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Stocks Break Out!!Stocks have gained steam in the Asia-Pacific session, finally breaking through the upper bound of the range at 4440, which they have been holding all week last week. The S&P 500 was able to reach our next target of 4487, and continued to trend up, before finally coming up for air around 4521, where two red triangles on the KRI are noting resistance. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, suggesting there may be more legs to this rally. Watch for momentum at the open for confirmation. If so, then our next target is 4580. Once we break this level there is a vacuum zone back up to 4632. In the event of a retracement, 4440 should provide support, and if not, we will reenter the value area between 4272 and 4440 once again.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Test the RangeStocks are maintaining the wide range between 4272 and 4440. We are currently tending to the upper bound of this range, testing higher levels where we are meeting resistance. The Kovach OBV is trending upwards, suggesting a slight bull divergence. Watch the open today to determine if momentum picks up for clues as to whether we can break 4440. If so, the next target is 4487, then 4580. If 4440 provides prohibitive resistance, we could make a run for lows again at 4272, but we have plenty of levels of support in between from which we could get a pivot. Stocks must definitively break 4440 before we can be considered 'bullish' again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
DJIA Is Rebounding from The Lower Boundary of The Upward ChannelThe DJIA has been moving in an upward channel since around mid-June 2021. Recently the index formed a long bullish hammer candle that successfully confirmed a significant support area of a rising window/gap at 33,175 (this is called the cluster of candles). All the last week candles closed over the lower boundary of the rising channel and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 34060 as well as the 251-day EMA. In addition to this, there is a bullish divergence signal from the Williams %R out of the oversold zone. Therefore, the index is moving to test the levels at 35063, 35513 and 36152. In contrast, declining below the levels at 34060 and 33160 should indicate a further bearish move ahead.
TVC:DJI
by MohammedEl-Sherbiny
Technical Analysis for StocksStocks appear to be establishing value in the lower 4300 handle. We have support from below at 4272, and are facing resistance above at 4440. The Kovach OBV has completely flattened out, confirming the indecision. Currently, it appears we are making a run for lower levels, so watch 4272. If we are able to break this, then 4228 is the next target. Beyond that, we have 4214, then a vacuum zone to 4188. If we catch a bid and are able to break 4440, then 4487 will be the level to break before 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Tumble after FOMCStocks have broken down from 4440, and sought out lower levels in the 4300 handle after dipping as low as 4272. This followed the FOMC meeting, where the Fed delayed an interest rate hike but noted that a hike every subsequent meeting for 2022 was not out of the question. This and balance sheet reduction is their plan to combat the highest inflation in a generation. The markets jostled to digest this information with choppy trading before stocks dumped to lower levels. The Kovach OBV is tapering upwards in an apparent divergence with price, which fell through two handles before finding support in the 4300's, reaching 4353, where we are seeing resistance from a red triangle on the KRI. If we fall further, then we should have support at 4245 or 4223. If we rally, then we will see resistance at 4440. It is likely that stocks will try to establish value somewhere between these two bounds before making their next move.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Hinge on Three Key Issues from the FOMC Statement TodayStocks continue to edge up trepidaciously, testing 4421 or so, the levels from which we dumped on Monday. Two red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance here at every attempt. We won't see much action in stocks until after the FOMC minutes in the afternoon. A rate hike is largely priced into the markets, so when this happens, we should be able to break out higher. However, if their rhetoric is particularly hawkish, we could make another run for lows. Watch what they have to say about three key issues: inflation, Omicron, and Russia tensions, all issues which are currently spooking investors. If we are able to break out, then 4487, and 4580 are the next targets. If we break lower, we could test 4245 again. The Kovach OBV is edging up showing a slight bull divergence, but the FOMC event is what the markets are hanging on before their next move.