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Equity

New Highs For Stocks??The S&P 500 is currently at the cusp of new highs. It has retraced the entire cypher breakdown. It is likely we will retrace here to support. First, we have had three straight days of gains. Second, although we are seeing higher highs and higher lows, the hallmark of a bull trend, these values come at a decreasing pace, ie we are seeing the S&P 500 'round off'. Therefore, if we do not see momentum at open, we are likely to retrace to support at 4245 or 4228, which would provide excellent opportunities for long positions. Watch the Kovach Momentum indicator. If you do not see a large spike at open, we are not having the follow through in momentum we need to punch through to higher highs.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks are Back!!Stocks have rebounded to within a few ticks of where they broke from our butterfly cypher pattern. This suggests that the markets have fully digested inflation and interest rate updates from the FOMC meeting and most likely suggests that we are back to bull mode. Nasdaq printed highs yesterday, so the S&P 500 could be soon to follow. It will take some momentum to break through 4260, and if we do not see it, anticipate a retracement to support at 4245 or 4228. The Kovach OBV has returned to highs itself, as has the Chande, which is a sign that we are overbought and due for a retracement. Watch the momentum at open. If it is paltry or there is a lack of conviction, we will retreat to support at the levels discussed above. But there is no doubt that overall momentum has returned for stocks
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Wild Ride for Stocks!!Stocks have recovered from the dip which reached our profit target from the butterfly cypher pattern. We dipped quite a bit, down to the 0.618 level (one level past our profit target) to 4144. Almost immediately, investors swooped in to buy back the S&P at lower prices and we closed back just shy of 4245, currently finding support at 4214. The Kovach OBV is oscillatory, matching the fluctuations in price. It could go either way at this point. Another selling wave could take us to support at 4188 or 4144 again. An influx of momentum could push prices back to highs past 4245 to 4272. After such drastic volatility it is reasonable for the markets to seek value.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Will Stocks Maintain Highs??Stocks have inched out highs on Friday. Asia's opening has seen little movement from those levels. In order to maintain current levels we need some momentum desperately. Otherwise, we will likely see a retracement. As we have noted multiple times in this report, 4188 or 4144 would be nice targets for a selloff. Buying at these levels would be FOMO and would carry significant downside risks, so keep a narrow stop loss if you are long. The Kovach OBV is very gradually tapering up but is broadly speaking quite flat.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Stock Hugging HighsStocks have made a run for highs, but faced steep opposition there. We saw some big volatility yesterday, rejecting 4245, taking us back down 20 points to 4225, then retracing back again. There is a clear affinity for highs, but it will take some momentum to solidly break them. It could go either way so watch for momentum at the open. We still feel we are in need of a healthy retracement to 4188 or 4144, but we cannot deny the bull bias. The Kovach OBV is tapering up, but still pretty weak. Strong momentum at open will be key to a breakout. If so, our next target is 4272.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
The Direction Of The S&P500 Is UPThe direction of ES futures is UP There is the overbought (OB) trend noise balance (TNB) indicator on 2D-1W to confirm this There is a 1D BUY weakness (WK) indicator to confirm short term There is an 8H SELL WK indicator to conflict this (use SL to manage the risk of this indicator) Be aware of the cost of any potential SL and the affect of that on the account. In this scenario CMP 4223, 1W LOW SL 4165, 1 MES contract $5.00 = 1 'handle', cost = $290, In the book, Trading For A Living - a trade should not risk more than 2% of the account, account size = $290 / 0.02 = $14,500 minimum. This trade depends on where the market expects the month and the quarter to close. The ES futures has a sequence of 4 quarters closing high. The 1D 1XP BBW indicates that price will expand. The expansion could reach the 1M BB 2CP or it could reach the opening of the quarter. I think a surprise move to close the quarter red will set up more potential for bullish growth later. However, that is only a guess. I don't want to leave the short term opportunity on the table so I BUY and manage the risk with SL. If the SL is reached, I will patiently wait for the more ideal BUY zone to be reached although the market direction may be changed to DN at that point, in which case the analysis will be updated.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn23694386
1
Action Soon for Stocks??Stocks continue to maintain a very narrow range between 4214 and 4225. The longer it maintains this range, the more likely a breakout becomes. We feel that it would be healthy for stocks to feel out lower levels before making new highs, and are preparing for a dip down to 4188 or 4144. The Kovach OBV is still flat and our outlook will not change until we see some life again. Levels from above will provide formidable resistance such as 4245 and 4272. It is unlikely we will hit our target of 4293 any time soon.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Stagnant... Dump Coming??Stocks seem unable to break past 4228, the level they attained based on NFP numbers Friday. If the S&P is unable to budge from this resistance level, it most assuredly will dump, and perhaps our Gartley pattern was correct after all. We are starting to see a bit of a dip back to 4214, and if this does not hold we will see support from 4188. Stocks do appear to be a bit overweight right now, and due for a correction, which could easily take us back to our target price of 4147, based on the CD segment of the cypher. The Kovach OBV is pretty stagnant so this could easily come to fruition soon.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Wavering, Looking WeakStocks are forming a bear flag with a POC right at our 4188 level, which is a technical level and a Fibonacci level. We have adjusted our stop loss just above 4228, but the more conservative could adjust it to break even, or a few ticks in profit. We have one more level from below, 4165, before our target of 4147. If we are wrong and we get a burst of momentum, then 4214 will be the first level to provide resistance. The Kovach OBV is still pretty flat, suggesting life has not returned to stocks and we need more enticing prices.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
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PLong
by UnknownUnicorn212178
4
Stocks WaveringStocks have rejected 4228, which could be the first phase of the breakdown from our Gartley cypher pattern. A typical target for these cypher patterns is half of the height of the final segment of the pattern (CD). This puts us at 4144, which is not only a Fibonacci level but a technical level making it that much more auspicious. If we are wrong, we still have one level before highs, and it is doubtful stocks have the strength right now for it. The Kovach OBV appears to be turning over, suggesting, if anything, that will at least range. The level 4188 will provide support for now, also a technical level and a Fibonacci level.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy