US10Y - Make or break?!TVC:US10Y
US10Y at a very make or break level right now, personally I see more downside for stocks!
Equity
Stocks Dive but Find SupportThe S&P 500 has retraced from relative highs at 4487, reentering the previous value we identified yesterday. Recall that we asserted yesterday that if stocks retraced, they would likely enter the value area between 4272 and 4440. We do appear to be finding support roughly in the middle of this range, just above 4364, where we saw support Monday. Stocks could be feeling out a new value area between 4364 and 4487, relative highs. The Kovach OBV has curved over, suggesting that momentum has dried up for now. If we continue our descent and break through 4364, then 4272 is sure to provide support. If we see a rally, then we must break 4487, then 4580 is the next target.
$NIO update charthaven't really traded stocks for a min
watching how this plays out as FTX has it listed
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
All Eyes on Russia Tensions as Stocks Edge HigherStocks have risen a bit off alleviated Ukraine/Russia tensions. Troops have apparently pulled back, though several Ukrainian government institutions have been hacked, which adds some ambiguity to the overall picture. We appear to have an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming off recent lows, as we penetrated the value area between 4440 and 4272. We have made an attempt to break through to higher levels but 4462 is currently providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Watch momentum at the North American open. If we are able to see another burst of momentum, we could make a run for highs in the value area above, where 4580 is likely to provide resistance and prove to be a ceiling for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but does appear to be weakening as we meet resistance.
HERMES-STRATEGIC MEDIUM/LONG TERM BUY !Following the sharp decline (-30.85 %), since the ATH @ EUR 1678.00 reached on December 1st, 2021, the price action triggered an HAMMER (reversal pattern) coupled
with a RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE, which is a first positive signal calling for a trend reversal towards higher levels.
Important to also note that a potential DOUBLE BOTTOM is in progress (first bottom having been reached on October 1st, 2021 @ 1'166.50 !
Today's ongoing price action (long white candle) is, for the time being confirming this reversal and a closing level, on a DAILY BASIS, ideally above the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (@ 1'257.80) would
add further support to this expected bullish scenario.
IMPLICATIONS :
UPSIDE :
Once this first resistance level will be broken, focus will be on the second resistance area (cluster of both Kijun-Sen or Base line (1288) and the MId Bollinger Band-(1298) -"my own Barometer !", for further development
(on this daily time frame, BULLISH above and BEARISH below the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB).
The ongoing downtrend resistance line (in red), currently around 1'380 would be the next resistance level to look at ahead of the Daily clouds area (currently very thin) and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 1480.50.
A clear upside breakout of the top of the clouds would reopen the door for a new attempt of ATH.
DOWNSIDE :
Former low @ 1'160.50 is the first support to look at and any dips towards this level should be seen as consolidative move in a new uptrend.
Main focus will remain on the WEEKLY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (1'200-1'025) with intermediate support @ 1'097,00 this level being the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally which started @ EUR 516.00 in March 16, 2020
CONCLUSION :
HERMES is a diamond, very well managed and fundamentally exceptional !
Therefore, STRATEGIC LONG EXPOSURE SHOULD BE BUILT FROM CURRENT LEVEL AND ON DIPS AS A REAL VALUE ADDED ON ANY PORTFOLIO.
Tensions Easing? Stocks Get a LiftStocks have gotten support from 4364, roughly the midpoint of the range they were holding between 4272 and 4440. We have since broken through that high and attempted 4462, the next level above, where we are currently meeting resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Perhaps this rally follows news that some Russian troops have returned to base, and the Ukranian tensions may be easing a bit. The Kovach OBV has picked up ever so slightly, but if we cannot break through to higher levels, we should see the bear rout return, and test 4440 again, or break lower into the previous value area once more. We still anticipate 4272 as a floor for now. The next major target is 4580 if bull momentum returns.
