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Stocks Face HeadwindsThe S&P has retraced significantly from highs. We are seeing quite a bit of volatility as large price swings of a full ATR or more are quite common with this product right now. These price swings have even registered with the Kovach OBV which is telling us there is a lot of momentum here in these buying and selling waves. The Kovach Chande is at highs. Since this is an oscillator, it is saying that the pendulum has swung to the buy-side and we are due for another retracement. If we are correct, we can expect the S&P to test 3713 or even 3675. From there it should find support. if it is able to breakout to the upside, there is a vacuum zone back to 3792
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Cautiously Optimistic of StocksStocks saw some incredible volatility yesterday. No doubt some of this is related to the GameStop saga. The S&P 500 has completely retraced the bear move only to give back thse gains and settle around a cluster of levels beginning at 3737. It is likely to find support here, at least for the moment, which seems to be verified over the past few hours. If it breaks further down it will have support at 3714. the next level is in the 3600 handle at 3694. The Kovach OBV has whipsawed which is extremely rare. Usually this indicator goes with the overall trend. This is telling us that there is an extreme amount of momentum in stocks lately, in both directions: selling and buying. It is difficult to determine the overall direction of stocks, however we still remain cautiously bullish for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Cypher Pattern Breakdown in StocksStocks have faced a tremendous retracement. The S&P has blasted through levels in the 3800 handle. It tested the low 3700's before finally finding support. There is a bearish cypher crab pattern on the daily chart. This is an extremely bearish sign, and such a large selloff could be the initial breakdown from this pattern. The Kovach OBV is registring the sell off. Currently, the S&P is ranging between 3712 and 3750. It is reasonable that it should try to find footing after such a tremendous selloff. The boundaries of this range will provide support/resistance, so pay attention to what happens at open. The next levels of support are in the 3600's at 3695, then 3676 then 3658.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Reject Highs!! When to Buy??Our prediction in stocks was 100% on point yesterday! We wrote that stocks would have resistance at highs. At the open, the Kovach Momentum indicator (short term momentum) was flat, suggesting that there was little or no momentum at all. To break through to new highs, we require a nice burst. In the absence of momentum, ATH's act as a wall, which the price will swiftly reject. That's exactly what happened. Some of our traders were able to take advantage of this making serious profits off this rejection. The S&P 500 crossed the entire range, finally piercing through 3825. It finally found some support at 3810, which has now solidified its utility as a technical level in addition to a Fibonacci level. Expect stocks to take a breather here. The Kovach OBV has turned, registering the bear momentum. This is likely to continue, though we should see a bit of a retracement at current levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Stocks Back to Highs! Will they Breakout??Stocks had a little flash crash that was immediately bought back up. Currently, the S&P is sitting at highs. After a crash like that it was lucky to get bought back to highs let alone break out again. The Kovach OBV has run out of steam and is flat at current levels. This is not a divergence quite yet, but it does suggest stocks should at least range a bit before another breakout. It could go either way at this point. Watch if the S&P tests and rejects highs at 3867. If it keeps rejecting highs, it will constitute a bearish signal. If we are able to breakout, 3887 will provide resistance and is our next target. Yesterday, 3792 provided beautiful support and it is no accident that this is one of our significant levels. It is a Fibonacci level and a technical level. Watch for it to provide support again if we have another dump
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
3
Stocks Ranging Before Another BreakoutStocks are ranging between 3825 and 3867. These are both levels identified by us, in addition to the ranging. Since it is Monday, we are unlikely to see any significant moves, so anticipate the ranging to continue, but we will know more details towards the open. The next target is 3887. We should easily hit this with another burst of momentum. If we retrace, we have some options for support from Fibonacci levels below at 3811, 3800 (also a psychological level), and 3792, which coincides with a technical level. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has recently flat-lined, confirming the ranging behavior.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Reject Highs. What's Next?As we told you yesterday in the reports, stocks retraced to 3825. This is a strong level of support. Both Kovach Momentum indicators are solidly bearish, leading us to think the pendulum may swing back soon. Additionally there is a cluster of green triangles on the Kovach Reversals indicating that we are seeing some candlestick reversal patterns. If we do see a bounce, the S&P will likely feel out the range between 3825 and 3867. If we are wrong watch for 3811, 3800, and 3792 to provide support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stonks Make New Highs!! What's Next??As you all are undoubtedly aware, stocks made new highs yesterday. They met resistance exactly at 3856, the level we called out for weeks. Finally they inched past this level to 3867, where they are currently facing resistance. Almost certainly they will break out higher. They could range to feel out this new price territory first, however, so don't get too excited. The S&P is at highs, so jumping into a long trade would definitely be FOMO. It is certainly possible that we could retrace to 3825. The Kovach OBV is very strong, so we are in buy on dip mode. Nested Fibonacci levels give us a price target of 3887, and then 3935.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
S&P Bull Wedge Forming?Stocks bounced pretty hard off lower levels, but are still having issues making new highs. The level 3758 provided support as we said it would. We blasted through the next level 3792, which provided little resistance. It will provide support now. We should expect more resistance at all time highs. It will take a lot of momentum to break through and establish new highs. However we do appear to be in the midst of forming a bull wedge pattern, so chances are stocks are bottling up for a breakout. Consider dips as buying opportunities to accumulate a position before the breakout. The next target is 3856.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy