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KotakBank gearing up for a recoveryKotak Bank has been taking a beating for last 3 months, and I think it's about time that it started attracting some big investments again. My view on this stock is bullish right now, and we can expect the move to realise in next 2-3 months, i.e. May 1(around the time of their next financial report). Kotak is a fundamentally strong bank, that has generated consistent revenues and even better profit margins in last couple of years. It's a good value stock that has been neutralised since it last tried breaking through it's all time high price in October 2021. It has recently jumped back up from a pretty solid supply zone, and to my eyes, it's giving all the right signals for a bullish recovery. Rationale: Strong rejection from the supply zone, at a much higher price than the last reversal. Price responding well to fib-levels, taking support at .786 retracement level. A sharp spike in long term RSI & ADX levels, slow Stochastic starting to rise Price forming a bullish Gartley pattern Long Setup: CMP: ~1750 Entry levels: Wait for retest, ideal entry should be around 1720, aggressive buyers can start accumulating already. Buyers may look to average their price until 1700. Stop Loss Levels: Low risk tolerance -> 1680-1660, High risk tolerance -> 1620 Target Levels: 1800 - 1850, long range target 1900-2000(3 month horizon) Potential upside: 15% Potential downside: 7%
NSE:KOTAKBANKLong
by sudoMode
1
Buy Gold and holdNice entry yesterday on gold at $1790 for me, I took the day trading profits at $1810 but have re-entered today after a nice close yesterday. Stop at around $1780. The way I see it, inflation has peaked and the dollar will sell off the rest of the year. That's great for gold as a hedge and with the fed taking a more measured approach rather than ultra hawkish thats good for equities as well. Normally we would expect gold to not do so well if equities are pumping. I don't see equities moving rapidly up though more a measured grinding slowly rise with ongoing worries from the fed about inflation until they eventually take out ATH's again. That should prove good for gold as a nice hedge and I expect we will see $2000 again for gold. Nice rising triangle here on the charts to for those into TA and a lovely buy below the 200 daily moving average. All in all a good enough trade here to go long on gold and hold. Leave a like if you agree
GLong
by breakoutfakeout
S&P500 - Big Correction Incoming 📉Taking a look at the SPX Daily chart.🍿 We've drawn out 3 dip + rallies to illustrate that a 4th dip might be on the way. ⬇️ After being rejected at 4000, we can see the path down to 3300-3400 looks increasingly more likely. 📉 This combined with an expected/rumored earnings slump & lackluster Q4 for companies...🥶 We've also thrown on the US Equity Gaps indicator to help confirm this thought process. Credit card debt at record levels, thousands being laid off, basically dead real estate market...not much reason to be bullish rolling into 2023. 🐻 -TucciNomics Chief Overlord
SP:SPXShort
by QuantVue
A robotic buy signal! Is it also reasonable by price action?Equity curve trading is not so hot topic these days, but there are traders who are profitable using it's techniques! I'm using EC trading to smooth my overall equity curve. These two blue line are calculated just like Ichi cloud lines but they use average of hl2 instead of median! In long-term 20 years back-tests breaking this kind of cloud reached a satisfactory level of profitability but note that it's not always activated in all pairs. Considering rules for activation and deactivation this trading setup reached around 30 percent win rate, which makes it profitable regarding to it's good R to R ratio. NOTE: indicator based strategies are not always active and do not work in all instruments.
