Energy Commodities
Gldobal growth in the long term Gldobal growth in the long term
Oil is a manipulated market and 70 is traceable as a fundamental level of consensus. At any rate, it's being tried to be defended and the US is probably in on it. Trump, as is obvious, was just saying what he needed to say for the voters, what he was told to say by the dudes at Palantir processing big data. Trump's intelligence appears to be zero. So what he said can safely be forgotten. And remember that there were no bans without Trump, everything that was commercially viable was mined without him. And those who are extracting, and not flapping their tongues, the price below 70 is unprofitable, that's the first assumption. I'm not insisting on anything.
Now, if you look at the oil market - not so long ago there was nothing to see, but now it looks like this huge downward complex wave may be over. If I'm right, we can assume that it already has enough sub-cycles of all degrees to be considered complete. Plus, the diagonal nature of both of these triangles is precisely what is meant by trying to sort of “reach” or get closer to some level. The longer the negative trends for this market persisted, the closer - and with a narrower range - prices approached the minimum important level, then stayed there for a long time in a very narrow range, but as soon as there were reasons for a bounce, they bounced back up.
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USOIL Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 72.837.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 68.454.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Brent - good start of oil in the new year!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $75 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward.
Over the past three months, the Brent crude oil market has emerged as the largest commodity market in the world, with a daily trading volume of $75.2 billion. The credit rating agency Fitch has stated that geopolitical tensions may increase volatility in the global oil and gas sector. The agency expects global oil demand in 2025 to grow at a similar pace to 2024, although this growth is likely to be slower than in 2022 and 2023.
President Joe Biden is reportedly planning to impose a 20-year ban on leasing public lands for oil and gas exploration in Nevada. According to Fox News, this move is being considered in the final weeks of Biden’s presidency, just ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. This prohibition would prevent companies from leasing federal lands in the region for oil and gas exploration or extraction activities.
As reported by Axios, Biden has been reviewing potential options for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This action would only be considered if Iran takes significant steps toward building nuclear weapons before January 20. Reports indicate that Iran has enriched uranium to 60%, which is close to the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material. Additionally, advancements in Iran’s centrifuge technology suggest the country could achieve this level within a matter of days.
However, reports also caution that developing a nuclear warhead would still require at least one year. These assessments come as Biden approaches the end of his term and Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency.
Trump’s approach to Iran and its nuclear program is a topic of great interest, given his record during his first term. Previously, Trump adopted a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran and withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The question now arises whether he will pursue a similar course of action or take a different approach in his new administration.
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Neutral. 4th consecutive bull bar on the daily chart and it’s the biggest of the 4. We are close to a bear trend line from the triangle (depending on how you want to draw it) and I rather think this is the climactic end of the rally for now and we pull back more. I can be totally wrong and market breaks above the trend line to retest the August high above 76 but trend lines are support/resistance until broken. Neutral because I think it’s too high to buy and too early to short. The close above 73 was really strong though.
comment: Bulls with a strong break above the November high and they closed above 73. We are now in a dead zone between 72.35 and 74 (or the area around the bear trend line). We could see a bigger pull-back down to 72 or 71 before we test the bear trend line. Longs in the dead zone are bad trades, no matter how you put it. I do think the breakout is strong enough to wait for pull-backs and go long then.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 71 - 74
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side now but buying this close to the bear trend line is probably unwise. Many bulls will probably want to see a decent pull-back and form a better channel up. Any pull-back should stay above 70/71 though or more could see it as a bull trap like all other highs above 72 were for 3 months now.
Invalidation is below 71.
bear case: Bears had to give up once market continued above 72.35. Can they hold short and scale in higher with a stop 78? Not really. They will never reach even 1x their risk, so we will probably have to wait and see where the interest in buying vanishes and market stalls. Bears want to start shorting as close to the bear trend line as possible and if we just use the July & October highs, we could go up to 75. Bears really don’t have much here. Best they can hope for is to stall the market below 75 and wait for more bulls to take profits.
Invalidation is above 74.
short term: Bullish. Buying near the 2h 20ema or most recent bull trend line is reasonable. Targets above are 74 and maybe 75. I will wait for a better pull-back to buy.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Long since 10 a.m. CET. Strong 1h bull bar closing at the high tick and immediate follow through. Market never looked back.
CL - Crude Oil confirmation and unwritten potentialHi guys, we are following up with probably one of our favourite assets to participate in. You guessed it right it's CL. Currently the Crude Oil is sitting in a very specific range , which has been traded since late August , until the end of October where we saw a big spike and got out of boundaries due to the escalation in Iran and Israel, of which after the cooling off we got back into the range of 73.00 as a strong resistance line , and 67.00 as a strong support. This range has made a lot of traders stay away from CL, but I do believe that there is potential to be caught.
