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SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. *Though we still need one more close above $3706 to confirm a short term bullish reversal, key support lines for other indicators are currently holding up and therefore lending a bullish bias to PA in the short term. JPow is scheduled to testify before Congress tomorrow at 9:30am (EST) and everyone will be listening for any hints of slowing down rate hikes or QT to further boost markets. PMI is scheduled to be released at 9:45am (EST) on 06/23 , if it comes in lower than last month's prepare for another drawdown.* Price is currently bouncing off of $3706.52 minor support as a technical relief rally is underway. Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4017, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 39 and is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off of both uptrend lines from 01/27/22 and August 2015 (at 31) indicating that both uptrends are intact in the short term. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish and is trending up at 10.82 as it prepares to test 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a trough at -105 as it is still technically testing -76.22 minor support; it would need to break above -76.22 minor support to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price is either in a correction or reversal, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to trend down as Price continues up then it would be a bit bullish, but if ADX continues up as Price retreats it would be bearish. If Price is able to continue up here then the next likely target is a test of the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900. However, if Price falls back down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Can Stocks Breakout??The S&P 500 has gradually trended up, suffering from low liquidity and thin trading from the holiday yesterday. We are encroaching upon the lows of the value area from last week. The small uptrend appears weak, and if we don't see momentum come through at the open, then we will surely dump to lower levels, with 3676, 3658 or 3645 likely targets. If we are able to break out then 3825 is the next target. The Kovach OBV is trending bullishly, but make sure momentum is confirmed at open before entering a long position.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Gearing Up for a Rally??Stocks appear to have bottomed for now, forming a bull wedge consolidation pattern at lows. The level 3624 appears to be a hard lower bound for now. We are due for a relief rally, as stocks are broadly oversold. If so, 3825 is a likely ceiling, as it is a relative high from last week. However, the value area between 3714 and 3792 seems a reasonable target if we are able to break out. If things turn south, then 3624 should provide support, but if not, we are clear to test the lows of the 3600 handle.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
When Will Stocks Bottom?The S&P 500 dipped further, breaking through to the high 3600's, before a brief retracement attempted to reestablish the 3700's. At the time of this writing, we are currently wavering at 3700 exactly. The Kovach OBV is flattening out suggesting that we will not see much more action until momentum comes through. It is likely we will range at some point to establish value in this new price territory. We expect stocks to hold their ground between 3644 and 3737. As we mentioned yesterday, 3823 is a likely ceiling and 3624 the floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash. *Gains from yesterday's FOMC announcement about a 75 bp rate hike were all but given back today in what was an apparent Bull Trap. With June's PMI report coming 06/23 and July's CPI report coming 07/13, it's hard to imagine that the inflation situation is going to get better when SNB just raised their policy rate for the first time since 2007 , the BOE sees domestic inflation hitting 11% in October and still only raised their bank rate by 25 bp (albeit for a fifth consecutive time the BOE bank rate sits at only 1.25%) today, the ECB has somehow managed to keep their bank rate at -0.50 amidst all of this (it has remained unchanged since 2019) and will meet 07/21 to announce a planned 25 bp bank rate increase, and the BOJ is set to announce (in approx 5 hours) whether or not they will slow down QE and begin hiking their policy rates too . All that said, a global recession is very much so on the table and it currently seems as if that's what it will take for equity and crypto markets to bottom (financial markets usually rise and fall before the economy does due to their futures dependency).* Price is currently trending down at $3666 and is still technically testing $3706 support. Volume remains Moderate (High) and after favoring sellers in today's session has no favored sellers in eight of the past ten sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4105, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22, as well as the uptrend line from August 2015, at ~30. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 6.50 but is trending down slightly and may regress to a bearish crossover in tomorrow's session if it cannot find buying momentum; the next resistance is at 18.32 and support at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at 95 with no signs of trough formation as it is quickly breaking away from -76.22 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able bounce here at $3706 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3706.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% SPX, 95% Cash. *European and Japanese central banks don't seem to be in a hurry to raise interest rates, Russia is even lowering them, while the US is on track to raise the FFR by at least 50bp (high likelihood of 75bp) this coming Wednesday. "Transitory inflation" (supported by hawkish Fed) became stagflation, which led to a more dovish Fed hoping for a late soft landing, which led to a stronger dollar/simultaneous bear market/and still growing inflation, which led to now needing to consider a hard landing by going "beyond neutral" with regards to FFR in order to ring in inflation. It's tough to say at the moment but it seems as if 50bp is now seen as too little by markets and that 75bp may actually be a bullish catalyst (markets want inflation to come down so that the Fed can ease up on monetary policy).* Price has broken down out of the descending channel from August 2021 and is currently trending down at $3750 as it fast approaches a test of $3706 minor support for the first time since January 2021. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers for four consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4175 resistance, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently retesting both the uptrend line from August 2015 and the uptrend line from 01/26/22 at ~31 as support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 18.32 support. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at -51 while still technically testing uptrend line from March 2020 at -43.84 as support. ADX is currently trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish; if ADX can maintain this correlation with Price above 25 it would be very bearish. If Price is able to bounce here (or formally at $3706 minor support) then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~3900 as resistance. However, if Price continues down past $3706 minor support, it will likely test $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
The FOMC Didn't Help StocksThe FOMC event did little to appease the stock market yesterday. To combat inflation at 40 year highs, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the largest hike since 1994 . This was largely priced in and we saw a brief relief rally in equities, which was quickly faded, and we have since broken support to establish new relative lows. The level 3714 was our last technical level in the 3700 handle, and we have now broken into the 3600's, finding support at 3694. We are currently seeing a smaall pivot off of this level, and support is confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 3700's, but if we can sustain momentum, then 3823 is a likely ceiling. If we sell off further, 3624 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX Daily TA BearishSPX/USD Daily bearish. *Inflation produced a higher high (.60% increase in CPI growth from April-May compared to March-April) at .83% FFR which essentially means that the Fed will probably consider ramping up rate increases by more than 50bp (75bp likely) in their meeting next week (06/14-06/15) to stay true to their "do whatever it takes to ring in inflation" promise. This is bearish for equities and cryptos as we will likely start to see more significant layoffs in corporations and less liquidity in capital markets.* Recommended ratio: 5% SPX, 95% Cash. Price is currently forming a Bearish Engulfing pattern as it trends down at 3900; it is still technically retesting $3938 minor support after breaking down below the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3981. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers for three consecutive sessions (and seven of the last ten sessions). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4175 resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down and retesting 38.06 support; if it breaks below this level then it will likely retest both the uptrend line from August 2015 and the uptrend line from 01/26/22 at ~31. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 40, the next support is at 18.32. MACD remains bullish and is currently on the verge of a bearish crossover as it trends down at -32; it would complete the crossover if it falls below -34. ADX formed a trough at 17 and is currently trending up at 19 as Price breaks down, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend $3938 minor support then it will have to recapture the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2020 at $3981 if it is to resist a steeper downfall. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3706.52 minor support for the first time since January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3981.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
Stocks Finally Break DownStocks have finally broken out of the range they have been holding since the end of May. The S&P 500 has remained confined between 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern, and 4214. The neckline of the inverse H&S is a strong technical level and the fact that we have broken down past it is not a good sign for stocks. We found support below after crossing the vacuum zone to 4009. This is the last technical level of the 4K's. After that, we have 3978. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but it is likely that we will range for now, establishing value at current levels. If we are able to rally, 4068 should provide strong resistance, and should be considered a price target for tnose looking to trade the range.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Will Stocks Breakout Soon??Volatility in stocks has continued to consolidate, and we are broadly forming a pennant pattern. We are seeing consistently lower higs, starting from 4214, which is the level we must break before attempting higher levels. The neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern at 4068, seems to be providing good support, and lows have recently tended just above this level. The Kovach OBV is still fairly flat, so we will need a lot more momentum to properly break out. We must break through 4214 before we can consider higher levels and hit our next target of 4306. If 4068 fails to provide support then 4009 is our next level of support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
S&P 500 Consolidates the Range SlightlyThe S&P 500 has continued the range between 4068 and 4214 or so. The upper bound of this range seems to be waning, with lower highs possibly suggesting we may be forming a bear wedge or flag. Either way, volatility does seem to be consolidating slightly, which in the long run portends a breakout. The Kovach OBV is drifting up, which may signify a bull divergence, potentially giving bulls some hope. Keep in mind there is a vacuum zone below 4068, which is the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed early May. If we break this, we are clear to test the lows of the 4000 handle again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
AAPL/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishAAPL/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *AAPL has just experienced a Death Cross (50 MA below 200 MA). Equities and crypto are both down again, as fears of a recession are currently being amplified by low unemployment + low growth + inflation and a very hawkish (and fashionably late) Fed.* Recommended ratio: 25% AAPL, 75% Cash. Price is currently trending down after being rejected by $149 minor resistance; the next support is at $138.46. Volume remains moderate and has favored sellers in three of the past four sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $135.74, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 45.39; the next support is at 35.61 and the next resistance at 57.58. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 88, the next support is at 70.77. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -3 as it is beginning to form a soft peak just below -2.36 resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 20 and is beginning to form a trough as Price is falling down after a resistance rejection; this is neutral but can switch to bearish if it can confirm a trough formation accompanied by continued Price depreciation. If Price is able to bounce here, it will likely retest $149.05 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down then it will likely retest $138.46 support (which may coincide with the lower trendline of the Ascending Channel from January 2019). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $149.05.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by dailytaguy
Stocks Test Relative HighsStocks caught a strong pivot off of our relative low. The relative low of 4068 is significant because it coincides with the neckline of the failed inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from last week. We saw strong support from this level as confirmed by a double bottom with two green triangles on the KRI. We are not quite ready to call a bottom for stocks and a subsequent bull rally, but the fact that 4068 is holding is encouraging. We noted yesterday that our target for stocks was 4219, which we anticipated to hold as a ceiling for now. Sure enough, stocks are testing highs, falling just shy of our target at 4188. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but not enough to suggest there is much more in the tank. But if we are able to break 4219, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support?Stocks have retraced, hitting our exact target of 4068 and finding support. Recall that this was the head of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed mid May. Failed inverse H&S patterns are usually bearish omens and stocks were in the doldrums for basically the rest of May. However toward the end of the month, we were able to break out, but 4068 remains a strong level. We were able to make a run for 4200, but met resistance and retraced. Currently we are ranging in the vacuum zone between 4068 and 4122. The S&P 500 may attempt to establish here. If we retrace further watch the vacuum zone below to 4009. The high just below 4214 should serve as a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Janet, Jerome and Joe all got together yesterday and it's fair to say they all agree they want more pain before more gain ("do anything it takes to bring down inflation"), and they want it mainly to be done through monetary policy (Fed). Fed also started rolling off TS and MBS today.* Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. Price is currently trending down at $4100 after being rejected by $4175 resistance on the first test. Volume remains moderate and is on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3869, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 50.24 after getting rejected on a retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 91. MACD is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 after breaking out above -76.22 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 23 as Price is attempting to continue rallying, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $4175 resistance before attempting to test the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4400. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel at $4000 before potentially falling lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Momentum Fades for StocksStocks appear to have topped out for now just under our level at 4214. We've since retraced, finding support at 4122, just above the vacuum zone to 4068. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI which confirm the support. It seems that stocks are ranging and establishing value between 4122 and 4178. Optimistically, we might be forming a bull flag pattern, however the Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through to break out of it. If so, we must break through 4214 before we can hit our next target of 4306. If support does not hold, watch the vacuum zone below to 4068.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Surge as China ReopensThe S&P 500 has broken out of the malaise it has held all of last week. China seems to be reopening which has investors breathing a sigh of relief. After the inverse head and shoulders breakdown, we saw tremendous resistance and stocks were in the doldrums, hovering in the 3800-3900 range with 4K a hard upper bound. The neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern provided strong resistance as we had predicted all of last week. Finally, we were able to break out from this level, smashing through our previous targets at 4122 and 4144, and reaching a new relative high just above 4200. We are starting to face resistance from a congestion zone from the end of April, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just below 4214. We are finding support at 4144, and should see continued support from 4122, but if not, we are set to cross the vacuum zone to 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern. The next target is 4306, a relative high from the very beginning of May.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
us500 SPX500 Long - Bitcoin Crypto Crash will pay for the pump Hi Traders, The more skilled traders have made money from shorting the Crypto markets. Where will the money go? The money flow shows its heading back into equities. Buy the US500 and target a new ATH while everyone is scared. the Bitcoin / crypto correlation to equities is breaking as well which is a huge alarm Please like my idea and follow me if you agree or like my ideas. Even post a simple comment, this will really help me continue.
SP:SPXLong
by TheBitcoinWizard
1