Get started

Entry

Petrobras (PETR): Bearish Divergence - Heading for a Dip After the market closed yesterday, Petrobras, a Brazilian stock, released a new earnings report. We're analyzing it in Brazilian Real (BRL) to get the most accurate view of the chart. On the weekly chart, we anticipate a mild but noticeable bearish divergence, especially since the beginning of 2024 when the stock has significantly appreciated. There is considerable downside potential as we expect the completion of Wave (3), followed by a downward adjustment in Wave (4). The exact retracement level for Wave (4) is yet to be determined, but we anticipate a pullback to around 38.52% before the stock resumes its upward trajectory in Wave (5). Our downside target is around 50 BRL, considering Petrobras' high dividend yield. This makes the stock attractive not only for its growth potential but also for its income-generating ability. A closer look at the daily chart reveals potential scenarios for either the completion of Wave 5 or Wave (3), highlighting areas where bearish divergence becomes more apparent. This divergence is evident due to the significant impulsive rises in the stock over recent months and weeks, which have created several imbalances. Despite closing gaps and reaching new highs, a downward correction is likely needed before we can see further upward movement. We anticipate that the correction in Wave (4) will take the stock lower, potentially reaching levels between 28.28 and 23.30 BRL.
BMFBOVESPA:PETR3
by freeguy_by_wmc
Bitcoin (BTC): Whats happening?Let's take a closer look at the Bitcoin chart, using a three-day timeframe. Here's the scenario we're observing: we've developed a significant bearish divergence. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently in a short but valid sideways phase, indicating an impending decision on direction—upward or downward break is expected in the coming weeks. Our analysis leans towards anticipating a Wave 4 correction. We suspect that it hasn't completed at the 23.6% level since, given the strong upward momentum previously observed. A deeper decline might be necessary before attempting to reach levels like $80,000, $85,000, or even $90,000. Nonetheless, we generally don't expect Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 in this cycle. Concerning potential downturns, if Bitcoin falls below the $49,500 mark (50% retracement level), we foresee possible support between $44,000 and $41,600, marking our worst-case scenario for this phase. The mega worst case would involve a drop to $31,000, which, while not impossible, is highly improbable under current conditions and thus unrealistic to expect. On the daily chart, the situation becomes a bit clearer after our previous analysis at $40,000. Since then, we've reached a new all-time high of $73,800 but have not regained our former strength, presenting the possibility that Wave (4) may have already concluded. There's also a chance that prices might dip again, and for this scenario, we plan to place a limit order at $55,236, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss just below the 50% level. If you're considering this setup purely for spot buys with a long-term hold strategy, you might opt to set another limit at the worst case scenario. We anticipate that the price should hold around $48,000. If it falls further, we'd consider secondary entries at around $40,000 and a third potential entry at $31,000. Depending on where the turnaround occurs, we expect the subsequent rise for Wave (5) and the overarching Wave I to reach between $78,000 and $88,000.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Tencent (700): Ambitious Targets - Preparing for a BreakoutFor Tencent Holdings Ltd. on the Hong Kong Exchange, we're seeing a scenario where the subordinate Wave (2) has likely concluded between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels around 260 HKD. We anticipate a breakout from this range heading upwards, ideally reaching the target zone for Wave (3) between 227% and 361.8% Fibonacci extensions, which translates to approximately 870 HKD to 1100 HKD. Though this target is quite ambitious, it remains plausible in the long-term scenario for Tencent. On the 4-hour chart for Tencent Holdings, we are observing a subordinate Wave 1 structure, which should be formed as a 5-wave structure heading upwards. The wave ((iii)) in this sequence has likely concluded at the high-volume node edge, fitting neatly between the 227.2% and 261.8% extension levels for Wave ((iii)). For the anticipated Wave ((iv)), we expect a more pronounced sell-off to between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, reaching down to our point of control, indicating significant buying interest at these levels. We'll place our stop-loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and beneath the maximum level where Wave ((iv)) can feasibly fall without invalidating our scenario. A brief dip into the level of Wave ((i)) is tolerable, but a prolonged stay would challenge the validity of our setup. We've also respected the trendline well, attempting a retest that should hold if valid, hence not anticipating a further drop. Our upward target is initially set at 416 HKD, beyond which we will look for new entries for a superior Wave 2 and continue to adjust our stop-loss from Wave ((iv)) accordingly.
HKEX:700Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Xiaomi (1810): From Double Bottom to Skyrocket!At Xiaomi HKEX:1810 , unlike Alibaba, all financial data is in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD) since we are examining the stock on the Hong Kong Exchange. We observed a double bottom formation at 8.28 HKD for Wave II, which also coincides with the bottom edge of our Volume Node. From there, we've seen a significant rise, over 100%, in a relatively short period, with the low occurring at the end of 2022. Currently, we are in a range that has historically moved through very quickly, known as a Low Volume Node. We may either bounce back down from here or break swiftly upwards to around 21 HKD. Given that we are in Wave III, we anticipate surpassing the peak of Wave I significantly, targeting levels above 36 HKD. Now, let's take a closer look into our long-term perspective on the chart. Upon closely analyzing Xiaomi on the 4-hour chart, we note a commendable 33% rise from our entry for Wave ((ii)). Congratulations to all who participated in this trade. However, we've developed a bearish divergence on the RSI, indicating a potential decline to form Wave (ii), which should fall between the 50% and 100% levels. We've marked a significantly broad zone since we anticipate substantial upside potential, at least up to 36 HKD, which alone represents a at least 144% increase. It wouldn't make sense to rigidly exclude any scenarios, given our past observations of double bottoms forming for Wave 2. The most probable range for this correction, in our view, is between the 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, we cannot dismiss the possibility of reaching the full 100%. There is a Low-Volume Node between the 50% and 78.6% levels, suggesting that if we cannot hold the first Fib levels, we might quickly drop lower—another reason for our broad stop-loss.
HKEX:1810
by freeguy_by_wmc
Alibaba (BABA): Finally Breaking Resistances!Looking at Alibaba, we have set our entry at $71.66 and found ourselves within a consolidation phase, oscillating between $65 and $77.77 for around three months, the latter marking our short-term resistance. We anticipated a breakout through this resistance upwards and this is what finally got this week! Fundamentally, Alibaba holds substantial potential, and from a technical standpoint, it appears promising as long as it maintains its current level. This was the third time we were testing the trendline, and we expected to break through it. There is still a chance to revisit lower ranges of this consolidation phase, if we can't hold the critical price level above $ 77. While we hope it doesn't occur, it remains a possibility. Looking upwards, we have set a very ambitious target, aiming for a rebound to between $200 and $300—a potential increase of approximately 300%. This long-term scenario hinges on stability in geopolitical and other external conditions.
NYSE:BABALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
WOO (WOO): Critical Moment -Will we Breakout or Breakdown?On the weekly chart of WOOUSDT, it appears that we are likely at the conclusion of Wave 4 or very close to it. This is inferred from the slight intrusion of Wave 4 into the level of Wave 1. In the volatile cryptocurrency market, such a minor breach is not considered a true break of the Wave 1 level for us, which is acceptable as long as it doesn’t lead to further declines. Currently, we are above the last assumed level of Wave 4 at $0.23. We now anticipate a robust rise to the range of $0.65 to $0.88, where the overarching Wave 5 is expected to find it’s end. On the daily chart, we face some complexity, but it allows us to examine the situation more closely. Since completing Wave 3 and the downward correction to Wave 4—with a three-part structure downward and the formation of a trend channel—we can continue with the assumption that until we break out of this trend channel upward, we won't see a contrary upward movement. There are two scenarios here: our primary scenario anticipates a breakout upwards, followed by a retest where we would enter to continue the upward trajectory. On the other hand, it's also possible that we could move lower to the Point of Control around 17 cents, where we might place long positions. However, this would invalidate our structure according to Elliott Wave Theory, requiring us to consider a different structure. Unless that happens, we remain optimistic about a potential upward breakout.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Polkadot (DOT): Are we done yet?We had to reassess the situation with DOT on the daily chart and have concluded that we are still not seeing the completion of Wave (2). Why is this the case? Because the correction downward following what we assume to be Wave (2) is too brief in duration to be considered a Wave 2. However, the upward movement towards Wave B was surprisingly strong. Since we have now fallen below the level of Wave A, and we make no exceptions for Wave 2 as we might for a Wave 4, we believe this represents an overshooting Wave B, which respected the 161.8% level almost to the cent. We now expect a downward movement that should reach between the 78.6% and 100% levels. Upon closer inspection, we also assume that what we overshoot upward, we'll compensate for downward, a typical characteristic of an Expanded Flat. Therefore, the 78.6% to 100% range is seen as crucial and robust. The low of $3.56 must not be breached, which would be far from ideal. On the daily chart, we also note a Fair Value Gap above, which remains the only gap on this chart. Eventually, all such gaps get filled. The question remains: will we move towards $4.85 or $9.50 first? Upon closer examination on the 4-hour chart, we've observed a four-wave structure since Wave B. Currently, we are respecting the 38.2% to 50% zone for Wave ((iv)) and remain below it. The scenario we believe in indicates a potential drop to $4.85. The timing is uncertain, and we may see some sideways movement for a while before experiencing a sharper decline. We've reached the 2.618 Fibonacci time zone, indicating a perfect setup for Wave (2). We've missed this by a day, but still anticipate a further decline, remaining within this golden zone. Additional Fibonacci clusters lend further confirmation, therefore, we expect significant buying volume in the range of $4.85 to $3.56. This would be an intriguing entry point as we are at the end of Wave (2), predicting that the subsequent Wave (3) will surpass Wave (1). The peak of Wave B at $11.88 offers a solid target, potentially making this a very interesting long-term swing trade.
BINANCE:DOTUSD
by freeguy_by_wmc
Silver (XAGUSD): Surge Beyond $28 or Pullback?The entire precious metals sector, including Silver, is currently of great interest, not just gold. For silver, we currently assume that we are probably nearing the end of Wave (iii), which can reach a maximum of 28.51 dollars. We are currently within our target zone for the Wave 5s, so it will likely be challenging to break through and invalidate the 461.8% extension level. If that were to happen, we would need to make adjustments. Otherwise, we believe we might see another drop to between 38.2% and 61.8%, i.e., between 25.75 dollars and 24.30 dollars. We will not place a limit order just yet. We first want to see some sell-off in this market before placing a limit order, to avoid having to adjust it frequently if it gets invalidated. So, wait until we send out the limit order.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Ethena (ENA): Why we’re betting BIG on this dip!We're setting up a swing entry for $BINANCE:ENAUSDT. There are several reasons for this decision, including the fact that we've captured all the buy-side liquidity we had previously marked and reclaimed these demand zones. Recently, we observed a Stop Fishing Point (SFP) during the second dip and now anticipate rising at least to the supply levels between $1.26 and $1.40. This is the range we are targeting. Additionally, we believe this could be a very interesting coin in the coming days or weeks. Therefore, this is our swing entry on a lower time frame for ENA.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Chainlink (LINK): Oversold and Undervalued. Surge to $37+Finally, after a long wait, we got filled on Chainlink, and we entered at $12.93. This is our entry point. The entry is holding up quite well and solid so far. We still see strength in Chainlink and we do not believe that our large stop-loss will be triggered. Also, for the first time since May 2022, the RSI has fallen into the oversold area, which is another sign of how strongly Chainlink has been sold off. We are holding on to this and still expect an increase to at least $37.45, probably even to $47.45.
CRYPTO:LINKUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Dogecoin (DOGE): Zoom Out and hop on the next Big Move!Starting with Dogecoin on the Monthly Chart, we're observing a potentially lucrative opportunity. The subordinate Wave ((iii)) has completed at the precise 161.8% extension level, and it appears that Wave ((iv)) has concluded within the 38.52% retracement range. A notable detail is the wick of the current monthly candlestick reaching down to close the Fair-Value-Gap on the Monthly Chart, suggesting a robust and effective market response. Given these developments, our expectation is that there won't be further significant dips below this level. Looking at Dogecoin on the Daily chart, we observe a significant Demand Zone which we believe should be respected if tested another time. We choose not to zoom in further as the range appears quite defined to us. We are placing our stop-loss just below this touched and thoroughly respected Demand Zone. If we repeatedly enter and "cut" through this zone, we might consider exiting the position prematurely. However, unless that happens, we plan to maintain our position. Our minimum target is the level of the previous All-Time-High. We anticipate breaking the local daily chart high of $0.23, aiming for higher levels as part of our ongoing trading strategy.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
THORChain (RUNE): Chances for a Swing TradeOn the two-hour timeframe, the clarity of the market movements for BINANCE:RUNEUSDT becomes even more evident. The end of Wave ((i)) is marked by our high at $11.47. Following this peak, there has been a consistent downtrend, punctuated by a brief corrective phase—this is typical market Elliott Wave behavior. We potentially have the end of Wave ((ii)) established within the 50% to 78.6% retracement levels. Additionally, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is marked in yellow on this chart. This scenario presents a second strategic play for Rune. We would wait for the price to rise, triggering a change in structure. This would involve retesting the trendline and the Fair Value Gap, then breaking out above and re-touching the support zone where we could place our entry. This strategy would represent a short-term trade opportunity but is quite intriguing due to the dynamics at play on the lower timeframe. It’s feasible that we might follow this plan depending on how the situation develops with Rune.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Cosmos (ATOMUSD): Awaiting a Deep DiveCosmos (ATOMUSD): BINANCE:ATOMUSD For Atom, we've had to adjust our limit order and counting as we observed an additional rise that did not fit into our initial analysis. This necessitates shifting our positioning of Wave (3) upwards. We are still within the ideal range of the 361.8% extension. Following this, we witnessed Wave (4) and an impulsive Wave (5) upwards, succeeded by a minor downward consolidation. In the coming days, we definitely expect to form a Wave (B) and then a Wave (C), although their precise locations are currently unclear. We lean towards expecting a Flat structure, typically between 100% and 138%; anything beyond would be excessive. Assuming that Wave (A) has reached its bottom at the current level, and if we break out significantly above $15.17, we will need to reassess the entire scenario. Until then, we anticipate seeing a three-part downward correction before reaching Wave (C) and thus completing Wave (ii). This Wave (ii) should find its absolute support at the 78.6% level and its associated support zone. Depending on the position of Wave (ii), we then expect a minimum rise for the subordinate Wave (iii) to at least $21. However, in the days or weeks to come, we should still anticipate another significant downward movement after having developed the Wave (B) upwards.
CRYPTO:ATOMUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
NVIDIA (NVDA): Why $1,077 Could Be Just the Beginning!NVIDIA (NVDA): NASDAQ:NVDA In our last analysis of NVIDIA, we presented an alternative scenario. However, given NVIDIA's relentless momentum, we find ourselves needing to adjust this scenario once more. We are now inclined to believe that we are still within a subordinate Wave 3 of the overarching Wave (3), anticipating that the price must reach at least the $1,030 mark, particularly considering the subordinate Wave ((iii)) precisely hit the 461.8% level. Following a rapid sell-off to Wave (a), we've observed the formation of Wave (b) with a three-wave structure right at the 100% mark. This leads us to position an entry for Wave (c) or Wave ((iv)), as we theoretically should achieve the 100% mark here too, aligning with the minimum 23.6% level for a Wave 4 around the 100% mark, thus establishing our entry point. Moreover, the gap present, along with the underlying support zone, could be crucial. Hence, we're setting our stop-loss just below this zone. For the upward movement, we anticipate that the subordinate Wave ((v)) of Wave 3 could reach at least up to $1,077, fitting within our minimum target range for Wave 3 and aligning well with our expectations. Should the price drop below this level, other zones could potentially accommodate a Wave ((iv)), but such a scenario would not be as rule-compliant, making this current scenario more likely than others. Considering NVIDIA's recent performance, this setup presents a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for a short-term trade. R:R - 6.3 Risk: max. 1%
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Polkadot (DOTUSD): The race begins now!Polkadot (DOTUSD): BINANCE:DOTUSD For Polkadot, we are setting our entry on the daily chart for a potential Wave 2. We expect it to reach between 61.8% and 78.6% because we don't believe the correction has been completed yet. We're leaning towards the idea that we're dealing with a Wave ((a)), as a closer look suggests we're seeing a five-wave downward correction, indicative of a potential zigzag correction for the Wave ((b)). Therefore, we shouldn't see too much upward movement before another downward movement occurs. The exact turning point in Wave ((b)) remains to be seen, but our scenario is clearly set between $10.85 and $11.30. Anything above that would require a closer examination, but we should not exceed this range. Then, we should move down to $8.24 to $7.25 to complete our overarching Wave 2. For Wave 3, we then expect a rise to at least $21.65, which represents a very significant increase with a very favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
CRYPTO:DOTUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Lido DAO (LDOUSD): Why We're Cashing Out 25% NOW!Lido DAO (LDOUSD): BINANCE:LDOUSD For Lido DAO, we're taking 25% out now, locking in profits 💰 , as we believe we've encountered the peak of Wave (i) and are currently entering Wave (ii). We aim to catch the bottom as we did with the overarching Wave ((ii)) previously. Therefore, we're setting a new entry at the 50% level at $2.8146 with a stop loss just below the 78.6% level and also slightly below our initial entry, as we don't expect the price to drop further. We'll be moving our first entry up, but not to break even. Instead, we'll position it below the 127.2% level, where the entire price action reversed, because a double bottom could occur for the subordinate Wave (ii), and it would be unfortunate to be stopped out in such a scenario. A further sell-off seems unlikely to us, so we're placing a new long entry zone limit order.
CRYPTO:LDOUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Aave (AAVEUSD): Setting Sights on Long-Term GrowthAave (AAVEUSD): BINANCE:AAVEUSD Aave is considered a very interesting cryptocurrency for us, both fundamentally and technically. We have concluded the overarching Wave II at $45.28. Since then, there has been a sideways movement, but it's essential to note that we are in the overarching Wave III. The minimum target for this Wave III is currently an 871% increase, which is a tremendous surge and is considered realistic over a very long-term scenario. This won't happen today, tomorrow, or even in the next few months, but it remains a highly interesting coin for the long term. Currently, we are subordinately finishing up a Wave (1) and are in the process of completing Waves 3. Zooming in further, we are in the midst of completing the encircled Wave ((iii)). This should reach between 61.8% and 100%, equivalent to $132 and $163. After this, we should see a pullback for Wave ((iv)) before completing the overarching Wave 3. We will be looking for an entry for this Wave ((iv)).
CRYPTO:AAVEUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Crude Chronicles: Unveiling the ZigZag Symphony - Quest for $55Crude Oil NYMEX:CL1! ! Let's delve into a crucial chart, our beloved Crude Oil (CL1!) Futures Contract. Starting the count post the pandemic dip, we've completed a 5-wave cycle reaching $130. After a subsequent drop, the Wave C formed in March 2023. Following that, in my analysis, we've crafted an upward Wave X around $95. Currently, we seem to be descending to form Wave Y or Wave II of the overall cycle, expected between $55 and potentially lower, around $50. This range holds significance, encompassing the Y-extension from 127.2% to 138%, and precisely the 61.8% retracement of Wave II. An essential zone, it coincides with a tiny accumulation phase from 2021, aligning with the 61.8% level. Zooming into the 2-hour chart, the B to C wave reveals a 5-wave structure, typical of a ZigZag pattern (5-3-5). Therefore we should see a 5-wave structure to the downside. Analyzing the current sequence, we've completed waves 1, 2, and 3, hitting the 161.8% mark – a minimum target for a Wave 3. We are anticipating a retracement for Wave 4 within 38-61.8%. A potential Flat pattern suggests the 38.2% level could act as support, projecting a move downwards after a slight surge. The primary scenario envisions a move to $55, invalidated if Wave ((iv)) surpasses the Wave ((i)) level, marked as "Invalidation," precisely above 61.8%. Several factors indicate a downward trajectory, making $55 a plausible target.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Cronos (CROUSD): Ready for correction?Cronos #CROUSD: CRYPTO:CROUSD Cronos a cryptocurrency that has shown exceptional performance since October 2023, marking the end of a correction at $0.0488. We've developed a Wave (1) and have completed a Wave (2), which ended as a zigzag correction. This correction reached the 61.8 to 78.6 level beautifully, a common occurrence in cryptocurrencies, often hitting exactly 78.6%. For the downward Wave C, the zigzag correction precisely hit the targeted 127 to 138% levels. This trade looks very promising. We're currently anticipating Wave (3), which should reach at least a 161.8% to 361.8% extension. Our expectations lean towards the range of 161 to 261.8%, but only time will tell. The next entry point is critical, and we're looking at the subordinate Wave 4 for this. We expect this wave to retrace between 38.2 to 50%. We don't foresee a drop deeper than the 50% level for Wave 4. The 38.2% level aligns exactly with the peak of the overarching Wave (1), while the 50% mark is approximately at the subordinate wave B level. Our stop-loss is placed just below the 50% level, also on a high between waves B and C, providing solid support that should contribute to a push upwards. We're expecting a rise to at least 161.8%.
CRYPTO:CROUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Polkadot (DOTUSD): The End of an UptrendPolkadot (DOTUSD): BINANCE:DOTUSD Polkadot appears to have completed Wave (2) with a notable level of certainty. Upon further analysis, it increasingly seems we're witnessing an ending diagonal pattern. This indicates the potential conclusion of the current uptrend shortly, leading to a corrective downturn for Polkadot. While Wave 1 could theoretically extend to $12.82, such a scenario appears less probable. The key factor now is whether we can breach the trendline. Should we remain confined within this diagonal pattern, a prompt downward shift may be expected. For Wave 2, our strategy involves repositioning within the 50% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone. Yet, we must wait to detect any signs of weakness in Polkadot before making our move, as navigating decisions amidst its ongoing bullish momentum presents a considerable challenge.
BITFINEX:DOTUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
4