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Equity

The unknown obvious: equity controlIt's easy to get a mili a year if you trade 100M account, that'll be 1% a year. A lil bit harder but still easy af to get a mili of you have 10M capital, that'll be 10% a year. That's how many of "skilled" and famous market participants earn dem money. You might say, "Wait, but that's really not a lot, markets can give much more for these capitals". Yes but given what they have it's all they can do. They been running very shitty bots for decades, they don't really understand how the market works & how to operate. It's especially widespread in cryptos, a lot of people got rich by accident and now they tryna run a business xD Anyways, there's a tool that helps dem all to get that 10%/y for investors money, a very obvious thing that is called equity control. Look at the chart here, is this an equity chart of some1 who've bought TSLA stock during IPO or is it price chart of TSLA stock? If you think deeper, you don't really care about the price of an asset, you care about your equity. If you buy an asset and then look at your account equity after a while, these two charts will be the same. Every strategy can be viewed as a response modifier, it takes an asset chart, for example, IBM stock, and transform it into a different equity chart, with the ultimate goal of having constant always rising equity chart. Market is fractal, the same principles propagate through all the resolutions, they also propagate to your equity chart. How can you affect an asset chart? You can buy or sell, 2 actions. How can you affect equity chart? You can reduce size (down to zero) or increase size, 2 actions. So what these "skilled" and famous participants do, they stop sending they orders to the real market when a shitty bot/trader/manager starts to loose money, but continue trading on a simulator. When this entity starts to earn money again, it gets "connected" to the real market again. How do they define earning/loosing money? They apply the same strategy/quantitative method they use on asset charts. It could be an SMA, I won't be surprised. Thing is, you can use the same concept in the right way, you can apply a good method on your equity chart to boost the performance in certain times.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by gorx1
2
LULU - Short OpportunityTechnical Analysis: A bearish head and shoulder pattern has emerged and a short signal appeared. A break below 273.6 would be a clear confirmation of long term downtrend. Fundamental Catalyst: LULU inventories increased 85% in Q3 2022 compared to Q3 2021. With over 60% of their revenue coming from retail, LULU will continue to face immense competition from e-commerce sellers of athleisure wear that offer equally good quality apparels but at more affordable prices. The recession will likely hit the company hard. LULU has been underperforming in the retail sector index. Will observe the price action for the next few days / weeks and update when there is an entry opportunity. NASDAQ:LULU
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by Momentum_Master682
SocGen (GLE.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart of the French company Société Générale S.A. (GLE.pa). Société Générale S.A., colloquially known in English as SocGen is a French-based multinational financial services company. Société Générale is France's third largest bank by total assets after BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole. It is also the sixth largest bank in Europe and the world's eighteenth. It is considered a systemically important bank by the Financial Stability Board. The Triangle broke through the support line on 02/12/2022. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 14 days towards 21.785 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 24.400 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Societe Generale SA agreed to merge large parts of its equities business with AllianceBernstein, intensifying the French bank’s bid to eclipse BNP Paribas SA in share trading. he Paris-based bank and AllianceBernstein will unite their cash equities trading and research units in a joint venture. SocGen will hold 51% and have the option in five years to buy the whole business, which will be run out of London under the Bernstein name. The venture signals ambitions to take on BNP Paribas’ strengthened equities offer after the rival French bank took full control of its trading unit Exane and added businesses from retreating rivals. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
EURONEXT:GLEShort
by legacyFXofficial
SPX: BREAKING OUT OR BREAKING DOWN?MACRO FACTORS: Given the recent CPI print coming in over 9 in conjunction with a labor market that refuses to slacken, there is little reason to believe that a FED pivot is anywhere on the horizon. It can seem perplexing as to why the FED would continue to hike rates when it doesn't seem to be having the intended deflationary effects at the economic level, but when we consider the amount of fixed rate debt that currently exists in the marketplace and how delayed that latent impact can be on consumers, it’s easier to understand how modifications to base effects can take 3 or 4 quarters before tangibly emerging onto main street. The above chart is illustrative of a strong labor market and is currently one of the largest impediments towards the Fed’s inflation taming efforts. The top box (JTSJOL) shows the Total Non-Farm Job Openings just beginning to roll over, but not yet below its moving average (green line). We see this as more likely a result of job offers being rescinded than it is of jobs being filled and a potential indication of companies downsizing or reducing the rate of hiring in anticipation of slowed growth expectations over the next few quarters. The second box (JTSQUR) shows the Total Non-farm Quits. The quits are indicative of job insecurity levels amongst workers. When workers are feeling confident in their ability to get another job, they are more inclined to quit their current job to “trade up”. When workers perceive a negative, future, economic outlook, increased fear of company downsizing can begin to set in. This results in an increased probability of workers feeling less confident about their prospects in the jobs market, which eventually emerges in the Quits rate beginning to trend down. Quits has begun to roll over, but just like the Job Openings, it has yet to cross over its moving average (green line above), indicating it might have some more downside wood to chop in order to properly insatiate Chairman Powell. SPX 1D: Moving into our S&P500 index analysis, we see price moving into the upper 3rd standard deviation of its downward trending 100-day linear mean indicating the potential for a breakout or breakdown type of market inflection point over the next few days or weeks. The SPX broke YTD, highs on both the DMI and RSI indicators over the course of this week’s rally, giving further credence to the “lows are in” theory and bringing the long dormant bulls out of the closet after months of being driven into hibernation by the high-grading, bears. Despite these bullish signals it is our opinion that this is nothing more than a "bear market rally/dead-cat bounce" off the recent floor and here's why: DMI: Our DMI indicator is showing strong positive divergence from the +DI which hit YTD highs, but the ADX differential, which measures the strength of the price move by gauging its potential for impulsivity, is well below the significance level of 25 coming in at 17.4. This translates to significant upward price action with low volume conviction. In other words, a weak move. VFI: Taking one look at our Volume Flow Index we see that while volume flows have come up over the moving average, flows are a long way from pressing up toward the zero line like they were during the March rally. Given the unlikeliness of the bulls closing the distance on the volume gap, we consider it unlikely that price will be able rise substantially further than it already has without significant volume inflows. Significant volume inflows can be hard for markets to procure in a liquidity tightening cycle such as the one we are in right now. RSI: While our RSI is not quite at the overbought line of 70, it is the highest reading YTD on a 1 day time frame chart at 65.9, and is well into overbought (above 70) on longer intraday timeframes. Recent history on 4H and 1D times frames has shown price beginning to reject at these levels on the RSI and we don't see this time as being any different barring a pivot from the FED which seems equally unlikely at this point. MULTI-TIME FRAME MACD: Taking a look at our MACD from a multi time frame perspective starting in the lower left hand corner and moving counter clockwise, we have 1DAY (lower left), 1WEEK (lower right) and 1MONTH (top) time frames. Starting with our short term, 1 day (1D) time frame in the lower, left box we see we are in a substantial bullish trend with MACD and Signal illustrating strong spread divergence at the mouth. This indicates that there is enough price cushion in the short-term trend for MACD to remain positive even on a small pull back. Moving to the lower-right box we have the 1-week (1W) time frame which is just beginning to roll over to the upside after printing two positive weeks of tape with the most recent being a YTD high on the MACD histogram which measures the breadth of signal divergence. This rally has been a violent move to the upside, which is commonplace in a liquidity starved market, sensitive to even the slightest upticks in volume inflows. While the lower time frame MACD charts appear positive, it’s the 1-month MACD indicator, that is most troubling. This is the most significant drawdown on a 1-month MACD indicator in 22 years, including both the 2001 and 2008 financial crisis. While the steepness of the descent-angle is leveling off, the breadth of the divergence at the mouth is gaping. It does not appear that the 1-month MACD indicator is going to be crossing back positive anytime soon. From a structural perspective we can see that the bulls have their work cut out for them if they want to turn the 100-day linear trend around. Due to the March 2022 high's still propping up the back end of the 100-day linear trend (See horizontal line labeled ‘MARCH RALLY’ above.), the bulls would need an impulsive move to the upside, past the +3SD line at 4217, up to the 4300 price region. At this point price would need to consolidate above the 4100 level for a few days in order to put enough pressure on the 100-day linear mean to begin shattering the trend. A significant breach of the lower EMA Envelope (green tab) at 3899 would substantially increase the probabilities of this recent rally coming to an end. Given the low volume flows, lack of ADX follow through on the DMI and an RSI approaching overbought on the 1day time frame, we see the shattering of the down-trending, 100-day, linear mean as an unlikely outcome over the course of the next week to 10 days. Solid price architecture is built on strong volume flows that speak to market conviction around directional sentiment. We are not seeing that market conviction from our technical analysis. It is our position that SPX price action will reject at or around the 4217 line (+3SD) within the next week or so. At this point the SPX should begin to take its 5th and final leg of the Elliot Wave Cycle down to the 3652-3311 price range as illustrated on the chart directly above. Buckle up, be agile and stay liquid! (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
SP:SPXShort
by Firewalker_Charts
DOLLAR (DXY): Things could get ugly next weekIt's all on the charts. The Dollar does not like trenches. Zoom into chart for a better view. This is a probabilistic estimate for a 51% chance movement north. That means there is a 49% chance of no direction north. Prediction this is not (because predictions are 100% for occurrence). What this means is that the probability north should be factored into all instruments that are linked to the DXY strength. Equities indices for example have been profiteering from a relatively weak dollar. It is of course possible that both equities and dollar strength head south. Possible but not likely. If that happens it will be a whole new era. Stay safe. Don't burn cash. May the force be with you! 😁😄
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
2
S&P500 melt up - has the seasonal rally just kicked into gear?Top-level view - Long and strong for 4200, cutting on a 3- & 8-day EMA crossover On the day we see the US500 cash closing +1.4% and above 4000, taking the bear market rally to 14.6% from the 13 Oct low. All sectors rallied with energy the best performer gaining 3.2% - breadth was broad at a stock level and we see 89% of stocks in the index closing higher – hard to paint a more bullish picture. Not sure we can fault the intra-day tape either - it was an out and out trend day and as soon as price smashed through VWAP in European trade, retested and found buyers, it was all uphill with a solid melt-up into the close. Of course, we have a World Cup underway, and a bunch of traders took time out here, where we see S&P500 futures volume an anemic 1.1m contracts, while cash volumes were 26% below the 30-day average. As anyone who was long and held through US trade would attest – you can still make money in a low-volume environment. Has the rally got legs? One prominent strategist who has called the US500 well throughout 2022 is Mike Wilson (of Morgan Stanley) who has pulled out his playbook, calling for the US500 to rally to 4100-4300 by year-end – however, once we get past the turn his call is that the index retreats to a range of 3300 to 3000 by end Q1, before staging a solid rally into the end-2023. It's not often we see such definition from a sell-side strategist and it's gutsy – his logic is sound but what the market does is another thing. The technicals favour further upside If we look at the setup of the US500 on the daily a long bias is certainly the favoured position. Naturally if the flow and structure change and become more bearish, we do something about it quickly – as traders we react to signal, or it costs. Importantly, we’ve seen price break out of the bull flag, which if we take the move from the 3 Nov low targets 4280. We have the 200-day MA lurking at 4050, and while we saw price reject this average in April and mid-August, a bullish break here could see further longs being added – certainly, the systematic trend traders would be adding to a modestly long position, and this could propel the index into trend resistance. Consider the idea of FOMO and FOMU (fear of meaningfully underperforming) – the S&P500 is -16% and if youre an active money manager and benchmark to the index and the index is going up then you simply have to put cash to work and chase – or you risk underperforming and not getting paid. We know there is a ton of cash on the sidelines. A VIX testing 20% is also a bullish sign for risk. A stop that keeps you in the trade - If we use a simple 3 and 8-day EMA crossover stop, then longs are still in play, and this can keep you in the trade and remove the emotion of taking profits in a strong trending environment. So, one to watch – while volumes are low and we eye huge data in December, the melt-up in equities is starting to take shape
