The Market Matrix - DXY, Gold, NAS & Crude for Feb 7 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix. Covering Gold, DXY, Nasdaq & Crude Oil.
Energy Commodities
Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Pattern, Triangle Formation, and Key Back in January, despite strong rise, crude oil has seen limited upside and fully reversed the path. This is partly due to the Trump administration’s goal of bringing crude oil prices lower, with plans to refill the US strategic reserves. In fact data from the Energy Information Administration, showing that production has been gradually increasing since summer of 2023, around the time energy prices hit a swing high near $95. Since then, crude oil has consistently formed lower swing highs.
So, if the Trump administration will really boost the oil production, it will likely put more downward pressure on energy prices and help ease inflation; the CPI y/y data, which is highly correlated with crude oil prices, could decline as well as shown on the weekly chart (but this will change if / when economy “booms”).
From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking an ongoing A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern, but wave E could still push prices a bit higher, for a rally in the next few weeks, because the pattern appears incomplete. But, once this triangle concludes, I expect a break to the downside. This would likely coincide with lower inflation expectations as mentioned; thus lower US yields, and a weaker US dollar.
Overall, my assumption is that crude oil will eventually break below $64 per barrel in 2025!
GH
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.98 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 73.50 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 69.58 which is a swing-low support.
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USoil is at right spot to go long !!!Level 70.50 going to be crucial
70-71 being the area which was long before a resistance on higher time frame now could be acting as support which has good probabililty along the way price also tapped into unmitigated demand zone which might be clearing the leftover supply that came from top
on the long side we can aim at the target of 74.50 which is almost 5%
and 77.50 which is 10%
so USOIL could be good bet for swing trade
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed slightly higher with low volatility. As mentioned yesterday, the daily chart shows that the index is holding support at the 3-day moving average, while the MACD remains in an upward buy trend. However, resistance is evident along the upper trendline connecting previous highs.
Today, a pullback toward the 5-day moving average should be considered, and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be a key catalyst in determining whether the uptrend continues.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, suggesting a consolidation phase that could gradually lift moving averages before another bullish wave emerges. Overall, a buy-on-dip approach remains favorable, particularly if a pre-market pullback toward the 5-day MA occurs. However, given the potential for increased volatility from today's data release, risk management is crucial.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the 3-day moving average. However, downside support remains strong, making further declines difficult, which favors buy-side positioning. Since oil has now tested the 3-day MA, today’s strategy should focus on selling near the 5-day MA if a rally occurs.
Both long and short positions should factor in weekly closing dynamics, as weekend geopolitical risks may lead to gap openings on Monday.
On the 240-minute chart, oil remains in a downward trend, but signs of base formation are emerging. The MACD is nearing a potential golden cross, so traders should watch closely for a momentum shift.
Additionally, geopolitical risks are increasing, with Trump tightening sanctions on Iran, adding to oil market volatility. Given these conditions, buying dips remains the preferred approach, but risk management is essential.
Gold
Gold closed lower, facing a sharp pullback after reaching the psychological level of 2900. The deep retracement suggests profit-taking at key resistance levels.
Despite this correction, the daily chart still maintains a buy trend, and as long as gold holds above the 10-day moving average on a closing basis, the overall bullish bias remains intact. However, given that the MACD is completing its third bullish wave, a consolidation phase is likely as the MACD and Signal line begin to narrow. For now, buyers should focus on entering at lower levels to optimize risk-reward.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has emerged, leading to the current pullback. However, the MACD and Signal line are significantly below the zero line, meaning that despite the downtrend, buying interest could emerge on any further dips. This structure reduces the appeal of chasing short positions.
Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is a major risk event, known for triggering extreme volatility in gold. As one of the most critical economic indicators for gold traders, managing exposure ahead of the release is crucial. Expect range-bound price action before the report, with a potential breakout afterward.
Stay disciplined and manage risk carefully, as today’s NFP release will drive market volatility. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21820 / 21750 / 21710 / 21625 / 21510
-Sell Levels: 21870 / 21930 / 22010 / 22070 / 22135
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.20 / 69.80 / 69.20 / 68.30
-Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.20 / 72.70
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2876 / 2871 / 2862 / 2855
-Sell Levels: 2885 / 2892 / 2896 / 2902
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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USOIL- one n single support, make it or break it scnerios#USOIL... market just reached at his one of the most important supporting area that is around
69.90 -70.10
And that will play key role in next move.
Keep close that region and don't hold your buying positions below that region.
Stay sharp.
Good luck
Trade wisely
USOIL Breaks Key Support: Targeting 70.50TVC:USOIL has broken a key support zone and retested it, confirming strong bearish momentum with clear rejection candles. The previous support has now flipped to resistance, further reinforcing the likelihood of continued downside movement.
With this rejection confirmed, I anticipate a move downward toward the 70.50 level, aligning with the prevailing bearish trend. This setup suggests a high probability of bearish continuation in the near term.
If you have anything to add or a different perspective, I’d love to hear from you in the comments!
NATGAS CORRECTION AHEAD|SHORT|
✅NATGAS surged again to retest the resistance of 3.569$
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish pullback and a move down
SHORT🔥
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Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1!
This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions.
Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach.
Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones.
To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators:
On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels:
Green zones indicate bull support areas.
Red zones represent bearish support areas.
Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points.
The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point:
A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas.
Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it.
Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are:
VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile.
VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution.
VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution.
Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution.
Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants.
We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile.
Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process:
What has the market done?
What is it trying to do?
How good of a job is it doing?
What is more likely to happen from here?
These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week.
This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market.
To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out:
Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap :
The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred.
Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts).
Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range.
Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher.
This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red.
Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways :
We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation.
Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected.
Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process.
This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process.
As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge.
If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
WTI OIL 4H RSI Bullish Divergence hinting to trend reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 15 High. Since yesterday it appears for the first time to have withdrawn from making Lower Lows. In fact, the 4H RSI has been on Higher Lows since January 27, which is a technical Bullish Divergence.
This hints to a potential trend reversal to bullish and the pattern that we can identify emerging is a Channel Up. This current potential bottoming pattern, resembles the January 08 Low which rallied above its 2.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we can target the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 76.50.
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USOIL Is Going Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 72.211.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 74.793 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WTI Oil H1 | Pullback resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.75 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 72.30 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 70.64 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the USOIL with the target of 75.80 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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Crude OIL $UKOIL Classic patternI've seen this pattern many times over the last 5 years on different instruments, and its working out to over 50%
The essence of this pattern is a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down.
An instrument like oil is quite trivial and it can fall without taking liquidity off the top.
But I want to share a few examples of my theory working out, where the upper resistance line is broken before the drop-down
Best regards EXCAVO
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq broke out of its consolidation range and closed higher. On the daily chart, the index had been moving within a box range, with MACD and the Signal line flattening. However, following the breakout, the MACD has resumed its upward trajectory, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
With a strong breakout candle in play, the market is likely to maintain a short-term buying trend, centered around the 3-day moving average. While tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report presents potential volatility risks, the overall daily uptrend remains intact.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have crossed above the zero line, entering bullish territory. While further upside is possible, imbalanced order flow suggests we may see mixed price action, with alternating bullish and bearish candles.
Given the current setup, buying on pullbacks remains the most favorable approach for today.
CRUDE OIL
Oil declined following the crude inventory report. On the daily chart, the price failed to reclaim the 10-day moving average, and the MACD-Signal line spread remains wide, indicating a lack of immediate convergence.
A strong bearish breakout candle has formed, making short positions near the 3-day moving average a preferable strategy for today. However, the $70 level has established itself as a key support zone, meaning that buying opportunities may emerge in this area.
Price action suggests range-bound movement, and for additional downside to materialize, the daily Signal line needs to drop below the zero line. As it remains above zero, a short-term MACD-Signal convergence attempt is likely in the near term, though a direct breakout seems unlikely due to the current wide spread.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has reappeared, driving continued downside pressure. However, if prices avoid a sharp decline, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts at this stage risky.
Additionally, mixed catalysts, including Iran sanctions and increased U.S. oil drilling activity, are creating conflicting momentum, increasing the likelihood of sharp price swings. Stop-loss management is crucial in this environment.
GOLD
Gold closed higher but formed an upper wick, signaling profit-taking at recent highs. On the daily chart, gold broke above $2,900, demonstrating a strong, one-way buying trend.
However, given the sharp rally, this is a high-risk zone for chasing longs, as profit-taking pressure is likely to increase. Since gold has been moving in a stair-step pattern, the best approach is to buy on pullbacks at well-defined support and resistance levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is in its third-wave buy phase, maintaining the bullish momentum. Once this third wave completes and the MACD crosses below the Signal line (a death cross), gold may enter a consolidation phase or a corrective move, leading to sideways price action.
Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is expected to significantly impact gold, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction.
The optimal approach remains buying on dips, but near $2,900, short positions for range-bound trading should also be considered.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21710 / 21675 / 21620 / 21570 / 21510
-Sell Levels: 21895 / 21935 / 21970 / 22010
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.90 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.30
-Sell Levels: 71.65 / 72.10 / 72.60 / 73.20
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2881 / 2875 / 2870 / 2864 / 2859
-Sell Levels: 2896 / 2902 / 2909
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Possible Crude Down to $30/BarrelSince the covid oil bull market we've yet to have a breakdown as supply catches back up with equilibrium. I would expect at some point we get a price back down to $30. First major support would potentially be $52.
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Relentless selling on every rip. Bulls can’t catch a break and only a daily close above 75 will change that. Bears will likely get 70 tomorrow and then we will either see some bigger support or acceleration downwards.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Well, some bulls are buying heavily for an hour or two and then it crumbles again. Bulls have no arguments and they better make 70 support or 65 is next.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are selling every rip. That’s about it. Their next target is 70 and for now I think it could be support for longer but we will have to see. I currently not trading this much. Bears have a wedge down and are still inside a bigger bear channel. Try to look for shorts close to the upper bear trend line with stop 75.2.
Invalidation is a daily close above 75.
short term: Bearish on pull-backs higher for target 70 but then neutral again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling every big rip continues to be the name of the game.
WTI selloff stalls around cluster of big levelsWTI crude has seen a 11% correction from its January high, and 11 of the past 13 days since the high have been down days. But there is a glimmer of hope for bulls as prices are holding above several key levels of support, just above the $70 handle.
Tuesday's bullish pinbar held above respected the 200-day EMA and 50% retracement levels, while respecting the 200 and 50-day EMAs. It also saw a minor (and ultimately false) break of the $71 handle and November high.
While Wednesday was a down day, it was also an inside day. And this suggests a hesitancy to break immediately lower with demand around $71.
This may be on the scrappy side, but bulls could consider longs around the current lows and seek a rebound to either Wednesday's high, just beneath the $73. Though a higher target could be considered should a fundamentally bullish catalyst arrive.
The bias remains bullish above $70, but $70.49 could also be used to improve the reward-to-risk ratio.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
WTI CRUDE OIL: Rebound to 75.50 very probable.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.837, MACD = 0.030, ADX = 37.618) which is natural as it's trading inside a Channel Down. The pattern formed a 4H Death Cross yesterday and even though it's technically bearish, the last time it was formed (October 24th 2024), it marked a bottom 4 days later. The bottom was formed on a HL trendline and if it gets repeated, we should see a HL rebound soon. As with November's rebound, we will be targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 75.50).
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Crude oil remains on a bearish pathOil prices have fallen noticeably since Trump’s last minute deal to delay tariffs. Yesterday’s rebound on Trump's "maximum pressure" plan for Iran has proven to be short-lived. The negative effect of a US-China trade war on demand, as well as rising global supplies, is what is holding back prices. Even if Trump hadn’t delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, when considering both supply and demand factors, the overall impact on crude oil prices may well have been limited anyway. In any event, oil prices extended their losses after the OPEC+ agreed to stick to its policy and raise output gradually from April. Prices have fallen further today on the back of the latest inventories report from the US. A big 8.7 million barrel build was reported, which surprised the market given only a 2.4m build was expected. Against a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and the potential for increased non-OPEC supply growth, mainly in the US, the crude oil forecast remains modestly bearish.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a modest downtrend, with WTI consistently forming lower highs since September 2023. A brief breakout above this trend in January met strong resistance just below $80, pushing prices back under the trend line by month-end. With the bearish bias reaffirmed and WTI slipping below the 200-day moving average again, downside risks remain dominant.
In terms of support, the area between $70.00 to $70.70 marks a key battle ground. This is where the price of oil last staged a rally from at the back end of last year. If we see a bounce here, I will then look for that bounce to fade as prices come up to test some key resistance levels…
Key resistance levels to watch include the recently broken support at $72.50, the 200-day average at $74.30 and the psychologically significant $75.00 mark. The bearish trend line hovers around $76.00.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Oil Long - Capitulate First, Rise LaterMajority is long so give your SL some space while waiting for moon.
Oil | HnS Pattern Back to $68 SupportPrice action is currently retesting the neckline, would like to see more play towards $75, possibly a spike-out for sellers to get in higher like the last time
⚙
The SMA is also offering dynamic resistance as we see further down pressure
🎯
Target goal $68.
USOIL Is Nearing The Daily Trend!!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 69 zone, USOIL is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 69 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
