Energy Commodities
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously falling on the 9H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 76.57 because the pair is oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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WTI OIL on a Bearish Leg but short-term rebound expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern that is unfolding its latest Bearish Leg. This Leg just hit the Higher Lows trend-line from the last bottom, which is so far no different than what took place during the previous Bearish Leg on October 18 2024.
The 4H MACD sequences among the two fractals are very similar so, as the October price action did, we expect a marginal breach of the Higher Lows followed by an instant rebound above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result our short-term Target is $74.80.
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed flat as the market digested the previous day's FOMC decision to hold interest rates and major corporate earnings reports. The strategy of selling at the 5-day moving average proved effective, and despite the FOMC decision and earnings from Tesla and Microsoft, the index remained within a range-bound market. On the daily chart, the MACD is still above the signal line and the zero line, indicating that the buy signal is still intact. However, as there has been no significant volatility, the gap between the indicators remains narrow, maintaining the current range. Since the buy signal is still valid, it would be advantageous to monitor whether the gap-down from January 27 is filled and trade accordingly within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the signal line below the zero line and is now consolidating. For the MACD to cross below the signal line, a sharp decline would be necessary, but given the current spread between the MACD and the signal line, such a drop appears unlikely. Instead, if the market continues to consolidate and the MACD and signal line converge, the next move—whether another buying wave or a selling wave—will determine the trend. Since key economic reports, including the GDP release and Apple’s earnings, are due today, it would be best to adopt a range-bound strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil faced resistance at $74 and closed lower. On the daily chart, the sell signal remains intact, with prices failing to break above the 5-day moving average and continuing to decline within a downward channel. Prices are currently supported around the $72 level. For a bullish outlook, it would be crucial to see a strong bullish candlestick breaking above the downward channel's upper boundary at around $73.60.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line. While the MACD has crossed above the signal line, the price has not surged, resulting in only a narrow spread. Given that the $72–73 range has historically been a strong support zone, it would be preferable to buy on pullbacks. However, if the price breaks below this range and a sell signal emerges, it will be important to monitor whether the $72 level holds as support.
Gold
Gold closed flat on the daily chart, maintaining a buy signal. The MACD and signal line are gradually converging, but the spread remains sufficient to prevent an immediate shift to a sell signal. If the MACD turns upward, further gains are likely. A key factor to watch is whether the weekly candlestick forms a bullish pattern and the MACD crosses above the signal line. Key resistance levels are at 2800 and 2820.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal is still intact, but the spread has narrowed, indicating weaker momentum. The market is range-bound with mixed buying and selling pressure. As long as no sell signal appears on the 240-minute chart, a buy-on-dip strategy is preferable. However, keep in mind that upcoming economic data releases may lead to pre-market consolidation.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21470 / 21400 / 21360 / 21285 / 21220
-Sell Levels: 21625 / 21680 / 21770 / 21890
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.50
-Sell Levels: 73.40 / 73.85 / 74.40 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2793 / 2787 / 2777 / 2773 / 2768
-Sell Levels: 2803 / 2809 / 2813 / 2821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Bullish bounce?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 72.78
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 71.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 75.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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NATGAS GAP CLOSURE|LONG|
✅NATGAS gapped down massively
And the price has almost reached
The strong horizontal support
At the round level of 3.00$
And as Gas is objectively oversold
We are already seeing some
Gap closure moves and we
Will be expecting a further
Move up until the gap is
Closed completely
LONG🚀
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The Inevitable Descent of UKOILIn the shadow of a market that continues to revel in its own delusions, I find myself compelled to address the elephant in the room – or rather, the oil in the barrel that is UKOIL. We stand on the precipice of what I predict to be a significant correction, one that will see UKOIL prices plummeting to the region of $48 per barrel.
Why the Fall?
OPEC+'s decision to phase out additional output cuts by September 2025, announced in June last year, is a clear signal. The return of 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, should market dynamics permit, will flood an already saturated market. Despite the rhetoric of control, the reality is that OPEC+'s spare capacity, currently at 5.9 million barrels per day, limits any significant price increase. This, coupled with near-record production levels from non-OPEC countries like the United States, sets the stage for an oversupply scenario. The notion that demand will continue to grow unchecked is flawed. Global oil consumption growth is expected to slow dramatically from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2024, with similar levels in 2025. This deceleration is driven by multiple factors including the rise of electric vehicles, increasing efficiency in traditional vehicles, and a stuttering economic recovery in major markets like China. The market's current bullishness is more sentiment than substance. Indicators like the Stoch RSI currently at 77.9 suggest we are nearing overbought territory, a strong indication that a reversal could be imminent. This high reading, combined with the parabolic SAR signaling an upward trend now, might just be the last gasp before a significant correction.