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
2
What is really up with the Funded Programs?Before we go any further, I want to state that 1) This post is NOT PROMOTING ANY prop firms/funded trader programs, 2) I do not hate or have anything against any prop firms/funded trader programs, I am just sharing my understanding from what I have read and experienced, and 3) Info here is not complete. If you choose to embark on any programs, please make sure you do your own due diligence. Traditional Prop Firm Typically refers to a group of traders that focus on buying and selling financial assets with the firm’s capital. The trader uses that firm's money to trade and in exchange receives a small wage and a large percentage of the profits. In practice, proprietary trading firms provide the capital, proprietary technology, training, coaching, and mentoring for you to become an elite trader. Funded Programs There has been an ever-increasing number of funded trader programs, marketing to retail traders about the huge profit-sharing potential (75-90%) when they become "a funded trader." And all that is required is paying for and passing an evaluation/testing period. You would pay anywhere from $84 to $184 for a $10,000 account and it could go as high as you want (almost) A trader in the evaluation/testing period would have - Profit target of 8-10% in phase 1 (typically 30 days) - Profit target of 5% in phase 2 (typically 60 days) - Daily drawdown of no more than 5% - Overall drawdown of no more than 10-12% From my experience coaching retail traders, newbie or average trader has an account size of no more than $10,000. This makes the idea of being funded to trade become really attractive, limiting the downside while almost maximizing the potential. However, there has also been a lot of negativity about these funded programs; - the evaluation and actual trading accounts are demo accounts - the company makes more money from traders failing than from profitable traders - some traders claim to have never received their payouts Are funded programs scams? Again, I have not evaluated ALL funded programs to say this, but probably not. (Do your own due diligence!) Companies running funded programs are likely just deploying a good business model, addressing a pain that most retail traders have (funding their account) and filling that gap. Should you jump into a funded program? There is a lot more information (more than discussed above) that needs to be considered before you jump in. A brief checklist: 1) Do you have a profitable trading strategy to deploy? ( if you don't have a profitable strategy, keep reading, learning & testing ) 2) Have you used it for at least a year? ( avoid using funded programs as a testing ground, it can get costly! do it on a demo or even a $1,000 account first ) 3) Does the strategy meet the max drawdown conditions? ( 5% a day, 10% total? For example, a martingale strategy is not likely to work ) 4) How likely are you to bend your trading rules? ( rules set by the programs are set in stone, a breach even by the slightest and you would have failed ) 5) Is it the right time to start? ( are markets in consolidation, on a holiday period, or super volatile with no clear trend ) Remember that the average annualized return of the S&P500 is 11.88% (1957 to 2021). Trying to make 8-10% in 30 days and then 5% in 60 days just to pass, tends to put the trader under a lot of stress. How do you perform under significant pressure? What are your views of the funded programs? Share it with me in the comments I have never thought much about the funded programs. But recently have been considering giving it a shot and live-streaming the trading process daily. Would you join me on the stream? Stay tuned, it might just happen.
SP:SPXEducation
by JinDao_Tai
2
DXY looks ready to breakoutAfter the negative CPI numbers for US dollar index, investors and retail have turned officially bullish on equities after inflation peaked, DXY dropped vertically and gave gains to stock market closing the week green. Now, price looks over sold and the formed pattern is very bullish ( ascending triangle), a breakout will drive price to 109.6 as a first target. This DXY analysis will help us avoid some wrong buy/sell signals unless we see a clear move to the up/down side.
