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Silver (XAGUSD): Anticipating a Wave 4 CorrectionSince our entry at $26.31, silver has experienced a significant rally, reaching up to $32.50. We anticipate a correction downward to form a Wave 4. The recent rise to $32.50 indicates a strong upward movement, but now a correction is expected. We expect silver to correct downward into the 38.2% to 50% retracement zone before continuing its upward trend. Our strategy involves maintaining our current stop-loss level without adjustment while allowing the market to correct. We have already secured some profits, reducing our risk. We are targeting the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci retracement zone for potential re-entry, which will likely provide a strong support area for the next upward movement.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
ONDO (ONDOUSD): Spot Trading Opportunity Amid Bitcoin BottomWe are screening through some altcoins for potential wick trades on a possible bottom on Bitcoin and found interesting levels on ONDO. Current Analysis: We are looking at the spot chart here as we would plan on entering spot rather than perpetual, but technically, you could do it. We got multiple levels here that support one idea, getting support from the 3D demand zone and the HVN POC (point of control). We got both the 3D and the D FVG above/on the demand zone. In an ideal scenario, we would look at a wick into this demand and nothing more. If this doesn't hold, we would target the second 3D demand and the 3D BPR down below. Everything in between seems irrelevant for a spot trade. Strategy: Our target would be above the current high. If we place a target, we will cover it in a market report as usual.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Bluzelle (BLZUSDT): Strategic Spot-Buy OpportunityDuring our recent livestream, we highlighted BLZUSDT as a potential spot-buy opportunity. We identified several key levels of interest for entries and stops. 12-Hour Chart Analysis: The weekly fair-value gap nearly overlaps with the three-day fair-value gap, making this level a significant potential entry point. Additionally, the lower support zone, which has frequent price interactions and includes another three-day fair-value gap, offers a secondary entry level. We'll place our stop-loss just below the midpoint of the monthly fair-value gap, marked by a blue dotted line. In conclusion, BLZUSDT looks like a promising spot-buy opportunity with clear entry levels and a strategic stop-loss placement. We look forward to seeing new highs well above $0.48. Yearly VWAP Analysis: In addition to our usual analysis, let's take a look at the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) charts to fine-tune our strategy. Specifically, we'll focus on the annual VWAP for 2023. The current position of the price is between the 2023 VAH (Volume Area High) and the 2023 VWAP. We expect the price to reach the 2023 VWAP, aligning with our first entry level. Our stop-loss aligns with the 2023 VAL (Volume Area Low), providing extra confidence in this support level. This alignment, though unintentional, suggests strong support. The annual VWAP chart adds more validation to our BLZ-USDT strategy. Aligning our entry at the 2023 VWAP and setting the stop-loss just below the 2023 VAL strengthens our support levels and makes our setup more robust. Quarterly VWAP Analysis: The price has fallen below the 2023 Q4 VAH (Volume Area High) and is now nearing the 2023 Q4 VAL (Volume Area Low). The price is approaching the 2023 Q4 VAL, a crucial support level. Both the 2023 Q3 VAH and the 2023 Q3 VWAP closely align with our primary entry levels, adding further confidence to our strategy. Our strategy summary involves aligning the primary entry with the 2023 Q3 VAH and the 2023 Q3 VWAP. These levels overlap with our identified fair-value gaps, providing potential support. The quarterly VWAP chart strengthens our confidence in the identified support levels for BLZ-USDT. The overlap between the annual and quarterly VWAP levels at our entry points suggests strong support, making this a promising setup for a spot trade.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Solana (SOL): Preparing for Further CorrectionsInitially, we entered Solana at $80 and have been pleased with our position. However, upon reevaluating our scenario, we believe that the larger Wave II may not be complete, and we could see further downside. Therefore, we have decided to adjust our stop loss to avoid being prematurely stopped out, especially if Wave II is not yet finished. This adjustment is based on our long-term belief in Solana's potential. We anticipate that Solana might fall to the range between $92 and $51, with $51 being the absolute maximum downside level. In anticipation of further corrections, we plan to place a second entry at the 127.2% Wave C level, expecting a significant rise post-correction. Quarterly VWAP Analysis In the current situation, the 2024 Q1 VAH (Volume Area High) is acting as resistance, while the current range is defined by the 2024 Q1 VWAP at $126, which has been touched twice, each time forming lower lows. If Solana loses the $126 support level, the next significant range is between $91 and $82. This aligns well with our second entry target at the 2024 Q1 VAH and the 2023 Q4 VAH. In the worst case, a further drop could take Solana down to around $60. To achieve a bullish reversal, Solana needs to reclaim the $126 level and push upwards. Breaking above $161.9 would signal strength, and surpassing the $210 mark would confirm a bullish trend continuation. In conclusion, we remain open to further downside to the $91-$82 range for a potential second entry. Holding this range is crucial to avoid deeper declines towards $60. Conversely, reclaiming $126 and breaking above $161.9, and eventually $210, would indicate a strong bullish reversal.