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Have Stocks Bottomed??Stocks dumped yesterday as we anticipated in the reports. Yesterday morning, we saw a small bounce from the S&P 500 apparently attempting to test the mid 4400 handle, but this was attempt was swiftly batted down in a persistent selloff that lasted most of the day. At the end of the day, we saw a sharp buyback, which could have been a gamma squeeze as puts were piling into the order books. The sharp short squeeze erased all of our losses with some stock indexes ending the day in the green. Currently, we edged lower, as the markets equilibrate from the selloff and subsequent rally. We appear to be getting support from 4327 and resistance from 4389 at the moment. If we continue to press higher, we could see an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 4409 or 4440. A breakout from there could test 4487, or 4580. If things take a turn for the worse, then 4245 should provide support, but if not 4188 and 4178 are the first levels in the 4100 handle.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Stocks Dip Sharply, A Bearish Start to the WeekStocks have fallen, taking a turn for the worse at the opening of the Asia-Pacific session. We have given up the 4400 handle entirely to seek support in the 4300's. We made a valiant attempt to pivot to the mid 4400's, where 4431 proved to be a barrier. A rejection took us back to support at 4380. A green triangle on the KRI is starting to suggest some support here, but the risk sentiment is looking pretty bearish. We should have support from 4364, 4350, and 4327 in the event of another dump. If we are able to catch a relief rally, 4431 should provide resistance, with 4487 a likely ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Stocks DUMP!! What to Expect...Stocks plummeted near close yesterday, cratering more than 100 points. It appears that the stock market is not digesting the Russia/Ukraine issue, with NATO talks 'going nowhere'. We made an attempt to break into the vacuum zone above 4580, but a red triangle on the KRI marked sharp resistance early into this attempt. Subsequently we sold off, smashing through the 4500 handle, and testing levels in the 4400 handle. We appear to be seeing support from 4462, and made a small attempt at a pivot to 4487, where we are currently seeing notable resistance. At the time of this writing, we are currently seeing what appears to be a rejection, seeking support at 4462. The already abysmal Kovach OBV has taken a sharp turn downward, but does appear to be showing signs of leveling off. We have a cluster of levels in the lower 4400's to provide support including 4440, 4431, 4421, and 4408. All of these could potentially be targets if the selloff persists. If not, we could make a run for the relative low at 4521 or attempt 4580 again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Continue to Dive 📉😱Stocks have continued to press lower, breaking several key levels. After breaking 4580, we made a brief attempt at a pivot back through the vacuum zone to test 4632, but that fizzled quickly. Subsequently, we plummeted back to lower levels, breaking 4545 and finally finding support at 4521. A green triangle on the KRI is confirming support at this level. The Kovach OBV is still abysmally bearish, arching straight down, with not the slightest sign of leveling off to suggest a bottom forming. However, at this point we are quite oversold and due for a relief rally, even if its just technically driven. If so, watch for a breakout from 4580 into the vacuum zone again, with 4632 being a potential target. If the rout continues, then 4504 and 4487 are the next targets to the downside.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Take a Noisedive!! Is a bottom in sight??Stocks took a sharp turn for the worse. As predicted, the break down from the inverse head and shoulders pattern we identified two days ago, was a bearish sign indeed. We have traversed the vacuum zone below 4632 and made a run for 4580. We anticipated this level to hold, but we saw only a brief attempt at a pivot off this level which was quickly sold back down, breaking 4580 and testing the next two levels down. We have several levels in the upper 4500 handle to provide a cushion, and it appears like 4545 may be doing the job for now. If not, the next levels are 4521 and 4504, the latter being the last support level in the 4500 handle. We have seen a small pivot from 4545, and are currently testing 4580 again, peaking up just above this level at the time of this writing. We have encroached upon the vacuum zone between 4580 and 4632 again, but the Kovach OBV has been solidly bearish for most of 2022. If we do see a rally, 4632 is bound to provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Break Down from Inverse Head and Shoulders!!📉😱Stocks have broken down hard from our inverse head and shoulders pattern. This should be considered a very bearish sign. We have broken into the vacuum zone between 4632 and 4580, finding support at roughly the midpoint around 4600, a psychological level, which may also become our next addition to technical levels on this chart. The Kovach OBV is quite bearish, but if we see a relief rally, we can expect the S&P 500 to test 4632. We have several levels above this in the 4600 handle, with 4668, the neckline of our inverse H&S a likely ceiling for now. The neckline of a failed H&S pattern always proves to be a significant barrier. From below, 4580 and 4564 should provide support.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have dipped, testing lower levels in the 4600 handle. We found good support at 4632, but are witnessing some volatility here. We may be seeing the formation of an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline at 4668, one of our technical levels which appears to be providing resistance. Several red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance as we have tested this level three times. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but if momentum comes through and we are able to break out, then 4693 and 4729 are the next targets. The latter level has provided prohibitive resistance the last time stocks attempted higher levels last week. We still have several factors weighing on the market including Covid recovery worries, staffing shortages, inflation and interest rates. If our inverse H&S breaks down, its a bearish sign indeed, but watch for support at 4580.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Reviewing my last trade for 2021: $TRT 25%ish gainLuckily, I ended up 2021 with a win. It was a modest one but given how tough the trading environment was back in December for the long side (likewise in the start of 2022), I'm thankful that I was able to pull off a W. Let's review it $TRT is the ticker of the trade. First entered the trade back in December 7, 2021 (1st Green Arrow) at $9, when it proved strength. Cut was $7.20 Was a little challenged by this trade given it didn't move right away as I expected it to. When it retraced, I gave myself two options: follow the original cut or exit the position early and buy it back in case stock proves me wrong. Decided to go for the latter and went out of the position last Dec 13, 2021. (1st Red Arrow) I was proven wrong. I went back in TRT on Dec 15 (2nd Green Arrow), again when it showed strength and added more when it slightly corrected (Multiple Green Arrows). Me being proven wrong by the stock earlier gave me more confidence to size this bigger compared to the initial engagement. Used the 5 Day Moving Average to trail my profit when I was ahead. Was initially targeting $15 but it never happened. TRT retraced to my trail profit, putting me out of the trade at $11.40 with a 25% gain (2nd Red Arrow). Expected more but can't complain. A nice end of year bonus. Takeaways from this trade: Always be ready and be patient for your A+ setups to manifest. Zooming out, the area pattern traded is an ascending triangle, a bullish area pattern Hope you learned a thing or two. Thanks and good luck out there!
AMEX:TRT
by kevvela
Stocks Selloff, Cling to Lower Levels in the 4600's4729, but this level seemed prohibitive for stocks, and we sold off from there slicing through 4693 with ease, but finding support at 4649. We made a brief attempt at a pivot, but 4668 is proving to be an obstacle as a red triangle on the KRI has confirmed resistance here. The Kovach OBV has dropped off notably into bearish territory, but is starting to level off. We will need to see more momentum here before we can test the 4700's again. If so, the next target is 4729 again. If the bear rout continues, then we should have support from 4632, but after that, we have a vacuum zone down to 4580, which has provided support during the sharp selloff on the 10th, and is likely to continue to hold.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Breakout Soon for Stocks??Stocks have gained some steam as the markets are graadually digesting the Fed and inflation. We have hit our price target of 4729, and broken above this level briefly to test the next level of resistance at 4763. We saw some red triangles on the KRI just below this level confirming that is an upper bound for now. We appear to be consolidating around 4729, which suggests that stocks are gearing up for their next move. Watch the momentum toward open. If we are able to sustain another rally, then 4763 is the level to watch as the S&P attempts to claw back highs. We should have plenty of support from below in the event of a retracement, with 4693, 4668, and 4649 the first levels to provide support in the 4600 handle.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
4
Stocks Edge Up After Pricing in the FedStocks have edged up after the markets are gradually digesting a more hawkish Fed. We have seen good support from 4580, and a strong pivot from that level, and have blasted up to regain the 4700 handle. Currently, we are testing 4729, the first level in the 4700 handle from below. A red triangle on the KRI is confirming some resistance there. We will need to wait until the open to determine if we have enough steam in the tank to press higher. If so, the next level is 4763, which is the lower bound of the range the S&P 500 near highs. This was the range from which we broke down after ranging for several days. The final target remains 4821, the upper bound of the range, which must be broken before we can consider making new highs again. There are several levels below to provide support including 4693, 4668, 4649, and 4632. These should provide support but if they do not hold, then 4580 should serve as a floor for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy