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Eurostoxx Ultimate Pivot PointsReading charts is just one part of trading a bear market, another highly significant part is a solid understanding of market psychology, heuristics and biases. Having spent 14 years in a QE fuelled bull market where there were few inexplicable events and certainly no major forced liquidation events, it is easy to understand why so many participants get so excited about two days of asset flows out of commodities and into tech names. Yes, the market can go higher from here, yes it can go lower, but calling a major bottom and repeatedly getting attached to these short squeezes is all part of the psychological conditioning that has been happening to many over the last 14 years. Therefore we would suggest waiting for extremes where there is nobody else left to buy or sell, this is where the odds are stacked firmly in one's favour. Patience. Discipline. And more patience.
TVC:SX5E
by Newcomb_Analytics
How Will Stocks Begin July?Stocks have begun July with a whimper so far, maintaining a very narrow range after selling off from the 3900's. We have found support in the mid 3700's, but appear to be forming a bear flag pattern. Volatility has consolidated which may portend a breakout. If so, we could make a run for the 3900's again, with 3825 and 3937 likely targets to the upside. If we sell off from here, then 3645 is a likely floor. The Kovach OBV has started to uptick slightly, which could indicate a bull divergence.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * Core PCE Price Index came out today (at 830am not 1230pm like I had incorrectly posted in previous TA's) and was lower than forecasted at 4.7% vs 4.8% and .2% lower than last month's reading (4.9%), this is reflective of the Fed conducting QT + rate hikes and all but confirms that the Fed will raise another 75bps on July 27th. CPI is due to be reported at 830am (EST) on 07/13 and will provide additional guidance to markets regarding how effective the Fed's tightening and hawkishness is and whether they need to be more or less aggressive heading into the end of the year. Aside from a few stocks, everything is down; Gold, USD, energy, crypto, equities and treasuries are all down. Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman (and former President) Dmitry Medvedev today reiterated that increased Western sanctions against Russia can qualify as international acts of aggression that can justify war . NATO is continuing to expand with the addition of Finland and Sweden and have agreed to modernized Ukraine's military + bolster NATO presence on the Eastern Flank. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated today that a new Iron Curtain is currently being built and that Russia vows to remove dependence on the EU in all critical sectors . It has become quite apparent that this NWO is here to stay but not quite as clear as to whether or not it will prompt WW3. While all this is going on, China vows to "smash to smithereens" any Taiwanese efforts to gain independence and has reiterated their warning for any collusion with the US . China also continues to aggressively assert ownership of the South China Sea which is home to $3 trillion of trade transit yearly (and shared by Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore) and East China Sea which is home to numerous natural gas fields (and shared by Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan). Though it seems that markets have priced in a continuation of QT and rate hikes, there are numerous bearish catalysts lurking in the background that make the market sentiment lean bearish at the moment.* Price is currently trending down at $3800 after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3950) as resistance. Volume is currently Low and on track to break a three day streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3670, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43, the next support is at 38. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 65 after being rejected by 76 resistance, the next support is at 48. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -67 as it attempts to reestablish support at -76 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 23 as Price begins to fall again, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX starts trending up as Price continues down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3950 . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially going lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3900.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Stocks Press LowerStocks pressed lower as we anticipated yesterday. The S&P 500 was hanging on by a thread yesterday at 3825, and sure enough, support caved, and we were able to test lower levels. We crossed a vacuum zone to find support at 3758. We currently appear to be finding support there, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If support does not hold here, we anticipate 3658 or 3645 to hold as a floor. If we are able to rally, then watch for resistance at 3825, with 3937 a likely ceiling.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
GDP to Weigh on StocksStocks took a dive from the high 3900's. We identified 3909 as a likely target in the previous report, and a brief rally was able to hit this target and then some, coming just shy of the 4000 handle, and retracing just shy of a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from the 4000's back in early June. We have since retreated to support at 3825, which is a relative high and strong technical level from a relative high on June 15th. We appear to be hanging on by a thread and the Kovach OBV has slumped. If momentum does not pick up, then we could test lows at 3645. US first quarter GDP came out contractionary , and the second quarter is not looking much better. Recall that two quarters of shrinking GDP is what many use as the definition of a recession.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily TA neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. *Equities, crypto, USD, gold all are getting off to a rough start this session while treasuries and energy started the week off with a boost. Global inflation numbers are continuing to print higher, Russia defaulted on their foreign debt for the first time since 1918 because many developed countries are not accepting the Russian Ruble, NATO is increasing military high-ready support forces for Ukraine to 300k , and 3AC has defaulted on a $670m loan from Voyager Digital . Key dates this week: 3rd Q1 GDP estimate due 830am (EST) on 06/29 and Core PCE Price Index report due at 12:30 (EST) on 06/30 .* Price is currently testing $3938 minor resistance which coincides with the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021. Volume is currently Moderate (low) and on track to break a five day streak of buyers dominance if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3637, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 48 as Price is encountering a critical resistance at this level; the next RSI resistance is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 68 (after blowing past 48.08 resistance) as it approaches a test of 76.29 resistance. MACD remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing -76.22 resistance, if it breaks above this level then the next resistance is at -43.84. ADX is currently trending down at 24 as Price continues pushing up, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break above $3938 minor resistance and reclaim support at the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3960), then it will likely retest $4175 resistance. However, if Price is rejected here at this critical resistance, it will likely retest $3706.52 minor support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3800.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Stocks Testing Relative HighsThe S&P 500 has steadily risen, though this rally looks very weak. We have gredually made higher highs, and are currently encroaching upon a relative high at 3825. The Kovach OBV appears quite bullish, which could indicate there is more in the tank for stocks. If we are able to breakout further, we could solidify the mid 3800's, with 3909 a likely ceiling. Since we are at relative highs, watch for momentum at open. If it is insufficient to break through current levels, then a retracement is likely with 3758 a likely support level and 3645 a likely floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash. *The US Dollar (and treasuries and bonds), energy and commodities take a tumble as equities and crypto get a boost from a lower PMI and a successful Federal Reserve bank Stress Test with hopes that inflation can start to slow down before the Core PCE report due on 06/30/22. All things considered, this is still just a technical relief rally (with just a bit of room to run) until it crosses certain levels in a sustained fashion.* Price is currently trending up at $3795 as it aims to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. Volume remains moderate and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now, indicating that there is significant support at $3706. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3938 minor resistance, this is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 41 after testing 38.06 support and bouncing, this reconfirms that the uptrend line from 01/27/22 is still intact; the next resistance is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 37 as it is currently breaking above 18.32 resistance; the next resistance is at 48.08. MACD is currently trending up slightly at -100 as it looks to complete a trough and break above -86.76 to form a bullish crossover; the next resistance (minor) is at -76.22. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 and forming a soft peak as Price continues to push upward, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX can begin trending down as Price continues up then it would be bullish. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3938 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3706.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
S&P 500 Breakout??The S&P 500 has continued to range establishing an upper bound at 3792, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have been edging up with higher lows, and volatility has consolidated suggesting we are gearing up for a breakout. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish, suggesting a bullish divergence and possible bull breakout. If so, we must clear 3825 before attempting higher levels. The level 3792 is providing strong resistance and if we fail to break it at open we are likely to reject it in which case 3694 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% SPX, 49% Cash. *Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee today and to no one's surprise reiterated the Fed's 'reaction function' (comprised of quantitative tightening and a higher federal funds rate (FFR)) working like it's supposed to. He mentioned that the market reacted appropriately by pricing in future rate hikes and repeated that the Fed will continue to move expeditiously (go beyond neutral) to bring Core PCE inflation down from ~5% to their target of 2%; according to Powell beyond neutral is beyond 2.5% FFR, the current FFR target rate is 1.5%-1.75%. With direct endorsement from Powell, the crypto and equity markets are correct in thinking FFR will be at or above 3.5% EOY (75bp July to 2.5%, 50-75bp September to 3%-3.25%, 25-50bp October to 3.25%-3.75%, 25-50bp to 3.5%-4.00%); obviously certain events can expedite or delay this but it seems like markets are beginning to price in the reality of a recession. It is important to remember that by the time the economy recognizes that it is in a recession, financial markets will already be pricing in the road to recovery. In other words, the economy is usually last to feel a recession. That said, it's still to premature to call a bottom (Jim Cramer hasn't told us to sell everything yet) but we could perhaps be in store for a short term rally. PMI report will be released tomorrow at 945am (EST) and Core PCE Inflation report will be released 06/30 at 830am (EST).* Price is currently trending sideways at $3759 after closing above $3706.52 minor support for a second consecutive session. Volume remained Moderate and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3983, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 38.06 resistance as it attempts to flip it to support. Stochastic remained bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -105 as it continues to form a trough; it would need to break above -81 in order to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price continues to decide whether to bounce here at $3706.52 minor support or go down lower, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue up from here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508.14 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Buffet Indicator insightsDespite the recent downturn in the equity market, the Total Market Cap over GDP - also known as Buffet Indicator - clearly shows that there still might be a significant market crash ahead. Assuming the market will reach the " Fairly valued " territory, it means that a further 25% decline is to be expected. Assuming instead that the market will ultimately become " Significantly Undervalued " - as it happened after both most recent market crashes (except after COVID due to the massive Fed intervention) - we should expect a further 50% decline.
