IPW - a penny energy stock LONGIPW on the 60 minute chart has went 3X since a big beat on earnings and revenue a couple of
weeks ago Price peaked at the 3.4 area in the post earnings move higher had has now faded to
1.9 in a healthy pullback and Fib retracement. The down trend from the pivot high on 5/17
ended with a bottom and a golden cross of moving averages on May 22nd. The all-time high for
was in the range of 8 back in 2022. I see IPW as having as much as 400% upside. I will take
a swing long trade and likely carry it to the next earnings in about 11 weeks. The entry stop loss
will be 1.7 to be raised as the trade progresses.
Erx
ERX a leveraged ETF reflects the energy sector rise LONGERX as shown on the daily chart shows a VWAP band breakout into the mean VWAP
from the lower VWAP lines coupled with a rising momentum on the PMO targeting
72 as the YTD pivot high. Given this is a leverage play in the supertrend shift in a
major sector I see this as a low risk moderate reward potential type of trade
I will take this trade long expecting to reap simple modest unrealized profit.
The stop loss is @ 58.6 while the upside is 10%. Please comment if you need
more details or are requesting a call option setup specifics.
x
ERX Energy is backERX is a leveraged ETF tracking the energy sector. On the 4H chart it has been in a downtrend
since mid-March. IT dropped to the bottom of the high volume area on the long term profile
as well as the lowermost VWAP band. Firday May 12th marked the reversal with buying volume
replacing selling volume and then a significant rise in price in the past week.
On the AI moving moving average indicator, the optimized shorter Hull moving average
(red line) has crossed over the longer EMA moving average ( blue line) as has the price.
I conclude the energy sector is heating up. My new idea on BOIL supports this. I will take
trades with energy in mind and review big oil stocks and natural gas stocks as well as
pipeline and oilfield services stocks.
ERX Energy Leveraged ETF LongERX is a bullish leveraged ETF for the energy sector similar to XLE.
On the 30 minute chart, the supply and demand zones are displayed from
the Luxalgo indicator. The midline between them is the red line which
is confluent with the POC line of the volume profile.
On the prior down trend last week, price got support from that line
and bounced back to the supply zone above.
On the present down trend price broke the line which has now
become resistance. At present it is sitting on the demand zone
and bounced off it into a reversal this morning.
The Zero Lag MACD confirms this with rising K and D Lines crossing
the zero line and the histogram flipping positive.
My long trade is targeting the redline between supply and demand zones
@ $ 60.25 while the stop loss is at the top the demand zone at $ 58.15
From an entry of $ 59.15 this is $ 1.00 of risk for a targeted reward
of $ 1.10 making the R/R essentially 1:1 I see this as a safe long
trade with low risk and low reward.
LNG ( Natural Gas ) Breakout from Cup and Handle LONGThis is a classical chart pattern. The bullish continuation would be
expected to be about $25.00 of upside given the height of the cup.
The short time MAs have crossed the intermediate MA from underneath
in a "Golden Cross" while positive momentum just started on the
squeeze indicator. Fundamentally this makes sense with the
winter heating season and the energy sector the best performing
this year. I will choose a Feb 23 call option 15% above current
price.
ina
ERX Energy Play Head and Shoulders BearishOn the one hour chart, ERX ( triple energy ETF) completed a head and shoulders
and is now downtrending with a crash through the EMA 100 and EMA 200
and now one standard deviation below the VWAP. The Momentum Indicator
shows downside momentum is greater than it has been in recent months.
The inverse ETF called the ERY would be expected to be the inverse of this.
The XLE would be similar but not triple leveraged.
This appears to be setup for a good long term swing short or a put option
expiring in late January or February.
ERX - Direxion Energy Bull.... or rather, "bear".It looks to me like ERX (Direxion Energy Bull 2x ETF) is ironically forming a very bearish outline which seems to coincide with other bearish indicators for oil and equity markets.
What's interesting here is the coexistence of a rising wedge form (highlighted in orange) with what appears to be quite a tidy Elliot wave count.
There is a pretty clear set of 5 major waves dating from August 2021 when the market produced a triple bottom and began to rally.
There may be alternate counts here but I do think they will all arrive at the same conclusion that wave 5 is in.
Since the end of 2021, there is also a set of 5 secondary waves which correspond to the primary wave 4.
Furthermore, this set of secondary waves appears to form a rising wedge which I have highlighted in orange.
Shorting leveraged ETF's is often risky but it does seem that this correlates with other moves taking place on the market.
For instance, EXXON is displaying a rising wedge.
Chevron also seems to be forming a rising wedge after an earnings miss.
These correlate with the rising wedge I describe in this chart and my suspicion that wave counts may also correlate.
Again, I emphasise that shorting leveraged products is risky and as always, do your own research, manage your risk properly and be careful with picking entries.
If you are interested in the market-wide phenomenon I have described here you may be interested in my other recent ideas which all examine aspects of the same phenomenon.
Additionally, I am open to other interpretations & advice on how to count this so comments are welcome. I believe that the rising wedge here adds weight to the view that we have just had Wave 5 in the energy and oil markets and that a correction is en route.
Buy: ERX.AXWatchlist
Price moving out of the downtrend
Price is tracking above the 20MA
Pretty low volume at the moment, could turn very interesting if volume turns up
May see some sideways movements before a break
Watch for the break of 6.5c
Follow on OIL Gas Index with near term target In the last few weeks the OIL and Gas Index has risen even though crude dropped again despite the agreement of major producers to soon start cutting production by 10%.
The gain Friday is encouraging that the rise has further to go. If this is just part of a upward correction a likely target is given. If it quickly starts down again to complete a downward correction the stops I am using are shown on the daily chart. Personally I thing is part of a basing for a major longer term rise given the degree of drop since 2007. (see link for longer term chart).
This is just my opinion. Process your way.
Feedback always appreciated.
Take care. Have a great weekend.
OIL and Gas Index: Close to a bounce? IF this count is correct we could be at a temporary or even possibly a long term bottom. I have two "B " , if the 2nd one (B?) is the correct one then may have more drop to the .84 retreat. Must watch the price action the next couple of weeks for comfirmation. Process you way.
Have a great week.
GUSH Long ideaIf you have been watching oil and the energy sector you've seen quite a decline lately. It could be that the energy sector bottomed 2 days ago. Look at that lower trend line. touched several times and very nice gains after ward. I would be willing to bet the bottom is in for GUSH. I usually like to wait to see the price regain the 10 sma and get above the supporting moving averages. BUT, if your brave. A low risk setup because you can set your stop at the recent low.
Powell and trade war truce may shorten correction $ERX $TQQQAs described in my previous note on the S&P 500, there have been two major market corrections since the end of the Great Recession. They were periods of high volatility and a lot of repricing of stocks for 140 days or more.
In both cases they started with:
1. A complete reset of the daily RSI ( Relative Strength Index below 20)
2. The S&P 500 holds below the 200 day MA
3. The 50bar EMA passes below the 100bar EMA
They end when:
1. The S&P 500 0.54% holds above the 200 day MA
2. The daily RSI holds above 50
3. The 50bar EMA passes above the 100bar EMA
The daily RSI is currently above the trend-line and above 50. The S&P 500 today will open above the 200 day MA and the 50 day EMA should cross above the 100 day EMA within three weeks assuming this new trend continues through Christmas.
When I recently posted on this topic I said "Consumer confidence is high but the only way for this ship to turn around quick is for the Fed to change strategy, that will not happen."
It now looks like it may happen. Additionally, Trump and Xi struck a 90 day trade war truce.
Tech and energy sectors are the most beat up in recent weeks, all of these developments are bullish for these two sectors. Trade opportunities should present them selves in TQQQ and ERX .
USOIL Trend AnalysisIt would appear that the intermediate term trend is going through an ABC correction.
Supply Zone exists in the $53.50-$57 range
Long Term Price Support exists at $54
50% Fibonacci retracement exists at $54
Measured Move exists at $55
Channel Resistance exists at $62
Long(er) Term Price Resistance exists at $63
Short Term trend bearish
I'll go long when I hear "NEW BEAR MARKET FOR OIL?" on the news
GUSH, time to go long? Looking at the chart for GUSH. I am looking for a break above the last high (green dotted line). A move higher should signal a continuation of higher highs and higher lows (red lines). I'll buy with a break above. OIL is looking good and other stocks like RIG and VLO seem to be trending higher. Wait for the break of the green line to confirm, and then set your stop just below it. It must hold.