Different lines, different storiesI have drawn two different support lines (I name it "higher" and "lower" support). One regards the monthly closed as the low point of the support line and another one regards the monthly low as the low point of the support line.
The higher support line is clearly broken and is retesting (breakout n retest) while the lower support line still holds and has provided short term upsides momentum.
Obviously two different support line give out two different sceneries. The higher support line suggests we are already in downtrend since the support is broken; The lower support line suggests we are still in uptrend. While two stories entailed by two different verisions of support lines are contradictory, it suggests a high probability of consolidation in the next few months such that the index will fluctuate between two lines. It implies the current index 12304 is the local high which provides us an opportunity to short targeting the lower support line.
Equity
2/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
SORRY I RAN OUT OF TIME, I ONLY HAD a minute to go and I would have had to start from scratch as TV tools dont edit. Sorry!
US500 longEquity rally due to systematic buying and HF short covering. Short interest has halved from
the Q4 highs for EU equities, but is still elevated in the US. Macro HFs and CTAs have turned
outright long equities, and their exposure is close to 12m highs, yet still below average. Long
short funds have also reduced short positions, but their net exposure remains low too. Risk
control funds’ exposure has increased only modestly and remains depressed by historical
standards. So there is room left for more systematic/HF buying. In contrast, mutual funds
remain long cash and have dumped equities in recent months. As a result, their equity beta is
close to the lows. Similarly, the bid from retail investors to equities has waned, with US
households turning outright sellers of stocks. ©Barclays Equity Research
$ARRY POTENTIAL LONG FROM £18Array Technologies Inc: Install the world's premier solar tracker easily, affordably and quickly in more places. Minimize environmental impact with reduced earthwork activities and grading costs.
$ARRY has been up trending since weeks, now testing support again.
Today's FED meeting will give us a clear vision on equities future, this setup is only valid if FED remains dovish.
2/20/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/20/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
Buy DISH after the financial reportIdea: Stabilization after long fall
Technical:
- Bottom of side trend. SL < 13
- Correction to top of side trend. SL < 16.26
Fundamental:
- Growth stock class
- Pro: Growing gross margin
- Pro: RoE is growing, but it can be related to growing debt to equity
- Pro: P/E small (TODO: How to check P/E in the sector without Gurufucus)
- Con: Growing debt to equity and higher then 1
Entering long in equity derivatives - mid/short-term. Some of our algorithmic systems are entering long in global equities, mainly in Norway and in the US.
Right now, the mid-term bullish trend is not completely consolidated, so the VaR allocated to each position is extremely slow.
Our systems are entering at market prices with guaranteed trailing stops at 0.3% of our portfolio risk.
If the systems compounds in a near future, they could open new positions at 0.5% of our portfolio risk.
Nevertheless, they will never allocate too much into a long equities strategy, due to they are diversified between leveraged ETFs, A-book CFDs, spot FX, and exchange-traded derivatives.
HINDALCO LONG TRADE 1 HOURHello TradingView community and my followers, please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments, thank you very much and here we go.
.
HINDALCO
1 hour : It has taken the liquidity from major high.
*Wait for the opportunity in lower timeframe (5 min) and we could see downside movement.
THANK YOU !!!!
TATA Chemical Selling Area--------------------------------------DISCLIMER--------------------------------------------------
* All the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only.
* This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis .
* This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures , options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security.
* Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.
Entry for selling area 1045
SL will be 1082 (37-38 Point)
Target will be 927 (108 Point) / 890 (155 Point) / 808 (236 Point)
Risk and Reward will be 1.6
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We are not a financial advisor and you should not construe any information discussed herein to constitute investment advice
This only for study purpose.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thank you
Trading Cafe 24
🟨 Ned Davis - 10 Day Advance/Decline On Thrusday an important momentum thrust indicator gave a buy signal with NYSE advancing stocks leading declining stocks by better than 1.91 to 1 over the last 10 trading sessions.
The Thrust has been backtested by NDR (Ned Davis) and we can see very impressive statistics.
I have developed an indicator for this and it is available in my profile. Here is the link too:
Double Bottom Setup on NAS100, Target at 13,600The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart.
The heavily tech-weighted NASDAQ 100 Index (NAS100) is in a double bottom chart pattern setup. The Index sustained heavy declines in 2022. However, during the period October 2022 and December 2022, NAS100 held support around the 10,400 to 10,800 price zone. Initial resistance, or the middle of the W or Double Bottom pattern, is at the 12,000 price level. Pattern completion will be when the Index hits 13,600. This view will be negated if NAS100 declines below 10,400.
Technical Indicators
The technical indicators corroborates this view. NAS100’s Supertrend indicator recently turned to buy-mode on the Daily close on January 9th, 2023. This was supported by a positive crossover on the 75 Day Simple Moving Average a couple days later. The Awesome Oscillator has been showing positive momentum from January 4th 2023 while the Index’s RSI is above 50 and trending higher.
The intra-day trend following indicators of the NAS100 also display uptrends in the 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour time frames. Short to medium term support is seen around the 11,170 price level.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 10,400 and a target of 13,600. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.90.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
At the time of writing, I have exposure to NAS100.
CRWD (Multi-Support Bounce)CRWD is currently retesting a key support area between ($90.94 - $102.08) for the second time since its last touch back on June, July, and August 2020. This touch /bounce of support is also in confluence with a 3rd touch of the support area within a massive falling wedge that began to form after CRWD reached all time highs November 2021. In addition to this information, CRWD is also forming a smaller falling wedge on the lower time frames adding more confirmation to a bounce from this area. On the monthly chart, CRWD is creating smaller monthly candles with volume showing a decline along with these decreasing in size. Note: There are two GAPs on the daily to be filled. One between ($99.78 - $102.54) and the other between ($125.52 - $136.31).
Trade Idea:
For an early ENTRY wait for a break and hold of the current resistance area between ($98.70 - $100.63) after the break of $99.78. TARGET the next resistance area between ($108.94 - $112.07).
For a safer entry with added confirmation of a trend change. First allow the break of the resistance area between ($98.70 - $100.63) then wait for a retest/reject of the next swing high around $107.44 - 108.46 or maybe even the next resistance area between ($108.94 - $112.07). After this reject allow for CRWD’s price action to make its way back down to retest the previous resistance area to ensure that it has turned into support and wait confirmation to enter.
Being that this is analysis applies to the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts, this setup could be used to make short term swing trades or long term LEAPs, depending on your chosen targets.
Me personally, I would make short term trades on the way up but my ultimate target is CRWD making its way back up to the resistance line/zone of the larger falling wedge, maybe even filling the big GAP zone between ($125.52 - $136.31)
Wherever you choose to enter, please manage risk accordingly and choose your stop loss wisely.
equity to gdp at extremesquarterly momo is bearish in spy, and equity to gdp ratio is at or near a vertex, or local minimum. if you look at the volume based oscillations there is mixed indication. if you anchor vwap at the breakout level jan 2014 you can see were sitting right on the top band exploring the idea of a monthly higher low. if that breaks things like equity/gdp, market cap/gdp, the buffet indicator (aggregate value or price to share to gdp) will need to converge more bearishly on the price. if we confirm weekly trend reversal then ill be much more confident in an spx broader recovery and maybe all time highs, but if we head toward 52 week lows i expect equity over gdp to test 1999 highs, and spy to test corona highs. its not unthinkable that spy is at 500 soon, but its also not impossible that we see 300 first. this shows that valuations are completely detatched from fundamentals, and thats not necessarily bullish or bearish but instead shows why things have been unravelling for a little more than a year. im sure a lot of that is coronavirus, and im sure a lot of it is just prices trending toward equillibrium.
$VIX closing in on lower part of trendCOPY paste from elsewhere
Let's talk $VIX again
Different #VIX views:
1 Weekly hasn't closed above grey lines
Long term uptrend
Daily WEAK
2
In symmetrical triangle
Bottom part of trend is likely 2b tested
RSI still positive
IMO would reduce longs @ low end & see how it plays
$SPX #SPX #stocks
AMZN LONG expectation Instrument: AMZN
Optimum technical indicator: OBV EMA 20
Current signal: LONG
Technical indicator win-rate: 47%
Days for backtesting: 2220
Timeframe for testing: 1D
Forecast day price: 89,8700
Enter point: 90,000
Take-profit: 94,000
Current stop-loss: 86,6913
Multiple for stop-loss strategy ATR(14): 1,1
Average trades per month with optimum technical indicator: 3
Average time for 1 trade with optimum technical indicator: 7
Average profit per 1 trade: 1,76%
Projected annual return w/o leverage: 30,2%
Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 97%
Technical analysis recommendations:
Long: 36%
Short: 59%
Neutral: 5%
Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, Equity based on backtesting optimization algorithm. Instant analysis of 3.2K technical strategies