Get started

Energy Commodities

Are CL Futures starting a new bull trend in 2025?Crude Oil WTI Nymex Futures NYMEX:CL1! Big Picture: Crude Oil WTI NYMEX Futures Update – January 2025 Crude Oil WTI NYMEX futures are trading higher, with bullish price action evident at the start of 2025. Price has broken above the 2024 Composite Value Area High (CVAH) and is now approaching the Composite Value Area High from the 2022 high, as shown in the chart above. Macroeconomic Outlook From a global perspective, persistent inflation may be supported by elevated commodity prices. Higher crude oil prices, coupled with potential trade wars and tariffs, could drive up costs in major sectors, such as rare earth minerals. In this scenario, we anticipate central banks, including the Federal Reserve, maintaining higher interest rates. We believe the previously expected two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for this year may be reduced to zero. However, this creates a challenging environment for central banks. A combination of sticky inflation, resilient job markets, and low unemployment could lead to a "goldilocks" scenario. Recessionary risks will be increased unless some means of fiscal policy measures provide further support to the US economy. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. CVAH: 79.50 Resistance R1: 79.50 – 79.85 Resistance R2: 81.30 – 81.60 Neutral Level: 78.77 CVAH 2024 / Support: 75.00 Support (Yearly Open): 71.85 Scenario 1: Exhausted Buyers, Mean Reversion In this scenario, we anticipate range-bound price action, offering a potential short opportunity if buyers appear exhausted. Price action and volume analysis would need to confirm this. Look for absorption around the neutral zone or below R1/CVAH, with prices failing to push higher. A lower high and seller dominance would confirm a mean reversion short setup. Scenario 2: Breakout Above CVAH A confirmed breakout above CVAH could indicate further bullish price discovery and the potential for a new uptrend. Consolidation above CVAH followed by strong price action would provide a trigger for long positions. However, significant resistance at this level necessitates confirmation via price action and volume analysis before taking action. Scenario 3: Swing Failure at CVAH In this scenario, prices rise above the neutral zone and R1/CVAH, but sellers regain control, pushing prices lower. A swing failure candle with a long wick near the resistance zone would indicate the failure. A subsequent higher low could present a short opportunity for a mean reversion trade. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
8
WTI Oil Short: Bearish Setup After Sharp RallyOil prices have surged impressively, fueled by recent fundamental-driven market moves. However, this swift upside has led WTI crude to my point of interest, offering a prime opportunity to short against the trend. My trade strategy includes taking partials at the $74 price zone. Here’s why this setup is supported by bearish fundamentals: 1. Rising U.S. Fuel Inventories Recent data shows significant growth in U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles, hinting at a potential oversupply in the market. 2. Strengthening U.S. Dollar A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing global demand and weighing on prices. 3. Increased Non-OPEC Supply With rising production levels from non-OPEC countries, analysts expect an oversupplied market in 2025, adding further pressure on oil prices. 4. Weakening Global Demand Economic growth concerns in major markets like China and Germany are fostering expectations of reduced oil demand, reinforcing a bearish outlook. These combined factors strongly support a short position on WTI crude oil. Stay strategic, take profits along the way, and manage your risk carefully in this volatile environment! Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by AR33_
Natural Gas Short: Testing the $4 Barrier – Opportunity Knocks!Natural Gas (XNG/USD) has spiked to revisit the $4 price zone, activating my short trade. This marks the second time in two years that the price has reached this significant resistance area. The $4 level is pivotal, serving as a key psychological barrier and a historic zone of strong price action. With the position now live, I am leveraging the resistance for a retracement opportunity. Fundamentals: • Weather and Seasonal Demand: Short-term spikes in demand are driven by cold weather in the U.S., but with futures traders starting to focus on spring, we may see waning bullish momentum in the coming weeks. • Russian Gas Supply Constraints: Limited Russian gas flows to the EU continue to add uncertainty to the market, but the current rally seems to be pricing in short-term factors rather than long-term structural changes. • Historical Levels: The $4 spot price has attracted significant attention as a resistance zone, with $3.40 acting as a key support in recent months. The bounce from this level earlier this year highlights its importance. • Market Behavior: Futures traders’ sentiment and seasonality are critical drivers. As winter progresses, reduced speculative demand may favor a bearish pullback. Technicals: • Entry: $4.00 (Resistance Zone) • Target: $2.60 - 2.70 • Partials: From $3,19 • Stop Loss: $4.40 (Above Recent Highs) • Timeframe: 12H This short trade aligns with technical, fundamental, and seasonal narratives. As the price has shown rejection at this zone, I will actively monitor for a breakdown toward the $3.40 level while managing risk prudently. Stay disciplined, follow your trading plan, and remember to pay yourself as the market unfolds. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by AR33_
Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside. It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1. But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher. And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move. If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%. Just create a plan and follow it.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
CRUDE OIL // long after correctionThe market has managed to stay above the monthly impulse base (orange), and the weekly/daily has turned up. The daily has reached the target fibo 138.2 with an impulse, therefore, I expect a countertrend here on H4/H1, and I want to go long after that countertrend breaks. The target is the monthly breakdown and the daily target fibo 200. ——— EXPLAINING COLORS Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. Level colors: H4 - aqua Daily - blue Weekly - purple Monthly - magenta ——— Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ <<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
FX:USOILLong
by TheMarketFlow
WTI highest in more than 3 weeksTVC:USOIL hit its highest level in more than three months in early trading on Monday (January 13) in Asian markets, continuing last Friday's rise on market expectations that the United States will strengthen its measures. sanctions on Russia's oil industry, which will result in Russian supplies in China and India coming under pressure; In addition, the nonfarm payrolls report also boosted market confidence in the growth of crude oil demand in some parts of the US and Europe also stimulated winter crude oil fuel demand. The Biden administration on Friday imposed the broadest package of sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas revenues, a move aimed at giving Kyiv and Trump's new team leverage to reach a peace deal in Ukraine. This move is aimed at cutting Russia's revenue to continue the war. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in Russia in February 2022, the war has caused tens of thousands of casualties and reduced many cities to rubble. Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on X that the measures announced last Friday would "deal a big blow" to Moscow. He added that "The less money Russia gets from oil... the sooner peace will be restored." US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and a stable labor market at the end of the year will boost crude oil demand. Friday's closely watched Labor Department jobs report also showed fewer long-term unemployed people in December and the average length of unemployment shortened. Increases in these indicators have previously raised concerns about a labor market downturn. December employment rose 256,000, the most since March. Data for October and November were revised to show 8,000 fewer jobs were added than previously reported. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% in November. The average unemployment rate last year was 4.0% and in 2023 it will be 3.6%. In Friday's report, the government also released revisions to the past five years of seasonally adjusted household survey data, from which the unemployment rate is calculated. With last Friday's jobs data settling in, this week will see a lot of US data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. US President-elect Donald Trump's team is expected to make many comments before the inauguration ceremony on January 20. China's trade data, economic activity and GDP will also be the focus of the market in general and the Crude Oil market in particular. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL continues its uptrend after breaking through the rising price channel noticed by readers in the previous issue. And currently the upward momentum is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, once WTI crude oil breaks above this level it can continue to increase further with the target then around 82.75USD in the short term. However, the Relative Strength Index shows that the RSI is operating in the overbought area, which is a signal that there is not much room for price increases ahead, and also signals a possible downward correction. happen. However, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is currently bullish with support from the trend price channel, EMA21 and the nearest support level at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the price channel and EMA21, any price declines should only be considered short-term corrections, notable levels will also be listed as follows. Support: 76.33 – 75.20 – 74.61USD Resistance: 78.98USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
1
Weekly and Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower following the non-farm payroll data release. As noted in yesterday’s analysis, the possibility of a sharp drop in the third wave of selling on the 240-minute chart was highlighted and has largely materialized. The monthly 5-day moving average (20,880) emphasized this month acted as support, forming a lower wick. On the weekly chart, the MACD has crossed below the Signal line, generating a sell signal. The index is positioned between the 3-day, 5-day, and 10-day moving averages above and the 20-day moving average below, suggesting the possibility of a range-bound market this week. If the market moves upward at the beginning of the week, it may decline later, and conversely, if it drops initially, a rebound may occur later in the week. The upper range is projected at 21,360–21,400, while the lower range is expected to be below 20,880. Flexible responses to early-week movements are crucial, especially with Wednesday’s CPI release likely to serve as a key turning point. On the daily chart, the MACD and Signal lines remain below the zero line, making sell-side strategies near the 3-day or 5-day moving averages preferable during rebounds. Downward movement toward the 120-day moving average is possible, but there’s a strong likelihood of a rebound after forming a lower wick, so avoid chasing the sell-off. On the 240-minute chart, while selling pressure remains strong in the third wave of the downtrend, support and a potential trend reversal could occur below 20,700. Overall, a sell-on-rebound strategy is advantageous today. Oil Crude oil surged on the possibility of U.S. sanctions on Russian crude exports. As previously noted, oil continues to display a pattern of reversing trends and sharply rising from the bottom. In pre-market trading, prices have already surpassed $78, but with the significant divergence from the 5-day moving average, caution is warranted today. On the weekly chart, the divergence from the 5-week moving average and the presence of previous highs around the $78 range suggest that even if prices rise further, chasing the rally should be avoided. The most favorable scenario this week involves buying on dips near the 5-week moving average, with corrections potentially reaching $73.4–$74. On the daily chart, more time is needed for shorter-term moving averages, such as the 20-day and 60-day, to align with current prices. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, generating a buy signal. However, if prices fail to surge further, divergence in the MACD could occur. Pay attention to potential sell signals and additional declines. As the rapid rise calls for a correction, prices are likely to consolidate around $78 during pre-market trading, making range-bound strategies favorable. Gold Gold surged on Friday due to reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut following employment surprises. On the weekly chart, gold has formed a bullish candle, breaking above key short-term moving averages. However, the significant divergence between the MACD and Signal lines suggests that surpassing the previous high near 2,760 will be challenging. On the daily chart, the MACD is above the zero line, and the Signal line is trending upward, showing a buying trend. Buying on dips near the strong support zone at the 5-day and 60-day moving averages around 2,690 is a favorable short-term strategy. With additional upward movement possible, a buy-on-dips approach is recommended. However, volatility is expected to increase with Tuesday’s PPI and Wednesday’s CPI data, so plan accordingly. On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum continues, with the RSI entering the overbought zone, making premature selling risky. Weekly Overview This week, early movements are likely to continue last week’s trends, with a potential inflection point around Wednesday’s CPI data. Manage risks carefully, and have a successful trading week! ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bearish Market -Buy Levels: 20,945 / 20,900 / 20,780 / 20,740 / 20,680 -Sell Levels: 21,110 / 21,210 / 21,310 Oil - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 76.55 / 76.00 / 75.60 / 74.60 -Sell Levels: 78.35 / 78.85 / 79.45 / 80.00 Gold - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 2,713 / 2,703 / 2,695 / 2,685 / 2,677 -Sell Levels: 2,726 / 2,735 / 2,742 / 2,753 / 2,759 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are set as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. Wishing you a successful trading day! If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying after a 244 point rejection is not good either, since the upside is likely limited. Bulls are still in full control here but the last time we traded above 78 was July, so I have zero interest in buying. Still. Did I miss most of the up move? Yes. Do I care? No. I try to never buy high in trading ranges and every time I can refrain from doing it I practice following my rules and that is much more valuable than catching some of the breakouts. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have made a higher high above 77, which is obviously bullish. We have a clear bull channel on the daily chart, which is where the problem for the bulls is. They are at so many prior highs and the top of the channel, that buying above 76 is a tough spot and hard to structure a good long trade around it. If you buy 76, your stop has to be 72.6 and that’s 340 ticks. For this to be a 1:1 trade we would have to hit 79.4 and the last time we did was July. It could work but the probability is likely not on your side here. Any long below 75 or closer to 73 would be a very different story and a reasonable trade. 80 is the obvious next target above. Invalidation is below 72.6. bear case: Bears still have not much. We are trading at many prior resistances but until they can generate more selling pressure than one 1h bar, they don’t have anything going for them. I do think the sell spike down to 75.42 was already enough to fulfill the breakout-retest and we could continue up from here. Bears would need a 1h close below 75 to get some arguments on their side but given the current strength of the move, it will probably be another bull flag to break out above again. Invalidation is above 80. outlook last week: short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. → Last Sunday we traded 73.96 and now we are at 76.57. Bulls kept at it, decent outlook. short term: Bullish again but buying above 76 is probably not a good idea. I want to get long closer to 73/74 once momentum upwards gets going again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear trend line and added bull channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Quick Gains from Black Gold: A Short-Term Strategy for Oil🚀 Bullish Analysis for Crude Oil: Current Price: 73.11 USD. Support: The price is bouncing off the lower trend line of our ascending channel, acting like a solid floor! 🛑 RSI: At 39.10, we're not even halfway to overbought territory, plenty of room to climb! 📈 Entry: Buy now at 73.11 USD. Take Profit Levels: 🎯 Take Profit 1: 73.60 USD 🎯 Take Profit 2: 74.25 USD 🏆 Take Profit 3: 75.00 USD Stop Loss: Set your safety net at 72.40 USD, just below our support line. 🛡 This setup is not just good, it's electrifying! With a stop loss that's a safe distance away, you're setting up for a potential win with a solid risk-reward ratio. Let's ride this wave! 🌊
TVC:USOILLong
by ValchevFinance
1
Oil is heading for $80Light Crude Oil (CL) is showing bullish signs after the confirmation of an upside break of the long term downtrend line “K” at $73. Now the contract is hitting the resistance of $76 where if it breaks to the upside then the space that can be stretched "unfortunately" goes up to $80. Above that, inflation alarm bells will start to ring. It is a thorny element that can spoil the upward momentum of the markets since it will make central bankers more frugal in their decisions to further reduce interest rates. For something to change here, the contract will have to declare a strong weakness of permeability at the level of $76 to $77.
NYMEX:CL1!
by manthos
USOIL USOIL is still in an uptrend. Previous analysis on 1/12/2024, the price is up as expected and we expect the price to test the resistance zone 78-79. If the price cannot break through the 79 level, we expect the price to go down in the short term. Consider selling the red zone. 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
FX:USOILShort
by Serana2324
7
USOIL Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 76.54 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 75.36 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILShort
by AnabelSignals
1
CL Week Review 01/06/25 - 01/10/25Looks like my Directional Bias for CL was off. Instead of price coming lower to fill in the BISI and take the PDLs it rallied higher through the Volume Imbalance and raided all the BSL. Now that wick higher on Friday did not stop at a random spot. Look closely and you will notice its the Premium Daily 50% CE level of the wick and price reversed nicely off from there. Now the question remains does price justify to continue higher and take the BSL at 78.46 or does price reverse from there and then target the SSL and the D BISI? Currently its still looking Bullish since price closed above the Volume Imbalance and the PDH from Thu Oct 10 2024 at 76.24 but lets see how price opens on Sunday and we can definitely expect a volatile week since there is a good amount of economic news drivers.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ProphetTheTrader