Russia Tensions Hit StocksStocks have tanked off Ukraine/Russia tensions. We were holding the value area between 4462 and 4580 last week, but have smashed through the lower bound of this range and have reentered the value area between 4272 and 4440. The Kovach OBV has dropped significantly, but appears to be leveling off as the S&P 500 clamors to find support. A green triangle on the KRI signifies some support around 4364 or so. If we continue the rout, then 4272 should be the lower bound. If we pick up momentum, then 4440 and 4462 are the targets to watch.
Carabao Group PCLShare has been falling because it was over-hyped and over-valued.
I am expecting more of a pullback and a retest critical support zones between (90-87 baht) (87 -80 baht). We should see a bounce at these levels, bouncing off an existing trend line . However, if that doesn't hold then we could see another meaningful correction to lower levels to bring the multiples back down to earth.
The earnings report should lead the way for direction.
If their earnings report isn't to the markets liking, then we can expect that 87 baht area to fail and gradually make its way back down to the 40 baht region.
If the Earnings report is decent and shows growing revenues and increasing margins, well, then we could see that white trend line holding and could be the catalyst for a continued uptrend.
With a P/E multiple of 32 - the market is pricing in expected earnings for the future already and is expecting big things from this company, so I would tread lightly here. Any missed guidance or revenue contractions will send the share tumbling.
Nonetheless, I will be taking my first position between 80-90 baht baht and leaving it there for the long term, and will be looking to add again in the 40 -55 baht region.
As Predicted, Stocks RetraceStocks have rejected 4580 as we anticipated yesterday. After inflation data yesterday and increased Fed rate hike expectations, the S&P 500 sharply rejected 4580, where we anticipated strong resistance anyway, and retraced the entire range back to lows at 4462, exactly as predicted. The Kovach OBV appeared to be gaining gradually, but has turned sharply bearish with the selloff. We appear to be leveling off suggesting support at current levels will likely hold. But if not, watch 4440, as it is the upper bound of the recent value area between 4272 and 4440. From here we are likely to continue the sideways correction between 4462 and 4580. Watch for continued resistance at 4580. If we are able to break this level then there is a vacuum zone to 4632.
Stocks Testing Resistance Stocks have tested the upper bound of our range at 4580. We anticipated the S&P 500 to hold the range between 4440 and 4580 in yesterday's report. We currently appear to be running into resistance, but there is a vacuum zone above to 4632 if we are able to break through. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but does not seem to match the strength of the rally, so beware of a retracement at current levels. If we do retrace, we have plenty of options for support in the 4500's, with 4440 or 4462 likely candidates for floor prices for now.
Why We Are Not Getting Excited About the Stock Rally Yet... 🥱Stocks have broken out from their consolidation pattern we discussed yesterday. This breakout was a bit disappointing, as we were unable to even test highs at 4580. We met resistance just shy of this level at 4545, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. The Kovach OBV is almost completely flat, despite this small rally, which does not give us much confidence in its continuation. If we are able to continue the bull run, we will almost certainly meet resistance at 4580. Note that after this target, there is a vacuum zone to 4632. It appears that stocks are still in a sideways corrective pattern, suggesting that we may retrace within the current range, and find support again at 4462. If this level does not hold, we should see further support from 4440.
Stock Breakout Soon??Stocks are ranging in the value area we identified yesterday, currently finding support at 4440, the exact level we called out in these reports. We are holding a narrow range between 4440 and 4545. Volatility has consolidated considerably, and we are forming a sideways correction, possibly a triangle pattern. The longer that ranging will continue, the more likey a breakout will follow. The Kovach OBV is sloping downward, suggesting a slight bear divergence. If 4440 does not hold, then we will reestablish the range that stocks have held between 4272 and 4440. If We gain momentum, we must first break through 4580, then there is a vacuum zone to 4632. We must break 4580, before being considered 'bullish' again.
ERX - Direxion Energy Bull.... or rather, "bear".It looks to me like ERX (Direxion Energy Bull 2x ETF) is ironically forming a very bearish outline which seems to coincide with other bearish indicators for oil and equity markets.
What's interesting here is the coexistence of a rising wedge form (highlighted in orange) with what appears to be quite a tidy Elliot wave count.
There is a pretty clear set of 5 major waves dating from August 2021 when the market produced a triple bottom and began to rally.
There may be alternate counts here but I do think they will all arrive at the same conclusion that wave 5 is in.
Since the end of 2021, there is also a set of 5 secondary waves which correspond to the primary wave 4.
Furthermore, this set of secondary waves appears to form a rising wedge which I have highlighted in orange.
Shorting leveraged ETF's is often risky but it does seem that this correlates with other moves taking place on the market.
For instance, EXXON is displaying a rising wedge.
Chevron also seems to be forming a rising wedge after an earnings miss.
These correlate with the rising wedge I describe in this chart and my suspicion that wave counts may also correlate.
Again, I emphasise that shorting leveraged products is risky and as always, do your own research, manage your risk properly and be careful with picking entries.
If you are interested in the market-wide phenomenon I have described here you may be interested in my other recent ideas which all examine aspects of the same phenomenon.
Additionally, I am open to other interpretations & advice on how to count this so comments are welcome. I believe that the rising wedge here adds weight to the view that we have just had Wave 5 in the energy and oil markets and that a correction is en route.
Marketwide Risk-Off Shaping UpAs people may be aware, I have been tracking what looks like a bearish diamond on SPX.
Naturally, these have a certain failure rate (as do all technical analysis forms) however this does not mean that they should not be treated with caution when trading and it does not mean that the potential for a risk-off move should be dismissed.
Furthermore, there is a lot more evidence I can submit to back this idea up and this is what I shall explore within this piece.
Firstly, as we might be aware, many stocks on the NYSE are already in a state of decline.
This started with small-cap stocks such as GME and PLTR which we can see have had a rough time of it of late.
GME is down about 75%
PLTR is down about 75% over one year.
The broader Russell 2000 (RUT) has already dropped by around 15%.
As such, small caps have been suffering for months.
This is nothing new particularly. However, it seems that the context of this bloodbath of small-cap stocks could be part of something much broader.
In the past couple of weeks, we have observed large caps also starting to struggle.
FB is down about 42% from September 2021 to the present.
NFLX is down about 45% over the same period.
AMZN fell by about 25% over the last 3 months.
All of this is self-evident and raises lots of questions.
The most important being, "where do markets go next"?
Fundamentally, I do believe that bigger things are happening.
If we look at some of the less-prominent big-cap companies we can see what appears to be similar risk-off moves shaping up.
For instance, JPM seems to be showing signs of a rising wedge after an -18% fall.
INTC is currently undergoing a rising-wedge breakdown.
XOM appears to be forming a rising wedge after a parabolic move over the last 4 months.
AABV is undergoing a similar move on the fine resolution.
In summary, the rout which began in small-caps appears to be migrating outwards.
I am not sure of the cause of this yet. However... there are some risks on the horizon due to the FED ending its easing program and beginning fiscal tightening.
There is also a very bearish outline for oil shaping up which I have explored in further detail here.
I strongly suspect that the same forces we are seeing weigh-in on oil and small-cap stocks are now beginning to affect the broader equity market.
Concerning SPX directly, we can see a gradual weakening of momentum over the past year leading up to this point with a strong MACD divergence and an emerging RSI divergence.
And naturally, I suspect that this is emerging due to the small-cap rout which is in full swing and the emerging big-cap rout.
The outline I have put forward for oil may also have an impact here as it seems companies such as EXXON are displaying the same technical forms which companies in unrelated fields are displaying.
We may therefore be in the early stages of a marketwide risk-off.
Naturally, technical analysis has a certain failure rate, but the evidence I have collated here from a fairly diverse set of sources seems to add weight to the idea that we are nearing a bearish inflexion point within asset markets and should position accordingly.
Stocks Retrace, Breakout Soon??The S&P 500 has retraced a bit after breaking out to 4580. This is a significant target which must be solidly broken if stocks are to consider new highs again. There is a vacuum zone above this level to 4632, which is our next target. However, we are seeing a corrective phase after the push from the low 4200's, with a retracement to support at 4440, the exact level we highlighted. From here, we anticipate more momentum for stocks, as the Kovach OBV is starting to pick up and the markets seem to be digesting news of Fed Rate Hikes, Omicron risk, inflation, world wide vaccine protests and more. If we continue to sell off, we anticipate support in the value area from before with 4272 a likely floor.
Stocks Reject Higher LevelsStocks have showed some weakness after rejecting higher levels at 4580. We appear to have topped out at this level for now with several red triangles on the KRI confirming prohibitive resistance for now. The Kovach OBV has taken a notable dive downward, but we have found support for now at 4462. We might be forming a bear wedge with a lower bound at this level. If we are able to break through, we should see good support at 4440, otherwise we will enter the previous value area between 4272 and 4440 again. If we see a burst of momentum, then 4580 must be broken before we attempt higher levels in the 4600's.
Stocks Meet ResistanceThe S&P 500 has made a run for higher levels, but has faced extreme resistance at 4580, which we identified as a hurdle for stocks in these reports. We attempted to break higher, but several red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance. Subsequently, a small retracement took us back to support at 4521. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, lending skepticism to this rally. If we retrace further, it is likely that we will see support at 4440 again. If we are able to see momentum come through then 4632 is the next target.
NASDAQ is heading for the recent ATM If NASDAQ could hold 14000 then we could get confirmation on bottom. It's showing sign of moving up towards the previous ATH, the 16000 to 17000 range (the TW1 level).
Stocks Hit Our Profit Target 🤑📈 Will Momentum Continue??Stocks have gained notable momentum. We have broken through our first target of 4487, and have made a run for the second level at 4580. We are currently seeing some resistance at this level, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. There is a vacuum zone above 4580 to 4632, which is our next target for the S&P 500 if we are able to break 4580. The Kovach OBV is trending up, indicating bullish momentum, but we are facing a lot of resistance from these levels. If resistance prevails, we may retrace to support at 4487 again, or even retrace the entire move back to 4440.
Stocks Break Out!!Stocks have gained steam in the Asia-Pacific session, finally breaking through the upper bound of the range at 4440, which they have been holding all week last week. The S&P 500 was able to reach our next target of 4487, and continued to trend up, before finally coming up for air around 4521, where two red triangles on the KRI are noting resistance. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, suggesting there may be more legs to this rally. Watch for momentum at the open for confirmation. If so, then our next target is 4580. Once we break this level there is a vacuum zone back up to 4632. In the event of a retracement, 4440 should provide support, and if not, we will reenter the value area between 4272 and 4440 once again.
Stocks Test the RangeStocks are maintaining the wide range between 4272 and 4440. We are currently tending to the upper bound of this range, testing higher levels where we are meeting resistance. The Kovach OBV is trending upwards, suggesting a slight bull divergence. Watch the open today to determine if momentum picks up for clues as to whether we can break 4440. If so, the next target is 4487, then 4580. If 4440 provides prohibitive resistance, we could make a run for lows again at 4272, but we have plenty of levels of support in between from which we could get a pivot. Stocks must definitively break 4440 before we can be considered 'bullish' again.
DJIA Is Rebounding from The Lower Boundary of The Upward ChannelThe DJIA has been moving in an upward channel since around mid-June 2021. Recently the index formed a long bullish hammer candle that successfully confirmed a significant support area of a rising window/gap at 33,175 (this is called the cluster of candles). All the last week candles closed over the lower boundary of the rising channel and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 34060 as well as the 251-day EMA. In addition to this, there is a bullish divergence signal from the Williams %R out of the oversold zone. Therefore, the index is moving to test the levels at 35063, 35513 and 36152. In contrast, declining below the levels at 34060 and 33160 should indicate a further bearish move ahead.
