TP HIT ON USOIL | CL1!I posted earlier today to buy on Oil, and the market reached our TP now it started reversing.
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Energy Commodities
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Cenergy Holdings:The incredible growth story extends beyond 2030In the case of Cenergy Holdings (CENER), words are unnecessary.
The growth story of this group is incredible and extends beyond 2030. The comparison of this year's nine months with last year is characteristic, with the percentage figures having escaped, such as the +44% in EBITDA from 137 million euros to 196.8 million euros and the more than doubling in pre-tax profits of 123 million euros from 60.1 million euros and after-tax profits of 100.26 million euros from 47.16 million euros, reminiscent more of an IT company than a giant industrial group.
So in this group that is going to reach 400 million euros in operating profits in the next two years, before even putting the new Hellenic Cables factory in the US into full operation, the long-term chart of the stock shows a strong upward trend.
The stock, taking prices within the “W” channel, has broken resistances such as those at 3.465 euros, 7.20 euros and around 10.18 euros, in order to continue towards 12.80 euros. The extension of this pattern gives prices even above 14 euros.
BUY USOIL | CL1!Good morning traders!
Today's trade is on Oil, you can buy and set the same target and stop as mine.
Follow for more!
Crude Opportunity Part 1Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on.
Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next.
For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick.
In essence, the current weekly Crude Oil Futures CL1! show a similar set up ready for a spike and rally for Crude Oil. No fundamental reason (yet) but the technicals are projecting a billish scenario based on the technical set up.
Part 2 will look more in-depth and zoom into the recent time frame...
Stay tuned if you are keen...
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 72.65 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 71.10 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 75.13 which is a pullback resistance.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bullish Signal
Crude Oil was in a deep consolidation since October.
The market was stuck within a huge horizontal range on a daily.
With the market opening after holidays, Oil looks strongly bullish.
A breakout of a resistance line of the range, indicates the completion
of a bullish accumulation.
It opens a potential for more growth.
Next resistance on focus is 75.55
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Nat Gas: Trading the WeatherNYMEX: Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! )
On December 31, 2024, the lead contract of NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas futures closed at $3.6330 per MMBtu. This marked a strong gain of 44.5% year-over-year, making it the best performing active futures contract for the year.
Nat Gas is one of the most actively traded commodities. According to CME Group:
• Henry Hub booked record trading volume in 2024. Average daily volumes for futures and options were 566,000 and 242,000 contracts, respectively.
• As of last Friday, Open Interests were 1,511,978 for futures and 775,176 for options.
The Basic
Natural gas is a leading energy source for global economy. While clean energy generates a lot of buzz these days, natural gas still carries the biggest load in power generation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. electricity production at 4.18 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023.
• About 43.1% of the electricity was generated by natural gas.
• Nuclear power contributed to 18.6%, while coal had a 16.2% share.
• Combined, Renewables accounted for a 21.4% share, including 10.2% from Wind, 5.7% from Hydro, and 3.9% from Solar.
The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. In the case of electricity, it is hard to store while its demand is highly unpredictable. New storage technology is limited by capacity and high cost. With Nat Gas being the biggest energy source, unforeseen changes in power demand could send shock waves into the market.
Weather factors, in particular temperature, have the biggest impact in power demand.
• In the summer months, the biggest power usage is for air conditioning cooling. Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is above 68 degrees Fahrenheit.
• In the winter months, the biggest power usage is for heating home and offices. Heating Degree Day (HDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is below 68 degrees Fahrenheit.
Energy traders deploy CDD/HDD analysis and weather forecast models to predict temperature trends, electricity demand and the subsequent natural gas use.
The Weather Shocks
On December 29, 2024, the Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released a weather forecast for January showing colder than average temperature in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes.
In a separate report, AccuWeather meteorologists said that the colder air could trigger a winter storm with substantial snow and ice for a significant portion of the month’s first half. They added that the drop will begin in the middle and latter part of next week.
When the futures market opened the next day, the price of Henry Hub futures surged 20%, hitting a new 52-week high of $4.20.
Earlier in the winter, Germany experienced the so-called “Dunkelflaute” with no wind and a clouded sky. This is the worst scenario for wind and solar power. As Germany is heavily reliant on renewable energy, when the weather fails to cooperate, its power supply drops by half, sending electricity prices sky high.
The huge supply gap prompted energy companies to turn on gas-fueled backup power plants, pushing the Dutch TTF ( NYMEX:TTF1! ) natural gas contracts to a record high.
At the time of this writing, severe winter storms are sweeping across the Central Plains in the U.S., bringing heavy snow, sleet, and frozen rain from Kansas to Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Washington, D.C. Apart from the winter hazards, I expect higher power consumption to keep people warm from the below-average temperatures.
Trading with Micro Henry Hub Futures
Micro Henry Hub natural gas futures (MNG) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s liquid benchmark Henry Hub futures (NG) contracts. The Micro futures have a contract size of 1,000 MMBtu, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. The Micro contracts allow traders to control a large contract value with a small amount of capital.
With Friday settlement price of $3.354, each February contract (MNGG5) has a notional value of $3,354. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $366.
Since its Monday high, Henry Hub prices have plunged 20%. Subsequent updated weather forecasts now predicted warmer trends for the Eastern US, which could curb heating demand for Nat Gas. Losses accelerated last Friday after the EIA reported that Nat Gas inventories for the week of December 27th fell -116 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -128 bcf.
In my opinion, the draw was lower due to the reduced economic activity around the Christmas holiday. For the same token, we could see a smaller draw during the New Year. However, I consider this data seasonal outliners, rather than a longer-term trend.
Global warming doesn’t necessarily mean warmer winters. Higher global temperature brings moisture from the ocean, with wetter atmosphere generating more extreme weather events. I expect winter temperature patterns to shift to much colder-than-normal, with cool anomalies poised to stick around key population centers deep into the winter.
As we have seen in the past, unpredictable weather events could send large shocks to natural gas prices. With Micro Henry Hub contracts, traders could potentially realize sizable gains with a small capital requirement.
Hypothetically, if the February prices move up 10% to $3.689 with lower temperature forecasts, the $0.3354 price gain would translate into $335.4 for a long futures position, given the contract size at 1,000 MMBtu. Using the initial margin of $366 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 99.6% (=335.4/366).
The long futures position would lose money if Nat Gas prices continued to trend lower.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Bullish until bears come around. Big bull surprise to start 2025 with strong follow through above 72. Market has still a bit room to the bear trend line, that started in 2024-04, around 75. I can’t see this breaking above 77.38 and I have my doubts about a break of the trend line, so longs are no option for me here. I want to see selling pressure next week and wait for decent second signal before shorting this.
comment: Big bull surprise early in 2025. I did not expect the market to just melt through 3 months of lower highs. We now have the big bear trend line right above us around 75 and it’s reasonable to expect market to get there before we could see bigger profit taking. Any short would need a stop 77.4 but I still think the odds are very good for the bears that we won’t make a higher high. Volume is still garbage so once we have decent selling pressure, I will take that swing short.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls want 75 and a retest of the bear trend line. Easy as that. They could overshoot it some but market has respected it two times before so I expect the trend line to hold. Volume is atrocious so it’s possible that the market just melts lower over the next 1-2 weeks after the retest. It would be very strong by the bulls if they keep the market above 70 now.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears have nothing for now but since we have made lower highs since 2023-09, they expect this to be one as well and the closer they can short to 77 the better. It’s too early to short and bears need to build much bigger selling pressure. We will probably have to go sideways first before this can come down again.
Invalidation is above 77.4.
short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, Nasdaq & DXY for January 5 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
Actionable insights for the Gold, Crude Oil, Nasdaq & DXY Markets.
Possible strong trend change in oilOil is at a critical chart crossroads with the Light Crude Oil contract flirting with an upward break of the strong long-term downtrend line “K” that has been passing through the $73 area in the last two sessions. On Friday morning when the article was written, the contract was trading at $72.90.
A possible now confirmed upward break of this line will make it difficult for the contract’s sellers as it will have the power to open the way to $76. Above that, the price of $80 per barrel will “flash”.
On the other hand, however, the apparent inability of oil to pass above $73 and the “K” will mark a third consecutive exhaustion peak, pushing the contract back below $69.
It is of course best not to attempt to push oil prices above $76 because it will begin to "undo" the positive scenario of further weakening inflation.
Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
NATGAS // Can you imagine $1?This weekly candle looks bearish. It's even more bearish if we take into account that it was printed on the monthly impulse base.
It means that the monthly trend is still short, and if the weekly gets aligned, the price may target the last clean weekly breakout (red), where the countertrend line also breaks, and where the $1 for natural becomes a nice target.
Do you see it coming?
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
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USOIL PredictionWelcome to our trading analysis! It’s great to see dedicated traders like you pursuing success with focus and determination. Trading is not just about profits—it’s about learning, adapting, and growing with every market movement. Today, we’re analyzing USOIL, which is currently trading at $74, with a bullish target of $100. The market is forming a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish setup signaling a potential upward breakout. Before the price reaches the target, it needs to confirm a breakout from this wedge, which will mark the beginning of a strong rally. This pattern indicates a high reward-to-risk opportunity for traders who patiently wait for the breakout confirmation. Watch for strong volume and momentum during the breakout phase, as these are critical indicators of strength. Stay focused, trust your analysis, and remember that consistency and discipline are the keys to long-term trading success.
Weekly Market Forecast Jan 6, 2025This is an outlook for the week of Jan 6-10th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices look set to move higher, with the possible exception of the DOW.
The metals will underperform against a strong USD, which remains so in the near term.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WTI - 2025 Q1 Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas!💡 Midterm forecast: (Daily Time-frame)
While the price is above the support 64.00, resumption of uptrend is expected.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 66.51 on 11/18/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 75.44 and maximum to Major Resistance (77.92) is expected.
Take Profits:
68.80
72.27
75.44
77.92
80.10
83.96
87.00
93.80
100.80
109.19
126.35
💡 Short Term forecast: (H4 Time-frame):
The bullish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is above the strong Support at 70.53
Forecast:
1- Correction wave toward the Buy Zone
2- Another Upward Impulse wave toward Higher TPs
SL: Below 70.53
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Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47!🚀 Crude Oil (WTI) Bullish Breakout – Eyes on $78.47! 🚀
📊 Trade Setup:
Entry Price: $73.12
Take Profit 1: $73.99
Take Profit 2: $76.20
Take Profit 3: $78.47
Stop Loss: $71.21 (below key support zone)
📈 Analysis:
After months of trading in a range, WTI Crude Oil has broken above the upper boundary of the channel , signaling a bullish breakout. This breakout is supported by:
1️⃣ China's Economic Optimism: Growth pledges and potential stimulus are boosting demand expectations.
2️⃣ Technical Momentum: Key resistance at $71.50 and $74 has been breached, opening the path toward higher targets.
3️⃣ Tight Weekly Chart Range: A big move was anticipated, and the bulls delivered!
🎯 Targets:
With momentum on our side, we’re targeting:
$73.99: Quick resistance retest.
$76.20: Alignment with prior highs.
$78.47: Major resistance and breakout zone.
🔹 Risk Management:
Stop loss at $71.21, well below the key support zone, ensures controlled risk in case of reversal.
⚡ Are you riding the breakout, or watching from the sidelines? Let me know your thoughts below! ⚡
Oil Bulls Go for the Break into Yearly OpenOil prices are threatening a major breakout here after clearing resistance yesterday at the objective 2024 yearly open near 72.14 .
The focus is on todays close with respect to the 61.8% retracement at 73.90 . A daily close above would keep the focus on a possible rally towrads the 78.6% retracement at 75.89 and the October high-close at 77.25 - note the highlighted slope confluence (look for a larger reaction there IF reached).
Initial support back at 72.14 with bullish invalidation now raised to 71.02 .
MB
Berry Corporation - 13.5% dividend yieldBerry is in the oil and gas sector, where its current low share price and improved financials offer upside potential, albeit with higher risk
Murphy Oil Corp START BUY at 14The company in the energy sector is undertaking efforts to optimize debts and increase efficiency in production. Stable dividends and share buybacks create an interesting investment opportunity
Will Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Redefine Global Energy Markets?In a world where geopolitical tensions and energy markets dance an intricate waltz, the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear program have emerged as a pivotal factor in global oil dynamics. The Biden administration's deliberation of military options against Iranian atomic facilities has introduced a new variable into the complex equation of international energy markets, forcing investors and analysts to reassess their traditional market models.
The strategic significance of the Middle East's oil infrastructure, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, hangs in delicate balance as diplomatic chess moves unfold. With approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply flowing through this crucial chokepoint, the stakes extend far beyond regional politics, touching every corner of the global economy. Market participants have begun incorporating these heightened risks into their pricing models, reflecting a new reality where geopolitical considerations carry as much weight as traditional supply and demand metrics.
The energy sector stands at a crossroads where strategic petroleum reserves, investment strategies, and risk management protocols face unprecedented challenges. Portfolio managers and energy traders must navigate this complex landscape while balancing short-term volatility against long-term strategic positioning. As the situation continues to evolve, the global oil market serves as a mirror reflecting the broader implications of international security dynamics, challenging conventional wisdom about energy market fundamentals and forcing a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models.
