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Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels after the rally Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5284-88 (major), 5276, 5259 (major), 5245-48 (major), 5236, 5230, 5219-21 (major), 5213, 5208, 5200-5197 (major), 5191, 5186, 5177, 5168-71 (major), 5163, 5155, 5145 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5295, 5302 (major), 5307 (major), 5313, 5320, 5328 (major), 5338, 5348 (major), 5355, 5363-66 (major), 5380, 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5412, 5428 (major), 5438-42 (major), 5450, 5460-63 (major) Trading Strategy: Choppy Range: Be prepared for potential choppiness within the 5302-5288 range. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies if this pattern persists. Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure that has formed since Thursday. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5284-88, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5259 and 5245-48 (triangle back-test). Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement, and focus on 5307 and potentially 5348 if we get that far. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally. Bull Case Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5307 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5320, 5338, then 5348. Support Holds: As long as 5284-88 holds as support, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if 5307 breaks out, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5284 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 25th, 2024 Federal Reserve Updates: Analysis of the Fed's latest interest rate decision, economic projections, and implications for future monetary policy. Focus on how market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 may have shifted, and the continued focus on inflation data. Inflation and Economic Data: Discussion of the latest CPI figures, job market data, and their potential impact on the Fed's approach to managing inflation. Market Reactions: Examine how global markets have reacted to the Fed's decisions, including equity indices, treasury yields, and the dollar's performance. Global Economic Outlook: Updates from Vanguard on economic expectations, contrasting the U.S. with trends in the Eurozone and U.K. Lessons from Bank Failures: Reflect on the lessons learned from recent stress in regional banks and discuss implications for the financial system's overall stability. Energy Transition: Analysis of the challenges and opportunities in the electrification of energy markets. Stock Market Sentiment: Review market sentiment after the Fed decision and the potential for near-term changes. Remember: The market might be consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5302 (major), 5298, 5286, 5282-79 (major), 5275, 5257, 5246-49 (major), 5236 (major), 5231, 5225, 5218 (major), 5212, 5208 (major), 5203, 5191-94 (major), 5179, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5153-55 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5123-26 (major), 5115, 5108 (major), 5102, 5092, 5077-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5308, 5320 (major), 5331, 5337-39 (major), 5347, 5350-5354 (major), 5362, 5374, 5381, 5385-90 (major), 5400, 5413, 5425-30 (major) Trading Strategy: Support Testing: The market is likely to test key support levels after the rally. Prioritize capital preservation and be watchful for potential bounce plays. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5302 (after retest and reclaim), 5282-79, or the triangle backtest at 5246-49. Avoid aggressive longs if the triangle backtest fails. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally. Bull Case Triangle Backtest Hold: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5246-49 triangle backtest holds. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5282-79 zone, provides a strong entry for a move back towards the 5320 resistance. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5302 after a retracement, creating the potential for further upside moves. Watch for flagging in this zone for potential upside. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5302 and especially below the 5251-47 triangle backtest could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 22nd, 2024 Global Economic Developments: Labor market developments in Germany, housing market indicators in the U.S., the Panama Canal's financial performance, and the global semiconductor industry. Federal Reserve Updates: The impact of the Fed's latest interest rate decision and economic forecasts. Inflation and Jobs: Analysis of the latest job market data and inflation trends, and their implications for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy actions. International Markets: Updates on foreign direct investment in China, German business sentiment, inflation in Japan, and the Australian economy's response to interest rate pressures. Legislative Updates (U.S.): Developments regarding the U.S. spending bill and geopolitical concerns surrounding the CHIPS grant in Arizona. Indian Equity Markets: Analysis of recent movements in the Indian markets, including IT, auto sector news, and performance of the Sensex and Nifty. Corporate News: Stock market reactions to company announcements, such as news from Larsen and Toubro and IDFC FIRST Bank. Outlook on Accenture and other tech stocks. IPO and Stock Market Updates: Discussion of how Reddit's IPO performance may impact the overall market sentiment and encourage other companies to go public. Remember: The market is likely in a price discovery phase. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after breakout Weekly Volatility Risk: High (potentially elevated due to price discovery post-breakout) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5275-80 (major), 5266-68, 5260, 5251 (major), 5246, 5236, 5231, 5221-26 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5196, 5189-91 (major) ,5178, 5169 (major), 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5116, 5109, 5103 (major), 5095, 5091, 5079-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5285, 5295-5300 (major), 5315 (major), 5330 (major), 5339, 5345, 5352 5360, 5369, 5376-81 (major), 5389, 5405, 5423, 5428-32 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery Mode Post-Breakout Caution: The parabolic rally yesterday makes today a less favorable environment for aggressive trading. Exercise caution, as setups are likely to be less reliable. Prioritize capital preservation. Long Opportunities: Watch for potential long entries at 5275-80 or after a dip and reclaim (to 5273 or 5268). Target a retest of the 5295 resistance if we haven't tagged it yet. The backtest of the triangle breakout zone at 5251-46 is interesting but carries more risk. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the breakout. Bull Case Breakout Continuation: The triangle breakout, as long as the 5251-47 zone holds, targets a move towards 5295-5300, then 5315 and potentially up to 5330. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5275 after a bullish leg, creating the potential for further upside moves. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5251-47 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 21st, 2024 Fed Rate Decision: Fed holds rates steady and projects three cuts this year. March 2024 Market Outlook: Analysts provide insights and forecasts on the global economy, equities, interest rates, and upcoming financial events. Corporate Earnings Updates: Companies like Borregaard ASA and Affimed N.V. release their financial reports, detailing performance and future guidance. Bank of America Reporting Schedule: Investors have access to the financial reporting dates for Bank of America in 2024. AI and Market Sentiment Some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally and the extent to which it reflects actual revenue growth. Global Economic Developments: Central banks in Switzerland and Russia make interest rate adjustments, impacting currency markets. Financial Trends for 2024: Focus on sustainable investing, digital assets, AI and automation, cybersecurity, and financial literacy. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery after the breakout. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.17 - 03.22Last Week : Last Sunday we discussed that failing over HTF Edge usually can bring in weakness and start transacting back through lower areas towards the lower Edge but also mentioned that we were in potential 5150 - 5250 +/- balance with 5204.25 - 5199.75 area being a temp mean which told us to be careful expecting too much continuation lower just yet. Monday gave a test of VAH and Key Support under it which held and gave a push back through the Edge for a consolidation above it. From there to end the week we needed to either accept over inside/over VAL of New range or we could see price return back to the Edge. Thursday we got failure at VAL with a return back to the Edge and Friday to finish off the week we found selling at the Edge top and were able to get through the Edge to close the week at VAH area. This Week : This week we are currently inside 5204 - 5154 Range, we are under the Edge and have more Supply built up above us this time around. Yes we are still in this 5250 - 5150 balance which may continue holding for now but we do have more Supply above us now and we are seeing more signs of trend this time on 4hr TF which we weren't seeing last week. IF we continue holding under the Edge that will mean continued weakness and if we either build up enough supply over VAH or more sell volume comes in to take it out it could start the move towards lower VAL. We have Fed on Wednesday and bigger market moving events Thursday/Friday so the question is will we hold first couple days and try to balance more in Current Range or do we try to make a move early in the week and then do clean up after ? As mentioned last week usually failures or u turns at Key HTF Edges will send the price opposite way towards previous VAH / VAL and Edge destinations, last week it was sketchy because of how things were set up but this week we may actually get it. We still have short covering every time we make a move lower which means still have to be careful and take it level to level or range at time because it may take its time as so far we have kind of been getting stair case down moves with holds/pull backs which traps more new buyers, but continuation lower is something to watch for. For us to attempt a move at the highs and new HTF Ranges Value again we would need to continue holding above the Mean/VAH area and accept back inside the Edge with a good push over 5219-15 area, for now Supply is trapped above and may start selling out lower. Levels to Watch : Current Intrarange Resistance 5188.25 - 84.50 // Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 IF Accepts in Edge would need to get through 5219.75 - 15.75 to attempt higher targets. Current Intrarange Support 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25 Under could see continuation through the Mean targeting 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 This would be our VAL area and Key Support for any continuation towards the lower Edge would be 5112.50 - 5107.50
