Get started

Equity

Stock Breakout Near??Stocks have recovered from a retracement after testing 4521. The price action started to 'round off' and we suspected a technical retracement may be in store earlier this week. Our prediction came true and we found support at 4440 also as anticipated. Currently, we are testing relative highs again at 4521, but are encountering steep resistance from red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been inching up but has leveled off slightly as stocks struggle to break out further. We are at some serious resistance, so watch for signs of momentum at open. If not, we will likely reject current levels and head to support at 4440. If we do see a breakout, then 4580 is our next major target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Retrace as Oil JumpsStocks have retraced as we have called out yesterday. We were due for a technical retracement, and the fact that oil prices jumped provided a catalyst for this retracement. We have found nice support at 4440, a former price target, and expect this level to hold but if not, then we could test the 4300's, with a likely floor of 4350. Our next target remains 4580. The Kovach OBV has dipped slightly, but it still appears we are in a bull trend, so anticipate either some ranging today as we digest current prices, or another bull rally.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
S&P500 Long Term Moving AveragesThis chart shows ES with 4 long term averages - 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year. I marked some periods where we dipped below the 1 year average and some volume spikes I saw as relevant. 2015 - Eurozone Crisis: The issues in Europe cause us to finally break the long held trend for the first time since the GFC recovery. It was preceded by a high volume wick in 2014 and another in 2015, both of which seem to have established a bottom for the upcoming scare. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~15%. 2018 - Repo Crisis: This period was also proceeded by a high volume wick but contrary to the last, it did not establish the floor for the upcoming drop. Instead, it was a bounce off the 1 year EMA trend. We saw volume start to rise leading to a large downside candle that signified the bottom. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~22%. 2020 - Covid Crisis: Everyone knows what happened here. The sudden monster volume candle is due to the unexpected nature of this period and how dire the situation seemed. The bottom was almost exactly at the 10 year moving average before violently bouncing back up. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~36%. The current crisis seems bad in the moment but with respect to these prior periods it is not crushing. We already have seen a peak to bottom drop of ~15% so matching the 2015 era would mean we have bottomed already. Matching the 2018 era would mean an additional ~10% from the current price and would put us around 3800. Matching the Covid era would be a disaster and would see us drop another 30% from here. The 35-40% peak to bottom drop would likely lineup at the 10 year moving average assuming it plays out the same (obviously it won't be exactly the same - these crashes are unpredictable) My opinion is that a Covid type crash is not in the cards. Things are nowhere near as bleak as they were then and there would be a strong fiscal/monetary response before we even got there. Also, black swan events are unpredictable so there is no point doing anything in advance to predict them - you can't. 2018 is a somewhat similar scenario but the Repo market is not at risk like it was then. The fed is also being much more clear about rate hikes this time around and clarity is bullish. I think the most similar scenario is 2015. We are seeing trouble in Europe after a recovery rally. Bonds look risky and everyone is calling for another crash. Earnings are still phenomenal and weak companies are getting flushed out without crashing the whole market. Maybe we retest the 4100 lows or even 4000 but I don't think we'll see a huge drop below that. If we do, I think we'll see massive buying pressure around 3800 and bears will run out of bad news and buying power. For a rally look for decreasing VIX and volume and for the Fed to stick to a clear plan. This would be better for stock buying than options and the 2021 WSB guys could get crushed by talented stock pickers. Buy quality and hold long term.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Seth-Goldberg
Breakout Near in Stocks?? 👀🚀📈Stocks are forming a bull wedge pattern and appear to be gearing up for a break out. We did see some volatility at relative highs around our level at 4487, which could indicate a top. We are also seeing several red triangles on the KRI to suggest resistance here. However, the Kovach OBV is still strong despite leveling off a bit. Watch for momentum at open to confirm a breakout. If so, 4521 is the next target. If not, 4408 should provide support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Back to Life??Stocks have received a nice buying wave, blasting through 4440. It appears we are back to bull mode, as this was the level to break before we could consider higher levels. We do appear to be facing some resistance at 4462, an intermediary level before 4487, which is the next relative high and key level to break before we can consider 4580 which is a major target, and high of Frebruary. This level was tested and rejected twice, forming a double top that will be difficult to break out of. If we reject current levels, anticipate support at 4408.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
USEQUITIES potential for pullback! | 21st March 2022Prices have recently broken out of our descending trendline resistance and are on bullish momentum. We see the potential for bearish dip from our sell entry at 3539.23 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 3468.59 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
UShort
by Rockqet
