Energy Commodities
WTI OIL Buy opportunity or more meltdown coming?WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the September 25 2023 High and the recent Trade War sell-off helped the price drop towards the pattern's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) much quicker.
Technically this has been a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection, previously a Lower High rejection on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Notice how the 1W RSI has also been trading within a Channel Down of its own, with the indicator near its bottom as well.
Being more than -31% down (more than the -29% of the first Bearish Leg), we can technically claim that this is a solid level for a medium-term buy again. The previous Bullish Leg marginally exceeded the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before the Lower High. As a result, our new Target is $70.00.
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Crude oil-----sell near 61.00, target 69.00-67.00Crude oil market analysis:
Tariffs have been increased again, and crude oil continues to fall sharply. It is difficult to change the short-term selling of crude oil. In addition, data and fundamentals all suppress it. Today's crude oil can continue to find selling opportunities. The crude oil pattern shows that the possibility of a big rebound is small. We pay attention to the suppression position of its moving average, which has dropped to around 61.80. This position is also the high point of yesterday's rebound. Today's idea will rely on this position to sell it. The first suppression of crude oil is around 59.30, and the strong pressure is 61.80.
Fundamental analysis:
The tariff war continues to affect the market, and buying and selling have begun a big game. We will pay attention to CPI later, and there will be crude oil inventory data today.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----sell near 61.00, target 69.00-67.00
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Support Clusters to Watch
On a today's live stream, we discussed potentially significant
historic supports on WTI Crude Oil to watch.
Support 1: 57.0 - 59.0 area
Support 2: 52.5 - 54.6 area
Support 3: 48.8 - 50.4 area
Support 4: 40.6 - 43.7 area
The price is currently testing a lower boundary of Support 1.
It perfectly matches with a completion point of a harmonic ABCD pattern.
It looks like we may see some pullback soon.
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USOIL SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 57.67
Target Level: 66.44
Stop Loss: 51.82
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after forming an upper wick at the 5-day moving average on the daily chart. If it had closed with a bullish candle, a technical rebound from the oversold condition could have opened the way to the 10-day moving average, but instead, it ended with a bearish candle.
The daily chart still shows a sell signal, but the best-case scenario would be for the market to form a double bottom pattern after confirming a short-term low and attempt another rise toward the 10-day moving average.
On the intraday charts, there's a high probability that the market will show a double bottom during the pre-market session, especially since there's no clear sell reversal on lower timeframes yet. The 240-minute chart shows a golden cross on the MACD, and although a death cross hasn't yet occurred, the large gap between the MACD and the zero line suggests a continued corrective trend.
As long as the death cross doesn't materialize, buying on dips near the bottom remains favorable. The 16,500 level is a strong support zone on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts, so shorting is not recommended — better to lean toward long setups. With the FOMC minutes due out early tomorrow and the CPI report on the horizon, volatility is expected to rise as the market attempts to form a bottom. Stick to buying on dips, manage risk carefully, and reduce leverage in this volatile environment.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower, continuing its recent downtrend on the daily chart. Concerns over a global economic slowdown and increased production from OPEC nations are dampening the upside. Although the sell signal on the daily MACD remains, there's still potential for a short-term rebound toward the 5-day moving average. If trading short, make sure to set a stop-loss, especially near the strong $57 support zone, where shorting is riskier.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has re-crossed into a death cross, showing signs of a third wave of selling pressure. However, there's still a chance of bullish divergence, so avoid chasing short positions. The $57–$59 support range remains strong, and unless this level breaks, buying on dips offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio. Note that today's U.S. crude inventory report could introduce more volatility, so trade carefully.
Gold
Gold closed lower with an upper wick on the daily chart. While the price is still above the 0 line on the MACD, if it pulls back to the previous high resistance area, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band and the 60-day moving average, it may present a good buying opportunity for swing trades. On the weekly chart, gold is still moving within a sideways range, trapped between key moving averages. With the FOMC minutes today and the CPI tomorrow, it's important to monitor whether the price breaks out of this range.
The 240-minute chart shows that the MACD has not yet formed a golden cross, and there's still a large gap from the 0 line. If MACD rebounds and then corrects again, it's crucial to check whether a double bottom around the 2,980 area is forming. Overall, gold remains a buy-the-dip candidate, and if the price falls to around the 60-day moving average, it could present a great swing entry.
Investor sentiment is reaching extreme levels, and we're witnessing unusually fast and wide price swings. It's hard to rely on daily or weekly charts alone, so it's important to focus on short-term price action and use appropriate leverage for your strategy.
The market will always be open. Survival and consistent profitability are what matter most in the long run. Stay disciplined, manage risk carefully, and take a long-term view as a trader.
Wishing you another day of successful trading!
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WTI Oil H4 | Heading into a pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 59.51 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 61.95 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 53.41 which is a support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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Weekly Market Analysis - 9th April 2025Here we are with another market analysis. This time, a bit late in the week on a Wednesday, but it is what it is! We have CPI today and PPI tomorrow, so this should be an interesting week. Overall, gut instinct tells me we would be pushing lower for the DXY, but again, i'm not betting anything on it. I trade the candles, I trade the structure, I don't trade guesses.
I hope you find the video analysis useful. Take care this week!
- R2F Trading
WTI Continues Sharp Decline and Enters Oversold TerritoryOver the past five trading sessions, oil prices have dropped more than 17% , with WTI crude falling below the $60 per barrel mark. This move reflects ongoing market uncertainty, as investors expect the new trade war to significantly weaken oil demand in the coming months. As long as confidence remains in a fragile zone, downward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist.
Break of the Sideways Channel
In recent weeks, a key sideways channel that had held since November 2023 has been broken. This shift could alter the neutral outlook that has dominated the oil market in the long term and now points toward seller dominance. As price movements stabilize, a stronger bearish trend may begin to develop in the short term.
Oversold Conditions Appear
RSI: The RSI line is currently holding below the 30 level, which signals oversold conditions on the indicator. This suggests that while bearish pressure has been dominant, the market may be entering an early stage of exhaustion, potentially opening the door for short-term bullish corrections.
Bollinger Bands: The price has completely broken through the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that it has moved beyond two standard deviations from the mean. This reflects high volatility and could signal a pause in selling momentum. In turn, it may lead to potential rebound zones forming soon.
Key Levels:
$58 – Near Support: This is the most important short-term barrier, aligning with multi-year lows not seen since 2021. Continued selling below this level could reinforce the current bearish bias.
$66 – Near Resistance: This level marks the lower boundary of the former sideways channel. It may act as a potential zone for bullish corrections in the short term.
$73 – Distant Resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. Price action approaching this area could reactivate the previously abandoned uptrend.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
NATGAS Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS made a bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Resistance of 3.626$ and the
Breakout is confirmed so we
Are bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish move down
Sell!
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USOIL CATCHING THE FALLING KNIFE|LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL lost 18% of it's
Value in the last 5 days on the
Trade war news, which makes
The market to expect a recession
And a sharp drop in the oil demand
However, I still think that Oil
Is locally oversold, therefore
A local bullish correction is
To be expected from the
Horizontal support below
Around 57.34$ and the
Target being the resistance
Above around 61.81$
LONG🚀
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Oil Futures Moving into Bear Market?Oil futures recently broke down from a long-term wedge, following a failed breakout at the start of the year, and a recent death cross of its 50/200 weekly EMAs and MAs.
It looks to flip long-term bearish here unless we see a rapid recovery of the wedge, the EMAS/MAs and a subsequent breakout.
It could lose half its value or even 2/3rds if it hits TP 1 and then TP 2 over the next weeks and months to come.
Buy oil! Target 63-65!Crude oil is currently in a short position overall, and the rebound momentum is relatively weak. However, in the short-term structure, oil has shown obvious signs of stopping the decline, and the support of the 60-59 area below is still valid.
After hitting the low point of 58.9, oil began to rebound, and the rebound low gradually shifted upward. At present, oil holds the support near 60, and is expected to build a W-bottom structure in the short-term structure, which is conducive to further rebound of oil prices.
Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, you can try to go long on crude oil in the 60.5-59.5 area, and the rebound target will first look at 63, followed by 65
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Crude oil-----sell near 63.70, target 62.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis:
We continue to be bearish on crude oil today, and continue to sell on rebounds. The position of 63.80, which was pulled up last night, is today's major suppression position. This position is a selling opportunity. Crude oil has not broken the previous low point, but it will have a big bottom shock and a big repair after the data is over. Today's crude oil will wait for the opportunity to sell. In addition, the recent data on crude oil also suppresses it. Crude oil has not effectively stood on the major pressure before, and the short-term rebound is just a rebound. The weekly trend is still bearish.
Fundamental analysis:
The US tariffs on the world are still brewing, which has also led to a sharp drop in global stock markets, and the market is not optimistic about expectations. Later this week, we will focus on the heavyweight CPI data.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----sell near 63.70, target 62.00-60.00
NATGAS is Bearish amid Oversold SignalsFenzoFx—NATGAS is in a downtrend, broke below the $3.66 support. The primary trend is bearish, but a consolidation phase is expected.
In this scenario, Natural Gas may test the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.866 before the downtrend resumes. Watch this level for bearish signals, like candlestick patterns.
>>> Trade NATGAS without swap at FenzoFx Decentralized Broker
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after experiencing extreme volatility the previous day. Following a gap-down open, the market attempted a bottoming process. However, the spread of fake news related to tariffs triggered a 10% intraday swing, making the Nasdaq trade more like an individual stock than a major index. Massive trading volume occurred due to margin calls from CFDs and hedge funds, and the market showed some signs of recognition around a potential short-term bottom.
On the weekly chart, the index rebounded but was resisted at the 3-week moving average. On the daily chart, a doji bullish candlestick with strong volume formed, suggesting the market may attempt another rebound. However, since volatility from the bottom remains significant, if you’re planning to enter long positions, it's best to buy as close to the bottom as possible. If the market continues to form a base, a rebound toward the 5-day or 10-day moving average on the daily chart is possible.
On the 240-minute chart, the market is still in a death cross and remains oversold. Still, it's showing signs of forming a base around the 16,500 level, so it's better to avoid chasing short positions during any pullbacks that could form a double bottom. In this oversold environment, a buy-on-dip approach near the lows is favorable for a technical rebound. But since volatility remains high, make sure to set clear stop-loss levels for both long and short trades.
Crude Oil
Crude oil experienced a gap-down on the daily chart and closed lower after hitting resistance at the 3-day moving average. On both the daily and weekly charts, the $57–$59 zone appears to be a short-term support level. If the price dips into this zone, it may offer a buying opportunity. Yesterday’s candle was resisted at the 3-day line, so if a bottoming pattern forms today, a rebound toward the 5-day moving average could be anticipated. However, since the MACD has just issued a sell signal near the zero line, it's better to treat any long positions as short-term trades.
On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal is still valid, and the market remains in oversold territory. Watching for a potential double bottom formation before entering long positions is recommended. That said, if market sentiment continues to accept economic recession as a given, oil prices could keep falling. There's also the risk of a one-way downward move, so if you're going long, ensure tight stop-loss levels are in place.
Gold
Gold saw sharp volatility and closed lower after being rejected at the 5-day moving average. Due to the weaker dollar from U.S. tariff announcements, the attractiveness of gold has diminished in the short term. On the weekly chart, gold is still forming a range-bound movement near the 10-week moving average, with support appearing near the $2,975 level. On the daily chart, the lower Bollinger Band and the 60-day moving average are rising and beginning to converge.
These overlapping indicators could form a strong support zone, so if the price drops into this area, it may present a good opportunity to buy the dip. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal lines have both dropped below the zero line, and the RSI has entered oversold territory.
While this could lead to further accelerated selling, it is also a zone where a rebound from oversold conditions could easily occur. It’s best to avoid chasing the downside and instead focus on buying during pullbacks near strong support zones.
Market volatility is increasing, but this is also a zone where technical rebounds are likely due to excessive declines. While confirmation of a bottoming pattern is needed, in this kind of market, it's safer to focus on one direction rather than trying to trade both ways.
Long positions currently offer a better risk-reward ratio, so it’s advisable to enter at the lower end of the range. Reduce leverage as much as possible and always set stop-loss levels to ensure safe trading in these turbulent conditions.
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Crude Oil: Volatility and Key Levels in FocusThe Crude Oil (CL1!) chart shows a recent phase of high volatility, with a sharp decline followed by a recovery attempt. After reaching the recent high around 80.77, the price underwent a significant correction, returning to the key support zone between 60.97 and 62.43. This price range represents an important accumulation level, previously tested multiple times in recent months and defended by buyers.
From a technical perspective, the area between 65.27 and 69.00 represents a dynamic resistance zone, whose breakout could pave the way for a recovery towards the critical 73.00 area. However, the recent bearish impulse has pressured lower levels, and a weekly close below 60.97 could indicate a structural trend change, with potential bearish targets around 57.00.
The RSI is currently in an oversold zone, suggesting a potential consolidation phase or a technical rebound attempt. However, selling pressure remains high, and sentiment is negative, partly driven by global economic uncertainties and concerns about oil demand.
From an operational perspective, a move back above 65.27 could indicate a recovery phase, with targets at 69.00 and subsequently 73.00. Conversely, a break below 60.97 would open negative scenarios with a possible extension towards the lower support at 57.00. Investors remain focused on macroeconomic data and OPEC+ decisions, as potential production cuts could trigger a new rally, while an unfavorable macro environment could increase selling pressure.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Potential bottom and massive rebound to 71.00.WTI Crude Oil got oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.096, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 38.232) but is recovering its 1W candle now as it hit the bottom (LL) of the 1 year Channel Down. If the 1W candle makes a green closing, we will consider this a bottom, as the 1W RSI is also on its LL trendline) and go for a long aimed as the previous one at the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 71.00).
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TLT - Monthly Targets (Long Term)Markets are currently tight squeezing due to Trumps terrifs etc, something has to give in, based on this chart:
- TLT has found a bid at .963 Fibonacci level @ $82.42 (EXTREME RETRACE)
- Dec 2, 2024 = the 369 ratio in time for $82.42 (time & price 📐)
NEXT TARGET PROJECTION IS 50% OF THE MAX TARGET ANGLE = ($121)
(BETWEEN 2025 - 2029)
MAX TARGET = $183 - $212
(BETWEEN 2025 - 2034)