BTC LONG Speculation, no major corrections until 75k-80k?Since the ETF, it seems to have been a sell the news, followed by buying the dip event at the 100D MA.
Dips since the start of the bull run, even before the launch of the BTC ETF, have averaged ~20% followed by a continued massive bull run. Some, including myself, speculated a break of this trend of 20% dips (breaking 38k) followed by a continued sell-off into 34k or even 30k. The ETF launch was a perfect event to sell along with outflows from the GBTC takeover until recently.
Assuming this pattern of 100% returns after a 20% dip, technically BTC can reach ~80k. Considering the shortened duration to reach such returns, we may reach 80k sooner than expected in this cycle.
Note that we have recently (in the past few weeks) broken a multi-cycle trendline that acted as resistance roughly two months before the FTX collapse. So it could validate prices rising on top of ETF inflows increasing. Note that upon reaching 74k-80k, it is likely a significant pullback within 30k-40k will occur, given the lack of test of structure that BTC normally does pre-halving.
This idea is invalidated with a daily close under 49.5k. Closing over 59k will likely have the rally continue toward 74k, with any price beyond it being risky to hold without selling, likely maxing out at 80k roughly the end of March. Closing under 44k would be bearish enough to consider going to 30k.
Overall, this idea is very speculative and assumes a trend continuation that breaks BTC's normal patterns/expectations of price movement. Upward price movement is 34%-44% toward 74k and 80k, with a downward price movement of 42+% toward 31k, so entering now is dabbling more in the middle, slightly favoring bears in the long run. This is likely all that's left for BTC to continue the rally past ATHs assuming it can hold 50k before a significant correction. You could even argue of strong resistance ~57k-59k, but inflows are too strong, as is the narrative of RWA and the Tokenization of Financial Assets .
Be weary that there are still other risks (cyber pandemic, bank runs, civil unrest, real estate, labor market participation/retraining, shipping routes in the Middle East, control of rare earth minerals/semiconductors) that have been deferred thanks to speculation/attention of tech around AI, and may conveniently come back. I'm not sure when, but I'd speculate starting the second half of 2025 to 2026.
Trades:
Long 55k
SL 49.5k
TP 74k (close or by the end of March)
Short 77k
SL 85k
TP 60k, 45k, 35k (close)