Head & Shoulders Failure, S&P 500 to Rally Towards 5400Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart. The S&P 500 Index exhibited a failed Head & Shoulders setup. The Head can be seen around the 4800 level which are the previous all-time highs. The Left Shoulder is observed around the 4550 resistance in early September 2021 while the Right Shoulder can be seen around the 4600 level in early to mid-February. Neckline is highlighted around the 4200. The S&P 500 had a couple closes below that level but ultimately the Index rallied above those levels. The holding of the 4200 support is seen as an extremely bullish sign as this chart pattern setup formed over several months and ultimately failed. If the S&P 500 can get back above the Head of this pattern setup, it can rally towards 5400 in the medium term. This view will be negated if the S&P 500 Index closes below 4190. Technical Indicators The technical indicators support the S&P 500 Index’s trend reversal. The Index closed above the resistance level of the Supertrend indicator as well as closed above the 50-SMA. Bullish divergence is seen on the Awesome Oscillator. Also, the RSI also illustrated some bullish divergence and is currently trading above 50. The internal price movements of the S&P 500 Index is also displaying bullish tendencies. The Index is above its 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour trend following Indicators. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 4190 and a target of 5400. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 3.30. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing, I have exposure to the S&P 500 Index.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Ceddy86
Stocks Reach Our Target!!Stocks had another day of gains, breaking out to test 4408, the exact level we identified here in these reports. We are seeing two red triangles at this level on the KRI suggesting it is providing resistance for now. The price action does appear to be rounding off, suggesting that we may be in for a retracement or some ranging. Candidate levels for a dip include 4380 and 4327. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish but does appear to be rounding off as well.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Blast Off After FOMC!!Stocks have rallied after the first rate hike in three years by the Federal Reserve. Novice traders might surmise that stocks would collapse off this news, however dedicated readers here should have been prepared. We called this rally days ago. Why? The rate hikes have been priced in months ago and we are seeing a 'relief rally' which follows with more clarity on monetary policy.We pivoted from 4144 and shot up through multiple levels to break highs at 4327. When the decision came we saw a brief pullback then a subsequent rip to even higher leves (A friend bought at 4261 and crushed it, cheers MJ!!). From here we can expect either ranging or higher prices, but will likely see resistance at 4421. We must break this level to see anything higher. Currently, we are seeing a brief pullback to 4327, where we should find support. If we retrace further 4293 should provide further support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Relief Rally in Stocks ahead of FOMCStocks got a major lift ahead of the FOMC rate decision today. As we are all well aware, the Fed is expected to lift rates by 25 basis points (one quarter of a percent) to begin their 'firefight with inflation' . The rate hikes were heavily priced into the markets, and when the decision is made, we can expect a relief rally as the uncertainty is lifted. Inflation is weighing on global stocks, so the action could help ease investor fears. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the buying, taking us all the way back up the entire range to 4327. If you recall this was our exact level from yesterday's report. It is likely that the majority of the rally has taken place, but we could test as high as 4421, a relative high. If we face resistance, however, we could retrace the entire rally back to support at 4144.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Two Reasons to be Wary of Stocks 📉Stocks are hanging by a thread as investors weigh a new Covid outbreak in China , and Geopolitical Tensions . The stock market in China has crashed with 2008 level severity as investors panic over the potential of new Covid lockdowns and sanctions as a consequence of support for Russia. US stocks have been hit as well, with the S&P testing relative lows at 4144. We do appear to be getting good support at this level confirmed by green triangles on the KRI, but we are not seeing much follow through. The level below, 4122 is a significant low, and the barrier between current levels and the lower 4K handle. If we are able to break 4122, then we will likely test the lows of the 4K's. If we see momentum, then 4214 is the next target, about mid way between the range between 4144 and 4327.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Why We Are Still Not Hopeful of a Stock RallyThe S&P 500 has edged up but remains volatile. We made a brief run for relative highs at 4327, but that was swiftly rejected. We appear to have bottomed out at 4214, where we have found support. It appears that we are seeing a slight pivot from this level, but are facing resistance at 4245. Despite hopeful headlines for stocks to rally here in the West, Chinese stocks have tumbled in their worst day since 2008 over concerns about China's close relationship with Russia. We highly doubt we will see a significant rally today, but if we we do, we must break 4327, before we can hit higher levels. The next significant target after that would be 4408.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stocks Breaking Out from Bull Wedge Pattern!! 🚀📈Stocks made a run for relative highs but still appear to be having trouble with relative highs at 4272, which was the exact level we called out yesterday. This and 4293 remain hard upper bounds for the S&P 500. At the time of this writing, we are seeing a small uptick, but these levels remain upper bounds in what appears to be a bull wedge pattern forming. The Kovach OBV is trending upwards suggesting a bull price divergence, and therefore we might anticipate a breakout to higher levels. This is a much anticipated breakout as stocks have been holding onto lower levels all week. We were eyeing 4144 and 4122 as these appear to be the barriers to lower levels around 4K. If we are able to solidly break out from the bull wedge pattern, we still have multiple levels of resistance in the but 4327 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
NAS100 Off Correction Lows, Rally Towards 14600Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. It appears that the lows of the correction have been made around the 13000 price level for NASDAQ 100 Index (NAS100). The Index has broken above its short (30-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) Simple Moving Averages. There have been positive crossovers between the short and long as well as the short and medium term Mas. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) crossed above 0 and is currently green, which indicates positive price movements. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is off the oversold levels and back above 50. Expectations are for NAS100 to continue to rally off the lows with a target at around 14600. From a different trend following perspective, the Supertrend indicator shows a breakout off the 13000 lows with initial resistance around 13440. Once NAS100 breaks above 14000, expectations are for a continued move towards 14650. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 13550 and a target of 14600. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.13. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to NAS100.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Ceddy86
Exuberance Fading in StocksThe S&P saw a nice rally but the hope soon faded. We were able to break 4272, but rejected 4293. Bulls are encountering steep resistance at multiple levels and the momentum we saw just doesn't seem to be sustained. The Kovach OBV has edged up ever so slightly, but has quickly leveled off. We appear to be finding support at 4243, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. However we must solidly break 4272, then 4327 in order to begin to establish a bull trend and consider higher levels again. We should see support at 4144, then 4122 which should be considered a floor price for now. In the event of an absolute melt down, if 4122 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone down to the low 4K's.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
DRD GOLD If gold's price continues to stay elevated and push higher then I believe DRD Gold will push higher too. It has broken out of the trend line and looks set to move higher, which coincides with gold breaking out too. Strikes aside, I think pullbacks will be an opportunity to add to positions. Price targets are highlighted on the chart, with predetermined profit taking prices along the way. Profit taking started today, which also coincides with the strike actioned that was served to Sibanye Stillwater. My price target within 12 months, barring any economic meltdown, is R22 (+- 50% return) My stop loss will be set below R11.50. Disclaimer, I have been accumulating DRD gold since R11,50, and have taken profits recently, will look to add to existing positions again in large pullback like today (9th March 2022)
JSE:DRDLong
by TalkingCents
Stocks Face Volatility... Can the S&P500 Recover??Stocks have pivoted off lows, stubbornly refusing to break 4144, and test relative lows at 4122. There is talk that market participants think that the worst is behind us, especially with regard to the Russia/Ukraine war, which shows no sign of resolution yet. We remain unconvinced and still see much risk to the downside. If 4122 does break, we should be clear to test the lower 4K handle in the S&P 500. If we do find footing, then we must solidly break 4272, then 4327 in order to consider higher levels again. Stocks have remained quite volatile lately, and the Kovach OBV is flat, registering their lack of a clear direction. Trade with caution, but 4144 and 4272 could be ideas for mean reversion trades if this behavior continues.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Test LowsStocks have opened in the red this week. The S&P 500 has retraced almost the entire range, from 4408 down to 4144, just a few points away from the relative low at 4122. We are currently seeing a nice pivot from that level confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV is still quite bearish. The key level to watch is 4122. If this fails to provide support, then there is a vacuum zone below to 4068 and 4009. If we somehow catch a burst of momentum, then 4392 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Early signs of recession When the West were cheering Russian sanctions, seems that no one consulted them properly with people that have to make key economic decisions on regular basis like J Powell. For anyone interested I recommend this article www.zerohedge.com . While current continuation into more established bear market might look like any other short term turn to risk off, the angle and consistency at which stock markets are dropping paired with information like above does suggest we are only at the beginning. My next target for a short term bounce is around 12000, but if things go as some data suggests I would not be surprised to see us closer on IXIC to 10000. If you follow me already on TV, but would like to get a weekly dose of crypto related information and analysis in the future please sign up below thecryptog.substack.com
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by gigisulivan
Stocks Cautious as War Rages OnStocks have been feeling out the 4300's and low 4400's. We made a brief attempt to test 4400, which was quickly thwarted by 4408. It seems that the war between Russia and Ukraine is still instilling market participants with trepidation, especially after Russian forces attacked a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The S&P 500 has since rejected highs and tested lows of the value area at 4272. From here we could test highs again, but will have to break 4408 in order to consider our next profit target at 4440. From below, if we break 4272, then 4122 remains our anticipated floor, but we will likely see support at 4230 first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy