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Stocks MELT DOWN!! S&P 500 Breaks 4000!!Stocks broke down hard yesterday, as virtually all risk-on assets were sold-off. We smashed through 4122, 4068, and as we mentioned in the last reports, 4009 was the last level of the 4K's. This gave way, and we were able to test the high 3K's before finding support at 3978. We finally saw a small pivot from this level and have regained the 4K's, currently wavering in the vacuum zone between 4009 and 4068. The latter will provide resistance, then 4122 and 4144. It will take a sharp buyback to break all these levels and regain the 4200's. From below, 3978 should provide support, but after that, 3963, 3937, and 3928 are the next targets if it fails to hold.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
A Bearish Start to the Trading Week for Stocks 🐻📉Stocks sold off sharply at the beginning of the APAC session, which is not a good omen for the upcoming week. We are back at relative lows again at 4068 and appear to be looking to test lower. A small wick has broken through this level, and we are not seeing any hints of a buy-back from these lows. The Kovach OBV does appear to be diverging from the price, but it would be highly risky to catch this knife now. If we continue to fall, we have a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we do bounce from current levels, then 4122 and 4144 will provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
NASDAQ reaching end of Capitulation? Or only half way there?Every investor should ask themselves, are we in store for the usually 20-30% correction? Or are we in store for a market meltdown, similar to the Mortgage Backed Security collapse of 2007-2009? Or the Dot Com bubble during in 2001-2002? I have the most recent corrections in history highlighted, their reasons listed. > It is clear that the current situation and correction is more serious, than those in recent history. It has more drivers to the downside than the last 3 corrections. > It is also clear that the global economy isn't collapsing with like in 2008. In that recession, $10.2 Trillion alone was wiped from the American economy alone. That's not including the hit to Global Wealth, resulting in the elimination of many more Trillions. > It is further clear, current tech equities are not as overvalued as in the Dot Com bubble. I cannot deny that there has been an increasing number of Unicorns and IPOs entering the market. The majority of which have already had their values demolished. One only has to look at the recent SPACs, to see the smack these "Vision over Reality" companies have received from the market. >>> I believe we are more likely in a 20-30% correction, rather than a meltdown of 50-70%. Long term stocks go up.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
4
Stocks Cling to SupportAs we anticipated here, stocks could do little to break 4306, which provided prohibitive resistance. The S&P 500 swiftly rejected this level and retraced almost the entire move from the pivot from 4068. We did find support at 4122, a level which dedicated readers will recognize well, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. However, we seem to be seeing a bear flag type pattern forming at this level, and if support gives, then 4068 is the next target. Watch the vacuum zone down to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we somehow muster a rally, we must first break through 4306 before we can consider higher levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
What the FOMC Means for StocksStocks rallied despite a Fed hike of 0.5%, the largest hike since 2008. The economic conditions between that time period and now are similar, so keep that in mind for long term investing. We anticipated a rally yesterday, as the hike was fully priced in. Exactly as we predicted yesterday, the S&P 500 is seeing resistance from a relative high at 4306. The Kovach OBV has jumped with the rally, but is leveling off at current levels. We will see if we can muster the strength for another rally. If so, 4364 should provide resistance as it is a relative low. We should have support around 4188, roughly the midpoint of the current range, but if we fall further, we could test lows at 4122 or 4068 as an absolute min. Recall that if we break 4068, there is a vacuum zone to 4009, at the base of the 4K handle.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Stocks Await the FOMCAfter pivoting off new relative lows at 4068, stocks were able to maintain the 4180's. We are seeing strong resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have two levels at 4178 and 4188 that are proving difficult for stocks to break through. The stock market is clearly looking for guidance from the Fed at 14:30 EST, so we do not expect much action before then. There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets and this may provide much needed clarity. If we see a rally, then 4306 would be the target to the upside and should provide resistance. If we selloff again, then lows at 4068 should provide support. However, keep in mind there is a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the final technical level in the 4000's.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
New Lows for Stocks!! What's Next??As predicted yesterday, stocks dipped further, breaking support at 4122. We mentioned that this was a bad sign for stocks as there is a vacuum zone down to 4068. This is exactly the level the S&P 500 subsequently tested after breaking down. Luckily for our portfolios, we did see great support at 4068, but new lows is never a good sign. After testing 4068, we were then bought back up above 4144, but remain bounded by 4178. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish despite a small uptick from the pivot from 4068. It is reasonable to expect some ranging, but if the selloff continues we must break through support at 4068, then 4009 is the next target, and last technical level in the 4K's. If we are able to somehow breakout, we expect 4306 to be a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks on the Precipice of a MELTDOWNThe S&P 500 has broken down from 4144, establishing new relative lows. Recall that 4144 provided good support and we appeared to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4306. However, this was swiftly rejected, which is a very bearish sign for stocks. We've also broken through the 'head' of the inverse H&S at 4144, but appear to be finding support at 4122, which is the last major level of support before a potential freefall lower. There is a vacuum zone below 4122 to 4068, then another one after that to 4009. At that point, we will be at the base of the 4K handle and free to test the high 3K's. If we are able to pivot from here, 4306 will provide formidable resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
One Swing trading Equity Option -WIPRO WIPRO Sell below 579 SL 616 on weekly closing basis Target:- 554, 527, 450 So, we have to initiate a bull put spread - April Expiry 580 Put buy along with 550 Put sell If 550 is not achieved in the April expiry then one can again take this trade for next month's expiry provided the trade should be in profit. (For example:-u can initiate 560 Put buy along with 530 put sell if Wipro would trade at 560. u can initiate 540 Put buy along with 510 put sell if Wipro would trade at 540.) Disclaimer: -Views are for ‘’EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY’’ Trade at your own risk.
NSE:WIPROShort
by biplab86
5
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenitCrypto
S&P500 -> about to hit the fanThis is perhaps a little controversial, but my earlier observations are panning out, and worse than I had thought... Basically, the S&P500 since the beginning of 2022 has been struggling. Called previously, based on weekly chart, the S&P500 futures to target 4140. It had since done that a couple of times. Yesterday, it revisited, only to close below support on BOTH the weekly and monthly charts. This was a prompt to look at the bigger picture, as something appears amiss here... The monthly chart (right panel) shows that since 2008, the times taht the MACD crossed under the Signal line, the S&P500 returns to the 55EMA (orange line), and possibly below it (in 2008, 2011, 2020). In Feb 2022, the MACD crossed under the Signal line. And today, we stand about a 1/3 of the journey down to the monthly 55EMA. Using Fibonacci retracements, 3800 appears to be the next viable support, where the S&P500 meets and might bounce off the supporting 55EMA. This is another 8-10% down from today, and opens the possibility for further downside should it fail the 55EMA. 3500 being the next support. BEARISH... and the next weeks to months would be rather volatile to the downside.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
Stocks Face Resistance at our LevelAs we mentioned yesterday, stocks got good support from lower levels, but faced resistance at 4306. Recall that we highlighted this as the level to break for the S&P 500 to see higher levels. The KRI indicates that we are seeing strong resistance here. That being said, we could be in the midst of forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with 4306 as the neckline. Watch for stocks to dip lower and find support above 4144, at 4214 in particular. If we are able to break out then 4364 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Recover??The S&P 500 has gained support from lower levels, 4144 in particular. This seems to be a relative low for now, and we have called this level out multiple times here in these reports. We are currently seeing a bit of a pivot, after some volatility, however volume looks weak and the Kovach OBV remains unfazed by the bounce. Thus, we are skeptical of this small rally, but if it continues, 4306 is the level to break befoore considering higher levels. If the bear momentum continues, then 4144 should continue to provide support. If not, we expect 4122 to be a floor price. If this level breaks, we are likely to freefall.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Press LowerStocks have broken lower as the pivot from the initial selloff has failed. We tested relative lows briefly at 4214, before breaking lower to test 4144, which was the exact level we have been calling out this week. Support at 4144 held, and we are currently making a weak run for higher levels, though we seem to be having some issues with 4214 from below. The Kovach OBV is oscillatory near lows, suggesting we may be nearing a bottom. If we are able to break through 4214, we must first break through 4306 before considering higher levels. From below 4144 and 4122 should hold for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Try to Regain FootingStocks have found support around 4214, just a few levels above our anticipated floor of 4144 or 4122. We still have shed over 400 points in just three days, but we have seen a nice pivot from lows. There does appear to be volume behind the rally, as the Kovach OBV has picked up notably. However, we met immediate resistance at 4306, one level away from 4327 which we suggested as the first major level where we could anticipate resistance. From here, it is likely that stocks will range to establish value in this new territory, with 4144 and 4327 as lower and upper bounds respectively. If momentum continues off of this pivot and we break 4327, then 4364 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
How Low Can Stocks Go??Stocks plummeted as global recession fears mount. The strict lockdown in China has rippled through the markets, and additionlly PMI was a huge miss on Friday. We have smashed through our anticipated level of support at 4327, which we have been calling out for weeks now. We are currently finding support nearly 100 points below at 4228. We are seeing a green triangle form on the KRI to confirm support. The Kovach OBV has taken a nosedive, confirming the bear momentum. If the rout continues, then 4144 or 4122 are likely targets for support, and potential long positions. If we are able to muster the strength for a relief rally, then 4327 should provide resistance, then 4364.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
The S&P 500 Tanks, Will it Find Support??Stocks got hammered after testing resistance at 4504, just one level down from 4521, a relative high and the exact level that we predicted would provide resistance yesterday. We completely retraced the progress stocks have made from relative lows at 4364. The Kovach OBV has slumped, but does appear to be curving as we are finding support. If we are able to pivot off current levels, then 4521 remains our anticipated ceiling. If we are able to break down further, then 4327, a relative high, seems like a reasonable level to expect support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Edge UpStocks are edging up, currently testing 4487. We are seeing a red triangle on the KRI indicating some resistance here. If we are able to break through, then 4521 will be the next level where we anticipate resistance as it is a relative high. We anticipate 4580 as a ceiling for now, as this is yet another relative high. The rally looks weak and the Kovach OBV has barely budged. Thus a s selloff is highly probable. If we do see a selloff, then 4364 should hold as it is a relative low.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy