SPY, Major Warning has been signalled for the stock market. The stock markets have been rattled by a concerning development that historically has been a precursor to increased volatility and economic uncertainty - the uninversion of the yield curve.
In December, long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, reversing the inversion that had been in place. This yield curve uninversion is often viewed as a potential warning sign of an impending recession, as it has preceded the last seven recessions in the United States.
Looking back at past data, the last time the yield curve was uninverted in this manner was in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major market downturn. Prior to that, it uninverted in 2006-2007, shortly before the Great Recession hit in 2008-2009.
While the yield curve uninversion does not guarantee an imminent recession, it has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of increased market volatility and economic slowdown.
Trade safe,
Trader Leo