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Extremely cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: Extremely High (FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5236, 5230, 5220-17 (major), 5212, 5209 (major), 5202, 5196, 5192 (major), 5184, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5155-57 (major), 5147, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5117, 5100-03 (major), 5091, 5075-80 (major), 5069, 5056 (major), 5050, 5043 (major), 5038, 5032, 5020-25 (major), 5014, 5010 (major), 5000, 4995 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5246-49 (major), 5258, 5265, 5276-80 (major), 5295-5300 (major), 5308 (major), 5317, 5323 (major), 5330, 5338, 5352, 5358, 5365-70 (major), 5384, 5395, 5406-11 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Extreme Caution FOMC Volatility: The FOMC decision is the dominant factor today. Expect unpredictable market swings and heightened volatility. Prioritize capital preservation above all else. Triangle Pattern: The triangle pattern with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5184 remains in play. FOMC is likely to trigger a breakout or breakdown. Long Opportunities: (High Risk) FOMC-related dips present potential long opportunities, but only with extremely cautious sizing. Consider targeting 5220-17 first, and even then, only if it shows a failed breakdown and reclaim. In a severe melt-down scenario, watch for failed breakdown setups around major supports. Short Opportunities: (High Risk) Counter-trend shorting on FOMC days is extremely risky. If considering shorts, the 5295-5300 zone, after a strong move up, could be one potential area. Focus on Reactions: Don't predict FOMC outcomes, focus on reacting to price action post-decision. Bull Case Triangle Breakout: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50 could lead to targets at 5258, 5276-80, and then the 5295-300 zone. Be wary of traps on any strong moves post-FOMC. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5184 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise extreme caution and patience in a fast-moving market. News: Top Stories for March 20th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, updated economic projections, and any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts and how data will determine those decisions. Market Volatility: Expect unpredictable market swings around the FOMC decision, with the potential for large gains or losses. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators, the latest CPI figures, and concerns about recession risks will be closely watched alongside the Fed's announcements and commentary. Intel Investment Boost: Intel receives a major investment, boosting the company and its stock. EU Regulatory Vote Delayed: The EU delays the vote on a nature restoration law due to concerns and farmer protests. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause extreme market volatility, whipsaws are likely. Be extremely adaptable, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk today above all else.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5209, 5203 (major), 5191, 5182-77 (major support/triangle), 5171, 5165, 5157-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5124-26 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5095 (major), 5087, 5083 (major), 5076 (major), 5072, 5066, 5060, 5055 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5215-20 (major), 5230, 5236 (major), 5246-50 (major - triangle resistance), 5257, 5264, 5270, 5275-77 (major), 5283, 5295-5300 (major), 5306, 5313 (major), 5326, 5333, 5340, 5355, 5362-66 (major), 5370, 5377, 5385, 5395 (major), 5400-5405 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Focus Holding Pattern: The market might be on hold until the FOMC announcement, so pre-announcement moves may lack conviction. Triangle Trading: The triangle setup with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5182-77 defines the range for today. Profit-taking at each end of the range is advisable. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5203 (especially if it's a major support test). Below that, interest in longs arises at the triangle support (5182-77). Avoid aggressive longs below 5182-77 with more substantial sell-offs possible. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. FOMC Volatility: Expect increased volatility during and after the FOMC announcement. Bull Case Triangle Support: Bulls need to defend the triangle support at 5182-77. Holding above this level allows for a potential retest of 5245-50 resistance within the triangle. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5215-20 and above 5202/5209 support suggests potential for an upside move. Breakout Potential: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50, likely post-FOMC, could lead to targets at 5275-77 and then the 5295-5300 zone. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5182-77 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Cascading Sell-off: If 5202 support fails, a deeper test of the triangle support is possible, potentially leading to a more severe correction. News: Top Stories for March 19th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, dot plot projections, and any hints on the timing of potential rate cuts Banking Concerns: Economists warn of a potential new banking crisis triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's BTFP program and potential geopolitical disruptions to credit markets. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was impressive, while the Conference Board's leading economic index signals a potential slowdown. Market Performance: Market volatility could spike around the FOMC decision. Long-term investors are focused on the Fed's interest rate path and its impact on earnings and valuations. Global Trends: The end of the negative interest rate era, the decline in North American Pay TV subscribers, and strategic CFO priorities highlight key global shifts. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause significant market volatility. Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy accordingly, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5171-73 (major), 5167, 5162, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5127 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5104, 5092 (major), 5083 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5181, 5191, 5202 (major), 5207, 5213 (major), 5220-24 (major), 5230, 5236, 5246-51 (major), 5260, 5267 (major), 5280, 5285, 5294 (major), 5300, 5304 (major), 5315, 5320-22 (major), 5332, 5340, 5345, 5354-57 (major) Trading Strategy: Pivot Point: The 5171-73 support (white trendline) is crucial. A potential bounce is possible, but exercise caution as significant selling pressure could develop if this level fails. Long Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities on a bounce or reclaim of 5171-73. The 5152-55 major support is the last line of defense for bulls. Avoid aggressive longs below that level. Look for entries around 5115 or 5127 only if they show strong signs of a rebound. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. Knife Catching Caution: Avoid impulsive buys deep into red candles on violent sell-offs. Treat them as short-term, smaller position trades. Bull Case Support Defense: Bulls need to hold the 5171-73 trendline, with ideally no further tests. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5152-55 zone, provides a low-risk entry for a move back towards resistance at 5202/5207. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5191 and above the 5170s support suggests potential upside for a move to 5202/5207. Path to New Highs: A successful defense of the trendline and subsequent move through resistance zones could lead to fresh all-time highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5171 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience here as breakdowns are often tricky and require skilled execution. Cascading Sell-off: If the 5152-55 major support fails, a deeper, more severe correction is possible. News: Top Stories for March 18th, 2024 Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan weighs investing in smaller, cheaper weaponry to counter potential invasion threats from China. Goldman Sachs Departure: The exit of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs signals potential internal shifts within the company. Middle East Conflict: Israel's raid on a hospital in Gaza risks escalating tensions in the region. Retail Challenges: Joann's bankruptcy highlights the ongoing difficulties faced by traditional retailers in the current consumer landscape. European Defense Stocks: The value of European defense stocks is fluctuating based on political rhetoric and policy shifts. FedEx-Amazon Partnership: Possible collaboration under discussion could reshape logistics and e-commerce dynamics. Fed Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's latest report highlights potential vulnerabilities due to leverage and high stock valuations. No rate cuts are expected until the Fed is confident inflation is under control. Bank Regulation Debate: A year after financial instability, regulators prepare new rules while facing industry criticism. Labor Market Update: Continued strength in the US job market puts factors into play the Fed will consider in its interest rate decisions. Inflation and Consumer Spending: The paradox of resilient consumer spending despite high inflation is a key focus of economists and policymakers. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on Nvidia's GTC Conference, updates on Indian markets, scrutiny of Adani Group, and shifts in startup financing trends. Remember: Prioritize capital preservation during this time of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential volatility and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.10 - 03.15 Last Week : Last week market opened inside Value, first cleared upper stops then got a nice sell from 5154.25 - 59.25 Key Resistance area back down to VAL, cleared that Support and got continuation back inside lower Edge taking all the lower stops except the pinata stops at Key Edge Support of 5066.50 - 60.75. Lower Edge ended up holding and we got a push back inside Value where we pretty much spent Friday. We did make a push above VAH which was met with selling and we ended up closing back inside Value. I have rolled my contract so Friday was trading new contract which opened up at the above Edge, made a push to next VAL and as mentioned that was a good target for that day as we can see profit taking in those above areas going into the weekend which gave a nice sell back under the Edge towards VAH. This Week : This week can be tricky to try and guess for multiple reasons, it's Opex week, we are going through contract roll, we are around KEY HTF Area and of course plenty of data dropping as well. But at least we can have a what IF game plan to go into it and see how the week develops. Usually if you see a Failure over HTF Edge like we had on new contract Friday that could bring in weakness and give a move back down to previous ranges VAH / Mean / VAL and Lower Edge, which we could get BUT because old contract closed inside Value, new contract is currently inside this 5150 - 5250 potential balance area over VAH and higher time frames like 4hr / Daily are not showing trend change just yet which tells us we have to be careful forcing for that as market may hold and let things catch up while we digest another big move without giving that bigger sell that everyone keeps expecting. I will be taking this week level to level range by range unless it shows bigger moves are ready to happen which you could continue catching level to level anyway. New contract is currently inside 5199.75 - 5159.25 Range, we have trapped Supply over the Edge which could keep us under for time being but also failed to get inside or tag VAH from above on Friday which is telling us that there is buying which could give holds