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Week of August 11 - NQ/VIX/CL/10yrWowza, what a week we just had! Sunday night the Yen carry trade started to unwind in a magnificent fashion. We came in on Monday morning with the NDX down 1k handles, and the VIX at 60. Most of this has corrected itself as NQ actually closed the week +60 handles - but there is something more sinister at play I fear. This week is going to be a HUGE DEAL for the weekly charts - as I think we are setting up into the final parabolic move into the election. The Nasdaq opened the week down 1k handles on Monday morning, and the dip was properly bought. The 17,340 area is a BIG deal as it marks a quarterly and weekly low. Where we closed on Friday 8/2 had me REALLY bullish coming into last week - but the damage that was created on the charts from Sunday nights sell-off cant be ignored. The REALLY SNEAKY part here- it that we now have bear flags on the daily and h4 charts for NQ - and they closed us up here just to fill the opening weekly gap and volume imbalance. We could see them spike this another 400 handles from here - and it wouldn't invalidate the sell case. Bottom line - I can't buy until I see them run those HUGE equal lows on the quarterly/weekly charts down at 17,340. Once we do that, I will be looking to get VERY LARGE in longs to ~24k area for the final blow off move on NQ. The VIX had quite the week - it was up ~ 60 when we came into the cash open on Monday morning - the highest weekly level since the pandemic panic spike. That said, the weekly chart has completely broken out - and I want to view this as a backtest. There is a small weekly FVG that will form on Monday for the VIX to drop and fill - but I am viewing this as an area I want to see the VIX hold - as I believe they will drop the indexes from here for one more flush - just before the final long. Crude Oil actually had a REALLY nice week last week. The lows were set Monday morning, and oil never looked back. I am looking for oil to continue it march up to the 79 area for the backtest. We need to reject 79 with vigor and star the march lower for oil as the global economy slips into recession - as oil and the bond market are already aware. The 10yr bounced at a very predictable place and has now begun its backtest. I am looking for the 10yr to sweep last weeks highs, before resuming its march lower as we head towards autumn and into a global recession. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ sweep the lows of last week - this is a MASSIVE level on the quarterly and weekly charts - there is TONS of liquidity down there that Market Makers can use to sweep and order pair long for the final parabolic leg higher. I want to see the 10yr bounce to sweep last weeks highs - and then continue to make fresh lows. We took out December lows last week. I want to see oil continue it march higher to the 79 level to complete the weekly structure backtest - then drop due to weakening global macro. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Week of August 4- NQ/YM//VIX/CL/10yrWhat a great fresh week of selling we just had! Last week I was looking for a slight bounce in NQ before running to our 18.5k target area - but they wanted to run is down there faster. We have been writing about this 18.5k area for MONTHS - I'm just glad we finally got the entry we wanted. To be clear - I think the next move higher in markets will cement highs that we won't see again for decades, or possibly our lifetimes. But there is a LOT of upside between here and there Nasdaq - I am so bullish on the NDX here that it basically hurts. this 18.5k area has been a long held liquidity pool I wanted to see get visited so I could load the boat on longs. The weekly charts looks great - this was a textbook measured pullback, and I love the wall of worry that has been re-erected on the market. We got a garden-variety 12% pullback - and now we have bears on parade - and everyone is selling out of their tech stocks to go bid recession stocks like Utilities and Consumer Staples - at the EXACT wrong time. Investor psychology is truly a thing of beauty, and it's all playing out in the charts - exactly how we have been expecting. FROM HERE - I am expecting nATH on NDX. I am looking for ~ 22k on the NDX which is 18% higher from where we are now. The Dow I am much more bearish on. I think we need to see some cleanup work done to the downside on the DJI , and then it can really get going. I believe that tech will lead out of this correction into the final parabolic move higher - but when the DJI bottoms and starts to move higher - the entire market will broaden out. The current Draw on Liquidity for DJI is coming from the quarterly chart - we need to revisit the quarterly IRL while sweeping the equal lows down ~ 38k. Once that is complete, I am expecting nATH on the DJI as well. One thing we have noticed is that DJI and NDX tend to move inversely of each other - but when you average the 2 indexes together - you get the SPX. You could see NDX +3% - and the DJI -2%, and SPX would be flat - which is why we tend to focus on NDX/DJI as they offer cleaner directional plays. I think moving over the next 2 months or so, you will see DJI sell off, which will help power the NDX rally - and then once the DJI bottoms - everything everywhere will rally into the top . The main driver to this market melt-up is going to be based on 3 things - but its all technicals. VIX, Oil, and the 10yr. The VIX did a very VERY interesting move on Friday. The VIX was +60% on the day mid-Friday, but after we swept that weekly level the VIX started to retreat. I expect the VIX to possibly make one more sweep higher to run the stops ~ 31 - but that would be a HUGE buying oppty. WTI Crude Oil is on the verge of REALLY cracking to the downside. This is yet another indication of the weakening global economy - and affirmation that inflation is actually rolling over. The 10yr is always ahead of the game - the bond market is the smartest dudes at the table. We have been long bonds since the April highs and we are just now getting back into an area where we could see a sweep & bounce of the 10yr relatively soon. I want to see the 10yr REALLY smash the December Lows , and then I will be looking for a backtest. To be clear - I am looking for higher stocks, bonds, Precious Metals, and lower oil as we head into the Election. I believe that whatever highs we print (for stocks) wont be seen again for decades. I'm looking for the largest bear market in history to begin in Q1 of 2025 - and its all driven by global debt. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ start the next and final leg up for the final top of 20-30%. I want to see the low of the week put in by lunch on Tuesday, and expansion higher starts soon. I Want to see The DJI continue to sell off towards 38k. I want to see the 10yr and oil continue to march lower and take out the December Lows I also want to see Oil continue to march lower due to weakening global macro. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by Baero-Trading
Week of July 28 - NDX/YM/CL/10yrThe past 2 weeks of selling in the NDX has been exactly what I wanted to see on the weekly charts. We have been talking about a Tech sell off for a while- into a bottom ~ 18.5k where we can position for the BIG & FINAL Long entry - and we almost got it this week. The Nasdaq sold off this week finally filling the quarterly FVG that we have been looking for. From HERE, we are going to print a new bearish FVG on the weekly chart that I want us to backtest & respect. The weekly chart has given us our step 1 of 3 in the form of displacement lower - now we need to see step 2 via respecting the overhead FVG that will form . The DOW however - gave us an entirely different view. The Dow has a quarterly FVG ~ 7% lower from here that I want to see visited. Couple that with the equal lows on the quarterly and weekly chart at 37,881 - that to me is the BIG draw on liquidity that we are hunting. SO FAR - the h4 has rejected the 50% level and this breaker block - I want to see follow through next week on DJI sell pressure. Crude Oil has been a super tough trade lately. I am still bullish short term into a top ~ 84 so we can setup the big sell - but the tape has been just so so tough lately. Its fun to observe oil but at this point, I am about to throw in the towel on commodity trading. Indexes have been FAR smoother and better respect my models. That said - what oil IS SAYING for those that are willing to listen - is that inflation is rolling over, and the global economy is weakening. The 10yr has continued its march lower. This is driven by the same macro forces that are taking Oil lower - a weakening global economy So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ start the next up leg here - I'm looking for a 6% pop or so into the weekly IRL. This will setup for a weekly TS sell to our final bottom target ~ 18.5k. I Want to see The DJI continue to sell off. I want to see the 10yr and oil continue to march lower Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by Baero-Trading
2
Week of July 21 - NDX/YM/RUT/CL/BTC/Real Estate The past 2 weeks were what a lot of perma-bulls were citing as "market rotation" - when I honestly think it was nothing more than a short squeeze in small caps and on the Dow. This weeks post will be a lengthy one as I will cover many different asset classes - as it looks as though the market is setting up for a broad sell of. The Nasdaq came perfectly down into our decision zone - and now we need to wait to see what the next move is. From here - I could see NQ going either way - and it would make total sense. There might also be a more mechanical game being played here. If they can hold the NDX steady or bid - then they can dump the rest of the market - and the net carnage on the SPX will be somewhat muted. The DJI and the Small Cap Russel 2000 - both had some gnarly weekly reversal candles last week. The DJI and RUT both have very similar setups - so I will be covering the DJI, The Dow now has a really large weekly rejection block formed with that last weekly candle - and it looks like they still want to respect that weekly trendline. I still maintain that the DOL for the DJI is those yearly lows ~2500 pts lower Crude Oil rolled contracts to Sept last week - so it morphed the charts a little bit. From HERE - I want to see oil retrace to 77 - and then pop to take out the Sept Contract highs ~ 84.4 The 10yr continues its march lower - its a slow grind but its doing what we expect. When you have giant liquid instruments like the bond market or FX - things tend to move slow - but they are somewhat reliable. Bitcoin has now complete its full retrace on the weekly chart. From HERE - I want to see it drop to take out the June lows. Real Estate also has a chart similar to the small caps. I think we just saw a massive short squeeze occur - just in time for a broad based sell off across the market. Everyone and their dog is 100% on board with the David Hunter Melt-Up call , and I can see why. But I think this rally we saw in Small caps was more of a short covering squeeze, rather than a broadening of the market. Add to the fact that Japan is now openly and directly intervening in Yen markets - this puts massive pressure on the carry-trade. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ pick a direction and show me confirmation via h4 structure. Half of me is bullish NDX just as it will be used as a mop to soak up capitol that is getting rinsed out of Small caps and the DJI. I Want to see The DJI and RUT continue to sell off I want to see Oil drop to 77 and respect it, providing an 8% bounce. IF we simply break down from here (and rightfully so - the global economy is weakening) - then we will see it via the weekly chart market structure shift. I want to see YM, Real Estate, Bitcoin, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Baero-Trading
EURUSD WEEKLY BULLISH BREAKOUT, LTF BEARISH RETRACEMENT!!The weekly timeframe has a beautiful bullish break-out, meaning that we are overall Bullish. We have two weekly bullish FVGs - One in Premium at 1.08709 (We would not want to Buy on the basis of this FVG since it is in Premium) However we could have a LTF reaction. - Another beautiful FVG in discount at 1.08032 ( This is where we will be looking for timeframe alignment to go Long). Beautiful area to look for Longs!!! Before price reaches 1.08032, we will be looking for shorts to trade the retracement. Beautiful Week Ahead of us!!! Trade, Repeat!!!
by Kay_Master
Week of July 14 NQ/10Y/CL/GC/Real EstateLast week, we were reminded what selling looks like on indexes. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin tend to lead the technical moves, and I believe we are headed for a 10% correction here soon on NDX. NDX led the market by making its top earlier than the rest - but everything is poised for a nice drop from here. My contention is that this will be the final wash-out on indexes before the final big long swing into the secular top of the market - which will come before the November Elections. Nasdaq finally gave us some selling that we can lean into last week. We got a h4 Market Structure Shift (MSS) and Friday gave us the perfect back-test of the h4 sell structure. The first logical target for NQ is going to be the July Lows. From there - I want to see a small bounce and then resume the proper down move to around 18.5k area. The Draw on liquidity is that quarterly IRL that we need to visit. If we can crack the 19k mark on NQ, it will offer a 10% drop from ATH - which is the perfect amount to scare all the villagers, we will see bears on parade - right as its time to long the index for the final move to ~25k. 10yr Rates continued to fall this week - which is what is jucing the markets. That being said, I'm still looking for the 10yr to march down to ~3.8% before any kind of meaningful bounce. This is because the economy is starting to roll over, inflation is coming down - and the bond market knows it. Oil was floppy last week, but I still am looking for that 85/86 level to sell. Oil has been a tough trade up here as the tape has been rather heavy. Oil wants to drop due to weakening global economic forces - but they keep pumping it up with Hurricane premium etc - I have no trade in oil until after we sweep the 85/86 area and can begin the proper big sell program. Gold popped this week but I think it was just a pop into a h4 IRL that is a selling opportunity. I want to see Gold sweep those Equal Lows down around 2304, clean up some inefficiencies ~ 2230, then resume its uptrend. Real Estate is about to start its larger secular downturn here - and we are already seeing it in places like Austin, Phoenix, and Florida. What is wild about Real Estate is how insanely clean the charts are. If we start with the quarterly chart - it is a textbook example of a bubble chart Having this HTF Bias, enables me to look for weekly swing trade setups, as I believe real estate is about to take a 50% or greater dump. I think the prices of MOST assets (homes/planes/boats/Rolex Watches) are headed back to 2013 levels. Homes were bought en masse by wall street, and a lot of the firms are upside down on the properties as they sit empty. A combination of higher rates, and a flood of supply - all timed with an economic recession - is going to leave real estate as a smoking crater. The weekly - we are entering an area up here which I believe will morph out to a great selling opportunity - as we make a weekly Turtle Soup sell entry. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ drop back to a weekly IRL level and run the h4/weekly TS for potential long entries ~ 19.8k. We should get a small bounce down there, but the ultimate goal of this drawdown should be ~ 18.5k I want to see oil take out the 85/86 level and then reverse hard - this will confirm the bond market deflationary stance as the global economy weakens. I am still waiting for gold to sweep the 2304 equal lows for a long entry. I want to see YM, Real Estate, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Week of July 7 NQ/10Y/CL/GCA new batch of fresh record highs to start Q3! Last week, we were looking for longs and we got them to TP at ATH for a solid 500 handle move in NQ. From HERE - it gets a lot trickier, but lets start to walk through what we are looking for. Nasdaq To ME - the governing HTF Draw on Liquidity (DOL) is still the fresh FVG that was created on the quarterly chart. We saw back in Jan (Q1) and Apr (Q2) - they attacked these IRLs in fast and furious fashion early in the quarter. With us now at ATH on NQ - I can't long anything up here. THIS WEEK - I am looking for shorts to take NQ back to the 19.7k area. This would give us a h4 and weekly long Turtle Soup setup for those brave enough - but I am still looking at that Quarterly chart which has a draw down to th 19k area. I'm looking for NQ shorts this week. Hopefully we get something really aggressive and they dump NQ 5% and we can start looking for the HTF draw down at 18.5k - but lets keep focused and take things 1 week at a time. 10yr Rates continued to fall this week - which is what is jucing the markets. That being said, I'm still looking for the 10yr to march down to ~3.8% before any kind of meaningful bounce. This is because the economy is starting to roll over, inflation is coming down - and the bond market knows it. Oil had quite the week! We have a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that is headed for Houston by Monday - so I expect a lot of this to be Hurricane premium. I am STILL looking for a move lower in oil - we just need to sweep the 85/85 area - hopefully this week. Once Oil finally does roll over, this will confirm the bond markets stance of lower inflation and energy prices driven by a weakening global economy. Gold had a steller week. I don't have any real clear bias on a weekly chart from here - but I would REALLY like to see the 2304 lows swept before the big move higher. There is a TON of liquidity down there (stops) that I can't imagine the Market Makers really want to leave intact before the real move higher. Baero's Take - We are truly seeing some historic stuff in markets right now, and the market is insanely bifurcated. Mag 7: +48% YTD S&P 493: +7.5% Russell: just went red for the year again Between the Cyclical performers (metals and energy are late stage performers) and the massive narrowing of the market - we are way over due for a 5-10% correction. I think once we get our well-deserved correction - there will be one final swing long entry to run us into the EOQ. I plan on being flat most of swing stock positions ahead of the election, as I think the greatest bear market in the history of finance - will come in Q4 into 2025. I fully expect that the highs we print on indexes this year - won't be revisited for decades - if ever. The madness will go on - until it doesn't. Nobody rings a bell at the top - which is why we take it week by week. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ drop back to a weekly IRL level and run the h4/weekly TS for potential long entries ~ 19.8k. This is the EXACT same type of setup we saw last Monday. I want to see oil take out the 85/86 level and then reverse hard - this will confirm the bond market deflationary stance as the global economy weakens. I am still waiting for gold to sweep the 2304 equal lows for a long entry. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Week of June 30 NQ/10Y/CL/GCWeek of June 24 NQ/10Y/CL/GC I'm back! After a much needed vacation and a break from the charts at ATH - I am BACK on TradingView with a fresh weekly forecast. This week will mark the start of Q3 - which is really important as we need to check back to reference the quarterly charts to see if there is any unfinished business we left behind. I am expecting Q3 to mark the final high in a parabolic fashion - that we wont see again in our lifetimes. I will be discussing the Nasdaq NQ1! and the Dow YM1! as these 2 components when averaged together - constitute the SPX. Nasdaq has a Quarterly IRL that we need to visit and rebalance. We saw a decent sell-off at the start of Jan and April for the start of Q1 and Q2 - I am expecting somewhat similar into July for Q3. SPX and the NDX are the only things that actually have a quarterly IRL to go revisit from here - so a slight pullback in tech and then the market is ready to run. Weekly I wanna see this weeks high or possibly ATH swept to start a sell program to fill this qIRL. Downside targets could be anywhere between 18-18.6k. We will know more once we see where it bottoms. 10yr backed up a little this week - but we are continuing our march lower. Bonds are SLOW moving - but they are clean. Rates are headed lower because the global economy is weakening - and the bond market knows that. Stocks don't tend to ask WHY rates are dropping - at least not at first. OIl has gone nowhere - we are the same price as April and October 23. I have no weekly context on oil so there is no trade for me in there - for now. Gold was flat on the week - but it looks like the final move higher is coming soon. From HERE - I want to see us flush back to the 2250 area - there is a confluence down there on the quarterly and weekly charts of a volume imbalance - and it also happens to be the quarterly CE. Timing of this would make sense too - as precious metals and energy are typically the LAST sectors to rally in the final stage of a bull-market. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I am looking for indexes to start a pullback this week led by NQ. Any pullback I expect to be fast and sharp - so that nobody can capitalize on it. Set your alerts - I am looking for ~ 18.5k on NQ1! I want to see Gold sweep the 2304 level, the continue to nATH. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:MNQU2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Week of May 19 - NDX/VIX/10y/OilNew record highs on indexes!! The DJI broker 40k, and CME_MINI:NQ1! itself broke to nATH as well. CBOT_MINI:YM1! never actually made a nATH, but cash DJ:DJI did - so I wan waiting for that to resolve itself. The good news is that CME_MINI:NQ1! has a really clean weekly chart here, so I will be focusing on that this week instead of the Dow. I think we are entering the final blow-off phase of the markets where we could see a final up leg that takes us vertical to 50k on the Dow, 7k on SPX, and 22k on NDX. That said - I still see Q4 as being super weak, but the market wants to go higher and it will get its wish with the VIX and bond market helping along - but I will cover that later. Nasdaq Last week, we made a nATH which is great. From HERE - I want to see a pullback on CME_MINI:NQ1! to around $18k. This is a weekly FVG as well as ~50% pullback from the ATH. This will also satisfy our ERL -> IRL move. Once we take that out, we can see a weekly Fib projection of 19.6k - and at that point I think they would just muscle this thing to 20k. VIX Our poor baby TVC:VIX - what have they done to you!? Friday was OPEX so I was expecting to see them pin price somewhere as they drained the VIX dry - and thats exactly what they did. VIX nLOY - and we almost swept the 2023 lows which is a 4 year low. The TRAP in all of this - is that I do NOT want to be looking for Longs with a VIX that is at multi-year lows. I want the VIX to pop to help pressure indexes for a normal pullback. The faster the pullback and the higher the VIX - the sooner we can get on with this final leg of a 40 year bull market. Bonds I have been watching the 10yr note really closely as it looks like rates are going to backtest higher before resuming lower. A slight backup in rates, along with a VIX pop, SHOULD give us the needed pressure on indexes to get a proper pullback to buy. The longer term picture is still much lower for rates from here as the economy continues to weaken. Stocks won't care WHY rates are dropping - at least not for a while. So long as we have a low-ish VIX, and bonds are bid - the indexes (especially tech) will FLY higher. Oil Oil FINALLY gave us some weekly context we can start leaning against. Oil is starting to march lower and this week was just the pullback into a weekly IRL level. From HERE, I want to see Oil continue to march lower on the weekly. This will continue to ease inflation - which will drop rates - which will bid bonds - which will allow indexes to FLY. Everything is starting to align for a final leg up in a parabolic - exactly what David Hunter has been talking about. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I am looking for indexes to start a pullback this week led by NQ. Any pullback I expect to be fast and sharp - so that nobody can capitalize on it. Set your alerts - I am looking for ~ 18k on NQ1! I want to see the 10yr sweep the highs of last week, and then continue to march lower. This added pressure from the Bond market will weight on indexes. I want to see oil start a march lower from here. The next weekly target for me is down around 75.6 Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Week of May 12 - AAPL/BTC/DJI/VIX/10yr Last week we had record low volume on indexes as they drifted higher. There as a drought of news to move the market - and the volume was reminiscent of a holiday week. Indexes The DJI went vertical to fill the last weekly imbalance we had that was MOST in the premium of the swing. From HERE - we are at a major deciding point. The weekly chart still is bearish and we need to confirm this was just our back-test. CBOT_MINI:YM1! needs to respect this weekly FVG and starting heading lower confirming this as our "lower high". Wicks above and outside the weekly FVG are permitted - but notice how they closed the weekly candle INSIDE the FVG - this means that the FVG is still being respected. IF we can get confirmation of this being the lower high as set - the next logical targets are the April Lows/LOY. The scam-ridden CME_MINI:NQ1! didn't do much this week but flop around inside a 2% range. I have no clear weekly bias on Nasdaq so I can't really comment too much on it. The best thing I can see is that NASDAQ:AAPL is holding up here, but its ready to drop lower into the gap that was created. Once that happens, the market will go with it. So far, its just a series of lower lows and lower highs. Sectors One thing I want to touch on - is where we are in the cycle. The way we can identify this, is that we can look at typical "late cycle" charts on Energy/Materials/Metals and compare them to the SPX. When you see these sectors rallying - its typically near/at the market tops. Here is chart of $XLB/$XLI/$XLE/$XLP/ When you see Materials/Industrials/Energy/Staples all running up like this - it means that money is moving from things like tech and communication services - and into "safer" sectors. Bitcoin One of my favorite things to look at for a risk-apatite gauge is Bitcoin. Weekly BTC is down by 17%. IF it doesn't bounce from down here and soon - a new bear market will begin. This week will give us CPI/PCE reports mid week that will be the key driver for the next market move. VIX Another concerning thing for bulls is the fact that the VIX is now near its yearly lows, and indexes aren't making ATH. Again - This all smells super trappy as the market is setting up for the move during the mid-week inflation report releases. Interest Rates Rates are rolling over. The 10year continued its march lower this week and is now respecting bearish FVGs which is what we want to see. Half the reason that markets were able to drift higher this past week was due to the rates market being stable. This Bond trade is a longer term swing as I think that rates will crater during the coming recession. So far - the 2/10 spread remains inverted for 2 years now. This is a RECORD duration and depth of yield curve inversion. This spread has a 100% accuracy rate when it comes to predicting recessions. Note the dates in the vertical white bars - once the 2s/10s un-invert - we have a recession 100% of the time. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; We saw YM pop into our MOST premium weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY. Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while. BTC needs to make a stand here - or its going to enter another bear market. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Week of May 5 - DXY/Oil/DJI/NDX/VIX/10yrWhat a WILD week we had! Last week was insanely noisy between the FOMC on Wed, NASDAQ:AAPL earnings on Thursday, and NFP on Friday. This coming week of May 5th offers very little in the way of news catalysts, so it will be great for us TA based traders. So far, all of our weekly objectives have been playing out - and nothing has really changed from my perch here. I am still looking for new lows to come on indexes, but we will get into that later in this thread. The Powell pump candle was reversed completely by the cash close last Wednesday. Thursday night, NASDAQ:AAPL admitted they have slowing sales in China, but its (not as ad as feared) - so they gapped it up 4%. And on Friday - the market rallied on weak job numbers as the job market is softer than expected. Seems legit. CBOT_MINI:YM1! - The Dow behaved REALLY clean this week. You'll notice that all we did, was sweep LAST weeks lows, and return back to the IRL/FVG to reload more shorts. From HERE, I am looking for a weekly IRL to ERL move - with a final objective of LOY. From there we can wait and see where the next ERL to IRL move is. May started last week, so we had a fresh monthly candle that initially had a FVG forming. This index pop over the past 2 days has now filled the monthly chart. Everything on CBOT_MINI:YM1! is really clean here and aligned. We have the monthly that has filled it's monthly FVG, the weekly ran last weeks lows and has returned to IRL (in PREMIUM) to reload for shorts, and the h4 is running up into its 200sma. Looking over at the scammy CME_MINI:NQ1! - its the same setup on the weekly. The Monthly candle filled a FVG that was forming, the weekly returned to a IRL in Premium, and the h4 is running into a 200sma. If you average NQ and YM together- you get SPX. The difference is that they will hold YM steady while the sell NQ - and then rotate. It's really interesting to watch but the net effect of it is that the damage and move done to SPX is minimized this way. When you get a setup like we are seeing here - where both NQ and YM are aligned for sell programs - headed into a quiet week with no news - danger! This just Smells like a strong smell setup to me. Lets talk NASDAQ:AAPL for a minute. ALL they did - was run this thing up into the LAST open gap from Feb. The MegaCap tech stocks are SO large that they tend to behave pretty cleanly with respect to gap fills and the like. To ME - this is a massive bull trap - I have 0% interest in chasing this thing VIX - Now that we have talked about how the indexes are primed for a sell program IMO - lets look at the VIX for any clues we can glean. I will cover the weekly VIX in the next section, but VIX is now filling it's gap it created from a month ago. This is supportive of markets - until it isn't. I am looking for Monday to have a slight pop in markets as the VIX fills its gap - and then they start selling indexes things with vigor Tue-Thur. DXY/10yr/VIX - DXY Pulled back last week - but I still am looking for higher prices on the weekly objective to ~ 107 I am looking for rates to start to ease here as the economy weakens. I have an oversized bond long position on as I think this is the most asymmetric trade in the market currently. Bonds are starting to smell the weakening economy and are moving towards lower rates - the last missing piece is the 2s/10s inversion. This has been the largest and deepest yield inversion - in the history of markets - and it is NOT bullish. If history is any guide, once the 2/10s spread de-inverts - we typically see market crashes (note the dates in red) Oil - WTI got its head kicked in last week, and we are a pivotal level here. If Oil keeps crashing - it is just ANOTHER indicator of the weak economy. I honestly dont have any weekly context on oil at the moment - but the h4 chart shows us running right into the 200sma. The scary part about the weekly chart is how we have displaced lower. Next week will be a big deal to see how we backtest and confirm the breaker lower. Oil could head down to the lower 70s before we can see any appreciable bounce. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; We saw YM pop into our weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY. Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while. Oil MUST make a stand here - and soon. Otherwise I see us trading back into the 70s for monthly levels. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
10
Week of April 28 - DXY/Oil/DJI/10yrLast week we got the YM1! backtest that I wanted on the weekly. We rejected the weekly IRL and now I am looking to take out LOY on the Dow. Dropping to the h4 chart, we can clearly see the market is now primed to drop. I am looking for a sweep of highs to begin the weekly sell program. For those watching - we also got the 50% retrace of SPX on the weekly. DXY - DXY made a ERL move and ended the week in a Doji. I am looking for DXY to continue its assent to the weekly ERL levels. We had another regional Bank Failure on Friday evening (they only fail banks over the weekend) - this should continue to bid DXY. Crude Oil - OIl woke up this week and started to pop late in the week. I am still bullish oil into the 88/90 area. Dropping to the 4hr chart, you can really see what oil wants to reach for. The 200sma is acting as support, and we are continuing to see dips bought. 10yr Yield - We pierced the 4.7% level and immediately rejected it on the 10yr this week. I still believe that yields are peaking here as we march towards a recession. Gold - Gold on the weekly retraced to the 50% level into IRL. From HERE - it could go either way. We saw a displacement and market structure shift on the daily and 4hr charts. If gold stalls out there, we are heading lower. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; We saw YM pop into our weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY. Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while. Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Week of April 21 - DXY/Oil/DJI/10yrNobody will ring a bell at the top. What a great selloff we had last week! I was expecting a pop higher for the sell but they just wanted to pull the rug on bulls early in the week it seems. Pretty much everything got monkey hammered. Indexes and Oil slid while gold held in (for now). The great news is we now have a directional market to trade again - these are MUCH easier to trade compared to the sideways chop that NDX has experienced for the past 2 months. Last week, we saw pretty hard selling across the board and I think this is just the first warning shot of the coming recession. We have been in the largest and longest bull market in history and it feels like we are nearing a tipping point. This week, I will be focusing on the Dow. I have really enjoyed trading the Dow as it has really clean charts compared to NDX. This comes from the fact that the DJI has the 30 largest USA companies in the index which tend to be rather stable from a price standpoint. The added benefit is that there are no tech stocks getting subjugated to gamma squeezes or mania like NVDA or AI related plays. It's nice to have a boring index that trades clean. Dow - Friday during the Asia session - Israel attacked Iran. This spooked markets and go us into our QUARTERLY downside target for the DJI. In fact, DJI was down YTD during the Asia session until the bounced it higher. But what this means for us, is that I am looking for higher targets from HERE on the DJI in the short run. On the Weekly, I would LOVE to see a bounce back higher to 39k area. This will get us into the premium of the entire swing lower, and would allow us to target that FVG living up there at 39.4k. We swept the LOY on DJI - now we need a backtest. The good news is that dropping down to the h4 charts, we can see that we almost have a Market Structrue Shift (MSS) to bullish. The 200sma on the 4hr chart also aligns with our weekly target area - but we could see a nice 1000 point gain in DJI before we turn lower again DXY - DXY formed a weekly Doji. I am expecting last weeks lows to be swept on DXY before it resumes its uptrend. Crude Oil - OIl got absolutely smashed last week. That being said, I still want to see 88 trade on WTI before we roll over. This looks like it was just a pullback to the 200sma area on the 4hr chart. 10yr Yield - We have been waiting for the 10yr to tag our 4.7% level so we can start loading the boat with bonds. Last Tuesday gave us just that opportunity, From here, I am expecting rates to start to drop and in a big way - this will align with the oncoming recession. Gold - Gold closed the week > 2400 but off its ATH. I still want to see Gold come in on the weekly chart, but we need to crack 2340 for that. I have alerts set for Gold but I am not super intent on watching it at these levels. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see DJI trade higher into the the weekly breaker block around 39k. From there I will be scouting for short entries. Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while. Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Long
by Baero-Trading