionary monetary policy.
TVC:DXY
by MacroMicro_Global
AUDCAD - Expect UpriseI would like to see a slight pullback to re-test the previous order block-level marked. The SL is protected by the daily ATR range and the TP is at a strong daily demand level. If we see price retrace slightly more I may consider setting a buy limit in hopes of getting a wick entry on this pair. The only thing that could be potentially detrimental to this idea is the AUD employment change figures on Thursday, so fingers crossed this setup will become available early in the week. COT Data - 56% Short
Long
by AlkalineFX
EURUSD Probabilities For Pullback? Mid Term PossibilitiesTechnically exhausted bulls and tonight we have Businesses & Employment reports incoming from the US (ADP, ISM, and PMI) which are some key data representing the US economic outlook. Any unexpected numbers can spark volatility on this major pair. We had a 50bp emergency rate cut which was a surprise last night from FED and the aftermath outcome for the king was not good which we can know by watching over DXY around the floor (lately did rebound upward showing some correction hope). Exhausted euro bulls and oversold dollar make me think if tonight somehow the US passes a good outlook on those key reports then it can be a chance for the greenback for retracement over a shorter time horizon around 32.80% Fibonacci which line up with last time R1 of the W period pivot. I won't say that this major pair may have a full reversal at this point by knowing that FED has probabilities of 2 more rate cuts this year. It is the nature of the market to fall and rise back harder or rise and then fall back harder on the various factors of the underlying asset. Nothing goes to hell or heaven straight forward. Last night market players have pushed price further upward on this major pair after knowing FED surprise announcement which let me think psychologically and technically once at this point that there may not be more room left upward for this pair (overbought oscillators condition too). Even if the news doesn't favor the US tonight it has already priced in finely last night so possibilities can be just opposite creating a sell-off scenario (don't forget what happened with AUDUSD even after the cut by RBA last day). Even if reports end up being good for the US then also bear have some reason to push the price lower where market is already overbought for this major so that make some sense too. In both cases, it seems we may today have some pullback in this pair hypothetically talking.
Short
by Anatta0
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCAD: Surprise on the US-Sino and Brexix FrontsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSDand #USDCAD FX Majors! GBPUSD records best day in months - Johnson-Varadkar see "pathway to deal" by end of October - Despite GDP and MAnufacturing data disappointed USDCAD down on tradewr optimism - Trump changed mind and now is open to a partial deal - Willing to and will meet He on Friday to resume talks - Cad stronger as oil supported by positive headlines (China is big oil importer) Looking forward to Canada's employment report! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
USDCAD remained heavy USDCAD has remained heavy after posting a 24-day low at 1.3191 yesterday, which extended the correction from the two-and-a-half month high that was printed on Tuesday at 1.3382. The recouperation in risk appetite in global markets, with the U.S. and China headed back to the negotiating table, has been a positive for the Canadian Dollar, and other commodity currencies. Oil prices are up over 2% from week-ago levels (WTI futures). Resistance comes in at 1.3270-73. The dual releases of U.S. and Canadian employment reports will naturally bring directional risk to USD-CAD. The August U.S. payrolls is expected to show resilience in the labour market, anticipating a a 165k August headline rise that about matches the 164k July increase, with the jobless rate ticking down to 3.6% from 3.7%, alongside gains of 0.3% for both hours-worked and hourly earnings. The Canadian employment report has us expecting a 30k gain in August after the 24.2k drop in July, with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.7%. As-expected data shouldn't have much bearing on USD-CAD. Disclaimer : This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
Should We Ignore USDCAD Head & Shoulders?Reasons for buying USDCAD: - Disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday - Price bounced off both the demand zone and support trend line - Crude Oil Futures price rejected resistance trend line Last Friday, Canadian employment posted a huge drop and unemployment increased by 0.2% to 5.7%, both missing estimates by a wide margin. Despite this, the CAD still managed to maintain some strength, supported by the rise in oil prices. But at this point of time, the chart is showing that maybe, the market has not fully priced in the weak data yet. In the 4-hour USDCAD chart, we can see that the price plunged but bounced off the demand zone and support trend line after the US announced a delay to impose tariffs. Crude Oil Futures price also approached and rejected resistance trend line. Although the announcement on tariffs is a positive news, tariffs are still set to be imposed and not totally removed. The trade war has been creating a lot of volatility in the market, so we should always keep a lookout for the latest developments and manage risks accordingly. The head and shoulders pattern may form and play out, but I don't trade solely on chart patterns, that is why in this case, I will go long on the USDCAD.
Long
by PipHike
ADP-Employment Sector vs Dow Jones-DJI, DDM, DIA Here is another chart that is using the EMPL_SEC ticker. When applying the Heikin Ashi Indicator to this data and overlaying the Dow Jones on top, you can clearly see the correlation. Employment in the U.S. is what dictates when to get in and when to get out. Please let me know what you all think of this idea and comment with any additional data I should include. My next chart will be the same idea but using the Federal Reserve Monetary Base as a Dow Jones Indicator. Thanks!
E
by jasonroy40
ARE WE HEADING TO ECONOMIC CRISIS?I don't particularly enjoy breaking the bad news but we are at record low levels for insured unemployment which is kind of scary for cycle followers. What we have seen for the last 50 years, a dip in unemployment usually followed by an economic downturn and we see a sudden jump on unemployment numbers. There are many underlying factors to this, which I will not mention here - but fundamentally it is because people start to become too loose and take their current situation for granted and start to overspent which is also encouraged by the media, government & banks! What shall we do? Assume it will happen and start planning ahead! and KEEP IT REAL!
FRED:CCSA
by Keep-it-Real
1