TVC:DXYLong
by dogofwallstreets
4
DBS rallies ahead of tomorrow's earnings reportThe stock has been performing well ahead of its earnings reports, thanks to the news that DBS will be the bank to utilise MaxxDigital – a digital asset platform that provides risk and FX solutions for institutions. Whilst Singapore’s regulators continue to clamp down on crypto trading for retailers, Singapore wants to become a digital-asset hub within the financial sector – and this could be the first step of many which help them do just that. DBS rose 3.6% on Friday following the announcement and has extended those gains to around 6% at the time of writing from Friday’s low. According to Reuters, 13 analysts recommend DBS stock for a ‘buy’ (4 of which are a strong buy) with 4 holds and no sell recommendations. The stock currently trades at 34.58 and has a median price target of 39.11 (+13%). DBS Daily Chart: The daily chart shows that DBS performed a strong breakout (with high volume) from its sideways range after prices found support at the 200-day and 50-day EMA’s. And that suggests it could be part of the bullish trend from the July low. However, there are a couple of warning signs that it may need to retrace a little before continuing higher. A bearish pinbar formed on Monday with low volume, and yesterday’s price action struggling to convincingly push higher. Gap resistance, $35 and the monthly R1 pivot point are nearby and RSI (2) is overbought - which can indicate a near-term turning point. With that said, the RSI(14) is over 50 and trending higher with prices, which is another reason we suspect any move lower is part of a retracement before prices head for the high around 36.30. Of course, earnings can be full of surprises and we may need to see DBS beat estimates for it to trade directly higher. Otherwise – assuming earnings is not too disappointing – it could help with a desired pullback, where we would seek bullish setups around the monthly pivot / prior breakout range.
SGX:D05Long
by CityIndex
Stocks Face Resistance at HighsStocks are still contending with relative highs. The S&P 500 has been wavering between highs at 4009 and 3963 or so. The strong buying spike from CPI last Thursday has leveled off in a sickle pattern. From here, we will see if stocks continue to range or if they retrace. The Kovach OBV is still bullish, but does appear to be losing steam. We could be forming a bull consolidation in pattern in preparation for another breakout. If so, 4068 is the next target. If we retrace, we should see support from 3963 or 3937.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Pre-Pandemic Level Untapped!!All markets are targeting the levels they were trading at right before the PANDEMIC CRASH! Keep in mind these were the natural levels that were unaffected by the massive supply of funds that were injected into the economy. It only makes sense that we reach those levels again for an official reset. BLUE LINE! Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
SP:SPXShort
by rnaofs
1
Cooling Inflation Sends Stocks SoaringThe S&P 500 has rocketed after October's data suggests that inflation is weakening. CPI came in at 7.7% against an expected 7.9%. The markets are looking for any excuse to anticipate a weaker Fed policy, and a tapering in rate hike trajectory. Yields have fallen dramatically and risk on assets are flying. The S&P 500 blasted off from 3749, through our relative high at 3848. We still have some room to go before 3909 but that is the next target. It might be the case that stocks equilibrate around these higher levels as the data gets priced in. If we retrace, expect support at 3825.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Stocks Showing Signs of WeaknessStocks have edged higher, but appear to be leveling off. Election uncertainty will be lifted as results of the 2022 midterms keeps pouring in. The markets are not as concerned in election results as most think, but we may see a small rally now that they're over. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, which could suggest that stocks will hold their course. We have seen a very weak rally with the S&P 500 inching gains for the past week. The price action appears to be rounding off, which could suggest a selloff soon. Additionally, more warnings of a global recession keep pouring in, so it is difficult to imagine this wave of euphoria can sustain. If we fall, we should have support at 3758 or 3714. If we rally, we must break 3909 before considering higher prices.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy