USOIL H1 TECHANICAL ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION) The Winning Hubhello trader's. what do you think about gold.
current price: 77.00
So Some Support and Resistance i Find in The Daily Chart
Let's Find out on H1 Time Frame
we have First Support is the today Low it's 76.00 then 75.00 and The first Resistance is 78.50 and then demand zone 75.00
resistance zone: 77.80 / 78.50
support zone: .76.00 / 75.00
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Energy Commodities
WTI Oil H1 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 77.07 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 75.07 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 79.87 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Will US sanctions on the Russian oil industry continue to drive
Oil prices surged to their highest point in five months following the US announcement of its intention to impose stricter sanctions on Russia's oil industry. Countries like China and India, previously reliant on Russian crude oil imports, are actively pursuing new sources of oil supply in the Middle East and Africa. Furthermore, the substantial surge in demand for heating oil, driven by the cold spell sweeping across the US and Europe, is likely to exert consistent upward pressure on oil prices.
USOIL sustains an uptrend and continues to test 77.00. Both EMAs are widening the gap and showing strong bullish momentum. If USOIL breaches above the current high of 77.80, the price could gain upward momentum toward 79.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaks below its support at 74.30 and EMA21, the price may fall further to its following support at 72.00.
OIL & The Buffet TradeMARKETSCOM:OIL & The Buffet Trade
From a Technical View I see the Inverse Head & Shoulder playing out.
Current economic catalyst may be the reason why this very common technical pattern plays out, I'll be trading it on the way up.
The GOAT Buffet is all in NYSE:OXY which says a lot.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after facing resistance at the 5-day moving average. As mentioned yesterday, selling at the 5-day moving average was an effective strategy, and since it touched the 5-day line during the pre-market, sell-side trades were easier throughout the day. The daily chart shows continued selling pressure with six consecutive bearish candles. As discussed, it's important to monitor the 120-day moving average support and keep an eye on a potential overshoot down to the 20,300 area.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the Signal line (golden cross), but selling pressure persisted. While a death cross has not yet formed, if it does, it could trigger a third wave of selling. Conversely, a failure to form a death cross could lead to a rebound, potentially forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Avoid chasing sell-offs and focus on range-bound trading strategies. Additionally, today’s CPI release could cause a lower wick and a bullish reversal candle, so caution is advised.
Oil
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance near its recent high. The $79 level remains a strong resistance zone, and the significant divergence from the moving averages makes it difficult to break above easily. Some correction was expected in this area, and while the price has pulled back, it remains far from the 5-day moving average, suggesting the potential for further declines.
The daily chart indicates support in the $75–$76 range, and a drop to this area should not be ruled out. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal on the MACD has appeared, but there is still divergence from the zero line, making buying at major support levels a preferable strategy. Selling near $79 remains valid. Additionally, oil inventory data is scheduled for release today, which may influence the market.
Gold
Gold ended with a doji candle, forming a small range after digesting the PPI data. Today’s CPI release is expected to provide a clearer direction for the market. Recent declines in expectations for additional rate cuts have been supporting gold prices. As today’s inflation data impacts Treasury yields, gold’s direction will likely hinge on the bond market's response.
If gold forms a bullish candle today, both the MACD and Signal lines may rise above the zero line, continuing the bullish trend. Conversely, if gold closes with a bearish candle, it is likely to remain within the $2,625–$2,725 range for the time being. On the 240-minute chart, support around $2,680 is key, with the MACD potentially attempting to cross above the Signal line. Failure to form a golden cross could result in further declines. Focus on buying during dips before the CPI release, as this is the most favorable approach today.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bearish Market
-Buy Levels: 20,840 / 20,780 / 20,745 / 20,570
-Sell Levels: 21,015 / 21,070 / 21,120 / 21,190 / 21,320
Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 77.50 / 76.90 / 76.50 / 75.70
-Sell Levels: 78.60 / 79.10 / 79.65 / 80.10
Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,683 / 2,674 / 2,666 / 2,661 / 2,654
-Sell Levels: 2,704 / 2,712 / 2,717 / 2,723 / 2,729
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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WTI Crude Oil Probes Trend Line Resistance at 5-Month HighsChart Analysis:
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a pivotal juncture as it tests the long-term descending trendline resistance, while short-term momentum remains firmly bullish.
1️⃣ Downtrend Resistance (Red Line):
Prices are testing the multi-month descending trendline resistance near $78.
A breakout above this level could signal a shift in the broader bearish structure.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): Rising steadily at $70.51, providing dynamic support for the recent uptrend.
200-day SMA (red): Flattening around $75.06, aligning with the key breakout zone.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 72.05, indicating overbought conditions, which could precede a short-term pullback.
