Equites
#BDMS - Breakout Alert Rectangle Chart PattenBreakdown of the rectangle chart pattern in BDMS
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Co. Ltd. is dedicated to the health care business. The company operates through two segments: Hospital Operations and Other Businesses. The value is listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
The BDMS price developed a rectangle chart pattern of possible distribution zone, of almost 8 months duration. I do not consider this pattern as a Head and Shoulders, although the volume follow its characteristics, but the closing prices, without bear the wicks in mind, the left shoulder and the head have the same level. Also, the upper boundary acting as strong resistance at 27.3 levels and the lower boundary acting as strong support at 24 levels. Both limits have been tested several times before the breakdown. The price has broken the uptrend line of 1 year and 7 months in addition the price action below the 200-day average.
- A daily close below 23.3 levels, confirms the breakdown of the pattern.
- The possible target price of the chart pattern is at 20.8 levels.
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Note: The entry and exit levels are references according to the principles of classical charting. Each trader must take their own decisions depending on their strategy and risk of entry and exit. These levels do not indicate specific entry and exit prices, only possible changes in the technical price action.
Alibaba is in a clear downtrend. Don't be fooled by perma-bulls.Alibaba is in a clear downward trajectory, and the weekly moving averages would agree with that statement at this time. Currently, price bounced off of a previous zone we saw it wick to back in late October/early November, and price is currently retesting its previous support zone-now-turned resistance around 140. I'm watching the 200 weekly moving average an area for the price to potentially drop down to, and if we continue lower, I'm watching 110, 80-85, 75, and 58 as area's of potential support. As I've said in other posts on different stocks, these short-term rallies/dead-cat bounces are nothing to get caught up with in my opinion. Those perma-bulls on the mainstream media will continue encouraging people to "buy the dip" but to me, that notion is just stupid. We have been on a 10-year bull run and most stocks are extremely over-valued in my opinion and need to correct back down to lower levels. It's basic market cycles ladies and gentlemen. If we manage to get back above (and hold as support) several key moving averages, I will change my stance. For now, I remain bearish .
Moving average guide:
10 MA in Orange
20 MA in Pink
50 MA in Green
100 MA in Yellow
200 MA in Red
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
Stocks Forming Significant BottomIf ES can close this week above 2495 I wouldn't want to be short anymore!
Here the midpoint is the split between the two consecutive green up weeks we had on Oct. 29 and Nov. 6 (circled). Price also bounced off the 2460 zone today (also circled), which was an important zone in Sept. last year - it was the launch point for a significant rally.
I'm cautiously buying but will want to see how this week closes tomorrow before entering more longs/covering more shorts.
Rates and equities rendez-vousToday may be the day we get the long-awaited bounce in rates and equity. SMI is showing signs of strength with a positively sloped trendline. ES1! appears to fight the sellers' pressure and bounces of the anticipated support at around 2627.00 forming a triple bottom. Now the first resist is visible at 2712 but the major one is expected to be located at around 2800.00.
Rates are looking really oversold (overbought bonds). Probably given the oil price. Last time when rates were at these levels the water was flowing down the river, the yellow vests were non-existent and Macron had more support than Trump. Most importantly - ES futures were hitting 2900.00! Let's see where this bounce gets us. It still may be just a correction before a recession. Many things can happen.
Word to close for today: CASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME EXCEPT WHEN IT IS JUST A FIAT CURRENCY
S&P500 - trade progress playPure speculative position on the China-US trade talks. Trump had reached agreement with all "enemies" so far (NAFTA, North-Korea) his negotiation tactics include initial hard-talk and then agreeing.
US equity market range is 8%, a current trade will be a quick die or win position.
Correlations: US30/DE10/JP10 yr bonds with the S&P/DowThis was an experiment to find any relevant patterns or correlations between US Bonds/equities. Nasdaq was not included due to it's high %'s skewing the perspectives on the chart
Green vertical lines were "buy signals", and the red lines were sells. The result is that there definitely is some correlation here with the "oversold"/overbought" position on US 30yr bonds and US equities. What I'm seeing is more often than not it is an accurate indicator for a trend reversal, and also that it is not time for a buy "long term" yet. That signal comes (more often than not) when the 30 yr bond price is overbought on a weekly timeframe.
I'm expecting an equities bounce in the next few days, but I'll be setting my long term buy targets lower. S&P around 2200-2300 wouldn't surprise me before the end of 2019
Respecting the bearish channel in SPX - SHORTS THROUGH 2685Trade set up: Our bias leans towards a short in the SPX, where we are looking for a break below the recent low of 2685 to enter the position. Upon this development, we would set a stop loss at 2725 and our take profit set at 2603. This profit target is subject to change and dependent on the price action, as a break of 2603 would hold huge bearish implications. We will update this idea as it plays out.
Why we like it: Technically the trade is pointing to a solid short opportunity – with the stochastic momentum heading lower, and short-term price analysis showing a series of lower lows and highs. The 5-day EMA has acted as dynamic resistance and contained the rallies of late. We also note the recent 8% relief rally reversed off the 61.8% Fib level.
Our view is to wait for a break of the 30 October high of 2685, as this would throw a probability of an extension of the bearish channel and suggest a move into the neckline of the recent double top at 2603.
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S&P500 - dangerous break Yesterday I tried to short the SPX500, unfortunately, got caught in the 100MA retest candle with a tight stop. Technically there's an easy 3% downside from here for US equities.
Fundamentally US CPI data is a key driver for FED and consequentially for US equities. A higher reading would be negative for stocks in my view.