Current analysis and entry :
Entry today at a level of 68.90 , with two targets of take profit :
Target 1: 71.52
Target 2: 72.92
Now this is the bold move if you don't want to miss out on the current opportunity and your Risk Tolerance is on the higher end.
If you want to be more protective and your Risk Tolerance is on the lower side, you can get a Pending Order at the level of 66.61 , and then enter 3 follow up targets
Target 1: 68.50
Target 2: 71.05
Target 3: 72.45
P.S. My current opinion is to go with a current entry because the missing out of opportunity is too high ,hence we are seeing more tensions in Israel&Gaza conflict, additionally the tightening of the situation in Ukraine&Russia adds more Fundamental Value, towards a swing on an upside of the Crude Oil.
Do let me know in the comments below or in my community what is your thought process and opinion about our favourite Black Gold!
Happy Trading!
WTI OIL Break-out or rejection strategy.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us an excellent buy signal last time (December 27, see chart below) that produced a Bullish Leg straight to our $72.80 Target:
The price is right now above Resistance 2 and almost at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Having completed a +6.65% rise (which was the previous Bullish Leg), it is now highly likely to start seeing a reversal to a Bearish Leg. Especially since the 1D RSI is testing the October 07 2024 High.
As long the price gets rejected below the top of the Channel Up, we will be bearish, targeting $70.50 (above the 0.618 Fib and the 1D MA50). If the price breaks and closes a 1D candle above the Channel Up, we will take the small loss and switch to a buy, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at $75.15.
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Crude Oil January Futures: Bullish Option Trade SetupBuilding upon my prior analysis, where I held a bearish outlook on Crude Oil January Futures , I now present a contrasting bullish perspective. While I had previously emphasized the confidentiality of the stop-loss level for short trades, this setup focuses on a call option strategy aligned with my expectations of upward momentum in the market.
For this trade, I have chosen the 6000 strike call option . The optimal entry point for this position is below ₹234.20 , providing a favorable risk-reward ratio. As of this writing, the current market quote (best offer) stands at ₹186.00 , offering an attractive entry opportunity for bullish traders.
My target for this position is set at ₹468.40 , which I anticipate achieving by the contract's expiry on 15th January 2025.
Key Notes:
This trade is based on my personal analysis and market perspective.
It is important to emphasize that this is not a trade recommendation for the public.
The stop-loss level remains confidential and forms an integral part of my risk management approach.
Disclaimer:
Trading in options and futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This analysis is solely my personal view and is shared for informational purposes. Perform your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
RBOB post tariff structure and range to take advantage of!Hi guys today we are starting off with RBOB , which has been quiet for the past month and it has been trading in a structured range between 2.05 as a high resistance and 1.92 / 1.94 as strong support. As of today we are currently sitting at the given support line of 1.92 and the latest news which came from President Trump that he will impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican Imports , which would probably impact and touch the Oil Industry. The U.S. imports 4M barrels of Crude Oil every single day from Canada and around 900-1M barrels of Oil Crude Oil from Mexico. These tariffs would definitely touch the consumer as a long term which would give us a boost into the overall demand / supply play around the prices of Petroleum Products.
Current entry RBOB (Gasoline)
1.9300 entry level, with two separate targets.
Target 1: 1.9755
Target 2: 2.0310
The strategy can be repeated after the targets are touched with a patient retracement of the lower support line and input similar targets.
WTI Oil D1 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 72.17 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 73.60 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 69.21 which is a swing-low support.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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USOIL Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in this week we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 71 zone, USOIL for a buying opportunity around 71 zone, USOIL is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 71 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USOIL - bottom out here ? what's next??#USOIL.. after a perfect holdings and pull back now market just above his current immediate supporting area that is around 69.90 to 70.20
keep close that region because if market hold it in that case we can expect a further push to higher side.
dont short until market hold it ...
good luck
trade wisely
Cold Weather Sparks Natural Gas Rally – $5+ in Sight!🔥 Natural Gas Breaks Out – Bulls Charge as Cold Weather Fuels Demand! 🔥
Natural Gas Futures are soaring, backed by January’s colder-than-expected weather forecasts driving heating demand. The breakout above the critical $3.614 level signals powerful bullish momentum, with prices now trading around $3.8610 .
🚀 Why This Rally is Just Getting Started:
$3.614: A Key Level Overcome
Previously a strong resistance, this level had historically acted as support. Its decisive break confirms a shift in market dynamics and solidifies the bullish trend.
Gap to Be Filled at $4.1681
A price gap at $4.1681 suggests a strong upward magnet, as markets often seek to close such gaps. This aligns perfectly with the next major resistance target.
🌟 Trade :
Current Price: $3.8610
Take Profit 1: $4.1681 – The gap-fill level and next major resistance zone.
Take Profit 2: $5.3064 – A long-term target if cold weather continues to drive demand.
Stop Loss: $3.4300 – Protect your capital below this level, as it marks the lower boundary of this bullish momentum.
Natural gas is heating up, and the market is poised for an extended rally. The breakout above a historically significant level, combined with the gap at $4.1681, underscores strong bullish potential. With January’s cold weather expected to persist, this rally could have plenty of room to run.
The bulls are in control – ride the wave to new highs! 🐂🔥
USOIL:Latest trading opportunities.
USOIL: The current position is around 71.2. According to the quotation of tradingbiew.
From a macro analysis, as a strategic reserve, the rise of oil is inevitable. From the perspective of long-term trading, buying is feasible. Short-term observation. "Whether OPEC+ will cut production" is an important factor in the upward trend of oil prices. From the perspective of short-term trends, buying is still feasible. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the price around 73.5. Because there is a major support below. If you can accept a price fluctuation of 20 points, then there is room for profit in buying. Stop loss and take profit are ±2 respectively. The current price is 71.2. Remember to take profit in time after making a profit.
TVC:USOIL FX:USOIL
Trade Idea 2024-12-30 and Review of 2024As the year comes to a close, we expect it to be a quiet week. If you haven’t already, now is an excellent time to set your trading goals for the coming year. Where will your focus be? Which markets will you trade actively? What is your risk management plan?
It is also a good time to complete a review for 2024 if you have not already! Keeping a trading journal is essential for tracking progress and learning from your mistakes.
Active trading, like other high-performance activities, requires resilience, focus, and a winning mindset, but even with these attributes, losses are a natural part of the process. Always trade with a clear plan, manage your risks effectively, and never trade with more capital than you can afford to lose.
As we wrap up the year, we are sharing a couple of the most popular charts we reviewed in 2024 and reflecting on the following questions we asked ourselves:
What has the market done?
What is it trying to do?
How good of a job is it doing?
What is likely to happen from here?
Volume profile provides key insights into market auction and interaction of buyers and sellers.
This is how we approach markets although there are many other ways of doing so.
Big Picture ES Futures:
Key Levels:
2024 mid point: 5574.50
2024 VPOC: 5441.75
2024 Value Area High: 5844.25
2024 High: 6184.50
Fib Extensions Target 1: 6388
Fib Extension Target 2: 6514.25
Fib Extension Target 3: 6590.75
Fib Extension Target 4: 6695.50
Big Picture BTC Futures:
Key Levels:
2024 High: 108,960
2024 Mid point: 77,865
2024 VPOC: 69,710
2024 Value Area High: 79,525
Key Support for Bulls: 78,000 - 76,000
Big Picture CL Futures:
Key Levels:
Composite Value Area High: 79.65
2024 Value Area High: 74.90
2024 Mid point: 72.14
2024 VPOC: 69.70
2024 Value Area Low: 66.70
Composite Value Area Low: 63.55
We await the start of the new year to further gauge short term price action, volume and ranges for the upcoming year! Happy trading from EdgeClear! We wish you all a great 2025!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Oil Long 4HThis trade idea is based solely on Price Action. I observed that oil has broken the previous neckline, and I expect a pullback to the golden zone of the Fibonacci retracement for the previous leg. Before entering the trade, I'm looking for confirmation on a lower time frame, such as the 30-minute chart. An ideal confirmation would form a 'W' pattern, preferably with a higher low in the second leg.
69.20-69 is the entry zone with almost 50 pips SL
NuScale Power (SMR) - Cup and Handle Breakout, Target $25 - $40Overview:
NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) is showing a bullish Cup and Handle pattern, a classic setup that often precedes a significant upward move. The cup has formed over the past few months, and the stock is currently in the handle formation, signaling a potential breakout.
Technical Setup:
Pattern: Cup and Handle
Breakout Level: ~$20.31 (current resistance area)
Target Zone: $25.37, $33.65, and $40.57 (potential targets based on previous resistance levels and measured move)
Handle Formation: The current consolidation in a descending channel within the handle adds to the potential breakout strength.
Price Action:
A breakout above the $20.31 level would confirm the cup and handle pattern, with the first target around $25.37 and higher targets up to $40.57.
The price could continue to consolidate within the handle for the next couple of weeks before making a decisive move, making now a good time to watch for a breakout.
Risk Management:
A drop below the $18 level would negate the setup, suggesting further consolidation or a potential reversal.
Catalysts:
Watch for upcoming earnings and other news that could act as a catalyst for the breakout.