Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ filled the gap and closed lower after facing resistance. As mentioned last Friday, the 21,911 level was a likely resistance zone due to the nature of the gap. This resistance played a significant role, and coincidentally, concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump on Mexico and Canada intensified, leading to a decline into the afternoon session.
Since the monthly candle has closed, let's first analyze the monthly chart. Last month, I mentioned that a decline to the 5-day moving average (20,880) was possible before a rebound, and indeed, the index rebounded from 20,700. Given that the price sequentially bounced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages after breaking out of the monthly range, this month presents a challenging situation for determining direction. While further upside is possible, the monthly MACD may attempt to reduce its gap with the signal line, making a strong rally less likely. If a sharp rally occurs, the upper Bollinger Band at 22,736 should be considered as resistance. On the downside, the monthly 5-day moving average at 21,084 may be tested this month. Since the market could move in either direction, chasing momentum on the monthly chart should be approached with caution.
On the weekly chart, a sell signal remains active, with the MACD failing to cross above the signal line, suggesting that further downside remains likely.
On the daily chart, while the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, today's bearish candle close may trigger a sell signal, opening the possibility of a move toward the lower Bollinger Band and the 120-day moving average. If the MACD does not break down and instead turns higher while the price rises, it will be crucial to see if the 21,911 gap is decisively broken and closed with a bullish candle.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal is still in place, and the index remains in a large range. Buying on dips remains favorable, but if a sell signal appears, the current moving average setup suggests a high probability of sharp declines.
This week, Google's earnings report on Tuesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday are key events to watch. Additionally, with the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies increasing market volatility, traders should manage leverage carefully and remain cautious.
Crude Oil
Oil closed near breakeven but surged in after-hours trading following reports that Canadian energy imports may face new tariffs.
On the monthly chart, oil remains within a range, but the MACD is persistently attempting to cross above the signal line. Last month’s breakout from a four-month consolidation range suggests that buying on dips at the 3-day moving average may be a favorable strategy.
On the weekly chart, the buy signal remains intact. Despite some pullback, the large gap between the MACD and the signal line suggests that a sharp breakdown is unlikely.
On the daily chart, as previously mentioned, the $72 level remains a strong buy zone. The MACD is in a steep downtrend, but given the presence of prior demand zones and the 240-day moving average acting as support, a technical rebound could be strong after two weeks of declines.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has bounced off the signal line, forming a bullish divergence, making long positions more favorable. Given the characteristics of the 240-day moving average, a rebound toward $74.50 is technically reasonable.
Overall, buying on dips remains a preferred approach, but market volatility is increasing due to geopolitical uncertainties, so trade cautiously.
Gold
Gold pulled back as profit-taking emerged after a sharp rally, closing lower after finding support at the 3-day moving average.
On the monthly chart, gold formed a strong bullish breakout candle, making dips toward the 3-day moving average (2,770) a favorable buying opportunity this month. A pullback to this level should be expected.
On the weekly chart, a buy signal appeared last week, but the MACD’s lower value compared to the previous peak suggests a potential bearish divergence. This means that despite breaking above prior highs, if the MACD fails to confirm with strong upward momentum, the rally may weaken. Caution is advised when chasing momentum.
On the daily chart, today is a key day for buy setups near the 5-day moving average, making a pullback likely. However, the broader trend remains bullish, so rather than shorting, traders should look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks at key support levels.
On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance and declining. The MACD is at a high level, meaning even if a bearish crossover occurs, attempts to move higher may persist. Buying near support remains the preferred approach.
With Trump’s increasing policy activity and China’s Deepseek issues, market volatility is expected to rise. Always prioritize risk management and trade safely. Wishing you a successful trading month!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Bullish Market
-Buy : 21,530 / 21,460 / 21,420 / 21,370 / 21,290
-Sell : 21,590 / 21,690 / 21,775 / 21,850 / 21,930
Crude Oil - Range Market
-Buy : 73.50 / 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00
-Sell : 74.50 / 75.00 / 76.00 / 76.40
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy : 2,825 / 2,820 / 2,812 / 2,807 / 2,804
-Sell : 2,841 / 2,846 / 2,852 / 2,856 / 2,860
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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