Equity
TATA Chemical Selling Area--------------------------------------DISCLIMER--------------------------------------------------
* All the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only.
* This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis .
* This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures , options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security.
* Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.
Entry for selling area 1045
SL will be 1082 (37-38 Point)
Target will be 927 (108 Point) / 890 (155 Point) / 808 (236 Point)
Risk and Reward will be 1.6
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We are not a financial advisor and you should not construe any information discussed herein to constitute investment advice
This only for study purpose.
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Trading Cafe 24
🟨 Ned Davis - 10 Day Advance/Decline On Thrusday an important momentum thrust indicator gave a buy signal with NYSE advancing stocks leading declining stocks by better than 1.91 to 1 over the last 10 trading sessions.
The Thrust has been backtested by NDR (Ned Davis) and we can see very impressive statistics.
I have developed an indicator for this and it is available in my profile. Here is the link too:
Double Bottom Setup on NAS100, Target at 13,600The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart.
The heavily tech-weighted NASDAQ 100 Index (NAS100) is in a double bottom chart pattern setup. The Index sustained heavy declines in 2022. However, during the period October 2022 and December 2022, NAS100 held support around the 10,400 to 10,800 price zone. Initial resistance, or the middle of the W or Double Bottom pattern, is at the 12,000 price level. Pattern completion will be when the Index hits 13,600. This view will be negated if NAS100 declines below 10,400.
Technical Indicators
The technical indicators corroborates this view. NAS100’s Supertrend indicator recently turned to buy-mode on the Daily close on January 9th, 2023. This was supported by a positive crossover on the 75 Day Simple Moving Average a couple days later. The Awesome Oscillator has been showing positive momentum from January 4th 2023 while the Index’s RSI is above 50 and trending higher.
The intra-day trend following indicators of the NAS100 also display uptrends in the 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour time frames. Short to medium term support is seen around the 11,170 price level.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 10,400 and a target of 13,600. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.90.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
At the time of writing, I have exposure to NAS100.
CRWD (Multi-Support Bounce)CRWD is currently retesting a key support area between ($90.94 - $102.08) for the second time since its last touch back on June, July, and August 2020. This touch /bounce of support is also in confluence with a 3rd touch of the support area within a massive falling wedge that began to form after CRWD reached all time highs November 2021. In addition to this information, CRWD is also forming a smaller falling wedge on the lower time frames adding more confirmation to a bounce from this area. On the monthly chart, CRWD is creating smaller monthly candles with volume showing a decline along with these decreasing in size. Note: There are two GAPs on the daily to be filled. One between ($99.78 - $102.54) and the other between ($125.52 - $136.31).
Trade Idea:
For an early ENTRY wait for a break and hold of the current resistance area between ($98.70 - $100.63) after the break of $99.78. TARGET the next resistance area between ($108.94 - $112.07).
For a safer entry with added confirmation of a trend change. First allow the break of the resistance area between ($98.70 - $100.63) then wait for a retest/reject of the next swing high around $107.44 - 108.46 or maybe even the next resistance area between ($108.94 - $112.07). After this reject allow for CRWD’s price action to make its way back down to retest the previous resistance area to ensure that it has turned into support and wait confirmation to enter.
Being that this is analysis applies to the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts, this setup could be used to make short term swing trades or long term LEAPs, depending on your chosen targets.
Me personally, I would make short term trades on the way up but my ultimate target is CRWD making its way back up to the resistance line/zone of the larger falling wedge, maybe even filling the big GAP zone between ($125.52 - $136.31)
Wherever you choose to enter, please manage risk accordingly and choose your stop loss wisely.
equity to gdp at extremesquarterly momo is bearish in spy, and equity to gdp ratio is at or near a vertex, or local minimum. if you look at the volume based oscillations there is mixed indication. if you anchor vwap at the breakout level jan 2014 you can see were sitting right on the top band exploring the idea of a monthly higher low. if that breaks things like equity/gdp, market cap/gdp, the buffet indicator (aggregate value or price to share to gdp) will need to converge more bearishly on the price. if we confirm weekly trend reversal then ill be much more confident in an spx broader recovery and maybe all time highs, but if we head toward 52 week lows i expect equity over gdp to test 1999 highs, and spy to test corona highs. its not unthinkable that spy is at 500 soon, but its also not impossible that we see 300 first. this shows that valuations are completely detatched from fundamentals, and thats not necessarily bullish or bearish but instead shows why things have been unravelling for a little more than a year. im sure a lot of that is coronavirus, and im sure a lot of it is just prices trending toward equillibrium.
$VIX closing in on lower part of trendCOPY paste from elsewhere
Let's talk $VIX again
Different #VIX views:
1 Weekly hasn't closed above grey lines
Long term uptrend
Daily WEAK
2
In symmetrical triangle
Bottom part of trend is likely 2b tested
RSI still positive
IMO would reduce longs @ low end & see how it plays
$SPX #SPX #stocks
AMZN LONG expectation Instrument: AMZN
Optimum technical indicator: OBV EMA 20
Current signal: LONG
Technical indicator win-rate: 47%
Days for backtesting: 2220
Timeframe for testing: 1D
Forecast day price: 89,8700
Enter point: 90,000
Take-profit: 94,000
Current stop-loss: 86,6913
Multiple for stop-loss strategy ATR(14): 1,1
Average trades per month with optimum technical indicator: 3
Average time for 1 trade with optimum technical indicator: 7
Average profit per 1 trade: 1,76%
Projected annual return w/o leverage: 30,2%
Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 97%
Technical analysis recommendations:
Long: 36%
Short: 59%
Neutral: 5%
Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, Equity based on backtesting optimization algorithm. Instant analysis of 3.2K technical strategies
$VIX close to bottom part of rangeHard 2b bear, yet so much NEG DATA
Doesn't make sense, does it?😄
$VIX Long Trend being threatened?
$TNX & 2Yr #yield hovering, higher lows
Getting weirder
US #Dollar $DXY @ level we called few months ago
Things about to get interesting!
#stocks #crypto #gold #silver #bonds
$DJI leading the pack & Bear close to be done🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Not sure how this was missed!😱
$DJI looks VERY VERY VERY good
Went FULL BULL late Sept/early Oct
Mid Nov went neutral to short term bear
Mid December turned cautious bull
NOW
GOOD signs that September was BOTTOM!
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This is daily & weekly
Inverse head & shoulder pattern = 1 of the best bottom forming patterns
IF right shoulder forms here = HUGE
We've spoken on light blue box area many times
Weekly $DJIA still looks GREAT
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BONUS
$DJI monthly almost gave up BUT HELD
Did trade below the avg's but fought back
NO Bearish moving avg crossover
$DJIA movement can buy more time
Maybe year or 2
RSI looks ok
$DIA $UDOW $SDOW #stocks
$NDX means risk coming to playCopy post & continuation from posts not done here
Letting trades sit for moment
Called #risk coming, $NDX vs $DJI
#NDX almost 4x the performance today
NOT SAYING it's "over" but risk reward = GREAT #Bullish
For Friday volume was GOOD
Overall buying coming in last few days
Still like value but have lots of $TQQQ
#stocks
Hard to post all we write here, sorry!
$NDX is DO or DIE time!🚨🚨🚨
LAST LINES for $NDX
#NDX Triple Bottom daily, you see it?
MACD & RSI look ok
1 of 2 LONG TERM
Daily broken
Weekly Jeopardy
Monthly have rest of January, IMPORTANT
$QQQ $VXN #QQQ #VXN #NASDAQ100
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Hard to post all the info we provide
Been trading $TQQQ $SQQQ puts & buy them outright on top of all the longs in individual stocks for longer term holds
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Back in Puts, Sold $TQQQ 16's, high 70's this morning for 1 week hold, like risk reward
Equity market outlook - January 2023Purpose
This analysis is meant to provide a long-term outlook for equity markets.
I also use this to support my data-driven, long-term investment decisions. Sharing this with the public helps me avoid one of the most common mistakes investors make in the market - missing the forest for the trees.
Table of contents
Central banks policy
Economic growth outlook
Earnings growth outlook
Liquidity in the financial system
Summary
Central banks policy
Central banks around the world are still tightening monetary policy which is a headwind for economic growth - see the section below.
Tight monetary policy means there will be potentially more pressure on 10Y real yields - if inflation will be persistent.
There has been a strong correlation between 10Y RE and S&P 500 Forward P/E since 2018. Tight monetary policy + persistent inflation = lower Forward P/E = higher pressure on S&P 500.
What has already been embedded into the price? Eurodollar futures term structure can help answer this question. The market expects rate cuts in September 2023. This would support a higher P/E, but it would also mean that something has been broken on the market. The shape of the curve suggests that the market expects rather hard landing than soft landing.
No one knows for sure what FED will do in the future, but if they follow the path outlined by the eurodollar futures market then we are near the bottom of forward P/E. In that context, the cheapest stocks are in the S&P 600 index = small cap index. Forward P/E is 12.5. Their lowest value was during the GFC - just below 10. The most expensive is S&P 500, with a forward P/E of 16.7.
Economic growth
Central banks' policy leads economic growth / contraction that can be measured by CLI Diffusion Index:
The index suggests we should not expect positive stock indices YoY growth yet. What's more important, it says a high volatility period might be around the corner.
However, the National Financial Condition Index has already been elevated, so lots of depression fears have already been discounted.
Earnings growth outlook
I use the Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index, BBB US Corporate Yield, WTI price, and ISM New Orders less ISM Customer Inventories to measure the impact of current conditions on future corporate earnings.
As a result, I get an indicator that tends to lead stock indices YoY changes, especially Russell 2000 - because it is the index that is the most sensitive to real economy changes.
We should not expect earnings to grow in that kind of environment.
Liquidity in the financial system
I use three indicators to measure liquidity. I normalized the readings to z-scores - just to look at them from the same perspective.
1. FED Balance sheet less Reverse Repo (Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements) less TGA (U.S. Treasury General Account): there is still plenty of money flowing in the financial markets despite ongoing QT
2. Top of the ES futures order book (the number of contracts in buy orders and sell orders): despite the end of the year period, the liquidity (on average) is just fine. No need to worry about air pockets right now.
3. Finra margin debt - the deleveraging is ongoing. $292B has been removed from investors' margin accounts so far, but there is still plenty of money borrowed from brokers - we're at levels last seen in 2018.
Summary
Forward P/E trough might be just around the corner, but central banks policy still does not support growth. It can be seen on the CLI Diffusion Index.
On the other hand, tight financial conditions should soon impact corporate earnings.
In that kind of environment - where EPS should not be rising and P/E not falling - selling the rip and buying the dip strategy might benefit more than just buy&hold.
I'll wait with my long-term investments.
The unknown obvious: equity controlIt's easy to get a mili a year if you trade 100M account, that'll be 1% a year. A lil bit harder but still easy af to get a mili of you have 10M capital, that'll be 10% a year.
That's how many of "skilled" and famous market participants earn dem money. You might say, "Wait, but that's really not a lot, markets can give much more for these capitals".
Yes but given what they have it's all they can do. They been running very shitty bots for decades, they don't really understand how the market works & how to operate. It's especially widespread in cryptos, a lot of people got rich by accident and now they tryna run a business xD
Anyways, there's a tool that helps dem all to get that 10%/y for investors money, a very obvious thing that is called equity control.
Look at the chart here, is this an equity chart of some1 who've bought TSLA stock during IPO or is it price chart of TSLA stock?
If you think deeper, you don't really care about the price of an asset, you care about your equity. If you buy an asset and then look at your account equity after a while, these two charts will be the same. Every strategy can be viewed as a response modifier, it takes an asset chart, for example, IBM stock, and transform it into a different equity chart, with the ultimate goal of having constant always rising equity chart. Market is fractal, the same principles propagate through all the resolutions, they also propagate to your equity chart.
How can you affect an asset chart? You can buy or sell, 2 actions.
How can you affect equity chart? You can reduce size (down to zero) or increase size, 2 actions.
So what these "skilled" and famous participants do, they stop sending they orders to the real market when a shitty bot/trader/manager starts to loose money, but continue trading on a simulator. When this entity starts to earn money again, it gets "connected" to the real market again. How do they define earning/loosing money? They apply the same strategy/quantitative method they use on asset charts. It could be an SMA, I won't be surprised.
Thing is, you can use the same concept in the right way, you can apply a good method on your equity chart to boost the performance in certain times.
DOW - Short OpportunityA double top pattern was formed and the stock crashed and now price has retraced back to the resistance level, giving us another opportunity to ride the waves down. Near-term short signal has also appeared. Price failed to break above 200 MA, showing bearish sentiments.
Entry: 49.77
Stop Loss: 53.6
Take-Profit Target: 43.95
LULU - Short OpportunityTechnical Analysis:
A bearish head and shoulder pattern has emerged and a short signal appeared. A break below 273.6 would be a clear confirmation of long term downtrend.
Fundamental Catalyst:
LULU inventories increased 85% in Q3 2022 compared to Q3 2021. With over 60% of their revenue coming from retail, LULU will continue to face immense competition from e-commerce sellers of athleisure wear that offer equally good quality apparels but at more affordable prices. The recession will likely hit the company hard. LULU has been underperforming in the retail sector index.
Will observe the price action for the next few days / weeks and update when there is an entry opportunity.
NASDAQ:LULU
SocGen (GLE.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart of the French company Société Générale S.A. (GLE.pa). Société Générale S.A., colloquially known in English as SocGen is a French-based multinational financial services company. Société Générale is France's third largest bank by total assets after BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole. It is also the sixth largest bank in Europe and the world's eighteenth. It is considered a systemically important bank by the Financial Stability Board. The Triangle broke through the support line on 02/12/2022. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 14 days towards 21.785 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 24.400 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Societe Generale SA agreed to merge large parts of its equities business with AllianceBernstein, intensifying the French bank’s bid to eclipse BNP Paribas SA in share trading. he Paris-based bank and AllianceBernstein will unite their cash equities trading and research units in a joint venture. SocGen will hold 51% and have the option in five years to buy the whole business, which will be run out of London under the Bernstein name.
The venture signals ambitions to take on BNP Paribas’ strengthened equities offer after the rival French bank took full control of its trading unit Exane and added businesses from retreating rivals.
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