USOIL:Go long on oil prices, or hold a buy orderusoil:
Technically, there is no demand for a rebound. The ultra-short-term technical pattern shows a triangular consolidation range. At the same time, reducing the oil price in some areas will also increase the demand for oil to a certain extent. At the same time, the factor of geopolitical war will cause oil as an energy reserve to bottom out again. Overall, the profit of short-term long oil prices is conservatively estimated to be more than 7p.
Buying target: around 71.5
Loss setting: 70.2 FX:USOIL
Energy Commodities
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil StrugglesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Struggles
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $70.00.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil prices failed to clear the $73.50 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $73.50 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $72.20 support.
The price even dipped below the $71.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $70.20 level. A low was formed at $70.12, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.87 swing high to the $70.12 low at $71.00.
There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00. The first major resistance is near the $71.85 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.20 level.
The main resistance could be near the $73.35 level. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $70.00 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $68.80.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $65.00 support zone.
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Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the 3-day moving average. On the weekly chart, the index formed a strong bullish breakout candle, yet a confirmed buy signal has not yet materialized. This week, the focus will be on whether the index can hold support at the 3-week moving average, allowing for further upside potential. However, if the weekly candle closes as a bearish candle, a new sell signal could emerge, making this week’s closing price critical.
On the daily chart, as noted last Friday, the Nasdaq bounced off the 3-day moving average, which means today’s key support level is the 5-day moving average. This suggests that if the market pulls back in the pre-market session or briefly tests the 5-day MA intraday, a rebound could follow.
A key factor today is the U.S. market holiday, meaning today’s daily candle will merge with tomorrow’s session. If the market moves up first, it could present a short opportunity at the highs, while a downside move first could offer a dip-buying opportunity.
On the 240-minute chart, buying pressure remains strong, making buying on dips the preferred strategy. However, given the gap between price and the 5-day moving average, traders should avoid chasing longs and instead focus on buying at lower levels.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower following news of Ukraine-Russia peace talks. On the weekly chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. However, the gap between the MACD and the signal line is narrowing, suggesting that if a bullish crossover fails, a strong move could follow.
After four consecutive weeks of decline and last week’s doji candle, this week’s closing price is critical—if oil closes with a bullish candle, it could signal a potential reversal.
On the daily chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line, keeping the sell signal active. However, strong historical support levels make it difficult to short aggressively. Oil is also attempting to form a double-bottom pattern near $70, making a break above $72 a key bullish confirmation.
The short-term price action remains mixed, making lower time frames more relevant for positioning. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains intact, with the key focus on whether oil breaks below $70. If oil fails to break lower, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts a high-risk strategy.
Given that U.S. markets are closed today, liquidity will be lower, so expect reduced trading volumes.
Gold
Gold closed lower, forming a double-top rejection at previous highs. As mentioned last week, the 2950+ zone was an overextended level, and now the price has pulled back sharply.
On the weekly chart, gold remains in an uptrend, but a pullback toward the 5-week moving average remains possible. Since it is unclear how deep the correction may go, traders should only buy dips at lower levels to ensure proper risk management.
On the daily chart, gold closed below the 10-day moving average, marking a technical shift. Throughout this entire rally, the key rule was to buy as long as gold held the 10-day MA, but now that it has broken, the market has shifted into a range-bound structure.
However, since the MACD has not yet formed a bearish crossover, the market still has the potential for another rebound. Gold’s price action will depend on whether it can reclaim the 10-day MA or continue consolidating within a larger range.
For now, the 2915–2920 zone (near the 3-day and 5-day moving averages) is a likely resistance area, while downside risk extends toward the 20-day moving average.
On the 240-minute chart, a strong sell signal has appeared, but both the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, meaning that buying attempts could still emerge. Meanwhile, on the 60-minute chart, gold is testing its 240-period moving average, a level that often acts as a major support/resistance pivot.
Considering these factors, gold is likely to remain range-bound this week, making box-range trading strategies the most effective. Given that a double-top pattern has formed, further downside could trigger increased volatility, so traders should be cautious.
Today, the U.S. market is closed, with key events scheduled for later this week:
-Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes
-Thursday: Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations
Rather than a new trend forming, markets are likely to consolidate within existing trends, leading to range-bound conditions. Risk management remains the top priority—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading week!
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#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: No bigger opinion on this trading range. 70 holds, we chop until a bigger news event pushes us above 74. Below 70 we could flush to 69 and then 67.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls preventing meaningful lower lows but we have a clear bear trend line. Bulls are still favored going into next week to buy around 70 and test back up to at least 72. They want to break above the Tuesday high 73.67 and make the market more neutral again. If they get it, we could test 75 next.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears have closed the week near the lows and they want to poke at 70 until it fails. I have no idea how likely that is next week but for now it’s support and if we see decent buying pressure tomorrow, bulls are favored. Volume is also trash again. Below 70 we test 69 and then 67.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. Still no interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. Nothing has changed since last Sunday. Play the range or trade something else.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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USOIL(WTI) Price ActionHello Traders,
I hope you all had a great weekend and made some profits last week! As the market opens today, I’ve identified another setup on USOIL (WTI) . Here’s the breakdown:
1. Zones Marked:
- On the 4H chart, I’ve marked two key zones: a Supply Zone and a Demand Zone.
- Switching to the M30 chart, I’ve marked an additional Demand Zone.
2. Liquidity Line:
- You’ll notice a Liquidity Line on the chart. Wait for a sweep of this level before considering any trades.
3. Entry Strategy:
- Move to the M15 chart for a precise entry to lower your risk.
- Look for bullish momentum to confirm a long position.
4. Take Profit (TP):
- The TP levels will remain the same as planned.
5. Volume Observation:
- Volume is currently low, which could indicate a potential divergence. Keep an eye on this as it may impact the trade.
6. Risk Management:
- Always manage your risk carefully. Avoid trading blindly and stick to your plan.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading! Let’s make it a profitable week. Thank you!
OIL CallsThe market structure remains bullish as the Daily price broke the last swing high of $77.89 to make a new market top of $79.44.
Even though in the short term the price is retracing down to fill inefficiencies left by the last rally, we can expect a reversal of the trend at either $69 or $67 supply zones. In case of such reversal the price can with high probability retest the last swing high or the first supply zone which sits outside the current structure at $80.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below $66.80, it will signal the market is entering another bear run.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations, next oil market analysis!!On Friday (February 15), international oil prices fell slightly, mainly affected by the expectation of easing the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The market generally believes that if the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine make substantial progress, the lifting of sanctions on Russia will greatly improve the global energy supply. However, the postponement of the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs has provided support for oil prices and limited the decline in oil prices. Brent crude oil futures closed at $7,451 per barrel, while WTI crude oil fell to $70.57 per barrel.
This week, Brent crude oil fell slightly by 0.23%, while WTI crude oil fell slightly by 0.69%. Despite the weak performance of oil prices, market sentiment remains relatively complex, greatly affected by the supply and demand pattern and global political dynamics.
Market Dynamics Analysis
Russia-Ukraine Situation: Changes in Supply and Demand Expectations Brought by Peace Talks
One of the most important market news this week was that US President Trump instructed US officials to launch Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed their willingness to reach a peace agreement in separate phone calls with Trump. Market expectations for a possible turnaround in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are rising. If a peace agreement is reached and sanctions on Russia are lifted, the pressure on global energy supply will be significantly eased.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently mentioned in its oil market report that if Russia's oil exports can circumvent new sanctions, they may still be able to remain at the current level, which will have an important impact on the global oil market. Nevertheless, the market still needs to pay attention to the further development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and there is still great uncertainty in the final realization of the peace agreement.
US trade policy: The postponement of reciprocal tariffs provides support for oil prices
US President Trump recently announced that he plans to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and the relevant report is expected to be submitted on April 1. The market responded positively to this, and the decision to postpone tariffs has increased optimism about the outlook for global trade. IG market strategist Ye Junrong pointed out that Trump's tariff policy adjustment has warmed up the market's expectations for the global trade environment, driving a certain rebound in oil prices.
However, it is worth noting that although the postponement of tariffs has brought support to the market, the final direction of this policy is still uncertain, and it may have a greater impact on the trend of global oil prices in the future.
Global demand recovery and supply dynamics: energy market tends to balance
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase pointed out that global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 1.4 million bpd from the same period last year. In particular, the recovery in demand for travel and heating fuels has further increased the actual demand for oil. At the same time, the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased for three consecutive weeks. The latest report from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 2 this week to 588. The increase in the number of drilling rigs usually indicates a recovery in future production and indicates that the US oil industry is gradually recovering.
However, despite the recovery in demand, supply concerns remain. The economic pressure imposed by the Trump administration on Iran may also limit the growth of crude oil supply in the short term.
Technical aspects and market sentiment: the pattern of oil price shocks
From a technical perspective, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have been operating in a shock range recently, and there is great uncertainty in the short-term trend. Although the market is optimistic about the recovery in demand, potential disturbances in global supply and geopolitical risks still put pressure on oil prices. In terms of technical indicators, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have not broken through the upper limit of the recent fluctuation range, indicating that market sentiment is still in a wait-and-see state.
Outlook for next week
Looking ahead to next week, the crude oil market will still face the test of multiple uncertainties. First, whether the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks can make substantial progress will be an important factor affecting oil prices. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine eases and sanctions on Russia are lifted, global energy supply may ease and oil prices may be under great pressure.
Second, whether the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to be postponed and its impact on global trade may continue to affect market sentiment. The market's expectations for the adjustment of the US trade policy are still relatively optimistic, which may provide some support for oil prices in the short term.
In addition, the recovery trend of global oil demand is expected to continue, especially as the global economy gradually recovers, the increase in fuel and heating demand may further drive up oil prices. However, uncertainties on the global supply side, especially supply problems in Iran and Russia, will have a lasting impact on oil price trends.
The increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States indicates that the recovery of US oil production may have an impact on market supply in the coming months. If the US energy production capacity continues to expand, oil prices may face downward pressure. TVC:USOIL
OXY: Bullish Breakout PotentialA break above the 50.80 level could confirm the stock is ready to clear its descending channel and shift momentum in favor of the bulls. This price has acted as a pivotal zone in recent sessions, and a decisive close above it would suggest the downtrend may be reversing. A surge in volume above 50.80 would further strengthen the long setup, potentially targeting the high 50s or low 60s if buyers follow through. The RSI on this 2W chart is hovering near the middle (accumulation) range. It’s neither showing an extreme overbought nor deeply oversold condition. That gives price room to run in either direction.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars
One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further:
Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions.
Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile.
OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon.
U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher.
With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand.
2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture
While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways.
AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand
AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging.
Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Mining
Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions.
With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption.
Agriculture & Food Production
The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs.
Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand.
Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up.
3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone
Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples:
2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis.
2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply.
2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil.
Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks
Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive.
Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise.
Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth.
If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities.
4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026
Current Setup
Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area.
Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+.
Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target:
0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance.
0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target.
1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026.
This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable.
5. Investment & Trading Strategy
Long-Term Bullish Strategy
Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support).
Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125.
Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis).
Hedging Against Market Risk
SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn.
Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets.
Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase.
Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil
Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices.
AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand.
If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback.
While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility.
Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
USOIL Massive Long! BUY!
