WTI Oil H4 | Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 82.94 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 84.80 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 80.42 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Energy Commodities
Bullish bounce off overlap support?WTI/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 80.86
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 79.33
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 82.96
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Historically Warm Weather to Support Natural Gas PricesAfter the second quarter relief rally and the five-month peak, Natural Gas registered a four-week decline. This has shifted bias to the downside again, creating scope for further losses towards 1.940. However, a look at the daily chart shows that NGAS tries to react at the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. Furthermore, a Golden Cross (EMA50 crossing above the EMA200) has been formed, which is often viewed as a precursor of sustained growth.
This technical formation compliments the favorable fundamentals, as demand is set to increase this year, while key drillers lower their activity. Although the world shifts to renewables, Natural Gas is seen a bridge fuel facilitating this transition. Furthermore, it is heavily used in electricity generation, being the top source in the US and No2 globally. June was the thirteenth straight month of record high temperatures according to Copernicus, which can provide another tailwind for energy demand during the summer months. This in turn can increase Natural gas consumption and support prices.
As a result, NGAS can reclaim the EMA200 that would give control to the bulls and the ability to push for the June peak (3.164). The upside contains multiple technical roadblocks though and there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand dynamics.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
WTI OIL Rejected on the 9-month Resistance. Still good to sell.Last week (July 02, see chart below) we called for a short-term correction upon a potential Lower Highs rejection on WTI Oil (USOIL):
As you can see, the strong rejection was materialized last Friday on that 9-month Resistance, and the long-term Triangle pattern is technically looking for a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level test.
Zooming out on the 1W time-frame, we can see even more relevant info. During the previous two 0.618 Fibonacci pull-backs, the price also hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has served as Oil's long-term Support in the last 3.5 years (since February 01 2021). The only time it closed a 1W candle below the 1W MA200 during this time span was recently on the week of June 03 2024.
As a result, besides the 0.618 Fib, we expect the 1W MA200 to be tested also, so depending on the decline's strength, we may have to move our 77.00 Target a bit higher (e.g. 78.00). It has to be mentioned though that the decline to the 0.618 Fib during the past 2 corrections has been dealt within a week. So technically we should be expecting an aggressive move this week.
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2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Good follow through by the bears and a clear break below the bull channel. If we continue down from here, I would be surprised. More likely is another retest from the bulls to 83/84. Selling is strong enough that we have a decent chance of 84.52 being the high of this bull trend that’s now over and we are in a trading range at the highs. Odds strongly favor the bears since we are in a huge triangle.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 80 - 84
bull case: Bulls failed at the 1h 20ema multiple times today but held it above 82 which means we are forming a smaller descending triangle which will likely break out early tomorrow. Retest of the bull channel to 83.5 is reasonable.
Invalid below 82.
bear case: Bears showed strength by consecutive decent bear bars on the daily chart. They want the 1h 20ema to be resistance as long as possible and their next target is the daily 20ema at 81.2ish which is also the recent trading range and a magnet.
short term: Two bear trend lines which can both work and we will only find out tomorrow. Market should stay below 82.9 if bears are in control. If bulls break above, can see 83.4/84 again. So looking for shorts near 1h 20ema and upper bear trend lines. Long scalps above 83.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Small short initiated and will add on higher if necessary. Plan to hold this to at least 76 with profit taking/adding on in between.
trade of the day: Look at all the bars with a tail above 82.7. That’s more than enough reason and time to place some shorts because market is screaming at you, that bulls are not strong enough above 82.7.
Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly.
NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount.
We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth )
Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade.
For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift.
Be prepared to stay dynamic.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 82.34 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 80.50 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 84.45 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so USOIL is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 79.68.
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USOIL: Trend Analysis and Trading StrategiesCrude oil technical analysis
Daily resistance 83.4, support below 79
Four-hour resistance 81, support below 81.3-80
Crude oil operation suggestions: Last Friday, the overall oil price fell first and then rose, breaking through the 82.7 mark, and then fell back and bottomed out, breaking through the 81 mark and closing weakly.
The overall price showed a fluctuating upward rhythm. Today, the lower support continues to focus on the low point of 81 last Friday, and the upper pressure focuses on the vicinity of 82.5-82.7. If the upper 83.4 is not broken, continue to see the oscillation operation first, and if 83.4 is broken, the bulls will start
SELL:82.0near SL:82.40
SELL:83.4near SL:83.70
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
BRIEFING Week #27: Further Pulling the ElasticHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bears last stand is 84 and my choppy outlook was drawn 3 or 4 weeks ago. My outlook is the same as last weeks. More sideways movement under 84 needed until bears give up or bulls strongly break above again and we will then most certainly see 86 fast and decent chance this time they get to 90 again. I lean slightly bearish.
Quote from last week:
comment: High of the week was 82.72, so 22 ticks above my lower bull target. Most was said in my tl;dr. Bulls trying to break above 82 but can’t a one single daily close above that price. Market will also break out soon. After last week, I see this as 50/50 who get’s the breakout.
comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern.
current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel.
key levels: 80-86
bull case: Another breakout for the bulls but the volume is increasing and the selling pressure is building. If bulls can keep this long enough above 80, bears might give up again and the trend could continue but it’s hard to argue after 3 pushes up and the clear triangle pattern on higher tf.
Invalidation is below 81.3.
bear case: Bears want this to be a lower high since market has been doing this for 2 years now. April high was 86.27 so there is your sl if you want to short this. I do think bears want to break the bull channel first, put in another retest of 84ish for a tripple top or head & shoulders before they sell more aggressively again. They see this bull trend with the 3 pushes as done and now they want to get back below 75 again. You play the best pattern on the highest time frame because the higher the time frame the more reliable the pattern is. If multiple pattern on multiple tf align, even better. On a 1h chart we are also forming bull wedges which can break to the downside any day now.
Invalidation is above 86.27.
outlook last week:
“short term: Still slightly favoring the bulls because of the highers highs and higher lows but breakout above need to happen next week. Once we hit 83/84, I think next 10 points will be made to the down side again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 81.54 and now we are at 83.16. High was 84.52 and I gave you 84. +246 if you will. Hope you made some.
short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Will short once we break the bull channel and we see decent selling pressure.
chart update: Removed the bull wave series but all bearish patterns were drawn 2-3 weeks ago.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
USOIL Will Explode! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 83.29 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 83.74
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
WTI - 1H Bullish SignsBased on the previous 15-minute analysis and the current 1-hour chart, WTI Crude Oil is showing strong support around the $83.00 zone. This area has acted as a significant support level, and the price has bounced off it, indicating a potential buy opportunity.
On the 15-minute chart, the price had a brief consolidation phase within the support zone before showing signs of upward momentum. This aligns with the 1-hour chart, where the price is currently attempting to rise from the same support area. The consistency in this support zone across different timeframes strengthens the bullish outlook.
Currently, WTI Crude Oil is poised to continue its upward movement from the support level, targeting higher resistance levels. Traders should look for confirmation of this bullish trend with potential higher highs and higher lows forming on the 1-hour chart. If the price maintains its support above $83.00, it could provide a favorable risk-reward ratio for long positions, aiming for the next resistance levels around $84.00 and beyond.
In summary, the support zone around $83.00 has held well, and the current bullish momentum suggests a buying opportunity in WTI Crude Oil, with an eye on higher resistance levels in the near term.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST Part 1: DXY, INDICES, GOLD, SILVER, US OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, S&P500 NASDAQ DOW JONES DAX GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
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