Long
by AliSignals
3
AAPL , Advanced Trade Setup - Apple Spread Option AnalysisWe are entering a long position in AAPL using option calls. There are many ways you can go long for this play, but we strongly feel AAPL will hit around $170, so a pure call is our play. For those who want a safer route we suggest either just getting the stock on spot, or enter into spread options. Our strike is $155 with a Dec. 16th expiration. Though we do also like $160 strike too for a cheaper price, with the same expiration. This is a swing trade, and with the current market conditions this entry seems at a perfect point. With September - the worst trading month of the year - ending, we like the place that AAPL has fallen to. A head of us we have better performing months, coupled with the synthetic push up that usually occurs after Thanksgiving, added with a new iphone released seems positive. This seems it could create extra fuel for an equity that has already had a decent drop, and leveling out. Today we had the SP drop hard, accompanied by Forex, Gold, and Crypto. During this time AAPL rose slightly, so seeming these other markets probably have stopped the fall for now, it looks this could add to the entry time being opportune.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by VirlVideo
3
Correlation between FX and Equities! (Chicken or the Egg?)Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Traders all over the globe are constantly looking for an edge, something that's going to give them an extra indication on market directional movements prior to them unfolding. I know from personal experiences and from chatting people at the firm that many traders lean towards finding correlation between the equities market and the FX market. There are a lot of analysts out there that say the equities market is what moves the FX market, and in return there are a lot of people that say the FX market is what moves the equities market. So, which one is it? Reality is will never know. There have been many of times where the FX market and shows clear indication of direction and then about a day later or a few hours later we have the equities follow suit. For example the RBA's recent decision to hike interest rates by .25% instead of 0.5% sent the Aussie dollar down, but when you move over to the AUS200 or look at General Equities in the ASX, you'll see that they had their biggest day in 2.5 years. Then there are times, and this is more into day trading, where the indices in the equities movements tend to correlate well moving into the FX markets. So there is evidence to support both sides. Not ideal. It goes without saying that correlation between equities and FX is slowly starting to fade as volumes kick up since we are in the technologically advanced era. But, what is or was the correlation and how does it work? The basic theory (aged) is that when equity markets rise, confidence in that specific country grows well, leading to an inflow of funds from foreign investors. Therefore, equities go up, FX value goes up. It's simple supply and demand when you look at it. If the equities are going up and you're a foreign investor and you want to buy into those equities, it creates demand for holding, let's say, the US dollar if I wanted to buy into the S&P 500. On the flip side, when the equity markets are falling. Then confidence falters, causing investors to convert their invested funds back to their own currencies outside of that country. This is a general theory and I don't recommend basing any of your trading decisions on this, because if you actually have a look at the charts and the correlation, you'll notice that recently it's not been too hot. While you do get a general directional bias, one tends to move before the other and they tend to be quite random in which one goes first. If you have the ability or the skill to be able to work out when something is correlating and when something isn't, then for sure I think you'll be able to find an edge in the market trading some kind of correlation between equities and FX. One correlation I have seen to be quiet useful in recent times is the S&P 500 And the Nikkei. Although in the Asian session the Nikkei is open in the S&P 500 isn't. Usually you see the S&P move and the Nikkei follow suit. Keep an eye on that correlation and tell me if you find any patterns. As a whole, trading correlations can give you an edge in the market. It can provide you with valuable information when it comes to trading, whether you are trading FX or trading Equities. But it's not as simple as it seems. It will take more diving and understanding the markets on a deeper level to know when their correlating and to know when to ignore. I hope you guys have enjoyed this article. If so, please give us a like leave and a comment. It does help the post a fair bit and I'll see you next week for some more content. Happy Trading! -Jordon Mellor
SP:SPXEducation
by TradeThePool
SPY will bottom before FED ends rate hikes:see contrarian viewLast August 27 I already gave the bearish scenario wherein the FED continues even into a recession. The downsides were 350, 320 & 280 IF SPY breaks below 400 & 380. Today, Friday, SPY seems to be doing an oversold bounce. So let us assume the contrarian role against the market’s extreme pessimism. What if the market sentiment changes & the market suddenly realizes that the FED is just pretending to be very hawkish just to kill that big rally from June bottom of 362? From June low, SPY rallied a little more than 61.8% Fibonacci to be stopped by the ma200 at 431. From there it reversed down exactly to Fib 0.618 at 3900. This bullish view will take into account certain things: *The duty of the FED is not only price stability & full employment but also to fund the government. Rising interest rates will blow up the govt debt. *Inflation has gone down in commodities like gasoline, food, durable goods. Rents & wages are more sticky. Fuel prices will go down if Iran deal push through or if Saudi agrees to increase production. The US, unlike EU, has enough supply of natural gas. *A FED pause is still possible in 4Q2022 or early 2023 if inflation & the economy really slows down due to demand destruction, earnings recession, lay-offs & rising unemployment. FED may keep rates steady for a while & then continues with less hawkish hikes. If rate hike is overdone, rate cuts & QE will return quickly to save jobs, the economy & control government debt. *This may be enough for sentiment to change & for buyers to come in pushing this rebound even higher. Let us just assume that the June low of 362 is already the bottom & SPY is doing an ABC wave up. Using Fib extensions, the possible levels are 460, 476 (double top), 500 & 530. Volatility will remain high with recession fears & geopolitical uncertainties not going away soon. See the wedge down & the wedge up. FADING THE FED IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE but fundamentally less probable. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYLong
by xtremerider8
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash. *Equities and Cryptos are getting smashed as DXY and US Treasuries rally higher. Quite simply this is a response to global recessionary fears (amplified by last week's disappointing global economic data) and a commitment by the Fed to continue FFR hikes for the rest of the year. It seems as though investors are preparing for more hawkishness from Jerome Powell's upcoming speech in Jackson Hole on 08/26; which leaves tremendous surprise upside to markets if he gives any hints of dovishness. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST 08/23 ; US Q2 Final GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27.* Price is currently trending down at $4138 and is still technically hanging on to $4175 support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers for two consecutive sessions; Price is currently trading in the second largest medium-term supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4323 (this coincides with the 200 MA + the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 51 with no signs of trough formation and is technically testing 52.68 support; the next support is the uptrend line from 01/27/22 which coincides with 38 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 18.32 support with no sign of trough formation. MACD finally crossed over bearish today after 56 days being bullish and is currently trending down at 74; the next support (minor) is at 55.35. ADX is currently trending down at 29 as Price continues to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here it will have to close above $4175 resistance to flip it back to support before it can attempt to retest $4254 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two b2b closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
NAS100 eyeing trend resistance and potential supply A big session ahead as we start to position for NFP and next weeks US CPI - good news seems to be good news for stocks, and bad news is good news too, as we see a weaker USD and further inverted yield curves' - an almost goldilocks scenario! Technically, the index is making all the right moves, and we see the momentum indicators favoring a test of the downtrend resistance at 13,340. A closing break of trend resistance and the momentum could take the index into 13,600. After a 20% rally from the 16 June lows it wouldn't be hard to think that the prospect of sellers into the downtrend is elevated and the trend may find supply easy to find - so one to watch for the scalpers. So depending on whether your trading momentum, trend or scalping resistance the set-up has great meaning.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
1
Russell 2000: historical drawdowns point to more downside riskThe Russell 2000 's drawdown from its peak has been important (-26%), but not as severe as those seen during the dot-com bubble in 2002, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 at the start of 2020, when the US small-cap index plummeted by more than 40%. To reverse the current downtrend of the Russell 2000 , the underlying causes must also be reversed, which are primarily rising inflation and the need to raise interest rates. US ECONOMY: MACRO OVERVIEW Inflation is now widespread and is not solely due to increases in energy prices, such as oil and natural gas . The United States still has a very tight labour market that requires a rebalancing of supply and demand, to avoid further wage pressures. There are currently nearly two job openings for every unemployed American ( FRED:JTSJOL / FRED:UNEMPLOY ) and the labor-force participation rate has not recovered to pre-Covid levels. The result is a strong pressure on salary growth , which is currently at 11% year-on-year. The combination of higher energy prices and wage pressures raises labour input costs for US firms. Those who are unable to pass on higher costs to their customers will see their profit margins dwindle dangerously. In addition, since the Fed is firmly committed to raising interest rates , higher borrowing costs represent an additional drag on the growth outlook of small-cap firms. RUSSELL 2000 index: outlook The market believes that a recession will cause the Federal Reserve to slow its rate hikes or even reverse its policy stance. However, the Fed's focus remains solely on inflation, as the labour market remains close to full employment. To rebalance the labour market, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates aggressively. The short/medium term outlook on the Russell 2000 index remains bearish until the Fed signals a change, which is unlikely unless there is a major recession. A 40% drop from the peak would be a good entry point for opportunistic buyers to step in, indicating a wide bullish positioning clean-up. Such a level of drawdown corresponds to a Russell 2000 index level of 1,450.
TVC:RUT
by Capitalcom
1
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. *Money markets continue struggling to find a bottom amidst high and rising global inflation. CPI report comes out tomorrow (07/13) at 830am (EST) , market consensus is around 8.8% (8.6%-8.9% range); if it comes in on the high end or higher, a sell-off will likely ensue. The next FOMC meeting is on 07/26-07/27 and the next FFR rate hike will be released in the Fed statement at 2pm (EST) on 07/27. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated today that he thinks that a 50-75bps rate hike this month is "reasonable" but cautioned against going too far and "inadvertently breaking something". The San Francisco Federal Reserve published research last month showing that demand is only 1/3 responsible for inflation and that supply chain disruptions are responsible for about 1/2 of inflation; this implies that the Fed can only do so much to ring in inflation and that a lot of it depends on Russia's attack on Ukraine and China's 'Zero Covid Policy'. Until inflation is tamed, it's reasonable to expect for more recessionary fears to mount heading into the second half of the year, especially with the risk of the global geopolitical situation (and therefore supply chains) getting worse.* Price is currently trending down at $3800 after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance and is technically still testing the uptrend line from 06/16/22 as support. Volume remains Moderate and has favored sellers for two consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3734, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 44 with no signs of trough formation after forming a Double Top just below 53 resistance, the next support is at 38. Stochastic remains bearish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing 76 support as it falls out of the 'bullish autobahn zone'. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak as it tests the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance a little above -44 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways and is beginning to form a soft trough at 20 as Price is trending back down, this is mildly bearish; if ADX is able to bounce here as Price continues to break down, this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down out of the uptrend line from 06/16/22, the next likely target would be a retest of $3707 minor support (and potentially lower). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Bullish NASDAQ forecast for the month of May!?!NASDAQ Market Forecast and Prediction for the rest of 2022 >>>Bullish Month in May driven by Oversold market conditions and Earnings? >>>Rejection coming at the 50/100 Daily SMA? >>>More elongated 2018/2019 correction pattern repeating? >>>Bullish Q3 & Q4 2022 ahead? Every investor should ask themselves, are we in store for the usually 20-30% correction? Or are we in store for a market meltdown, similar to the Mortgage Backed Security collapse of 2007-2009? Or the Dot Com bubble during in 2001-2002? > It is clear that the current situation and correction is more serious, than those in recent history. It has more drivers to the downside than the last 3 minor corrections. > It is also clear that the global economy isn't collapsing with like in 2008. In that recession, $10.2 Trillion alone was wiped from the American economy alone. That's not including the hit to Global Wealth, resulting in the elimination of many more Trillions. > It is further clear, current tech equities are not as overvalued as in the Dot Com bubble. I cannot deny that there has been an increasing number of Unicorns and IPOs entering the market. The majority of which have already had their values demolished. One only has to look at the recent SPACs, to see the smack these "Vision over Reality" companies have received from the market. >>> I believe we are more likely in a 20-30% correction, rather than a meltdown of 50-70%. Long term bullish and assets do well in high inflation environments.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
0
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
2
Everyday with one Equity Intraday Profitable Idea:-Dr LalpathlaTrend Analysis is arguably the most important area of technical analysis and is key to determining the overall direction of a security. Trends are based on the principle of higher highs, higher lows (for an uptrend) and lower highs, lower lows (for a downtrend). Dr.Lal path lab is now in short term bullish mode in corrective wave pattern. and stands in Resistance area. Expecting bullish momentum, when it will cross 2850 with volume. Please initiate trade after breakout and retesting. Dr all path lab Buy above 2856. Target 2870,2880,2890,2915 Positional Target :(BTST):- 2950,3000,3050
NSE:LALPATHLABLong
by biplab86