A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL): Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL...
Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports. People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected. A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I call 'Islamo-Chinaization': Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad. China for...
Already vulnerable, Turkey’s economy now faces massive earthquake recovery costs: After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. Just six months earlier, in June 2022, the economy was on the brink: Turkey was facing a potential balance of payments crisis, meaning it would be unable to redeem...
Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬: “We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to...
Some people have been pointing out to me that the Turkish stock market has been hitting all time highs consistently through 2021. However, this is only apparent when looking at Borsa Istanbul Index in Turkish Lira. Once you look at it in term of USD, it becomes quite clear that the opposite is true. The Turkish stock market has been hitting new lows consistently....
Great trade that was again with a take profit hit at exactly 15,7 level as per our previous idea : News: Turkish inflation has reached its highest level since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power almost two decades ago as the president’s contentious economic management sparks a surge in prices. The country’s consumer price index rose 36 per cent year on year...
After the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the measures that the Turkish government would take to improve their currency slippage, over $1 billion was sold to trade for the Turkish lira which caused the USDTRY to drop over 20% making the greatest recovery in any currency in over 40 years. Understanding how the forex markets operate, the USDTRY...
Turkish Lira snapped a five-day rally yesterday, challenging government assurances that it’s on a more stable footing after measures were introduced a week ago to stem its collapse. After the Epic rebound last week the worries seem to be returning. As you can see on the chart, what used to be 3 Liras to a Euro became, 6 then 9 and now 12...after stopping first...
This week has seen the USD/Turkish Lira exchange rate drop from a high of 18.25 TL per Dollar to a close at 11 TL per Dollar. In my previous idea published in January 2021. The concepts I laid out in that idea are still valid. The curve I drew still holds intact. RSI is still rising in the parallel channel. The recent spike has seen RSI reach even higher value...
Political and economical conditions are settled for a hyperinflation cycle in Turkey. Rampant inflation, panic hoarding of real assets, limits in banks, negative reserves excluding swaps, and crazy politicians. Compare it to the argentinian hyperinflation cycle, the patterns are the same. Short Turkish Lyra,we could see a small retrace here, but the cycle has...
Technical support levels shown where each time it advances. Fibs are extension of last range and low.
🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan...
📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the...
Buyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the...
📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks...
📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year: EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any...
Swings and position building We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and...
All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long...