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Apple (AAPL): Bullish Breakout and What to Expect NextApple has broken out above the range between $198 and $165, currently trading around $210. This breakout is seen as very bullish, indicating that we can discard our alternative scenarios. We are confident that Wave (4) completed at $123 and we are now in the larger Wave (5). Current Situation: Elliott Wave Analysis: We believe that the initial super sub-wave ((i)) of the larger Wave (5) needs to correct after the strong rise since mid-April. Correction Levels: We expect a potential pullback to the $185 to $165 range. Whether it will reach as low as $165 remains uncertain. Confluences: RSI: The RSI is overbought but without a bearish divergence, indicating continued bullish momentum with a "normal" pullback. Volume: Support should hold around $175, providing a potential entry point during the correction. Strategy: No Immediate Orders: We are not placing any limit orders yet. Market Report: If we decide to place a limit order, we will issue a market report to inform our group. The outlook for Apple remains bullish. We anticipate a correction within the $185 to $165 range, with strong support around $175. We will monitor the situation closely and communicate any order placements through a market report.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Dell (DELL): Analyzing Recent Trends and Future ExpectationsDell Technologies has experienced a remarkable rise of approximately 440% within a span of about one and a half years. However, this impressive ascent has been marked by a bearish divergence at the current top. The RSI has been forming lower tops while the price chart has been forming higher tops, indicating weakening momentum. Current Situation: Trend Channel: Dell shot above the trend channel, but quickly corrected downwards with a significant gap down, losing around 12% in a single day. Support Level: The price found support within the trend channel, likely marking Wave A. Expectations: Wave B and C : We anticipate the formation of Wave B followed by Wave C, potentially moving into the open gap area. Although part of the gap between $94.44 and $104 has already been tagged, there is still some remaining that could be fully closed. Critical Levels: It is crucial for the $80 level to hold. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards the $68 or even $60 range. Key Points to Monitor: Bearish Divergence: The bearish divergence on the RSI suggests potential further downside. Gap Fill: Watch for a potential move to fill the remaining gap. Support at $80: Maintaining support at $80 is critical to prevent deeper declines.
NYSE:DELLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Tesla (TSLA): Trend Reversal or Just a Blip?Today, we are analyzing Tesla on the daily chart. After surviving the stronger sell-off at the 78.6% retracement level and avoiding the stop loss, we have witnessed a bullish divergence, which led to a significant upward push. Starting from the end of Wave (1), Tesla left this wave with a breakout gap downward. This breakout gap has not been closed yet, and we continuously saw lower lows and lower highs, indicating a clear downtrend. Recently, the first higher high has formed, which is a strong indication of a trend reversal. We believe Tesla might trade back towards the breakout gap, potentially testing it briefly before moving upwards towards the Point of Control. Between the levels of $190 and $230, trading volume has been low, and we don't expect this to change significantly. Therefore, a quick rise to around $260 is possible. The key question now is whether the breakout gap will be tested. We maintain our view that Wave (2) concluded at approximately $139, and we should be on the way up. If the price falls below $139, a quick retrace to around $100 is likely.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
PayPal Holdings (PYPL): Will $55.77 Hold?At the request of one of our members, we're taking a closer look at PayPal Holdings, which we haven't reviewed for a while. PayPal is currently in a sideways movement, respecting the top of Wave ((ii)) at $68.21. Although there was a wick above this level, no significant breakthrough has occurred. We have developed a bearish divergence with the RSI, indicating potential downward pressure. While still within this range, we expect the price to eventually sell off towards the Point of Control and the 78-88.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, potentially completing Wave ((ii)). It is crucial that the price does not fall below the range low of $55.77. If it does, we could see levels around $50 to $52. As long as the price remains above $55.77, we are considering this range for potential entry points.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Shopify (SHOP): Continuing Sell-Off!Shopify (SHOP): NYSE:SHOP We've reintegrated Shopify into our portfolio after a lengthy period without analysis, believing we've witnessed the conclusion of a Wave 5, thereby completing this cycle (1). Consequently, we are now in Wave (2), anticipated to be a three-part correction downwards. Our target retracement ranges between 50% and 78.6%, equating to $57.60 and $38.24, respectively. The subordinate Wave 4 at $45.50 represents a critical level for Shopify, potentially marking a turning point. As long as we don't surpass the Wave 5 peak of $85.50, we don't foresee an upward continuation. Should we form Wave A, an Expanded Flat exceeding Wave 5 but not surpassing 138%, might be observed. If this threshold is breached, our current scenario would need revision, possibly interpreting the subordinate Wave 4 at $45.50 as our Wave (2), indicating we're in Wave (3). Unless this scenario unfolds, we maintain the view that we're in a downtrend, awaiting a significant Wave 2 correction. However, falling below 78.6% would likely lead to a sharp decline towards $23.64.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Shopify (SHOP): Preparing for a Long-Term Entry at $49.62Considering Shopify, the situation is unfolding as we anticipated. We expected the beginning of 2024 to potentially mark the peak for Shopify with the completion of Wave (1), indicating a Wave 2 correction. This correction is likely to find support between the 63.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. Currently, the pattern is showing lower lows and lower highs, suggesting that further price declines may occur, potentially closing existing gaps. Our strategy is still developing, but we plan to place a long-term entry at $49.62 with a stop-loss at $31.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Petrobras (PETR): Bearish Divergence - Heading for a Dip After the market closed yesterday, Petrobras, a Brazilian stock, released a new earnings report. We're analyzing it in Brazilian Real (BRL) to get the most accurate view of the chart. On the weekly chart, we anticipate a mild but noticeable bearish divergence, especially since the beginning of 2024 when the stock has significantly appreciated. There is considerable downside potential as we expect the completion of Wave (3), followed by a downward adjustment in Wave (4). The exact retracement level for Wave (4) is yet to be determined, but we anticipate a pullback to around 38.52% before the stock resumes its upward trajectory in Wave (5). Our downside target is around 50 BRL, considering Petrobras' high dividend yield. This makes the stock attractive not only for its growth potential but also for its income-generating ability. A closer look at the daily chart reveals potential scenarios for either the completion of Wave 5 or Wave (3), highlighting areas where bearish divergence becomes more apparent. This divergence is evident due to the significant impulsive rises in the stock over recent months and weeks, which have created several imbalances. Despite closing gaps and reaching new highs, a downward correction is likely needed before we can see further upward movement. We anticipate that the correction in Wave (4) will take the stock lower, potentially reaching levels between 28.28 and 23.30 BRL.
BMFBOVESPA:PETR3
by freeguy_by_wmc
Bitcoin (BTC): Whats happening?Let's take a closer look at the Bitcoin chart, using a three-day timeframe. Here's the scenario we're observing: we've developed a significant bearish divergence. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently in a short but valid sideways phase, indicating an impending decision on direction—upward or downward break is expected in the coming weeks. Our analysis leans towards anticipating a Wave 4 correction. We suspect that it hasn't completed at the 23.6% level since, given the strong upward momentum previously observed. A deeper decline might be necessary before attempting to reach levels like $80,000, $85,000, or even $90,000. Nonetheless, we generally don't expect Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 in this cycle. Concerning potential downturns, if Bitcoin falls below the $49,500 mark (50% retracement level), we foresee possible support between $44,000 and $41,600, marking our worst-case scenario for this phase. The mega worst case would involve a drop to $31,000, which, while not impossible, is highly improbable under current conditions and thus unrealistic to expect. On the daily chart, the situation becomes a bit clearer after our previous analysis at $40,000. Since then, we've reached a new all-time high of $73,800 but have not regained our former strength, presenting the possibility that Wave (4) may have already concluded. There's also a chance that prices might dip again, and for this scenario, we plan to place a limit order at $55,236, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss just below the 50% level. If you're considering this setup purely for spot buys with a long-term hold strategy, you might opt to set another limit at the worst case scenario. We anticipate that the price should hold around $48,000. If it falls further, we'd consider secondary entries at around $40,000 and a third potential entry at $31,000. Depending on where the turnaround occurs, we expect the subsequent rise for Wave (5) and the overarching Wave I to reach between $78,000 and $88,000.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Tencent (700): Ambitious Targets - Preparing for a BreakoutFor Tencent Holdings Ltd. on the Hong Kong Exchange, we're seeing a scenario where the subordinate Wave (2) has likely concluded between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels around 260 HKD. We anticipate a breakout from this range heading upwards, ideally reaching the target zone for Wave (3) between 227% and 361.8% Fibonacci extensions, which translates to approximately 870 HKD to 1100 HKD. Though this target is quite ambitious, it remains plausible in the long-term scenario for Tencent. On the 4-hour chart for Tencent Holdings, we are observing a subordinate Wave 1 structure, which should be formed as a 5-wave structure heading upwards. The wave ((iii)) in this sequence has likely concluded at the high-volume node edge, fitting neatly between the 227.2% and 261.8% extension levels for Wave ((iii)). For the anticipated Wave ((iv)), we expect a more pronounced sell-off to between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, reaching down to our point of control, indicating significant buying interest at these levels. We'll place our stop-loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and beneath the maximum level where Wave ((iv)) can feasibly fall without invalidating our scenario. A brief dip into the level of Wave ((i)) is tolerable, but a prolonged stay would challenge the validity of our setup. We've also respected the trendline well, attempting a retest that should hold if valid, hence not anticipating a further drop. Our upward target is initially set at 416 HKD, beyond which we will look for new entries for a superior Wave 2 and continue to adjust our stop-loss from Wave ((iv)) accordingly.
HKEX:700Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Xiaomi (1810): From Double Bottom to Skyrocket!At Xiaomi HKEX:1810 , unlike Alibaba, all financial data is in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD) since we are examining the stock on the Hong Kong Exchange. We observed a double bottom formation at 8.28 HKD for Wave II, which also coincides with the bottom edge of our Volume Node. From there, we've seen a significant rise, over 100%, in a relatively short period, with the low occurring at the end of 2022. Currently, we are in a range that has historically moved through very quickly, known as a Low Volume Node. We may either bounce back down from here or break swiftly upwards to around 21 HKD. Given that we are in Wave III, we anticipate surpassing the peak of Wave I significantly, targeting levels above 36 HKD. Now, let's take a closer look into our long-term perspective on the chart. Upon closely analyzing Xiaomi on the 4-hour chart, we note a commendable 33% rise from our entry for Wave ((ii)). Congratulations to all who participated in this trade. However, we've developed a bearish divergence on the RSI, indicating a potential decline to form Wave (ii), which should fall between the 50% and 100% levels. We've marked a significantly broad zone since we anticipate substantial upside potential, at least up to 36 HKD, which alone represents a at least 144% increase. It wouldn't make sense to rigidly exclude any scenarios, given our past observations of double bottoms forming for Wave 2. The most probable range for this correction, in our view, is between the 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, we cannot dismiss the possibility of reaching the full 100%. There is a Low-Volume Node between the 50% and 78.6% levels, suggesting that if we cannot hold the first Fib levels, we might quickly drop lower—another reason for our broad stop-loss.
HKEX:1810
by freeguy_by_wmc
Alibaba (BABA): Finally Breaking Resistances!Looking at Alibaba, we have set our entry at $71.66 and found ourselves within a consolidation phase, oscillating between $65 and $77.77 for around three months, the latter marking our short-term resistance. We anticipated a breakout through this resistance upwards and this is what finally got this week! Fundamentally, Alibaba holds substantial potential, and from a technical standpoint, it appears promising as long as it maintains its current level. This was the third time we were testing the trendline, and we expected to break through it. There is still a chance to revisit lower ranges of this consolidation phase, if we can't hold the critical price level above $ 77. While we hope it doesn't occur, it remains a possibility. Looking upwards, we have set a very ambitious target, aiming for a rebound to between $200 and $300—a potential increase of approximately 300%. This long-term scenario hinges on stability in geopolitical and other external conditions.
NYSE:BABALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
WOO (WOO): Critical Moment -Will we Breakout or Breakdown?On the weekly chart of WOOUSDT, it appears that we are likely at the conclusion of Wave 4 or very close to it. This is inferred from the slight intrusion of Wave 4 into the level of Wave 1. In the volatile cryptocurrency market, such a minor breach is not considered a true break of the Wave 1 level for us, which is acceptable as long as it doesn’t lead to further declines. Currently, we are above the last assumed level of Wave 4 at $0.23. We now anticipate a robust rise to the range of $0.65 to $0.88, where the overarching Wave 5 is expected to find it’s end. On the daily chart, we face some complexity, but it allows us to examine the situation more closely. Since completing Wave 3 and the downward correction to Wave 4—with a three-part structure downward and the formation of a trend channel—we can continue with the assumption that until we break out of this trend channel upward, we won't see a contrary upward movement. There are two scenarios here: our primary scenario anticipates a breakout upwards, followed by a retest where we would enter to continue the upward trajectory. On the other hand, it's also possible that we could move lower to the Point of Control around 17 cents, where we might place long positions. However, this would invalidate our structure according to Elliott Wave Theory, requiring us to consider a different structure. Unless that happens, we remain optimistic about a potential upward breakout.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Polkadot (DOT): Are we done yet?We had to reassess the situation with DOT on the daily chart and have concluded that we are still not seeing the completion of Wave (2). Why is this the case? Because the correction downward following what we assume to be Wave (2) is too brief in duration to be considered a Wave 2. However, the upward movement towards Wave B was surprisingly strong. Since we have now fallen below the level of Wave A, and we make no exceptions for Wave 2 as we might for a Wave 4, we believe this represents an overshooting Wave B, which respected the 161.8% level almost to the cent. We now expect a downward movement that should reach between the 78.6% and 100% levels. Upon closer inspection, we also assume that what we overshoot upward, we'll compensate for downward, a typical characteristic of an Expanded Flat. Therefore, the 78.6% to 100% range is seen as crucial and robust. The low of $3.56 must not be breached, which would be far from ideal. On the daily chart, we also note a Fair Value Gap above, which remains the only gap on this chart. Eventually, all such gaps get filled. The question remains: will we move towards $4.85 or $9.50 first? Upon closer examination on the 4-hour chart, we've observed a four-wave structure since Wave B. Currently, we are respecting the 38.2% to 50% zone for Wave ((iv)) and remain below it. The scenario we believe in indicates a potential drop to $4.85. The timing is uncertain, and we may see some sideways movement for a while before experiencing a sharper decline. We've reached the 2.618 Fibonacci time zone, indicating a perfect setup for Wave (2). We've missed this by a day, but still anticipate a further decline, remaining within this golden zone. Additional Fibonacci clusters lend further confirmation, therefore, we expect significant buying volume in the range of $4.85 to $3.56. This would be an intriguing entry point as we are at the end of Wave (2), predicting that the subsequent Wave (3) will surpass Wave (1). The peak of Wave B at $11.88 offers a solid target, potentially making this a very interesting long-term swing trade.
BINANCE:DOTUSD
by freeguy_by_wmc
Silver (XAGUSD): Surge Beyond $28 or Pullback?The entire precious metals sector, including Silver, is currently of great interest, not just gold. For silver, we currently assume that we are probably nearing the end of Wave (iii), which can reach a maximum of 28.51 dollars. We are currently within our target zone for the Wave 5s, so it will likely be challenging to break through and invalidate the 461.8% extension level. If that were to happen, we would need to make adjustments. Otherwise, we believe we might see another drop to between 38.2% and 61.8%, i.e., between 25.75 dollars and 24.30 dollars. We will not place a limit order just yet. We first want to see some sell-off in this market before placing a limit order, to avoid having to adjust it frequently if it gets invalidated. So, wait until we send out the limit order.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Ethena (ENA): Why we’re betting BIG on this dip!We're setting up a swing entry for $BINANCE:ENAUSDT. There are several reasons for this decision, including the fact that we've captured all the buy-side liquidity we had previously marked and reclaimed these demand zones. Recently, we observed a Stop Fishing Point (SFP) during the second dip and now anticipate rising at least to the supply levels between $1.26 and $1.40. This is the range we are targeting. Additionally, we believe this could be a very interesting coin in the coming days or weeks. Therefore, this is our swing entry on a lower time frame for ENA.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Chainlink (LINK): Oversold and Undervalued. Surge to $37+Finally, after a long wait, we got filled on Chainlink, and we entered at $12.93. This is our entry point. The entry is holding up quite well and solid so far. We still see strength in Chainlink and we do not believe that our large stop-loss will be triggered. Also, for the first time since May 2022, the RSI has fallen into the oversold area, which is another sign of how strongly Chainlink has been sold off. We are holding on to this and still expect an increase to at least $37.45, probably even to $47.45.
CRYPTO:LINKUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Dogecoin (DOGE): Zoom Out and hop on the next Big Move!Starting with Dogecoin on the Monthly Chart, we're observing a potentially lucrative opportunity. The subordinate Wave ((iii)) has completed at the precise 161.8% extension level, and it appears that Wave ((iv)) has concluded within the 38.52% retracement range. A notable detail is the wick of the current monthly candlestick reaching down to close the Fair-Value-Gap on the Monthly Chart, suggesting a robust and effective market response. Given these developments, our expectation is that there won't be further significant dips below this level. Looking at Dogecoin on the Daily chart, we observe a significant Demand Zone which we believe should be respected if tested another time. We choose not to zoom in further as the range appears quite defined to us. We are placing our stop-loss just below this touched and thoroughly respected Demand Zone. If we repeatedly enter and "cut" through this zone, we might consider exiting the position prematurely. However, unless that happens, we plan to maintain our position. Our minimum target is the level of the previous All-Time-High. We anticipate breaking the local daily chart high of $0.23, aiming for higher levels as part of our ongoing trading strategy.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc