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USDCAD remained heavy USDCAD has remained heavy after posting a 24-day low at 1.3191 yesterday, which extended the correction from the two-and-a-half month high that was printed on Tuesday at 1.3382. The recouperation in risk appetite in global markets, with the U.S. and China headed back to the negotiating table, has been a positive for the Canadian Dollar, and other commodity currencies. Oil prices are up over 2% from week-ago levels (WTI futures). Resistance comes in at 1.3270-73. The dual releases of U.S. and Canadian employment reports will naturally bring directional risk to USD-CAD. The August U.S. payrolls is expected to show resilience in the labour market, anticipating a a 165k August headline rise that about matches the 164k July increase, with the jobless rate ticking down to 3.6% from 3.7%, alongside gains of 0.3% for both hours-worked and hourly earnings. The Canadian employment report has us expecting a 30k gain in August after the 24.2k drop in July, with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.7%. As-expected data shouldn't have much bearing on USD-CAD. Disclaimer : This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
Should We Ignore USDCAD Head & Shoulders?Reasons for buying USDCAD: - Disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday - Price bounced off both the demand zone and support trend line - Crude Oil Futures price rejected resistance trend line Last Friday, Canadian employment posted a huge drop and unemployment increased by 0.2% to 5.7%, both missing estimates by a wide margin. Despite this, the CAD still managed to maintain some strength, supported by the rise in oil prices. But at this point of time, the chart is showing that maybe, the market has not fully priced in the weak data yet. In the 4-hour USDCAD chart, we can see that the price plunged but bounced off the demand zone and support trend line after the US announced a delay to impose tariffs. Crude Oil Futures price also approached and rejected resistance trend line. Although the announcement on tariffs is a positive news, tariffs are still set to be imposed and not totally removed. The trade war has been creating a lot of volatility in the market, so we should always keep a lookout for the latest developments and manage risks accordingly. The head and shoulders pattern may form and play out, but I don't trade solely on chart patterns, that is why in this case, I will go long on the USDCAD.
Long
by PipHike
ADP-Employment Sector vs Dow Jones-DJI, DDM, DIA Here is another chart that is using the EMPL_SEC ticker. When applying the Heikin Ashi Indicator to this data and overlaying the Dow Jones on top, you can clearly see the correlation. Employment in the U.S. is what dictates when to get in and when to get out. Please let me know what you all think of this idea and comment with any additional data I should include. My next chart will be the same idea but using the Federal Reserve Monetary Base as a Dow Jones Indicator. Thanks!
E
by jasonroy40
ARE WE HEADING TO ECONOMIC CRISIS?I don't particularly enjoy breaking the bad news but we are at record low levels for insured unemployment which is kind of scary for cycle followers. What we have seen for the last 50 years, a dip in unemployment usually followed by an economic downturn and we see a sudden jump on unemployment numbers. There are many underlying factors to this, which I will not mention here - but fundamentally it is because people start to become too loose and take their current situation for granted and start to overspent which is also encouraged by the media, government & banks! What shall we do? Assume it will happen and start planning ahead! and KEEP IT REAL!
FRED:CCSA
by Keep-it-Real
1
Gold Pushes Up Against a Potential Triple TopGold started the day with a big selloff but then recovered after the FOMC and Janet Yellen announced that they would not be raising interest rates at this time. Gold is now attempting to break out of a potential triple top at $1220. If Gold can break through, then the first target would be 1241.7, the .618 fib extention from the bull run that started at the end of last year. With jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30 am EST and Non Farm Payroll on Friday at 8:30 am EST, there can be some potential big moves coming up for the precious metal. The main chart today is complete with all the indicators that I use. The first chart below is the same but with Japanese Candlesticks, called Heiken Ashi. They are really good for showing trends. As you can see, we are now into day 3 of this uptrend. On this next chart, I've removed most of the chart objects to show only the basic Bollinger Band and Moving Averages. It's clear to see that price has separated from the 6 and 8 day moving averages and has ridden the mid line of the Bollinger Band higher. Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments. I am always interested in having thoughtful discussions on price action to improve all our trading.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
LONG USDJPY: ANOTHER BOJ OUTPERFORM CASE - 28TRN GOVT STIMULUSAnother argument for the BOJ outperform case - Post BOJ Buy $Yen @MRKT 111tp: 1. We know BOJ and JPY Govt Abe/ Aso have had many meetings post-brexit and as it follows the JPY Govt have announced today that they will deliver a fiscal stimulus package of 28trn - which was to the very right of the curve (10-30 was talked about). - This in mind, imo it is rational to extrapolate that 1) surely if the JPY govt are choosing a tail end stimulus package (aggressive), BOJ will be inclined to do also? Given that it is the BOJ remit for economic targets like inflation, not the governments - BOJ wouldnt want to be seen as dropping the egg would they e.g. govt does as much as it can but BOJ only midly eases - doesnt make sense? Especially given the relationship between kuroda/ aso/ abe it would almost be impossible. - 2) The BOJ will know/ see that the JPY Govt are taking the "extreme" side of measures, so once again this puts the BOJ under-pressure to do the same as they dont want to be seen as "letting the side down" especially as it is the BOJ who really has the power to change things - the Fiscal package is rather an indicative/ nice gesture of the govts willingness to help - rather than any real hard easing when you consider the Govt package is likely to be 28trn a year but the BOJ purchases/ injects 80trn A MONTH to its monetary based in JGBs - thats 960trn a year. So 27trn govt vs 960trn BOJ - is the govt really making an impact or are they instead signalling their commitment/ putting pressure on the BOJ? I think so. Under-performance case: 1. Perhaps less meaty, but nonetheless a valid point - Japan, JPY Govt and BOJ have lived with low inflation/ deflation for the past several decades and no "extreme" action has been taken to resolve it (well not enough to fix the problem anyway) so this pressure on the BOJ we talk about above - is it real? or is it a theoretical pressure that they "Must" hit their targets? - If history predicts the future then yes, it is a theoretical economic pressure - they haven't hit the target for 20yrs so why would they do measures to hit it now? There's no public pressure, im sure theyre happy consuming at lower prices - unlike with high unemployment. - Off topic but it would be interesting to see a Japan with high Unemployment - an economic indicator that causes civil unrest (Greece riots) and is a necessity to be solved for the wellbeing of any nation - thus my bets are if unemployment was at 15-20% (similar comparison to deflation) for the past 15yrs something drastic WOULD have been done a long time ago, or be done on Friday to fix it. After all, theres no driver to fix something that doesnt really need fixing is there? Think about the last time you went to extreme measures to fix something that wasn't much of an issue...
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
11
Gold: Triangle still unresolved; Entry levels refinedThe US employment report was mixed. Payrolls posted a 215,000 jobs gain, around June's level, while analysts had expected 225,000. The previous number was upwardly revised to 231,000. The unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, while wage growth came out at 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in the previous month. According to a latest Reuters poll, the median probability for septermber rate hike estimated by US primary dealers is 60% vs 55% in June. The number for December meeting stands at 80%. 9 of 19 dealers expect two rate hikes this year. The short-term reaction has been very volatile, with violent swings in both directions. The price of Gold has tested both trendlines that form the Triangle pattern. There is a clear 5-wave advance that usually sets a new uptrend. The key support cluster is projected @1089. Our approach is to wait for a 4-hour candle to close either above 1099 to generate a buy signal; or below 1082 for a sell signal. While the intraday chart to the right suggests higher prices based on last swing's wave structure, the long-term trend is, obviously, down.
FX:XAUUSD
by Nickonomics
2
GBP/USD Accelerates higher on weak ADP reportEmployment in the US private sector disappointed last month, shattering hopes that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. The number of employees increased by 185,000 in July compared to the 229,000 booked in June, according to ADP. On Friday, the non-farm payroll report will provide further hints of labor market development, with analysts expecting a gain of 220,000 people added to the workforce, while the unemployment rate should stay intact at 5.3%. The news spurred US Dollar sell-off with GBPUSD trading near session highs at 1.5646. Technically, there is an Inverse Head&Shoulders pattern developing. Its right shoulder took the form of a 'bear trap', which adds to British Pound strength. Please, mind the heavy event risk on Thursday. The Bank of England meeting will be closely watched following a series of comments from MPC members, including Governor Carney, that the first rate hike since the crisis is moving closer. In conjunction with Thursday’s interest rate decision, for the first time we also have the simultaneous release of the MPC meeting minutes and August Quarterly Inflation Report, followed by a press conference. This deluge of information flow has been dubbed 'Super Thursday' among analysts.
by Nickonomics
Gold: Triangle Thrust UpdateAn update to our previous idea (see link below). An unexpectedly disappointing gauge of employment costs in the US brought strong bearish pressure on USD, shooting the EUR/USD well above the $1.10 level, as well as lifting Gold price up to $1100 handle. No trendline break in XAUUSD yet. The Employment Cost Index showed the lowest increase in workers' pay since 1982, spurring general disappointment. As the market remains strongly sensitive to the labor market and inflation worries related to wages, such indices are still monitored due to possible Federal Reserve tightening steps in September. Wages, making up approximately 70% of this index, rose 2.1% over the year in June, lower than the post-recession high of 2.6% at the beginning of the year. The gain in wages and benefits during the second quarter was the weakest since 1981, growing only 0.1%.
FX:XAUUSD
by Nickonomics