Crude Oil (CL1!): Why We’re Still Expecting Lower LowsAt the end of last week, we fine-tuned our Crude Oil outlook, and we are still expecting lower lows to take out the sell-side liquidity below. Our limit order at $63.23 remains valid, even after last week’s pump, which was driven primarily by rising tensions and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Oil gained 13% over five sessions following Iran’s attack, as traders feared Israel’s response might target Iran’s oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country’s 1.7 million barrels per day of exports. There are also concerns that a broader war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However, the geopolitical risk premium may be fading due to Israel’s delayed response.
The geopolitical risk premium has an unclear and unpredictable expiration. When that moment comes and is not supported by real, fundamental factors—such as a substantial supply shortage due to the conflict—the upward movement in oil prices will not be sustainable. The longer this takes, the more the price increase will slow and potentially reverse, which is exactly what we are starting to see in the chart. While Crude Oil respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level almost perfectly, it found stronger resistance at the POC just above that level. Given the bearish RSI divergence, we continue to expect Oil to move lower, provided the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further.
Entry
Uber (UBER): Missed the Rally? Here comes new opportunitiesIt's been a while since we last looked at Uber, and the stock has moved perfectly since then. Uber reacted exactly as expected to our desired area, but unfortunately, we didn’t buy any shares at the time. If you did, congratulations – this position is now up 60.8%!
Shares of rideshare companies Uber Technologies and Lyft surged on Friday, following Tesla's underwhelming Robotaxi reveal. Uber has shifted its focus away from developing autonomous vehicles and is instead concentrating on expanding its marketplace for riders and drivers. This shift has created a robust network effect, making it increasingly difficult for competitors to match Uber's scale, according to a recent report by Business Insider.
Uber’s asset-light business model, which doesn't involve owning or maintaining vehicles, has been financially successful, generating $1.7 billion in free cash flow in the second quarter. Now, Uber has reached a new all-time high, and if we look back at the chart, it's easy to see a clear and powerful pattern. After entering our desired area, Uber made a sharp V-shaped correction, followed by a key level retest. In a short period, NYSE:UBER turned bullish, marking a complete turnaround.
We will be closely watching Uber Technologies' upcoming earnings report, scheduled for October 31, 2024. After this event, we’ll update our chart and look for possible new opportunities.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!Since our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on $SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming.
We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if NASDAQ:SMCI comes down further.
Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares.
If NASDAQ:SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.
KO (Coca-Cola): Ready to Bid on the PullbackIn our last analysis on Coca-Cola, we discussed waiting for the right opportunity to bid on $KO. We believe that opportunity has just presented itself. The stock has seen a solid surge over the past month, which is impressive for a defensive stock like Coca-Cola. The price has now tapped the trendline we mentioned previously, suggesting a possible chance to long the intra wave ((iv)). The RSI is currently heavily overbought, which further aligns with our expectation of a pullback, and Coca-Cola has also respected the 161.8% Fibonacci level quite well so far.
Our plan involves making two entries for this setup. First, we aim to bid at the 38.2% level within the support zone, and if the price continues downward, we will place a second bid at the golden pocket level around $61.24. This two-step entry strategy will allow us to use Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) to lower our average entry price.
Ideally, before reaching our target entry zones, we would like to see some kind of a three-wave corrective structure develop in NYSE:KO , which would further confirm our entry strategy. We will continue to monitor and provide updates as we approach the levels of interest.
Crude Oil (CL1!): Waiting for the perfect entry after declineWe have continued to see crude oil prices fall lower and lower since we first analyzed it five months ago. The recent price decline is largely attributed to a worsening demand outlook. According to Commerzbank, the post-pandemic normalisation of demand growth in China has sharply deteriorated. Between April and July, oil demand was even lower than the previous year, and data released last weekend offers little hope for improvement in Chinese crude oil processing for August.
Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand down to 900,000 barrels per day, with China accounting for just 20% of that growth. What was once a driver of demand is now seen as a drag on the market. The IEA projects that oil demand in China will rise by 260,000 barrels per day by 2025.
With the continued struggles of global oil demand on one side and Middle East tensions on the other, it makes sense to set a limit order on crude oil as we closely watch how well NYMEX:CL1! respects the key levels on the chart. We're still targeting the $63.23-$57 range for a potential buy-in as we continue to monitor the market for an ideal entry point.
Apple (AAPL): After the Gap Close, What’s Next?In our last analysis, we perfectly predicted the top for Apple at $233, and since then, the stock has been declining due to multiple factors. Apple dropped nearly 3%, driven by concerns over weaker-than-expected demand for the latest iPhone model during its first weekend, according to a securities analyst at TF International in Hong Kong.
China’s performance continues to drag on Apple’s financials this year, particularly in the first quarter when sales dropped by 24%. Full-year sales from China are expected to reach $60 billion, down from $72.6 billion in 2023, which accounted for a significant portion of Apple’s $383.3 billion overall revenue.
For now, we maintain a bearish outlook for Apple after the stock completed a gap close and was rejected at the 88.6% Fibonacci level. However, we are still eyeing an entry point and getting closer to it. We’re now placing a limit order to catch a potential dip. Our primary target is a possible double bottom around $196. While the price could dip even lower, we are playing this with a wider stop-loss and may use a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) approach, as multiple entry points could emerge. Let’s see how the next few days or weeks unfold!
NIO (NIO): 55% Increase but Bearish Trends Still LoomA while back, we analyzed NIO, and recently, we’ve seen a considerable 55% increase in the stock price. However, despite this rise, nothing truly convinces us that this bearish trend has ended or that a sustainable upward movement is underway.
The critical factor here is that none of the key levels that need to be breached for a trend reversal have been crossed. Specifically, we’re looking at the current Wave ((iv)) level around $6.04. If this level isn’t breached, it’s likely that we could see further declines, possibly dipping into the $2.99 range—or even lower, potentially as far as $1. It may seem dramatic, but considering NIO has already dropped up to 62% since January, repeating such a decline isn’t out of the question.
In conclusion, the market remains quite weak, and we’re still cautious about the possibility of more significant setbacks. Always remember, it’s okay to stay on the sidelines and not invest in everything that catches your eye. 🤝
AUDCHF / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS / FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ~ PROPFIRMThis is my analysis for audchf, the graph shows fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
This entry mentioned here is open with sell top in my propfirm account *Fundingpips* 100k.
Everything is clear, I didn't detail the fundamental analysis, I just put it as a final observation, as the fundamental analysis is done with a set of information and rate cuts.
Feel free to comment, this is just my entry, it doesn't mean I'm 100% right, sometimes the market isn't right.
Shopify (SHOP): Is It Just the Beginning?Shopify has been one of our best entries this year, and we remain very bullish on it. From a technical analysis perspective, it's hard to make a bearish case for this stock. We've even seen a change of structure after catching the bottom on SHOP.
We've already taken some profits off the table and moved our stop loss to break even for the initial trade. We're now expecting this surge to continue, and as a result, we're planning to place another limit order on Shopify, aiming to buy more if the price moves into the $59.38-$54.59 area. We prefer to enter manually to avoid getting triggered by any sudden news events.
If our analysis is correct and this is indeed Wave 2, we could see a really nice rally in the near future on Shopify, potentially breaking the $90 mark and moving even higher.
Let's see what Shopify has in store for us next.
The SAFEST Entry Technique - 18 Period Moving Average MethodA great deal of viewers have contacted me asking how I "time" the market. In other words, once I've identified a market as "set up" (via COT strategy or Valuation Strategy), how do I get into a trade.
This video is the first in a series that will outline the entry techniques that I use.
18 PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE ENTRY METHOD:
By far, this method is the safest change of trend confirmation that you will find. There are other entry techniques that will get you into the market sooner, sure. But those other entry techniques come with greater risk, and could be called "bottom picking" to some degree.
The 18 Period MA Entry Method is simple.
STEP 1: Plot the 18 period SMA on your chart based on the closing price.
STEP 2: For LONGS , you need to see two full range candles form ABOVE the MA. From there, mark out the highest high of those 2 candles. When price trades up into that high, the trend has officially changed to bullish. For SHORTS , you need to see to full range candles form BELOW the MA. From there, mark out the lowest low of those 2 candles. When price trades down into that low, the trend has officially changed to bearish.
CAVEAT: We do not count inside bars (bars that form within the range of the previous candle). If you see inside bars, skip them and continue your 2 bar count.
STEP 3: Enter at market when high/low is breached. Risk management is something I will review in another video, but generally, I add/subtract 120%-150% of the 3 bar ATR.
CLARIFICATION: To be clear, this entry technique should not be traded blindly. You need to have a REASON to take the trade (for example, COT strategy suggests a market is setup for a trade, or the Valuation/Ducks in a Barrel setup suggests a market is setup for a trade).
CREDIT: I credit Larry Williams, Tom DeMark, Brian Schad & Jake Bernstein for their influence in these ideas.
If you have any questions about this entry technique, feel free to shoot me a message.
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Apple (AAPL): Swing Entry on the HorizonLast time, we narrowly missed the entry on Apple by just a few dollars, and after that miss, the stock no longer presented a compelling opportunity, so we decided to wait. However, after observing from the sidelines for a few months, it seems that another chance to secure a profitable swing entry might be approaching.
To increase our confidence in this potential opportunity and secure a better entry point, we need to closely monitor further movements from this tech giant. The current price action strongly suggests that a flat pattern might be forming following the recent drop. If this flat pattern does materialize, it could manifest as either a regular flat or an expanded flat, and this will be crucial in determining our entry target zone. At this stage, the area between $200 and $180 seems the most probable and attractive for a potential entry.
Given the broader market trends and Apple’s recent performance, this zone could offer a favorable risk-reward ratio. We’ll be watching for any developments that confirm this pattern and provide a clearer signal for entry. Stay tuned for further updates as we refine our strategy and prepare for a possible move on Apple.
Snowflake (SNOW): Potential Bullish Flip on the Horizon?In our last analysis on Snowflake, we were focused around the MOAT level, which was lost after the analysis. However, we respected the HVN edge low quite well, and since then, we haven't seen any significant new lows.
If Snowflake can hold its current level and avoid retesting lower zones, we could potentially see a flip in the market structure toward a bullish trend. If this scenario plays out, we’ll be actively looking for long setups for SNOW.
We'll keep you informed on whether this bullish scenario materializes or if lower prices prevail.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Wave 1 Nearly Complete – New Entry Opportunity?After a break, we’re taking another look at NVIDIA, which is now around $100 — which sounds like a much more attractive level compared to $1100. But it isn't, as in the meantime we witnessed a stock split. We still see more upside for NVIDIA as we believe we are in Wave (5) of the current cycle, if our count is correct.
Zooming in, the past surge doesn't need much commentary as it was mostly upward movement without significant corrections. Now, it looks like we’re getting into the intra-wave structure. We expect Wave 1 to finish after one last leg up to complete the five-wave cycle for Wave 1.
Afterward, we could look for entry points at the end of Wave 2. If this scenario plays out with the bearish divergence on the RSI, we will update you on how we plan to position ourselves.
Dell (DELL): About the wild ride - what's next after a 31% pump?No way Dell follows the analysis like this for months 😳 We told you about the wave B at the top, the wave ((ii)) a little lower, and our must-hold zone was just barely tagged—and now it’s pumped 31%...
Incredibly accurate, but we didn't enter as this stock is too volatile for us personally. Still, we’re going to monitor it from time to time for you because it remains highly interesting.
After the latest surge, we’re expecting a pullback for wave ((ii)). The best case for this pullback would be the golden pocket between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
That said, this stock is very volatile, and it could pump even more before coming down to make this essential pullback.
Chevron (CVX): Approaching a Critical Support ZoneIt's been a while since we last analyzed CVX, but we’re now approaching a very important area on the chart. You might wonder why we’re focusing on the weekly chart instead of the daily. The reason is simple: sometimes you need to zoom out to get a clearer perspective, and in this case, the weekly chart holds far more significance than the daily. There’s no point in searching for entries on the daily when the more crucial entry level on the weekly is just below.
We’re looking to find support at the HVN POC (High Volume Node Point of Control) at $117, which would also serve as a retest after the last breakout in 2022. We’re still determining the best way to place a limit order at this level, but for now, we’re waiting on the sidelines with alerts set and a light game plan ready.
Target (TGT): Ready to Break Out of Its DowntrendWith Target, we have another major player in the US retail market, and we prefer its price structure over Walmart's. After completing Wave (3), Target experienced a significant sell-off, forming Wave (4). Currently, it appears that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is developing, which could signal a bullish reversal. The neckline looks particularly strong, and I will have a bullish outlook once this neckline is reclaimed.
There is a breakout gap following the completion of Wave (4), which might be revisited. However, for a well-formed head and shoulders pattern, we should see some momentum soon to create two shoulders at the same level. As long as the Wave (4) level at the Point of Control (POC) holds, we expect more upside, either after a slight dip into the breakout gap or immediately following the earnings report next week.
Cisco (CSCO): Ready for a Post-Earnings Drop?As we approach Cisco's earnings report, it's time for another pre-earnings analysis. We're examining both the higher time frame and then zooming in for a closer look. On the higher time frame (Daily), Cisco is following a nearly perfect trend channel. While a retest of the lower range of this trend channel seems the most probable, I suspect that the price could breach this level and wick into our target zone between $38 and $32.
If this scenario unfolds as anticipated, it could present a great opportunity to take a long position in Cisco, potentially holding into 2025 for more significant gains.
The bearish outlook is further supported by a shoulder-head-shoulder formation that has caught our eye. Although we typically don't trade based on these formations, this one is hard to ignore. Ideally, we'd see a breach below the lower trend channel range, followed by a retest, and then a sell-off into our target zone.
We're watching closely for the first signs of movement following Wednesday's earnings report.
$T cheapest good R:R earnings play2024-07-23 at 3DTE
NYSE:T Jul 26th 16/17 Put Ratio Spread
Options Overlay indicator and Options Screener in action.
Tomorrow before open : Earnings
Max loss: $2.5
Max profit: $97
Bp.req: $200
Bearish micro, bullish macro.
I expect that even in the event of a possible fall, the 4/8 will hold the price.
If it doesn't, then the upward macro trend.
So I went for a pretty safe-looking trade, with the green rage showing the range of returns, so I will sleep well :)
PUTS = CALLS equally priced for 3DTE.
Silver (XAGUSD): From Rise to Expected Downturn—What's Next?Following a rapid rise to $30, silver has seen a swift decline, indicating a completion of the minor Wave (iii) of Wave ((iii)) just above the 461.8% level. We've exceeded this level, so we need to consider potential deviations from ideal models to navigate the market effectively.
We anticipate the downturn to continue and expect to find support between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This could set the stage for a rebound above the $30 mark, potentially reaching between $33.78 to a high of $46, although the upper range is quite optimistic.
Trading volume is expected to provide significant support, helping to sustain Wave (iv) within a price range of $26.32 to $24.65.
Silver (XAGUSD): Anticipating a Wave 4 CorrectionSince our entry at $26.31, silver has experienced a significant rally, reaching up to $32.50. We anticipate a correction downward to form a Wave 4.
The recent rise to $32.50 indicates a strong upward movement, but now a correction is expected. We expect silver to correct downward into the 38.2% to 50% retracement zone before continuing its upward trend.
Our strategy involves maintaining our current stop-loss level without adjustment while allowing the market to correct. We have already secured some profits, reducing our risk. We are targeting the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci retracement zone for potential re-entry, which will likely provide a strong support area for the next upward movement.
ONDO (ONDOUSD): Spot Trading Opportunity Amid Bitcoin BottomWe are screening through some altcoins for potential wick trades on a possible bottom on Bitcoin and found interesting levels on ONDO.
Current Analysis:
We are looking at the spot chart here as we would plan on entering spot rather than perpetual, but technically, you could do it. We got multiple levels here that support one idea, getting support from the 3D demand zone and the HVN POC (point of control). We got both the 3D and the D FVG above/on the demand zone. In an ideal scenario, we would look at a wick into this demand and nothing more.
If this doesn't hold, we would target the second 3D demand and the 3D BPR down below. Everything in between seems irrelevant for a spot trade.
Strategy:
Our target would be above the current high. If we place a target, we will cover it in a market report as usual.
Bluzelle (BLZUSDT): Strategic Spot-Buy OpportunityDuring our recent livestream, we highlighted BLZUSDT as a potential spot-buy opportunity. We identified several key levels of interest for entries and stops.
12-Hour Chart Analysis:
The weekly fair-value gap nearly overlaps with the three-day fair-value gap, making this level a significant potential entry point. Additionally, the lower support zone, which has frequent price interactions and includes another three-day fair-value gap, offers a secondary entry level. We'll place our stop-loss just below the midpoint of the monthly fair-value gap, marked by a blue dotted line. In conclusion, BLZUSDT looks like a promising spot-buy opportunity with clear entry levels and a strategic stop-loss placement. We look forward to seeing new highs well above $0.48.
Yearly VWAP Analysis:
In addition to our usual analysis, let's take a look at the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) charts to fine-tune our strategy. Specifically, we'll focus on the annual VWAP for 2023. The current position of the price is between the 2023 VAH (Volume Area High) and the 2023 VWAP. We expect the price to reach the 2023 VWAP, aligning with our first entry level. Our stop-loss aligns with the 2023 VAL (Volume Area Low), providing extra confidence in this support level. This alignment, though unintentional, suggests strong support.
The annual VWAP chart adds more validation to our BLZ-USDT strategy. Aligning our entry at the 2023 VWAP and setting the stop-loss just below the 2023 VAL strengthens our support levels and makes our setup more robust.
Quarterly VWAP Analysis:
The price has fallen below the 2023 Q4 VAH (Volume Area High) and is now nearing the 2023 Q4 VAL (Volume Area Low). The price is approaching the 2023 Q4 VAL, a crucial support level. Both the 2023 Q3 VAH and the 2023 Q3 VWAP closely align with our primary entry levels, adding further confidence to our strategy.
Our strategy summary involves aligning the primary entry with the 2023 Q3 VAH and the 2023 Q3 VWAP. These levels overlap with our identified fair-value gaps, providing potential support. The quarterly VWAP chart strengthens our confidence in the identified support levels for BLZ-USDT. The overlap between the annual and quarterly VWAP levels at our entry points suggests strong support, making this a promising setup for a spot trade.