Ger40 Longs (Daily )Longs on Daily - Nice V-shaped recovery, divergent swing. Plenty of bullish momentum and a nice pullback to climb from to the supply zone, where price will decide what to do next.
TRADING IDEA --- NOT AN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!
Equity
Breakout Near for Stocks??Stocks have retraced from highs at 4632 as we anticipated, seeking support at lower levels, namely 4521. We have equilibrated a bit after testing this low, and appear to be gearing up for another bull run. We appear to be seeing the beginnings of a pivot, but if we can't muster the strength to continue it, we may test lower levels. In particular, 4440 stands out as a strong support level. we must break 4632 before attempting higher levels.
US30 LongsIntraday Longs... H&S pattern with plenty of bull momentum from demand, looking to retest the highs at resistance.
TRADING IDEA --- NOT AN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!
Will Stocks Resume their Rally?? 📈🚀Stocks have fallen further after their slight pullback from our target of 4632. We met steep resistance at this level, then drifted downwards a bit, finally taking a dive yesterday. We fell to 4545, one level above where we anticipated support at 4521. The price action does seem to be rounding off, suggesting 4632 might be a top for now. If so, then stocks should find further support at 4521, then 4462. The Kovach OBV seems oddly unaffected by the selloff. We will need to see more momentum come through in either direction before stocks make a definitive move. There is a chance that we see another wave of momentum come through. If that is the case, then 4632 is our barrier to higher levels. We will see if stocks are willing to resume the rally, or if they will correct further, either retracing to lower levels as discussed above, or form a sideways corrective pattern.
Stocks Break 4 Day Winning StreakStocks are ranging just above 4580, the exact level we anticipated support, after breaking a four day winning streak. This comes after hitting our profit target at 4632. We have two red triangles on the KRI to confirm resistance here, but many green triangles from below to confirm support at 4580. We do not anticipate a further retracement, but if so, then 4521 is a likely floor for now. Our ultimate target before a significant retracement would be in the 4600's with 4649, 4668, and 4693 all likely candidates. The Kovach OBV has slumped over for now, reflecting a lack of momentum as stocks pause, so watch for momentum at open to confirm whether the rally will continue. If we see lackluster momentum, we could maintain the range between 4580 and 4632.
Stocks Hit our Profit Target, What's Next??Our reports yesterday were spot on. We called out the breakout from 4580 perfectly, and we hit our profit target of 4632. We are currently seeing some resistance here, as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. News that Ukraine may be offered neutrality may drive the markets higher. We feel this rally may still have legs, and should be able to clear some of levels above. In particular, we have 4649, 4668, and 4693. We could reach as high as 4729 before seeing a technical retracement. The Kovach OBV has been weak compared to the strength of the rally so this is a reasonable assertion. A retracement from current levels could take us back to support at 4440. This would be about a 61.8% retracement on the Fibonacci levels.
Stocks Rally as Global Woes EaseStocks appear to be back in raging bull mode as the market appears to have fully digested the Federal Reserve rate hike plans, and Ukrainian ceasefire talks may also be contributing to a cheerier outlook. We have hit 4580, which was our previous target, and a relative high that had given the S&P 500 issues in the past. We are on the cusp of a vacuum zone to 4632. We are seeing some resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI, and that is anticipated with the significance of the level which we are currently testing. The Kovach OBV is pretty strong, so there is no reason not to expect another breakout today. But if not, 4521 should provide support.
XIAOMI 1810 Good buy NOW!Xiaomi currently in demand zone where it last touched and rose rapidly to ATH 35.9
Big hammer wick on 15 Mar, buyers flooded in to reverse downtrend sharply
Chinese markets proven to be resilient, and Xiaomi is the largest phone producer in China, expanding its products into EV vehicles in the future.
This is not only a good buy, but good for long term hold too.
Take profits:
20
28
29.5
To the moon
Stop loss:
11.08
SPX500 Breakdown from Ascending Channel for a SHORTDescp as shown in chart
Looking at a slight pullback to retest the previous support to verify as resistance before continuing further down to 4300 support
Short entry/Sell indicator
Stock Breakout Near??Stocks have recovered from a retracement after testing 4521. The price action started to 'round off' and we suspected a technical retracement may be in store earlier this week. Our prediction came true and we found support at 4440 also as anticipated. Currently, we are testing relative highs again at 4521, but are encountering steep resistance from red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been inching up but has leveled off slightly as stocks struggle to break out further. We are at some serious resistance, so watch for signs of momentum at open. If not, we will likely reject current levels and head to support at 4440. If we do see a breakout, then 4580 is our next major target.
Stocks Retrace as Oil JumpsStocks have retraced as we have called out yesterday. We were due for a technical retracement, and the fact that oil prices jumped provided a catalyst for this retracement. We have found nice support at 4440, a former price target, and expect this level to hold but if not, then we could test the 4300's, with a likely floor of 4350. Our next target remains 4580. The Kovach OBV has dipped slightly, but it still appears we are in a bull trend, so anticipate either some ranging today as we digest current prices, or another bull rally.
The S&P 500 to Face Resistance??Stocks have edged higher and reached our profit target of 4521. We are starting to see resistance building at each level as confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong however, but the price is gradually starting to round off suggesting we will soon have a range day, or a retracement. After over a week of rallying this is reasonable to expect. If so, 4440 should provide support. If not, our next target is 4580.
S&P500 Long Term Moving AveragesThis chart shows ES with 4 long term averages - 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year. I marked some periods where we dipped below the 1 year average and some volume spikes I saw as relevant.
2015 - Eurozone Crisis:
The issues in Europe cause us to finally break the long held trend for the first time since the GFC recovery. It was preceded by a high volume wick in 2014 and another in 2015, both of which seem to have established a bottom for the upcoming scare. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~15%.
2018 - Repo Crisis:
This period was also proceeded by a high volume wick but contrary to the last, it did not establish the floor for the upcoming drop. Instead, it was a bounce off the 1 year EMA trend. We saw volume start to rise leading to a large downside candle that signified the bottom. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~22%.
2020 - Covid Crisis:
Everyone knows what happened here. The sudden monster volume candle is due to the unexpected nature of this period and how dire the situation seemed. The bottom was almost exactly at the 10 year moving average before violently bouncing back up. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~36%.
The current crisis seems bad in the moment but with respect to these prior periods it is not crushing.
We already have seen a peak to bottom drop of ~15% so matching the 2015 era would mean we have bottomed already.
Matching the 2018 era would mean an additional ~10% from the current price and would put us around 3800.
Matching the Covid era would be a disaster and would see us drop another 30% from here. The 35-40% peak to bottom drop would likely lineup at the 10 year moving average assuming it plays out the same (obviously it won't be exactly the same - these crashes are unpredictable)
My opinion is that a Covid type crash is not in the cards. Things are nowhere near as bleak as they were then and there would be a strong fiscal/monetary response before we even got there. Also, black swan events are unpredictable so there is no point doing anything in advance to predict them - you can't. 2018 is a somewhat similar scenario but the Repo market is not at risk like it was then. The fed is also being much more clear about rate hikes this time around and clarity is bullish.
I think the most similar scenario is 2015. We are seeing trouble in Europe after a recovery rally. Bonds look risky and everyone is calling for another crash. Earnings are still phenomenal and weak companies are getting flushed out without crashing the whole market.
Maybe we retest the 4100 lows or even 4000 but I don't think we'll see a huge drop below that. If we do, I think we'll see massive buying pressure around 3800 and bears will run out of bad news and buying power. For a rally look for decreasing VIX and volume and for the Fed to stick to a clear plan. This would be better for stock buying than options and the 2021 WSB guys could get crushed by talented stock pickers. Buy quality and hold long term.
Breakout Near in Stocks?? 👀🚀📈Stocks are forming a bull wedge pattern and appear to be gearing up for a break out. We did see some volatility at relative highs around our level at 4487, which could indicate a top. We are also seeing several red triangles on the KRI to suggest resistance here. However, the Kovach OBV is still strong despite leveling off a bit. Watch for momentum at open to confirm a breakout. If so, 4521 is the next target. If not, 4408 should provide support.
Stocks Back to Life??Stocks have received a nice buying wave, blasting through 4440. It appears we are back to bull mode, as this was the level to break before we could consider higher levels. We do appear to be facing some resistance at 4462, an intermediary level before 4487, which is the next relative high and key level to break before we can consider 4580 which is a major target, and high of Frebruary. This level was tested and rejected twice, forming a double top that will be difficult to break out of. If we reject current levels, anticipate support at 4408.
USEQUITIES potential for pullback! | 21st March 2022Prices have recently broken out of our descending trendline resistance and are on bullish momentum. We see the potential for bearish dip from our sell entry at 3539.23 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 3468.59 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Head & Shoulders Failure, S&P 500 to Rally Towards 5400Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart.
The S&P 500 Index exhibited a failed Head & Shoulders setup. The Head can be seen around the 4800 level which are the previous all-time highs. The Left Shoulder is observed around the 4550 resistance in early September 2021 while the Right Shoulder can be seen around the 4600 level in early to mid-February. Neckline is highlighted around the 4200. The S&P 500 had a couple closes below that level but ultimately the Index rallied above those levels.
The holding of the 4200 support is seen as an extremely bullish sign as this chart pattern setup formed over several months and ultimately failed. If the S&P 500 can get back above the Head of this pattern setup, it can rally towards 5400 in the medium term. This view will be negated if the S&P 500 Index closes below 4190.
Technical Indicators
The technical indicators support the S&P 500 Index’s trend reversal. The Index closed above the resistance level of the Supertrend indicator as well as closed above the 50-SMA. Bullish divergence is seen on the Awesome Oscillator. Also, the RSI also illustrated some bullish divergence and is currently trading above 50.
The internal price movements of the S&P 500 Index is also displaying bullish tendencies. The Index is above its 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour trend following Indicators.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 4190 and a target of 5400. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 3.30.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing, I have exposure to the S&P 500 Index.
Stocks Reach Our Target!!Stocks had another day of gains, breaking out to test 4408, the exact level we identified here in these reports. We are seeing two red triangles at this level on the KRI suggesting it is providing resistance for now. The price action does appear to be rounding off, suggesting that we may be in for a retracement or some ranging. Candidate levels for a dip include 4380 and 4327. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish but does appear to be rounding off as well.
Stocks Blast Off After FOMC!!Stocks have rallied after the first rate hike in three years by the Federal Reserve. Novice traders might surmise that stocks would collapse off this news, however dedicated readers here should have been prepared. We called this rally days ago. Why? The rate hikes have been priced in months ago and we are seeing a 'relief rally' which follows with more clarity on monetary policy.We pivoted from 4144 and shot up through multiple levels to break highs at 4327. When the decision came we saw a brief pullback then a subsequent rip to even higher leves (A friend bought at 4261 and crushed it, cheers MJ!!). From here we can expect either ranging or higher prices, but will likely see resistance at 4421. We must break this level to see anything higher. Currently, we are seeing a brief pullback to 4327, where we should find support. If we retrace further 4293 should provide further support.
Relief Rally in Stocks ahead of FOMCStocks got a major lift ahead of the FOMC rate decision today. As we are all well aware, the Fed is expected to lift rates by 25 basis points (one quarter of a percent) to begin their 'firefight with inflation' . The rate hikes were heavily priced into the markets, and when the decision is made, we can expect a relief rally as the uncertainty is lifted. Inflation is weighing on global stocks, so the action could help ease investor fears. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the buying, taking us all the way back up the entire range to 4327. If you recall this was our exact level from yesterday's report. It is likely that the majority of the rally has taken place, but we could test as high as 4421, a relative high. If we face resistance, however, we could retrace the entire rally back to support at 4144.
Two Reasons to be Wary of Stocks 📉Stocks are hanging by a thread as investors weigh a new Covid outbreak in China , and Geopolitical Tensions . The stock market in China has crashed with 2008 level severity as investors panic over the potential of new Covid lockdowns and sanctions as a consequence of support for Russia. US stocks have been hit as well, with the S&P testing relative lows at 4144. We do appear to be getting good support at this level confirmed by green triangles on the KRI, but we are not seeing much follow through. The level below, 4122 is a significant low, and the barrier between current levels and the lower 4K handle. If we are able to break 4122, then we will likely test the lows of the 4K's. If we see momentum, then 4214 is the next target, about mid way between the range between 4144 and 4327.
Why We Are Still Not Hopeful of a Stock RallyThe S&P 500 has edged up but remains volatile. We made a brief run for relative highs at 4327, but that was swiftly rejected. We appear to have bottomed out at 4214, where we have found support. It appears that we are seeing a slight pivot from this level, but are facing resistance at 4245. Despite hopeful headlines for stocks to rally here in the West, Chinese stocks have tumbled in their worst day since 2008 over concerns about China's close relationship with Russia. We highly doubt we will see a significant rally today, but if we we do, we must break 4327, before we can hit higher levels. The next significant target after that would be 4408.
