Energy Commodities
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
USOIL: Weak Market & Bearish Continuation
Balance of buyers and sellers on the USOIL pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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Natural Gas is Ready For a Commercially Driven Bull MoveNatural gas is nicely setup for longs if we get a confirmed bullish trend change on the daily.
-Extreme commercial long positioning (most long they've been in the last 3 years) - bullish.
-Investment advisor sentiment very bearish - which is actually bullish.
-Undervalued vs gold & treasuries - bullish.
-ADX under 40 while commercials got extremely long - bullish.
-Bullish spread divergence between front month and next month out - bullish.
-Small specs at extreme in short positioning - bullish.
-True seasonal & some cycles are not supportive of going long, but these are the last things I look at. Enough indicators are supporting longs that I'm not going to worry about this.
-Bullish momentum divergence has triggered on some high timeframes, implying much higher prices are on the cards for Natty. There is also some smaller bullish weekly divergence currently setup (but not confirmed).
Have a good week.
WEEKLY FORECAST OCT 26th: SELL US & UK CRUDE OIL In this video, we will analyze the CRUDE OIL markets in the US and UK, looking through the lens of ICT Concepts.
Price has traded up into a bearish FVG, so therefore I am BEARISH. Price can turn neutral in this geopolitical environment, but maybe the inside bar will act as a harbinger of bearish things to come.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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May profits be upon you.
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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USOIL Will Go Higher! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 71.62.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 73.20 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL)Asset Class: Indices
Income Type: Daily
Symbol: BOIL
Trade Type: Long
Trends:
Short Term: Up
Long Term: UP
Trade idea:
-Price rejection from a major Daily demand zone, forming an upward channel.
-Waited for a demand zone to form on a lower time frame (30m) .
-TP set at the SZs with a 7:1 RRR
-Consider trailing your SL or place different orders for each target.
-Apply proper risk management. max position size is 1% of your capital.
Set-Up Parameters:
Entry: 8.92
Stop: 8.53
TP 11.67 (7:1)
!!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry.
Trade management:
**When price hits 1:1 or T1, consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback for a risk free trade.
**Disclaimer**:
The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
WTI CRUDE OIL Every pull back inside this Channel Up is a buy.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is trading inside a 1hour Channel Up.
Having crossed above the 1hour MA50, it is now expected to support this new bullish wave.
The 1hour MACD is already on a Bullish Cross, confirming the bullish wave.
Buy and target 73.50 (+5.73% rise).
Previous chart:
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Mag 7 Earnings - Something will Break (Ceiling or Floor?)797 stocks reporting earnings next week
Notables include
GOOGL
LLY
CAT
META
MSFT
COIN
AMZN
AAPL
XOM
CVX
MA
V
$15 trillion in market cap at play as the US markets are still very close to all-time highs with a melty-uppy vibe. I'm cautiously bullish and could certainly see the highs get blown off with strong earnings momentum dominating the sentiment. I could also see Mag 7 disappoint investors with "not enough growth" and any pullbacks on Mag 7 will certain drag on the entire market.
Survive next week, then it's onto the US Election, FED, Non-Farm Payroll. No big deal, it's just trading :)
Thanks for watching!!!
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) ) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 69.33 which is a swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 68.46 which is a level that aligns under a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 71.93 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Will the Perfect Storm in Natural Gas Markets Lead to a New EnerIn an era of unprecedented global energy transformation, the natural gas market stands at a critical juncture where geopolitical tensions, technological advancement, and infrastructure development converge to create a potentially game-changing scenario. The ongoing Middle East crisis, particularly the Israel-Iran tensions threatening the Strait of Hormuz, could reshape energy flows and trigger a cascade of effects across interconnected global energy markets, potentially forcing a fundamental reassessment of natural gas's role in the global energy mix.
A seismic shift is approaching in North American markets with LNG Canada's anticipated 2025 launch, which promises to revolutionize Canadian gas pricing dynamics and global market access. This transformation coincides with an extraordinary surge in potential demand from AI and data centers, projected to consume between 3 and 30 billion cubic feet per day of additional North American gas. Such technological evolution, coupled with Asia's growing appetite for cleaner energy sources, suggests a structural reformation of traditional gas flow patterns and pricing mechanisms.
The convergence of these factors presents both challenges and opportunities for market participants. While weather patterns and storage dynamics continue to influence short-term price formation, longer-term strategic considerations are increasingly dominated by infrastructure development, market access, and geopolitical risk management. As the industry adapts through strategic hedging, infrastructure investment, and consolidation, the natural gas market appears poised for a period of dynamic evolution that could fundamentally alter its global value proposition and establish a new paradigm in energy markets.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Trend Continues
WTI Crude Oil may continue falling after a test of a key daily resistance.
A breakout of a support line of a bearish flag gives us a strong bearish confirmation.
With a high probability, the price will drop to 68.9 level.
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WTI turns sharply lowerCrude oil prices were over 3% higher this week, but as i mentioned in my previous post, the risks remained tilted towards the downside following a 9% drop the previous week. Lo and behold, WTI has now turned sharply lower after testing broken support between $71.50 to $72.50 area in the last couple of days. At the time of writing, it was back to the $70.00 level, which, if breached decisively, could pave the way for more losses in the days ahead.
Middle East tensions have slightly stabilized as Israel has so far refrained from attacking Iran and has said it will not target its nuclear facilities. However, the situation remains volatile due to Israel’s ongoing operations in Lebanon, which has reignited concerns about disrupted oil supply.
Meanwhile, the oil market is also cautious about a possible Trump victory in the US election, as his policy of boosting oil production could lead to oversupply and further price declines.
by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
USOIL Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 71.32.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 75.37 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USOIL SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USOIL pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 67.89 level.
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GASOLINE Bottom confirmed. 3-month rally ahead.Gasoline (RB1!) formed a confirmed technical bottom on the 3.5-year Support Zone and the Lower Lows of the Falling Wedge. At the same time, the 1W RSI bounced from oversold territory (below 30.00) back above its MA trend-line, confirming a bullish reversal.
The previous Lower Lows bottom reached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result we remain committed to our long-term Target of 2.600 (below also the Lower Highs trend-line), which we expect to get hit within the next 3 months.
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