The SAFEST Entry Technique - 18 Period Moving Average MethodA great deal of viewers have contacted me asking how I "time" the market. In other words, once I've identified a market as "set up" (via COT strategy or Valuation Strategy), how do I get into a trade.
This video is the first in a series that will outline the entry techniques that I use.
18 PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE ENTRY METHOD:
By far, this method is the safest change of trend confirmation that you will find. There are other entry techniques that will get you into the market sooner, sure. But those other entry techniques come with greater risk, and could be called "bottom picking" to some degree.
The 18 Period MA Entry Method is simple.
STEP 1: Plot the 18 period SMA on your chart based on the closing price.
STEP 2: For LONGS , you need to see two full range candles form ABOVE the MA. From there, mark out the highest high of those 2 candles. When price trades up into that high, the trend has officially changed to bullish. For SHORTS , you need to see to full range candles form BELOW the MA. From there, mark out the lowest low of those 2 candles. When price trades down into that low, the trend has officially changed to bearish.
CAVEAT: We do not count inside bars (bars that form within the range of the previous candle). If you see inside bars, skip them and continue your 2 bar count.
STEP 3: Enter at market when high/low is breached. Risk management is something I will review in another video, but generally, I add/subtract 120%-150% of the 3 bar ATR.
CLARIFICATION: To be clear, this entry technique should not be traded blindly. You need to have a REASON to take the trade (for example, COT strategy suggests a market is setup for a trade, or the Valuation/Ducks in a Barrel setup suggests a market is setup for a trade).
CREDIT: I credit Larry Williams, Tom DeMark, Brian Schad & Jake Bernstein for their influence in these ideas.
If you have any questions about this entry technique, feel free to shoot me a message.
Good Luck & Good Trading.
