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Why are Interest rates falling? Time to buy? We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates. Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom. Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation? Is the bond market pricing in a recession? I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness. Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper. This drives the disinflationary narrative. I think its to early to tell whether this decline is from demand or global weakness.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ/GOLD Plan Your Trade - New Week Aug 12~16+Thank you for all the boosts and likes. I'm trying my best to deliver informative and intelligent information for traders to learn to make their own decisions. My goal is to teach you the skills to become better at identifying and selecting better opportunities for profits. Not to be right all the time - that's impossible. But, to learn to manage risk levels, trade more efficiently, plan your trades, and to execute better trades with detailed information and guidance. I hope I'm achieving those goals for all of you. Some of the comments have been wonderfully supportive. Of course I'm not right 100% of the time - no one is. I'm simply trying to provide the best analysis I can to help you plan and prepare for better trades. This video discusses what I expect from the markets over the next 5~10+ days. I believe the markets need to retest support before shifting into the new Vortex Rally phase. We need to watch Gold/Silver, the Transportation Index, Crude Oil, the US-Dollar, and how the SPY/QQQ react over the next 5+ days. It will be interesting to see how things play out. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Weekend Russia-Ukraine Update for Natural Gas Traders in FX MarkHey everyone, I wanted to share some important updates with you regarding recent developments that could significantly impact our natural gas trades. In the past few days, Ukraine's attack on the Sudzha gas transfer station in Russia's Kursk region has raised some serious concerns. As you know, the Sudzha station is a critical point for gas flow from Russia to Europe, and any disruption here could directly affect our natural gas trading. It's something we all need to keep a close eye on. To give you some context, Gazprom supplied approximately 14.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas through Sudzha in 2023. This volume accounts for about 4.5% of the EU's annual consumption and nearly half of all Russian gas exports to Europe. Since the beginning of the year, the daily gas flow through this station has remained above 40 million cubic meters. These numbers highlight just how vital Sudzha is for European gas supply. The main function of the Sudzha gas metering station is to record gas consumption and measure the quality indicators of the gas. The gas flow is measured using two primary methods: variable pressure drop and the more precise ultrasonic method, which measures the propagation speed of ultrasonic waves in the gas flow. The station is equipped with converters, pressure and temperature sensors, shut-off valves, and other equipment essential for accurate gas flow measurement. In addition, the station features an automated control system that collects, processes, and transmits data on gas parameters. This system is responsible for overseeing the operation process and maintaining accurate records. If there’s an issue at the station, not only would the gas flow be disrupted, but tracking the quality and quantity of the gas would also become much more difficult. Given these details, it’s crucial for us to closely monitor what's happening in the gas markets and adjust our strategies accordingly. As uncertainty increases, so do the potential risks and opportunities, so I strongly advise you to carefully set your stops in your trades. Wishing you all a profitable week ahead! CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS FOREXCOM:NATURALGAS
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by TheCryptoPharaoh
4
USOIL Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear friends, USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 77.00 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal -75.35 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILShort
by AnabelSignals
1
USOIL Will Go Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 76.949. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 70.251 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
2
Natural Gas...bullish turnaround!Nat gas has carved out a nice potential base to move higher. We have seen a failed breakdown whcih usualkly indicates a bullish reversal. They say the biggest moves come from failed patterns an it certainly looks like a failed bearish trendline break. If this is the case, Nat gas has a nice 15-20% upside before things get really interesting. We may be witnessing a weekly inverse head & shouldrs pattern developing. Time will tell but we are long.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
WTI USOIL 12H - Oil Edges Down on Thursday WTI Crude Oil Futures Dip Amid Geopolitical Concerns WTI crude oil futures fell to $74.80 per barrel on Thursday, following a 2.8% increase in the previous session. Investors are concerned about potential retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel, in response to recent assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Despite these tensions, Iran's president hinted at possible diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation during a call with France. Oil Edges Down on Thursday Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend, the price should stabilize above $75.35, targeting $77.94 and potentially $79.49. Bearish Scenario: Stability below $75.35, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, could lead to a drop towards $73.90 and $72.80. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: $75.35 - Support Levels: $73.90, $72.80, $69.80 - Resistance Levels: $77.94, $79.49, $80.73 Today's Expected Range: The price is anticipated to move between the support at $72.72 and the resistance at $77.95. previous idea:
TVC:USOIL
by SroshMayi
1
USOIL ( BETWEEN TWO TURNING LEVEL ) ( 4H )USOIL HELLO TRADERS currently price between two turning level by breaking each level determine the direction , for know the price trading above turning level (2) at 74.74 , remain this level it will be attempt to reach a turning level (1) at 76.25 . Tendency, the price inside two turning level around ( 74.74 & 76.25$) . Upward Zone : in order see increase , the price need breaking turning level (1) at 76.25 , by closing 4h candle above it , easily to reach a resistance level (1) around 78.53 , remain this level indicates the price trying to reach of a resistance level (2) at 80,75 . Downward Zone: by breaking turning level (2) around 74.74 , the price dropping to reach a support level (1) at 72.82, to confirm downward , gold need breaking support level (1) by open 4h candle below it to reach a support level (2) at 71.81 . TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 78.53 , 80.75 . SUPPORT LEVEL : 72.82 , 71.81 .
TVC:USOIL
by ArinaKarayi
GASOLINE Strong buy opportunity.Last time we looked into Gasoline (RB1!) was exactly 2 months ago (June 06, see chart below) and the price action gave us the most optimal buy opportunity on the 0.618 Fibonacci level and hit straight on our 2.6000 Target: Since then, Gasoline declined aggressive along with most of the energy sector and even broke below the 0.618 Fib on Monday. This however is technically the ideal long-term buy entry as not only the dominant pattern remains a 2-year Channel Down but also in symmetrical terms, it appears that the price action may be on similar levels as the June 23 2023 Low. As a result, we turn bullish on Gasoline again, targeting the Internal Lower Highs trend-line at 2.7500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
1