CGC continues to tighten in Equilibrium PatternCGC is currently in a very tight equilibrium pattern. Although these conditions are not ideal for active trades or anyone looking to trade short term, they are ideal for those of you whom are patient and are willing to wait for a break to enter a short/long position.
Equilibrium patterns are my favourite pattern to trade from upon breaking as there is generally very significant movement to whichever direction it breaks.
Please note, although not textbook due to amount of time, some may argue that this is a bull flag scenario.
I will keep everyone updated as to what positions I open for CGC.
Equilibrium
A Daily EQ inside a Weekly EQ. Bulls need to break 3915USD!!Bitcoin is currently trading within a DAILY EQUILIBRIUM pattern. As you will know from my previous crypto weekly analysis, BTC is also trading within a WEEKLY EQUILIBRIUM with a recent weekly high potentially being set. Personally as a trader, I make the most money upon longer term EQ breaks, and the tighter things get, the more money there is to be made upon a break. Please read below for my current position in the market and for key prices to be watching to plan trade set ups off.
For the short term I am holding a neutral position and will sit out of the market and see if the bulls can test the 3915USD area. If the bulls can test the top of the DAILY EQ at 3915USD then this will lead to good trade set ups for both long and short positions.
By a good trade set up I mean, the ability to enter a position with an effective stop loss in place. e.g entering a position where you have significant support 1% below the price.
PRICES TO WATCH:
Top of Daily EQ- 3915USD (Bulls needs to push through and then look to test weekly EQ resistance)
Bottom of Daily EQ - 3679USD (If bears push price downwards of EQ then will look to test weekly EQ support in 3300USD area)
Of course as the macro trend is still bearish I will always be favouring short positions and would enter short if forced to be in the market. However, at the moment I would prefer to wait for a more favourable outcome for myself as a trader.
I am the unemotional, devotional trader that society doesn't deserve, but needs!
EUR/JPY Long with 5.1 R/R - bullish Orderblock + OTEDear Traders all around the world!
EUR/JPY is currently approaching a bullish OB right where OTE is. Along with that, we have support from the hourly 200-EMA .
Overall targetting for EQ of a liquidity void above our previous two swing-highs.
Note : A 4hr close above 126.720 is needed in order to reach our target. If we don't manage to do that, I'd take profit at this level.
Making use of 126.217 as a Stop-Loss here.
Total Market Cap needs a push for the BULLSAs you can see by the chart displayed, the total cryptocurrency market cap is in a clear Equilibrium pattern despite certain coins breaking into weekly uptrends and some getting within 1-2% ranges from bull breaks. We also have the 12 and 200 Weekly Exponential Resistances just above the current price which creates a more favourable trading environment for the bears on a weekly time frame.
The reason I argue that this is a more favourable trading environment for the bears is:
1- Low of Equilibrium pattern is around 3300USD so there is still a lot of room to the downside to for a higher low and continuing to tighten.
2- 12 and 200 exponential resistances overhead.
3- (Referring to BTC as a trade) Since we are a lot closer to the top of the Equilibrium range as opposed to the bottom, if one wants a bit more risk in their trade and doesn't want to await confirmation, a stop loss above EMAs or EQ top would be less of a margin then a stop loss below supports if a long position was taken.
4- The Macro Trend is still bearish. Until the trend is ACTUALLY changed, then the current trend has to be respected.
IF you are bullish, based off this chart and trading from the weekly time frame, I would not take any positions at the moment as an efficient risk management plan does not seem possible until a better set up occurs.
All in all, the best thing to do in this situation would be to wait for confirmation of a marketcap EQ break before entering long or short on trades. If I was forced to take a position, then as stated above, I would go short with stop losses in place from above EMAs to above EQ on BTC.
I am the Unemotional, Devotional Trader that Society doesn't deserve, but needs!
BTC Update! Another leg down but bulls respond!Bulls finally trying to defend today. Last couple charts have been on weekly time frame where we were watching to see if bulls could break to a higher high on weekly. They failed and made the lower high up at $4189 before the pretty dramatic sell off a few days ago.
Originally I was watching for a lower high in the low $4000's and then a fall to somewhere between $3600-3800. The quick fall to $3712 in a few hours had me very cautious that the bears were not done and was then expecting a slow few days before bears potentially dumped price again. We finally got the second leg down today where price fell from low $3800's to $3655. Positive is the bulls have bought that dip relatively well to bounce price back up towards $3800 as of this post.
I am now on daily time frame watching to see if bulls can build that buying volume and establish $3655 as the higher low we have been seeking for on the weekly chart. Still too early to tell but do like the fact the bulls woke up today and bought price back up.
Not pictured but if looking at 4 hour chart, watch the EMAs as 12 EMA has been solid resistance since we peaked at $4189 a few days ago. Bulls have rejected from this EMA 5-6 times now on the 4 hour time frame. A push above there with some bullish volume will help to confirm bulls are keeping the weekly chart within a healthy equilibrium. Another rejection and bears dropping price back down and the concern shifts to bulls running out of space to maintain a healthy higher low on weekly chart.
Again, I am heading out of town for several days so won't be back on charts until next week. Protect that capital, trade with patience.
Just My 2 Sats!
Another Equilibrium. Another Perfect Trading OpportunityHey guys,
if you followed me on my last post you would have known that I was anticipating the weekly Equilibrium to take place and was top phishing short positions from 3900-4200. We are still in this weekly equilibrium and we still have quiet a distance before our recent weekly low of 3,330USD and find ourselves in a 1hr Equilibrium.
I am personally keeping the macro trend as my friend, and putting on a short position now at 3772USD with 2x leverage. My stop loss as displayed on the chart will be at 3820USD which will be after an EQ bull break. Ideally in this situation I would make back the 2.6% I lose on this trade in a run up from the EQ break and a push from a potential daily EMA support.
This is an ideal trading situation whether you are long or short as it allows you to have tight stop losses in place and your risk:reward is IDEAL!!! with 1hr, 4hr EMA resistance ahead and the macro trend being bearish, I really have to favour the bears in this situation.
Guys, please give me a follow and a like if you find this analysis helpful to motivate me to provide more detailed and frequent trading content.
I am the unemotional, devotional trader that society doesn't deserve, but needs!
Short term pullback MOST likely. TOP PHISHING ANALYSISBTC is Currently sitting in a Weekly Equilibrium pattern (As you can see in white horizontal lines on chart).
BTC has a lot of work to do with the weekly EMA resistance showing early significance so far with a small price rejection. We are also approaching our previous weekly high around the 4200 area, which if broken, would create an extremely bullish mid term scenario which I cannot anticipate without some significant fundamental events occurring.
If we analyse the shorts chart from Bitfinex, we can see that we are at areas of accumulation on the weekly time frame, which in the past has triggered downward movement for Bitcoins price action.
With these particular things taken into account, I am top phishing short positions from 3900-4200 in anticipation for this weekly equilibrium pattern to continue and a lower high being set on the weekly time frame. Even for the bulls, a lower high, higher low then movements to higher prices would be the healthiest price action long term. So in saying this, for the short term, I am bearish and top phishing short positions. Also note, decreasing volume since initial bounce of the 'proclaimed' bottom.
When we zoom out and swing trade these larger movements then we can make plans a lot more effectively. Theoretically, if these top phishing opportunities do not prevail, then a stop loss will trigger above the resistance zone of 4200 and then there is the chance to make that money back on a potential bull run after breaking resistance.
I am the unemotional, devotional trader that society doesn't deserve, but needs.
BTC/USD Short with 5.4 R/R - possible SFP in playDear Traders all around the world
Today we're taking a look at BTC/USD. If you like my work, feel free to like & subscribe. I'm always interested in your opinions, so leave a comment down below!
We're finally taking out our 19th January high at $3784. As shown in the chart, we have a nice symmetrical triangle . Current trendline-top could match with a possible SFP (Swing-failure-pattern) . Therefore, I'm considering to short BTC/USD, while mainly targetting for $3220-3250. If we manage to close our daily candle above $3870-3890, this get's invalidated.
Letting PA develop before taking any further action. Updates following.
XAU/USD Long with 3.1 R/R - validation above range-highDear Traders all around the world
As analyzed in the previous XAU/USD chart we‘re looking for a daily close above $1315.20. I decided to take a look at the 4hr chart and maybe see things developing in advance.
Referring to the right chart in the picture, we just closed a 4hr candle above range-high at $1315.27. Turned out to be valid, as we just pumped to $1319.22. This closure & validation indicates us that we’re likely going to close our daily candle above range-high. Took out it‘s low right where EQ of our whole expansion is (where the tick is) and closed above EQ of our grey block. This means we gained control of the upper half of the block , which sends us to $1326.30. I expect us to engineer liquidity in our crucial-zone at $1332-1334.
Entry-zone: $1315 - $1316
TP1: $1317.50
TP2: $1320
TP3: $1325
TP4: $1330
Stop-Loss: Below EQ of current leg-up or 4hr close below range-high again. $1309.72
Updates following as daily candle develops. Daily close above $1315.20 is our key validation.
XAU/USD - crystallizing out important levels!Dear Traders all around the world!
If you want to support me, feel free to like & follow or even leave a comment! I'm always interested in your opinion.
Today we're crystallizing out important levels for XAU/USD, as further development could lead to decent R/R setups.
As highlighted in the left chart, we have two main similarities. Our current swing-move is mirrored to the first highlighted one. We're applying a Fibonacci with different retracement & extension levels. Most importantly, we have to gain control of EQ in order to raid our high and engineer liquidity above. Our -0.27 extension perfectly matches with a "clean high" at $1332.80, which could be a crucial zone for XAU/USD. In order to continue our uptrend, we have to daily close above $1314.50 - $1315.18.
Looking at the bigger picture, it's crucial that we close our weekly candle above $1314.43 . If we manage to do that, I'm targetting EQ at $1334.39. As you notice, both daily and weekly chart speak for the same things but deliver different/more confluence along with confirmation methods.
Crucial zone: $1332 - $1334
You want to get accurate calls and not miss any of these potential setups? At 25 likes I'll update this analysis on a regular basis and give you exact position details !
XAU/USD Short with 12.0 R/R - rejection of OTEDear Traders all around the world
First of all, thanks for all the support I get! My S&P 500 Analysis reached the top in the US Indices section. If you like my work and want to motivate me even more, simply like & follow not to miss any of my high-reward trades!
Today we're taking a look at XAU/USD , as it seems we could go down from here. At the very moment we're perfectly rejecting OTE of our whole retracement, while sitting at June 18' prices. Referring to the picture in the comment-section, we have a very clear bearish-divergence on the daily RSI . Along with this, our weekly 200-MA is sitting right at EQ of our retracement (refer to picture in the comment-section again) Did you notice this nice trendline ? With these four confluences, I'm aiming for EQ .
Averaged-out-entries: $1302, $1306, $1309 - 50%, 25%, 25% each
TP1: $1289.90
TP2: $1277.5
TP3: $1266
TP4: $1250.5
Stop-Loss: $1310.95
USD/CHF Short with astronomical 12.3 R/R - approaching OTEBefore I'll give you more information about this analysis, I'd really appreciate if you share some love with me through likes & follows, not to miss any of my further analysis!
Today we're taking a look at USD/CHF . It seems like USD/CHF is ready for a decent drop in price. As you can see on the chart, we have two different options to play this.
We're currently approaching OTE and have already rejected our green zone between 0.99887 - 1.00070 (yet). I'm targeting at least for Equilibrium ( EQ ), which is at 0.98940, along with other confluences such as a clean previous high & our 200-MA , both sitting right there.
Entry-zone: 0.9988 - 0.9998
TP1: 0.99373
TP2: 0.99222
TP3: 0.98940
TP4: 0.98560
Stop-Loss: 1. Option: Above 5th December high (slightly above the green zone) at 1.00091
2. Option: Back in consolidation-zone at 1.00426
Updating this analysis as PA develops.
BTC Update! Tightening pattern! Will it break bullish or bearishQuick update. BTC has been tightening up really ever since the bull move on Monday. Bulls saw a strong push upwards and topped out at $3711. The ideal from there for bulls would have been brief consolidation and then another leg up. Instead we have entered into an equilibrium pattern of higher lows and lower highs.
BTC pulled back from the $3711 level down to $3539. They then formed a lower high at $3667, another higher low at $3541 (essentially a double bottom), another lower high at $3657 (essentially a double top) and are now in process of pulling back again and seeking another higher low compared to $3541. As these higher lows and lower highs tighten, it does not give much wiggle room for price action and the tighter the pattern can get, the more likely scenario for a strong break when either the lower highs or highs lows break.
I personally did scale into a position on LTC on the pullback a couple days ago and now have my stop loss set using its most recent low so gives me less than a 1% risk from my fill position. I usually don't play fills in this manner but it was a relatively small position and happened to be at computer when some type of negative news on ETH came out and was watching a fairly quick bearish run across ETH, BTC and LTC so opted to go ahead and fill some for LTC.
Ideally I want to see BTC break its equilibrium bullish and thus allow LTC to hopefully run up a stronger % than BTC sees. Equilibrium patterns like this for BTC are 50/50 patterns and for bulls if they break above the most recent lower high, we want to see market buys and stop buy orders filling which provides the volume and gets bulls piling in to give one of the strong pushes upward. Those playing bearish seek the opposite with the higher lows failing and triggering stop losses or market sell orders to dump the price down quickly. Hoping to see a break today or tomorrow on BTC to give the market a direction for the next few days. If we see a bull break, will need to see that continuation and get the higher lows and higher highs pattern re-established. If BTC sees a bear break, I'll be extremely patient and waiting to see if the bulls can continue to defend our lows in that $3100-3200 range.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Bulls running out of steam? Equilibrium?Here we go again. Thus far bulls have seen a very healthy move and made for a very profitable trade. I continue to hold the remaining half of my position as bulls have not lost the 4 hour uptrend.
BUT I am keeping a closer watch now so here are some things I am personally keeping an eye on.
Yesterday we were hopeful to see if $3637 would hold as a higher low compared to one below of $3437 and it did. This allowed me to move SL up to full profitable position on trade.
Bulls ran up to $4175 from there which is our current top of the bull move.
Last night we saw yet another higher low forming at $3878 which is where I am now at for new SL.
Here is where things started to turn for me. We saw a decent upper wick on $4175 top as well as the two candlesticks before. This indicates some decent profit taking to me.
We then saw a decent lower wick on $3878 so bulls are still buying that dip.
However, we then formed a lower high at $4162 and also saw a decent upper wick.
Bulls technically have a new higher low at $3896 but its so close to $3878 I tend to slide in with lower one for stop losses.
But bulls again bought that dip and now have $4098 potentially setting up as another lower high.
12 EMA on 4 hour continues to hold support so is another area I am watching to see if it caves which would then likely send us to lower lows on 4 hour.
Those familiar with my trading style, this is an equilibrium where we start setting lower highs and higher lows, tightening up the range in which we are trading. I do expect a break of this pattern likely today. If a bull break, I am personally looking to scale out and do not expect a ton of follow through as our daily chart is going to need to consolidate soon anyways.
If a bear break then I will utilize stop loss to lock in profits from the trade.
A bear break does not mean the bulls are done and simply would just zoom out to daily chart to see how much consolidation occurs. Bulls will still want to keep that bearish volume in check and allow the daily chart to comfortably form its higher low compared to our low down at $3129. All of this would be perfectly healthy but as a trader, I still want to protect profits and would rather lock those in the rebuy (ideally lower than where I sell) on the consolidation of the daily chart if that consolidation is healthy.
Just My 2 Sats!
$MAT to test crucial support$MAT has been in free fall for a while and is about to test monthly order block. Good opportunity for a long position, especially considering divergences on virtually any time frame.
BTC Update! Following pattern nicelyYesterdays chart we were watching the bulls as well as the shorts chart and I stated "in order to see these shorts get squeezed, the bulls need to break above $3486 (perhaps to somewhere in the 3500's) and then pull back briefly for a higher low and then break out again and into the 3600s+ for shorts to truly feel any pressure and create the squeeze to give a good size run up"
The bulls were able to break above $3486 and ran another $100 up to $3586 before pulling back to set their lower high which they set down at $3437. Bulls are now back on the move and would love to break into $3600's tonight. If they set a lower high here, they'd then again look for a higher low and just tighten up the pattern before the eventual bear or bull break.
I personally did scale into positions in the upper $3400's on the consolidation yesterday and will comfortably use the stop loss from our higher low. Thus far, volume looks fine with no red flags. EMAs on 4 hour are slowly catching up and could potentially serve as a support (as well as another higher low) tonight or tomorrow. Its nice to see some bullish movement but still a lot of work on daily and weekly charts to reverse any trends on the larger time frames.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Shaping into a 4 hour equilibrium?Another quick update. Nothing jumping out for me to be bullish or bearish on a trade here so remaining all cash personally. I do see a potential 4 hour equilibrium shaping up as we have our low of the dump yesterday to $3508, a lower high at $3800, a higher low at $3563 and appears to be trying to put in another lower high at $3763 here. I'd like to see things tighten up a bit more with another higher low/lower high or two before it breaks. Would give some low risk entries for bulls and bears to both take on depending on the direction it broke. But for now, just something I'll keep an eye on. Needs to tighten up to get traders interested and not worried too much on a bear break with the bears getting follow through but would worry about a bull break and bulls having issues with follow through. Bulls just lacking confidence so tough to trust any type of bull break to not immediately get knocked down by bears.
Drew in some dashed lines for hypothetical to watch for into tonight and ideally even into early part of tomorrow if it can continue to tighten. Time will tell if anything comes of it.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Equilibrium in play! Levels to watchHere we go again. A few days ago on my last post I was looking for another leg down from our low at the time of $4863 and we easily got that with an eventual bottom of $4,035. Since then I am watching an equilibrium pattern.
Those not familiar it is the start of lower highs and higher lows and the pattern tightens up. To me, its like a spring being wound tightly until it eventually breaks.
So on this chart we had $4035 as the low, $4628 as a lower high (compared to $4759), $4336 as out first higher low, and then $4589 as another lower high (set yesterday).
Bulls will attempt to form a higher low here compared to $4336 and are currently sitting right around $4400 as I type this.
This is a low risk entry point for traders to try and scale in between $4340-4450 or so and have $4336 as the stop loss. Bears will be waiting likely around 12 EMA (orange line) if the bulls do form a higher low and move back up in order to try and set another lower high compared to $4589 and continue to tighten the range up. I am personally in a partial position here with one more order to fill in the $4300's and will look to use the stop appropriately. I would lean towards a bear break still on this pattern but the low risk entries here have me at least interested in my first trade opportunity in over two weeks since I last took profits.
Bulls must set a higher low here and ideally get above 12 EMA and then get the higher high to try and start some momentum on the bullish side. Spikes in bear volume, a fall to a lower low set BTC bulls up for a dangerous situation to re-test $4k level again. Something I personally want to be away from.
HEXO tight rangeTomorrow, HEXO enters day 5 of the right range from 8.12 support and 8.63 resistance. Breaking this bearish will have us test supports of 7.71, daily MA20 and 6.76. Breaking bullish will have us test 9.09 all time high, and potentially break that. Volume on the break will be my key indication of power and momentum.