Morning divergenceThe week start with a significant raise in yields (US10Y) accompanied by a downside move in equities (ES1!). Seems like we witnessed a bounce off the EMA and the beginning of October's support. I wouldn't be so sure however given the explosion in yields. One is wrong the other one is correct that's for sure. Watch carefully the support and possible resistance at 2744.
Update 2: Stock Market Relief Rally CompletingWednesday's rally did indeed hit resistance at the 2732 level and then pulled back some (green arrow). Enough for partial profits but nothing to write home about. The pullback was short-lived and continued strength on Thursday gave way to a significant breach of the 2732 level on Friday (red arrow). To me this means one of two things:
1) I have the wrong midpoint and the 2732 zone was not the right level to focus on for shorts
2) The midpoint was correct, the green arrow was all the correction we'll see, and the market will now continue pushing higher next week, possibly setting up a wave inversion where the upward wave will actually be about twice as big as the one I've been presenting.
At this point scenario 2 is favored. This could imply that the market sell-off of October is over and we will slowly resume the overall bull. I will remain flat until I see signs confirming either scenario and then reposition accordingly.
Straits Times Index (Daily Chart) - Where is the Bottom?Since our last predictions on the Straits Times Index, the price has continued to fall from 3300 to 3000, and then below it.
At this rate of decline, is there any support or bottom in sight?
I generally do not like to do projections, because most projections are just guesses.
The best way to know is to observe the price as it moves, then you will know when it has likely bottomed.
And for now, it still looks like it can continue to fall.
So i will stay bearish and continue to monitor.
Divergences: ES, US10YStarting off the day with diverged asset classes. 10Y note yields has gone lower while SPX futures showed some resistance and look like they are about to break out higher from the small (and a little bit crooked) wedge that formed. During writing of this post the divergence is disappearing :( SMI suggests downward move but this may not be the case. Watch closely along with european equities. Last monday was negative even though it was showing strength in the pre-open session. Watch the main trendline
BLACK MONDAY 1987 – COULD IT HAPPEN AGAIN?USA30, Daily
On the third Monday of October 1987, Black Monday, as it became known in the financial markets, happened. October 19 1987 saw the largest single-day fall in global stock markets, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA30) also fell a record 23% in a single trading day. In Europe the UK FTSE100 (UK100) fell on the Monday too but worse was yet to come as the weeks wore on.
So what happened in 1987?
Throughout the year, share prices and the level of market activity took off. In January 1987 the FTSE 100 was at 1,680. Sharp rises in January and February took it to 1,980 (a rise of 18% in a few weeks). After a pause for breath in March the Index rose another 11% in April and May, nearly 3% in June and no less than 7.5% in the first two weeks of July, to peak at 2,443 at the close of business on July 16. In a little over 6 months the Index had risen by over 45%.
From then on it moved downwards during August, touching 2,185 – a fall of some 9% from its peak a month earlier. September and the first 11 trading days of October saw it recover to 2,302 by the close of business on Thursday October 15.
The night of October 15/16 1987 was also the night of the Great Storm for the South and South East of England. It all but closed the London markets on the Friday, the day the bubble burst on Wall Street. Feverish press speculation over the weekend caused prices to be marked sharply lower at Monday’s opening in both Tokyo and London. The FTSE fell to a low below 2,000 by mid-afternoon before recovering to close at 2,052, a fall of 250 points or 11% from Thursday night’s close.
There was worse to come. On Tuesday October 20, following the record-breaking 23% fall on the DOW the day before, the FTSE opened at 1,866. It fell to a low of 1,748 before staging a final hour recovery to close at 1,802. Wednesday saw a recovery of 140 points, but the fall began again, although less severe than on the Monday and Tuesday. Punctuated by the occasional rally, the market drifted lower and on November 9 closed at 1,565, a fall of 737 points or 32% from the close of business on October 15, just 15 business days earlier.
At that point the Index was 7% below its level at the beginning of the year, but it took over two years for the FTSE100 to breach its eve-of-crash level of 2,303.
In price terms the crash of 1987 was a rather nasty short term readjustment to a long term uptrend which had begun in the early 1980s. The froth or candy floss of the first nine months of the year was wiped out but it did not eliminate the serious long term investors who held their nerve. Psychologically however, especially in the UK, it had a major effect on the millions of small private investors who bought shares in the privatizations of the early and mid-1980s. In the ten years that followed only 250,000 of those small shareholders bought shares again.
So 31 years later could it happen again? YES is the clear answer, according to researchers from the Universities of New York and Boston.
A single-session drop as big as the one in 1987, for example, is predicted — over long periods of time — to occur once every 104 years, on average. So it’s possible we’ll get two 20% crashes in our lifetimes — or none.
Haven’t securities regulators figured out how to prevent crashes as big as 1987’s? After all, they’ve had decades to study why it occurred, as well as similar events like the infamous “Flash Crash” of 2010. Haven’t they instituted any number of structural changes designed to prevent future crashes?
The researchers believe such structural changes cannot prevent another crash. Every market, to a more or less similar degree, is dominated by its largest investors, and when something spooks those large investors into simultaneously selling, they will inevitably find ways of doing so, regardless of the regulators’ reforms.
The investment implication is clear: We should construct our portfolios so that declines like 1987’s won’t be fatal. If big drops are intolerable, then that probably means you are too exposed to the stock market in the first place. October is traditionally a highly volatile month on global stock markets and as indices turn away from all-time highs for now, the old adage remains as valid as ever “Trade what you see, not what you think”.
Today is the third Monday of October 2018 and last week the USA30 lost 4.2% and the UK100 lost 4.41%.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
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