FRED:WILL5000PRFC
by a.b
Stocks Dump on Recession FearsStocks have taken a dive, off renewed recession fears. We anticipated resistance at highs, and if you recall from yesterday, we surmised that if momentum was insufficient to break the relative highs at the time, a dump was likely. That is exactly what happened. We were barely able to peak above 3758, but failed to test the next level at 3792. Subsequently, we slid back to 3694, where we are currently seeing some support. We could see a further selloff to lows, however, it is likely that stocks will range between 3645 and 3792.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. *Though we still need one more close above $3706 to confirm a short term bullish reversal, key support lines for other indicators are currently holding up and therefore lending a bullish bias to PA in the short term. JPow is scheduled to testify before Congress tomorrow at 9:30am (EST) and everyone will be listening for any hints of slowing down rate hikes or QT to further boost markets. PMI is scheduled to be released at 9:45am (EST) on 06/23 , if it comes in lower than last month's prepare for another drawdown.* Price is currently bouncing off of $3706.52 minor support as a technical relief rally is underway. Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4017, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 39 and is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off of both uptrend lines from 01/27/22 and August 2015 (at 31) indicating that both uptrends are intact in the short term. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish and is trending up at 10.82 as it prepares to test 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a trough at -105 as it is still technically testing -76.22 minor support; it would need to break above -76.22 minor support to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price is either in a correction or reversal, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to trend down as Price continues up then it would be a bit bullish, but if ADX continues up as Price retreats it would be bearish. If Price is able to continue up here then the next likely target is a test of the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900. However, if Price falls back down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Can Stocks Breakout??The S&P 500 has gradually trended up, suffering from low liquidity and thin trading from the holiday yesterday. We are encroaching upon the lows of the value area from last week. The small uptrend appears weak, and if we don't see momentum come through at the open, then we will surely dump to lower levels, with 3676, 3658 or 3645 likely targets. If we are able to break out then 3825 is the next target. The Kovach OBV is trending bullishly, but make sure momentum is confirmed at open before entering a long position.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Gearing Up for a Rally??Stocks appear to have bottomed for now, forming a bull wedge consolidation pattern at lows. The level 3624 appears to be a hard lower bound for now. We are due for a relief rally, as stocks are broadly oversold. If so, 3825 is a likely ceiling, as it is a relative high from last week. However, the value area between 3714 and 3792 seems a reasonable target if we are able to break out. If things turn south, then 3624 should provide support, but if not, we are clear to test the lows of the 3600 handle.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
When Will Stocks Bottom?The S&P 500 dipped further, breaking through to the high 3600's, before a brief retracement attempted to reestablish the 3700's. At the time of this writing, we are currently wavering at 3700 exactly. The Kovach OBV is flattening out suggesting that we will not see much more action until momentum comes through. It is likely we will range at some point to establish value in this new price territory. We expect stocks to hold their ground between 3644 and 3737. As we mentioned yesterday, 3823 is a likely ceiling and 3624 the floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash. *Gains from yesterday's FOMC announcement about a 75 bp rate hike were all but given back today in what was an apparent Bull Trap. With June's PMI report coming 06/23 and July's CPI report coming 07/13, it's hard to imagine that the inflation situation is going to get better when SNB just raised their policy rate for the first time since 2007 , the BOE sees domestic inflation hitting 11% in October and still only raised their bank rate by 25 bp (albeit for a fifth consecutive time the BOE bank rate sits at only 1.25%) today, the ECB has somehow managed to keep their bank rate at -0.50 amidst all of this (it has remained unchanged since 2019) and will meet 07/21 to announce a planned 25 bp bank rate increase, and the BOJ is set to announce (in approx 5 hours) whether or not they will slow down QE and begin hiking their policy rates too . All that said, a global recession is very much so on the table and it currently seems as if that's what it will take for equity and crypto markets to bottom (financial markets usually rise and fall before the economy does due to their futures dependency).* Price is currently trending down at $3666 and is still technically testing $3706 support. Volume remains Moderate (High) and after favoring sellers in today's session has no favored sellers in eight of the past ten sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4105, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22, as well as the uptrend line from August 2015, at ~30. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 6.50 but is trending down slightly and may regress to a bearish crossover in tomorrow's session if it cannot find buying momentum; the next resistance is at 18.32 and support at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at 95 with no signs of trough formation as it is quickly breaking away from -76.22 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able bounce here at $3706 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3706.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% SPX, 95% Cash. *European and Japanese central banks don't seem to be in a hurry to raise interest rates, Russia is even lowering them, while the US is on track to raise the FFR by at least 50bp (high likelihood of 75bp) this coming Wednesday. "Transitory inflation" (supported by hawkish Fed) became stagflation, which led to a more dovish Fed hoping for a late soft landing, which led to a stronger dollar/simultaneous bear market/and still growing inflation, which led to now needing to consider a hard landing by going "beyond neutral" with regards to FFR in order to ring in inflation. It's tough to say at the moment but it seems as if 50bp is now seen as too little by markets and that 75bp may actually be a bullish catalyst (markets want inflation to come down so that the Fed can ease up on monetary policy).* Price has broken down out of the descending channel from August 2021 and is currently trending down at $3750 as it fast approaches a test of $3706 minor support for the first time since January 2021. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers for four consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4175 resistance, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently retesting both the uptrend line from August 2015 and the uptrend line from 01/26/22 at ~31 as support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 18.32 support. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at -51 while still technically testing uptrend line from March 2020 at -43.84 as support. ADX is currently trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish; if ADX can maintain this correlation with Price above 25 it would be very bearish. If Price is able to bounce here (or formally at $3706 minor support) then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~3900 as resistance. However, if Price continues down past $3706 minor support, it will likely test $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
The FOMC Didn't Help StocksThe FOMC event did little to appease the stock market yesterday. To combat inflation at 40 year highs, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the largest hike since 1994 . This was largely priced in and we saw a brief relief rally in equities, which was quickly faded, and we have since broken support to establish new relative lows. The level 3714 was our last technical level in the 3700 handle, and we have now broken into the 3600's, finding support at 3694. We are currently seeing a smaall pivot off of this level, and support is confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 3700's, but if we can sustain momentum, then 3823 is a likely ceiling. If we sell off further, 3624 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA BearishSPX/USD Daily bearish. *Inflation produced a higher high (.60% increase in CPI growth from April-May compared to March-April) at .83% FFR which essentially means that the Fed will probably consider ramping up rate increases by more than 50bp (75bp likely) in their meeting next week (06/14-06/15) to stay true to their "do whatever it takes to ring in inflation" promise. This is bearish for equities and cryptos as we will likely start to see more significant layoffs in corporations and less liquidity in capital markets.* Recommended ratio: 5% SPX, 95% Cash. Price is currently forming a Bearish Engulfing pattern as it trends down at 3900; it is still technically retesting $3938 minor support after breaking down below the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3981. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers for three consecutive sessions (and seven of the last ten sessions). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4175 resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down and retesting 38.06 support; if it breaks below this level then it will likely retest both the uptrend line from August 2015 and the uptrend line from 01/26/22 at ~31. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 40, the next support is at 18.32. MACD remains bullish and is currently on the verge of a bearish crossover as it trends down at -32; it would complete the crossover if it falls below -34. ADX formed a trough at 17 and is currently trending up at 19 as Price breaks down, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend $3938 minor support then it will have to recapture the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2020 at $3981 if it is to resist a steeper downfall. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3706.52 minor support for the first time since January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3981.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2