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ERU

WTI Relative value to G4 currencies: aka Krümels Voodoo chart . So this is an attempt to show my "Relative Value" chart, and why currency spreads can help both identify max/min ranges, and when WTI couples with other G4 currency. Question /Scenario: You own an oil company. You store, buy & sell locally. You have locations in all major countries. You buy in any (G4) currency, but mostly in the currency of the actual sale country. You do not transport, except locally. At the EOD (hour, sec) you need a single number that represents the value in US. Dollar of " ALL " your inventory. What amount is that? What is that value in dollars? Understand that matrix and you understand my Relative Values.. So the basic premise is Dollar is base. Oil is priced in dollars. BUT its value to Dxy changes. If no WTI was bought or sold for two hours.. but Dollar traded and moved.. so would the price of oil. Not tic for tic.. ( remember oil not trading in example ) but when oil did open to trade it would balance to DXY (assuming no other currencies in this pretend market). That spread is the base measurement . Unfortunately it is not as simple as Dollar moves up so oil moves down (or up). Oil is priced and sold in other currencies around the world. So (for example) 100 barrels trade in 70% USD, 30% ERU.. then it would stand to reason that the Value of oil is somewhere Between those two values, but closer to US dollar (in this example). This happens all day long.. but because we have multiple currencies, those spreads are all different. I use the main currencies listed Eur, Dxy, yen, pound. (G4 ). *Read*. Most important.. (where most people have a problem) is oil has it's own fate. . that is to say if some big whale dumps oil, it will move down on that.. and that will not couple with any spread. That is a true value change of oil, and spreads need to be realigned/ calibrated. The problem is TV only gives you (2) two scales. (Left & Right) If the left is raw Dxy no equations, right is raw WTI no equations.. the 2nd, 3rd, etc.. currencies will be off screen. So you must normalize them to fit left scale. I have screwed with this normalization the most. You can't just say x=2, y=10, so I'll just take -8 from y to balance both at 2. Because you removed 80% of Y. The Y wave needs to scale with DXY(over 60min). Dxy down=Pound up (for example) you'll know you have it right when you can align the symmetric Lastly it is a work in progress.. (over 1yr) and I still don't have all answers but it is much better than when I started. Ok... preamble done. Let's add a currency. We will start with Pound for example. (Just because today that is the couple). Oil right -DXY left , no equations. Scaled. Add Pound - normalized Add Yen - normalized Add EUR- normalized Add S&P - normalized* (more on S&P next note) ALL currencies – normalized All - normalized, scaled, and tweaked.. (aka the Tea Leaves ) More on next post... Good Luck! *note & question. If I over explain, if I'm over simple in the steps I use, I use a wrong term, and/or it seems elementary , I apologize. I get A lot of questions.. not everyone is at same level, (most are above me..lol). Also because this is not a system used by many (any?) there is no web page description or known indicator like RSI, Fibs, or MACD to point too.
TVC:USOIL
by BigEz
4
RALLY OR CRASH ? EURJPYI SEE THIS PATTERN BREAKING SOON. MAYBE A FALSE LOWER BREAK AND A RALLY TO 135. OR INDEED ON OUR WAY DOWN. WITH THE WAY THE EURO IS MANIPULATE IT WOULD BE PREVENTED AGAIN, AND SO IF IT DOES HEAD ON DOWN, WE WILL SEE A HUGE AGGRESSIVE REVERSAL OF THAT DIRECTION. HOW MANY TIME MAY IT BE SAVED? JUST MY 2 CENTS GUYS. HIGH TIME FRAMES STRUCTURE INDICATES A POSSIBLE CRASH TO THE 76.00 PRICE ZONE? I WILL WATCH THIS PAIR CLOSELY :0 WOAH! PLEASE COMMENT, WOULD LIKE TO HEAR OPINIONS. LEARN AND PROFIT . PIPS TO ALL THANKS.
by DelorenFX