My dear friends,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 70.49 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 71.21
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
WTI Crude The Week Ahead 17 Feb 25 The WTI Crude (US Light Crude) price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 7290, 50 Day Moving Average level. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 7290 level could target the downside support at 7100 followed by 6955 and 6870 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 7290 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 7360 resistance followed by 7455 levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is evidently falling on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 78.25 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
USOIL (WTI) - More downside?The price action for the WTI Crude Oil chart shows that the higher probability move appears to be to the downside, targeting the lower orange box around the 70.00 level. The recent price structure has failed to establish any convincing bullish momentum, and after testing the upper orange box around 73.00, the price has shown weakness. Without any strong buying pressure or upside catalyst visible in the current price action, the path of least resistance suggests a continuation of the downward movement toward the lower support zone.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher, breaking through resistance near 22,000. Although Trump held a press conference on tariffs, the market interpreted the grace period as a bullish signal, driving a breakout from the previous range with a strong bullish candlestick.
On the daily chart, the MACD remains in an upward trend, and since the index has broken out of its previous range, today’s strategy should focus on buying at the 3-day moving average, which aligns closely with the previous range high.
Today marks the weekly close, making the Retail Sales data release a crucial event. If price action sustains its bullish momentum, it will be important to check whether a weekly buy signal is confirmed on the closing price.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has emerged, reinforcing the breakout above the range. Buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, but traders should stay mindful of potential volatility spikes around the Retail Sales report.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off the $70 support level with a long lower wick. Despite this rebound, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant. However, this area also represents a strong historical support zone, making buying on dips a favorable strategy.
As mentioned earlier this week, oil is forming a potential double-bottom pattern, which could provide further upside potential. The key trigger would be either a bullish MACD crossover near the zero line or a bearish continuation if the crossover fails, leading to a strong directional move.
On the 240-minute chart, price action has exhibited a false breakdown, followed by a bullish divergence, suggesting that a bottoming process is underway. Buying on pullbacks remains the most effective approach, but traders should be cautious with weekend risk, as Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations could bring unexpected developments.
Gold
Gold closed higher, digesting the PPI data while trading near previous highs. The key focus is whether gold is forming a double-top pattern at this level. The recent rally can largely be attributed to global inflation fears stemming from Trump’s tariff policies.
On the daily chart, the buy signal remains intact, but traders should be cautious, as a corrective pullback could emerge at any time. The MACD and signal line tend to converge naturally, so chasing momentum at current levels carries increased risk.
On the 240-minute chart, gold has bounced off the 2,900 support level, triggering a buy signal. However, there is now a wide divergence between price and MACD, meaning that even if gold breaks above previous highs, the MACD may fail to surpass its previous peak, potentially signaling a bearish divergence.
If a divergence forms and price pulls back, the correction could be sharp, as overbought conditions often lead to strong reversals. However, since the MACD and signal line remain well above the zero line, even a pullback is likely to find support, leading to a range-bound structure. The safest approach is to buy only at key support levels.
Today’s Retail Sales report could drive significant market volatility, particularly as it will influence the weekly close.
Always focus on the larger trend, manage risk effectively, and stay disciplined. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. Thank you.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 22000 / 21945 / 21900 / 21840
-Sell Levels: 22160 / 22240 / 22300 / 22360
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market(March)
-Buy Levels: 71.10 / 70.45 / 69.85
-Sell Levels: 71.85 / 72.55 / 73.00
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2945 / 2936 / 2930 / 2921
-Sell Levels: 2966 / 2974 / 2985
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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WTI Oil Short: Bearish Setup After Sharp RallyOil prices have surged impressively, fueled by recent fundamental-driven market moves. However, this swift upside has led WTI crude to my point of interest, offering a prime opportunity to short against the trend. My trade strategy includes taking partials at the $74 price zone. Here’s why this setup is supported by bearish fundamentals:
1. Rising U.S. Fuel Inventories
Recent data shows significant growth in U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles, hinting at a potential oversupply in the market.
2. Strengthening U.S. Dollar
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing global demand and weighing on prices.
3. Increased Non-OPEC Supply
With rising production levels from non-OPEC countries, analysts expect an oversupplied market in 2025, adding further pressure on oil prices.
4. Weakening Global Demand
Economic growth concerns in major markets like China and Germany are fostering expectations of reduced oil demand, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
These combined factors strongly support a short position on WTI crude oil. Stay strategic, take profits along the way, and manage your risk carefully in this volatile environment!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.