ACB bulls draw a line in the sandACB spent the better half of Friday defending $11.75 as a line in the sand, despite the hourly bearish MACD divergence. If that cannot hold I would not expect 11.65 to hold, resulting in an Inside Bar bear break. From there I would zoom out to the 4hr chart and look for a higher low compared to $10.18 and a tightening range from there.
Investment rumours from Coca Cola give correlation favour to the bulls, and I would expect ACB to hold up better than other names should we see sector-wide consolidation this coming week.
Looking at previous CGC all time highs for clues into next weekThe similarities I've highlighted here look better on WEED than on CGC because Jan 15th saw the TSX trade but not the US exchanges. That said I'm looking at similarities in the first oversold bounces following the last two all time highs at 35.88 in January and 36.55 in June. Subsequent those bounces we saw a tightening range playing out across more than a week of trading before the equilibrium finally broke - down.
In each of the previous two examples the price set a lower low compared to the low of the oversold bounce. It's very possible this happens again, but with legalization being such a huge catalyst, it's also quite likely that support holds and we enter into a larger daily equilibrium prior to continuation of the current bull move.
The most important support to me heading into next week is 40.68. The best case scenario for the bulls is to hold 46.20 to show they're in absolute control over the coming days.
There are several fundamental things I'm watching here. CNBC is covering the MJ sector numerous times each day, and I've noticed a shift in their coverage from "stocks rocketing higher", to "we're in a bubble." This shifted with the implosion of TLRY on Wednesday and the 50% drop in share price within an hour (now down a full 65% from the highs). CNBC has an agenda here, and that's currently a risk to bullish positions in the sector.
Second is the amount of short interest in these stocks right now. each of WEED, ACB, and APH are among the most shorted stocks on the TSX, and each have had an incredible increase in short positions opened over the course of September (regrettably I do not know if this information exists for CGC - if someone has this info please hit me up in the comment section below!)
Finally, there is the potential of other major catalysts such as global companies entering into the sector in the form of investments, partnerships, and other agreements or LOIs. These events have the potential of squeezing short positions to cover, now so they can enter again later.
@DonnaSko, on a previous idea you asked about my thoughts on a long position in CGC. I don't like a long position right now; If this tightening pattern does break upwards and we see new highs, I fully expect a selloff on or within a few days (before/after) of October 17th, 2018 legalization date, followed by a long drawn out period of consolidation. If for whatever reason we do not see new highs, and break down setting new lows from here, I will have to reassess the situation from that stand point. From here I only really like two entries for longs. The first would be to bottomfish against 40.68 support with a stop-loss below that price to protect your capital should should the sector break down from here for whatever reason. The second would be to enter on the break of 52.60, which would be a bull-break of the current 4hr equilibrium we're currently suspended in. With an entry there I'd place my stop-loss below the most recent low, which is currently 46.20. Either way, I would absolutely take profit on or just before October 17th as I fully expect that catalyst to be a sell the news event, should we continue the bull run up until that date. Then I'd wait patiently to buy back in much cheaper for a long term investment position.
CRON - letting the dust settleCRON was all bulls today out of the gate setting a new all time high before pulling back hard. I'm watching the CRON range expecting a daily equilibrium from low of the oversold bounce to high of today. It's notable CRON is the only name that hasn't lost it's 4hr uptrend.
I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. The 4hr chart currently looks bear-flaggy with extended hours on, although the big lower wicks are a point aginst that possibility. Breaking the low of today would confirm the bear flag.
Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
I find the most clarity on the 4hr and daily charts.
APH - letting the dust settleWatching the APH.TO range from low of the oversold bounce to high of today. Today we saw our lower high set and bulls are now looking for a new support level above 15.76.
Today's low bounced right off the .5 retracement of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that new support holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow.
Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
I find the most clarity on the daily chart.