MACD: Bullish momentum is intact, with the MACD line above the signal line and accelerating in positive territory.
What to Watch:
A sustained break above the descending trendline and the 200-day SMA could pave the way for a test of $82-$85 resistance levels.
Overbought RSI warrants caution; traders should monitor for bearish divergences or signs of exhaustion.
Failure to break above resistance could see prices retrace toward the 50-day SMA or $74 support.
WTI Crude is at a critical crossroads, where a breakout could signal a trend reversal, while failure to sustain above resistance might reinforce the longer-term bearish bias.
-MW
USOIL: Key Levels and Trend Direction AnalysisUSOIL Analysis
The price has stabilized above the pivot line and closed the daily candle above it, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend gradually toward 75.35. A retest of 72.75 is possible before pushing up again.
On the other hand, a 4-hour candle closing below 72.74 would confirm a bearish trend, targeting 71.78.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 73.40
Resistance Levels: 74.40, 75.35, 76.10
Support Levels: 72.74, 71.78, 70.50
Trend outlook:
Bullish: While above 72.75
Bearish: If 72.74 is broken
Navigating the Oil Market volatile prices Crude oil prices have been on a roller coaster ride in recent times, influenced by a multitude of factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and OPEC+ production decisions. Let's break down the key elements affecting the current oil market:
The Russia-Ukraine War and Sanctions
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been a significant driver of oil price volatility. Russia is a major oil exporter, and the Western sanctions imposed on the country have disrupted global supply chains. This has led to supply concerns and consequently, higher oil prices.
OPEC+ Production Cuts
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have been actively managing oil production levels to stabilize
the market. Their decision to cut production has had a direct impact on increasing oil prices.
This move aims to balance supply and demand, ensuring oil prices remain at profitable levels for member countries.
US Oil Production and Inventory Levels
The United States is a major oil producer, and its production levels and inventory change
s influence global oil prices. While US production has increased, it hasn't been enough
to offset the supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and OPEC+ production cuts.
Lower US oil inventories have also contributed to the upward pressure on prices.
Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back to Back Annual Losses Gusgraph.com
Global Economic Recovery and Demand
The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased demand for oil. As economies reopen and travel picks up, the demand for fuel has surged, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
Other Factors
In addition to the above factors, other elements such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, currency fluctuations, and speculative trading can also impact oil prices.
In conclusion, the current oil price surge is a result of a complex interplay between geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and economic indicators. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, OPEC+ production cuts, and robust global economic recovery are the primary drivers pushing oil prices higher.
Navigating the Oil Market: A Day Trader's Guide
The oil market is a dynamic and complex arena, presenting both significant opportunities and formidable challenges for day traders. Understanding the key drivers of oil price fluctuations is crucial for developing effective trading strategies.
Key Factors Influencing Oil Prices:
Geopolitical Events:
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia have significantly disrupted global oil supply chains.
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region, can also trigger price volatility.
OPEC+ Production Decisions:
The decisions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) regarding production cuts or increases have a direct and significant impact on oil prices.
Global Economic Growth:
Strong economic growth translates to increased demand for energy, driving up oil prices. Conversely, economic slowdowns can lead to lower demand and lower prices.
US Oil Production and Inventories:
Changes in US oil production and inventory levels play a crucial role in influencing global oil prices.
Currency Fluctuations:
The value of the US dollar against other major currencies can impact oil prices, as oil is typically priced in US dollars.
Day Trading Opportunities in the Oil Market:
The volatile nature of the oil market presents several trading opportunities for skilled day traders:
Identifying Trends:
Identifying and trading with the prevailing trend (uptrend, downtrend, or sideways) is crucial. Technical analysis tools like moving averages and trend lines can be valuable in this regard.
Capitalizing on News Events:
Anticipating and reacting to news events, such as OPEC+ meetings, geopolitical developments, and economic data releases, can provide significant trading opportunities.
Volatility Trading:
High volatility periods can create short-term trading opportunities, but require careful risk management and a robust trading plan.
Scalping:
Scalping involves taking small profits on small price movements. This strategy requires quick decision-making and a deep understanding of market dynamics.
Key Considerations for Day Trading Oil:
High Volatility: The oil market is known for its volatility, which can present both significant opportunities and risks.
Risk Management: Implementing strict stop-loss orders and position sizing strategies is crucial to manage risk effectively.
Fundamental Analysis: Stay informed about geopolitical events, economic data, and industry news to make informed trading decisions.
Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD to identify entry and exit points.
Emotional Control: The volatile nature of the oil market can trigger emotional responses. It's crucial to maintain discipline and avoid impulsive trading decisions.
CRUDE OIL CORRECTION AHEAD|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL is about to retest a key structure level of 80.14$
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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Weekly Market Forecast Jan 13, 2025This is an outlook for the week of Jan 13-17th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices look set to move lower this week, with the possible exception of the DOW.
The metals are rallied on Friday, and may continue upward this week, despite a relatively strong USD.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower with a lower wick, as anticipated, with a downward move at the start of the week. As mentioned, the area below 20,700 was a potential support zone for a rebound, and the market successfully bounced back. On the daily chart, the MACD and Signal lines have both dropped below the zero line, marking the first time the MACD has fallen below zero since September last year.
Yesterday’s analysis focused on trading around the 3-day moving average; today, trading at the 5-day moving average is expected. A range-bound movement between the 3-day and 5-day moving averages is likely, and if the pre-market touches the 5-day moving average first, it will provide a favorable opportunity for sell-side strategies. While it is uncertain whether the 120-day moving average will be tested for support on the downside, the MACD's dip below zero suggests the potential for accelerated selling. If an overshooting move occurs on the downside, be prepared for a possible drop to the 20,300 area.
The market may consolidate at support levels to form a base before reversing its trend. Monitoring the alignment of short-term moving averages on lower timeframes can help identify the reversal point. On the 240-minute chart, selling pressure continues, and the MACD has yet to cross the Signal line in a golden cross. A strong golden cross could trigger a sharp rebound, but if the MACD turns downward again, further declines are possible. Be prepared for both scenarios and adjust accordingly.
Oil
Crude oil closed higher, supported by potential U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports. The price has risen to the $79 previous high level, and with the significant divergence from the 5-day moving average, corrections could occur at any time. On the monthly chart, oil has reached the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that managing risk with sell-side strategies at the highs may be more effective than chasing prices upward.
On the 240-minute chart, the RSI remains in overbought territory, suggesting that the current trend may continue. However, short sell strategies should be approached cautiously and with short timeframes. The MACD and Signal lines show significant divergence and steep angles, indicating the potential for step-like upward movements even during corrections. Focus on buying at major support levels during pullbacks, but remain cautious as sharp declines could occur unexpectedly. A conservative perspective is advised.
Gold
Gold closed lower, facing resistance from selling pressure driven by rising Treasury yields. On the weekly chart, the MACD has turned downward, signaling stronger selling pressure. The daily chart shows the MACD above the zero line, but the Signal line has yet to cross above zero, suggesting a consolidation phase as the MACD moves closer to the Signal line. This places gold in a broad range-bound scenario.
Ahead of today’s PPI and tomorrow’s CPI releases, gold is expected to trade sideways. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared, but with the MACD and Signal lines above zero and diverging, sharp declines are less likely. Instead, support and consolidation around the 2,680 level are more probable. Focus on range-trading strategies, and exercise caution around the PPI release.
Market Conditions
The market is currently unsettled due to corrections in big tech stocks, Trump’s inauguration, and declines in quantum computing-related stocks. The VIX index is also showing a sharp upward trend, indicating heightened volatility. Be mindful of risk management under these conditions, and have a successful trading day!
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bearish Market
-Buy Levels: 20,990 / 20,890 / 20,840 / 20,740
-Sell Levels: 21,160 / 21,200 / 21,300 / 21,350
Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 77.70 / 76.60 / 75.70 / 74.50
-Sell Levels: 79.45 / 79.90
Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,677 / 2,672 / 2,666 / 2,661 / 2,654
-Sell Levels: 2,692 / 2,705 / 2,712 / 2,717
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are set as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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CRUDE OIL Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is trading in a
String uptrend but it is
Locally overbought as
After Oil hit the horizontal
Resistance level of 80.64$
We will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Long waited Bulls finally arrive to the Oil MarketsWith inflationary Pressures as high as ever and the expansion of conflicts worldwide but mainly In or around Oil-producing Countries , added to that the growing fears of a US-Chinese Conflict in and about the Island State of Taiwan. all these prospects and Events are driving factors for a surge in oil prices, Yet as devoted technical analysts we believe that world events are just the reasoning behind whatever the charts want to go. So a bullish analysis was the one that the oil had, the Buying zones of the low 60s worked as resting recliner chair for the oil for the good of a year but nothing stays the same for long, as buyers and sellers were Eying the magnificent Gold moves the oil started what can be a stratospheric launch leading to a whole different economic balance for the next Decade.
Important zones are 87 and 95 with targets as high as mid 120s
TVC:USOIL
US Sanctions Send Oil Prices to 4-Month High
Oil prices have surged to a four-month high following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions targeting oil exports. This sudden price spike reflects the market's sensitivity to geopolitical events and the potential global oil supply disruption. The sanctions, aimed at Russia and potentially India, have immediately triggered concerns about reduced supply, pushing prices upward. This article delves into the details of these sanctions, their potential impact on the oil market, and the broader economic implications.
The Sanctions and Their Target
The U.S. government has imposed new sanctions on Indian shipping companies. These sanctions specifically target the country's or entities' ability to export oil, a crucial source of revenue. The rationale behind these sanctions, as stated by the U.S. government, is to punish countries that trade for Russia’s oil during a war with Ukraine. The U.S. aims to exert economic pressure on the targeted entity by restricting oil exports, forcing them to change their policies or behavior.
Immediate Market Reaction
The oil market reacted swiftly to the news of the sanctions. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the global benchmarks for oil prices, experienced significant jumps, reaching levels not seen in four months. This immediate price surge underscores the market's anticipation of reduced supply. Traders are factoring in the potential loss of barrels from the market, leading to increased buying activity and pushing prices higher.
Potential Impact on Global Oil Supply
The extent of the impact on global oil supply depends on several factors, including the volume of oil previously exported by the sanctioned entity and the ability of other oil-producing nations to compensate for the lost supply. If the sanctioned entity was a significant exporter, the impact on global supply could be substantial, leading to further price increases. Conversely, if other producers can ramp up production to offset the shortfall, the price impact might be mitigated.
Impact on Consumers
Rising oil prices inevitably translate to higher prices at the pump for consumers. This increase in gasoline prices can have a ripple effect throughout the economy, impacting transportation costs, the price of goods and services, and overall inflation. Consumers may face higher costs for commuting, travel, and everyday purchases.
Impact on Businesses
Businesses, particularly those in transportation, logistics, and manufacturing, are also significantly affected by rising oil prices. Higher fuel costs increase operating expenses, potentially squeezing profit margins. Businesses may be forced to pass these increased costs on to consumers, further contributing to inflationary pressures.
Geopolitical Implications
These sanctions and their impact on oil prices also have broader geopolitical implications. They can strain relationships between the U.S. and other countries, particularly those that rely on oil imports from the sanctioned entity. The sanctions can also create opportunities for other oil-producing nations to increase their market share.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
In response to potential supply disruptions, governments may consider releasing oil from their strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The SPR is an emergency stockpile of crude oil maintained by several countries, including the U.S. Releasing oil from the SPR can temporarily increase supply and help stabilize prices. However, the effectiveness of this measure depends on the size of the release and the duration of the supply disruption.
Long-Term Outlook
The long-term impact of these sanctions on oil prices is uncertain. It depends on various factors, including the duration of the sanctions, the response of other oil-producing nations, and the overall state of the global economy. If the sanctions remain in place for an extended period and other producers cannot fully compensate for the lost supply, oil prices could remain elevated.
Conclusion
The recent surge in oil prices following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitics and energy markets. The sanctions, aimed at exerting pressure on India and Russia, have triggered concerns about reduced oil supply and have led to a significant price increase. The impact of these sanctions will be felt by consumers, businesses, and the global economy as a whole. The situation underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical events and their potential impact on energy markets. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, the immediate impact is clear: higher oil prices and increased volatility in the energy sector.
WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump.
In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange.
Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March.
If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far.
In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included.
The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year.
Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show.
Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power.
Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China.
Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports.
No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out.
Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024.
The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA.
It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022.
// Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
JinkoSolar: Defying Downgrade,Aiming for Bullish MomentumJinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. ( NYSE:JKS ) has recently been downgraded by Daiwa Securities from " Underperform " to " Sell ," with a revised price target of $20 .
Despite this downgrade, the stock has demonstrated bullish momentum, with a mid-term target of $33.42.
Notably, JinkoSolar's Relative Strength (RS) Rating has improved, rising from 71 to 82 , indicating that the stock is outperforming a majority of stocks in terms of price movement over the past 52 weeks.
Additionally, China's solar sector is showing signs of recovery, with increases in polysilicon prices and potential growth in renewable energy markets in Southeast Asia and India.
In conclusion, while the recent downgrade by Daiwa Securities reflects certain concerns, the stock's bullish momentum and improving technical indicators suggest potential upside, with a mid-term target of $33.42 .
WTI CRUDE OIL hit the 6 month Resistance Zone. Sell.WTI Crude Oil entered today the 6 month Resistance Zone of July 2024.
Even though the long term trend seems to have turned bullish by breaking critical levels, a short term pull back is possible on this Resistance.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 74.50 (the 0.382 Fibonacci level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is overbought, justifying a short term pull back.
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