The technical and fundamental analyses converge on a bearish outlook. Long Forecast anticipates Brent oil, which closely tracks UKOIL, to hover around $60-$65 by 2026 before a potential rebound. This, combined with other forecasts suggesting a further decline in demand, paints a picture not of a soft landing, but of a sharp descent. If we extrapolate current trends and market sentiment shifts, $48 is not just a possibility but a probable near-term floor.
Investors should consider reducing exposure to oil-related equities or hedge against the risk through diversification into non-correlated assets. For those with the stomach for risk, this scenario presents a unique opportunity to short UKOIL CFDs. In closing, let us not be swayed by the siren song of current market highs. The fundamentals, much like gravity, will eventually pull prices back to earth. Prepare for the storm, for it's not a matter of if, but when.
Horban Brothers.
Alex Kostenich
Crude Oil Update – Jan 29📊 Crude Oil FX:USOIL Update – Jan 29
Lol, the market somehow found its way to our buy-zone! 🤔
🔹 The big question now— do we take the trade or wait?
🔹 Ignoring the fundamental report this time, focusing purely on technicals.
🔹 If price dips lower, even better—we’ll get a stronger buy entry. If not, we wait for a clear bullish breakout before making a move.
Keeping a close watch—stay tuned! 👀🔥
USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 73.23.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 75.54 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Market Analysis: Oil Takes a HitMarket Analysis: Oil Takes a Hit
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $72.20.
Important Takeaways for Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil prices failed to clear the $80.00 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $73.85 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $80.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $76.35 support.
The price even dipped below the $75.00 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $72.20 level. A low was formed at $72.16, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.44 swing high to the $72.16 low at $73.85.
There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $73.85. The first major resistance is near the $75.80 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.44 swing high to the $72.16 low.
Any more gains might send the price toward the $76.35 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $79.45. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $72.20 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $70.00.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $70.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $68.50 support zone.
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Crude Oil Is SandwichedPrice is currently between the white centerline and the long-term support/resistance level.
Since the price is near the centerline, we're seeing a kind of pullback to it. According to the Medianline framework, this is expected after trading below it.
The downside target would be the orange CL, as that aligns with the organic target. However, between the current price and the CL target, the long-term support level is quietly sitting there—possibly waiting to trap shorts.
What should a trader do now?
a) We could stay on the sidelines, observe, and learn.
b) We could go short, reasoning that the price is trading below the white CL and has made a textbook pullback to it. My stop would be placed above the orange bar that broke through the white CL.
A long position is not an option for me, as we are still below the white CL.
By the way: Look to the left and notice how the current situation mirrors past price action:
1. Break below the CL
2. Retest the CL
3. Move downward
WTI: Will oil return to the upward trajectory?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable reward for risk will be provided to us. A valid breakdown of the drawn downtrend line and preservation of the channel will pave the way for oil to reach the drawn ranges.
Under the pressure of imminent sanctions planned by the Trump administration and the debts Iran now owes to China, the country has begun offloading crude oil that had been stored in Chinese warehouses for years. This oil, shipped to China between 2018 and 2019 but not officially declared in Chinese customs records, was kept in isolated, pre-designated storage facilities. With storage costs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, Iran is now obligated to cover these expenses. So far, 5.4 million barrels of oil have been removed from a Chinese port, transported by a total of four tankers.
According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current supply policy in its meeting next week. This decision contradicts the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged oil producers to increase output to lower prices and exert more economic pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Under the current plan, oil supply restrictions will remain in place for this quarter and will gradually ease starting in April.
Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order to initiate the development of a “next-generation” missile defense system in the United States. This system, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, is designed to protect the U.S. from ballistic missile attacks, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other modern aerial threats.
According to the released information, the executive order aims to establish an advanced space-based missile defense system capable of detecting and neutralizing missiles launched toward the U.S. Conceptually, this resembles Israel’s Iron Dome, which has been used for years to intercept and destroy rockets fired from Gaza. The U.S.government has already invested billions of dollars in developing Israel’s Iron Dome, and the American military possesses its own missile defense systems.
The order describes missile attacks as a “catastrophic threat,” but no details have been provided regarding the project’s costs or timeline. Developing a comprehensive missile defense system for a country as geographically vast as the U.S. is a highly complex and costly endeavor. Additionally, the emergence of next-generation missile threats, such as hypersonic missiles that travel at extremely high speeds, presents significant technical challenges. This indicates that the project will require substantial investment and time for completion.
Trump's pressure on OPEC prompted the drop in USOIL prices.
President Trump's steadfast dedication to lowering oil prices is driving the decline in WTI prices. During the WEF in Davos, Switzerland, he made it clear that he would demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce the price of crude oil. He boldly stated that lower oil prices could potentially lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. According to CSIS, Trump's call for reduced oil prices is a positive move for consumers and businesses but it is the one that the US oil industry will regard with caution.
Failing to rise above EMA21, USOIL shows consolidation near 73.40. The price remains within the descending channel, and both EMAs have widened apart, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish momentum. If USOIL fails to breach EMA21, the price may fall further to the support at 71.50, where the channel’s lower bound coincides. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA21 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 74.50
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ successfully rebounded and closed higher. Yesterday was a day where selling at the 3-day moving average was possible, and after rebounding to the 3-day line, it faced resistance and closed at that level. The rebound appears to be a recovery from the excessive drop on Monday due to overblown concerns about China's Deepseek.
On the daily chart, the MACD remains above the signal line, maintaining a buy signal, which suggests further attempts to rebound are likely. Additionally, today’s FOMC meeting and major corporate earnings reports will be pivotal in determining whether the downward gap created on Monday will be filled.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a golden cross after the sharp drop and subsequent rebound. If the golden cross is not confirmed and the index falls again, it may test the double-bottom level, so caution is advised when chasing a buying position.
However, if the golden cross is confirmed, it would be advisable to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy, as buying momentum remains strong. Today’s primary strategy should be selling at the 5-day moving average resistance level, making it advantageous to sell at resistance areas near the 5-day line. With strong upward momentum and potential pre-market consolidation due to economic data announcements, a box-range trading approach would be ideal.
OIL
Oil closed higher, encountering resistance near the $74 level. The daily chart shows that the 240-day moving average acted as support, with a bullish candle forming as oil prepares for another rebound attempt. The MACD still signals a sell trend, but consistent buying efforts could continue.
As mentioned earlier, even if oil rises, it’s likely to face pullbacks at certain levels. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has been confirmed, with a double-bottom pattern forming alongside a lower shadow, indicating a favorable buy-on-dip strategy.
If a strong rebound occurs, prices could rise to the 10-day moving average around $75.50. Selling positions should be avoided for now, with a focus on buy-on-dip strategies. Additionally, be mindful of price volatility due to today’s inventory report.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, supported by the 10-day moving average on the daily chart. The MACD and signal line on the daily chart still show separation, and gold has recovered both the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, making a buy-on-dip strategy effective.
For April contracts, it is crucial to see whether gold can break above $2,815 on the weekly chart and form a bullish candle. Be cautious of increased volatility in gold prices resulting from today’s FOMC meeting outcomes.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is on the verge of a golden cross. If gold fails to see additional significant gains, the price could form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If the MACD fails to build further upward momentum and starts to fall, a third wave of selling could occur, so keeping this scenario in mind is advised.
The clear trend will likely be determined after today’s FOMC meeting, so monitoring gold’s movement after the announcement will be key.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21,520 / 21,475 / 21,410 / 21,375 / 21,290
-Sell: 21,610 / 21,700 / 21,770 / 21,900
OIL - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 73.65 / 73.10 / 72.60
-Sell: 74.60 / 75.00 / 75.50 / 76.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy: 2,791 / 2,787 / 2,783 / 2,775
-Sell: 2,804 / 2,809 / 2,821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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CRUDE OIL Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL made a massive
10% bearish correction but
Then it hit a horizontal support
Of 72.89$ and a bullish rebound
Is already happening so we
Are bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
USOIL Maintains a Persistent Bearish BiasThe WTI barrel has experienced a loss of over 8% since mid-January, mainly because the peace agreement between Israel and Palestine has come into effect without issues, and Trump’s ongoing comments about increased production in the United States have contributed to the bearish sentiment. Both factors have led the market to expect growing supply and weak demand prospects, which has inevitably sustained bearish pressure on crude oil prices.
Lack of Clear Trend:
Recent movements have caused the barrel to accumulate a prolonged bearish correction, casting doubt on the bullish trendline established since December 2024. Now, the price faces a key support zone, which could serve as a decision point for a potential sustained bearish trend.
ADX:
The ADX line has consistently oscillated above the neutral level of 20. However, recent movements show a current downward slope, indicating a lack of clear trend in the market. If the ADX line continues to decline, the current bearish movement may struggle to break through the existing support zone.
MACD:
Both MACD lines are consistently declining, and the histogram remains below the neutral line at 0. This indicates that bearish pressure continues to dominate in the short term. However, recent histogram readings have not reached progressively lower levels, suggesting indecision in the current bearish movement, which could allow for short-term upward corrections.
Key Levels:
$72: The current support level on the chart. Oscillations below this level could further increase bearish pressure and pave the way for a more defined downward trend.
$78: The last high reached by the barrel of crude oil. Bullish oscillations that revisit this level could revive the short-term upward trend that was forming since December.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
WTI - Daily TradingRange ZoneBLACKBULL:WTI is oscillating between two key trend lines, and after hunting liquidity under the last bullish leg, another upward move is possible. This setup presents buy opportunities on lower time frames, and I’ll update this idea accordingly.
Additionally, oil remains within a broader trading range, reacting precisely to the mid-zone, which has previously acted as dynamic support. This level could push prices higher in the short term.
📈 Watch for potential bullish setups and follow for timely updates!
USOIL H4 I Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 72.698, which aligns with a strong overlap support level. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 74.884,an overlap resistance zone where price may encounter selling pressure.
The stop loss is placed at 71.193, below the previous swing low, providing room for price fluctuations while ensuring the bullish setup remains valid.
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The NASDAQ plunged to close lower, influenced by China’s Deepseek developments. On the weekly chart, the sell signal remained intact, and the gap-down movement pushed the MACD further downward, resulting in a sharp decline in the NASDAQ index. On the daily chart, a gap was created as a bearish candle formed with a high opening price. Given the moving average trends, breaching the 120-day moving average in the current range could trigger a downward wave, threatening the 240-day moving average as well.
However, the MACD on the daily chart has not yet crossed below the signal line (dead cross), so it’s worth observing whether the market rebounds to form a box range or continues its downward momentum. If the 120-day moving average is breached, a drop to the 240-day moving average is possible. It would also be prudent to consider levels as low as 19,800, which aligns with the 10-day moving average on the monthly chart and the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart.
On the 240-minute chart, a steep decline is evident, with the MACD and signal line falling sharply below the zero line. The angle suggests that further downward movement is likely, making sell strategies favorable during upward corrections. With the VIX index surging, volatility has intensified. Traders using one-contract strategies should consider scaling down their leverage—e.g., by using micro NASDAQ contracts or splitting positions into smaller increments like 0.01 lots through MetaTrader—allowing for more flexible risk management in these volatile conditions.
OIL
Oil closed lower, finding support at the 240-day moving average. This is a key level, as it overlaps with a prior resistance zone, making a pullback buy strategy effective in this range. However, the MACD has crossed below the signal line (dead cross), maintaining the sell signal, and this suggests that any rebound is likely to face significant pullbacks.
Rebounds are expected to occur within a large box range, with the market likely undergoing time corrections to align the moving averages. On the 240-minute chart, sell signals are evident. Even with further declines, the 240-minute chart indicates that the 240-day moving average could act as strong support, potentially allowing a rebound toward the 60-day moving average, which corresponds to approximately $76.
This aligns with a resistance level seen on the daily chart, making a pullback buy strategy advisable near this zone. Oil prices are also being influenced by the strengthening dollar, fueled by global market volatility. While AI-related factors have contributed to the dollar’s strength, the impact on oil prices is expected to be limited, with oil maintaining its own unique volatility.
GOLD
Gold plunged to close lower due to dollar strength amid heightened volatility. On the weekly chart, the MACD resumed its downward trajectory, with the gold price showing a steep decline. The MACD has not been able to cross above the signal line decisively, consistent with its pattern.
On the daily chart, it is critical to monitor whether the 10-day moving average provides support during the current downtrend. On the 240-minute chart, MACD divergence accompanied gold’s sharp decline. However, since the MACD and signal line are still above the zero line, there may be room for a rebound.
It’s essential to check for support and recovery near the 2,730 level. If prices rebound, gold could aim to test previous highs based on the daily chart trend. Avoid chasing prices lower with aggressive selling; instead, focus on pullback buying strategies.
If the NASDAQ continues its decline and gold follows suit, further downside toward 2,700 is possible. Overall, buying during pullbacks remains the preferred strategy, but strict risk management with stop-loss levels is crucial.
The volatility in U.S. markets has increased due to China’s Deepseek developments. As always, heightened volatility in futures markets presents both opportunities and risks. Traders who can maintain disciplined strategies may capitalize on this environment, while those who cannot may risk significant losses.
With Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, as well as earnings reports from Tesla and Meta on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, market volatility is expected to remain high. Wishing you success in trading this week!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21,260 / 21,140 / 21,100 / 21,040 / 21,890
-Sell: 21,365 / 21,415 / 21,480 / 21,540 / 21,660
OIL - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.60
-Sell: 73.55 / 74.40 / 75.00 / 75.95
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2,739 / 2,733 / 2,726 / 2,716
-Sell: 2,754 / 2,760 / 2,767 / 2,776
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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