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Endofrally

$SPX - Relief rally might be over... back to under $4,000 soon? SPX has been experiencing a relief raly after the weekly and the daily charts were oversold however it has keey resistance levels are $4.2k and I expect to come back down as the ADX is still in the reset mode. Bearish Scenario Please be cautious as this rally might be short-lived. We might need to come back down to $3.6k and consolidate further before a full reversal. Bullish Scenario Even in a bullish scenario we still need the daily momentum indicators to drop down a bit and reset with price creating a new higher low/finding support around $4k. Once we climb above $4.2k with momentum from the weekly and the monthly timeframes we should have another bull cycle. However, this might take at least a few month or worst case in early 2023.
TVC:SPX
by subtlepapi
SPX: Flashing cautionary signals (again).My cautious call of 2 weeks ago may have been premature (see link below). However, we are now seeing additional cautionary signals on the SPX : 1. Two consecutive down days at the beginning of this week; 2. Visible break yesterday on the index (gap down); 3. Reasonable volume on the downside; 4. Traded and closed below SMA10; 5. Tech indicators turning (MACD, RSI, Stock); 6. RSI coming from very overbought levels >85; 7. Treasury yields picking up; 8. Some divergence/topping signs from tech market leaders; 9. High-volume surge in the VIX (please see chart below); 10. VIX broke/closed above two resistance levels in a day. Current earnings should bring further steam to this market, either for a highly-expected consolidation or for a rebound. In this context, am warming up to buying downside exposure in one -or multiple- of the following ways: 1. Reducing portfolio risk by taking selective profits/losses; 2. Buying puts on selected stocks ahead of earnings; 3. Shorting the market outright (SPY, QQQ); 4. Buying volatility outright (VXX). The rest of this week should be interesting and followed closely.
SP:SPXShort
by HAL9000