over and maybe smaller ranges again ? To see upside from here we would need to take out Current Key Resistance at 5204.25 - 5199.75 and for any continuation above we would have to get through Edge top as our Supply is above. Current Support will be our VAH top at 5188.25 - 84.50 - 82.50 area which we would need to get through to try and make a push back inside Value towards the mean. This 5204.25 - 5199.75 could act as temporary mean and we can see balancing around this Edge/VAH area until market will be ready to move again. Levels to Watch : Current Key Resistance 5207.50 5204.25 - 5199.75 Targets above 5219.75 - 15.75 // Would need to accept above to attempt a move past 5227 into 5234.25 - 30.25 Next Key Resistance 5249.75 - 5244.75 need to get over for attempt at new Value. Current Intrarange Support 5188.25 - 84.50 Targets below 5174.25 - 5170.50 // Key Support for anything lower 5159.25 - 54.25 IF Stronger sell volume does come in we can watch for continuation towards VAL.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious on OPEX Friday Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by OPEX) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5213 (major), 5207, 5200 (major), 5196, 5192 (major), 5181, 5176, 5165 (major), 5160, 5152, 5146 (major), 5141, 5136, 5126, 5119, 5109-11 (major), 5102, 5091 (major), 5086-88 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5221 (major), 5229-32 (major), 5236, 5240, 5246, 5251 (major), 5257, 5264, 5269, 5278, 5287 (major), 5294-96 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5326, 5337, 5343 (major), 5352 (major), 5362, 5375-80 (major) Trading Strategy: OPEX Caution OPEX Volatility: Expect potential chop and poor follow-through due to options expiration dynamics. Exercise increased caution and prioritize capital preservation. Limited Positions: Reduce position sizes or consider sitting out the majority of the day. Avoid impulsive overtrading. Watch Out for Chop: The zone between 5192 and 5230 is particularly messy. Trade with extreme care within this range. Support Focus: Watch 5213 and 5200 for potential bounce plays, however, these zones are heavily used up and may not offer reliable setups. Long Opportunity: Look for longs around 5192 (the last major support before a steeper sell-off). Avoid longs below 5165. Bull Case OPEX Range: Expect a potential ugly range trade between 5192 (lowest support) and 5230. A successful defense of supports would set up a breakout towards 5251 and further toward the 5290s. Overnight Strength: If overnight trading shows basing below 5220, consider potential upside towards the next resistance level. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5191 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5191. News: Top Stories for March 15th, 2024 Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 continues its upward momentum, driven by strong fundamentals, earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector (AI stocks), and investor optimism for a Fed soft landing. Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate policy but signals potential rate cuts later in the year. Mixed Economic Data: Economic indicators show both strength and pockets of weakness. GDP growth remains impressive, while inflation data suggests challenges in the Fed's fight to control prices. Banking Regulations: One year after bank run concerns, regulators prepare new rules to mitigate future financial instability. Corporate Debt Concerns: Corporate defaults rise, highlighting the strain of inflation and high interest rates on riskier borrowers. Private Equity Expansion: Private equity giants expand into consumer debt markets, potentially impacting household financial health. Inflation Updates: The CPI and Core CPI remain critical for understanding inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve rate changes. Global Risks: Monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate risks, technological disruption, and election-related uncertainties for impacts on global markets. CFO Trends: Focus on digital transformation, strategic planning with AI/automation, and balanced growth strategies. Energy Transition: Challenges in the transition to net-zero energy become evident as major players face hurdles. Remember: Options Expiration (OPEX) can cause unpredictable market behavior. Trade with reduced risk, prioritize capital preservation, and be prepared for rapid shifts in direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor for trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching for breakout direction Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5230-28 (major), 5220, 5213, 5202-07 (major), 5191, 5180-83 (major), 5167, 5162, 5156 (major), 5148, 5144, 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5108, 5103, 5088-91 (major), 5083 (major), 5076, 5071, 5067 (major), 5060, 5053, 5048 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5235, 5245 (major), 5257 (major), 5265, 5280 (major), 5287-90 (major), 5300, 5306, 5314, 5327, 5335 (major), 5340, 5346 (major), 5354, 5363-65 (major), 5374 (major), 5380, 5391 (major) Trading Strategy: Consolidation Zone: Price action between 5230 and 5245 indicates a new consolidation range. Exercise caution with overtrading within this range. Look for breakouts or breakdowns for clearer directional cues. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5230-28 (after a dip and reclaim) and 5220 (if today's low holds and reclaims). For aggressive traders, major supports like 5202, 5183, and 5156 offer potential bounce areas for catching points on a larger sell-off. Counter-trend Caution: (For experienced traders): Shorting green candles is risky. If a breakout above 5245 occurs, watch for short entries around the 5280-90 zone. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction setups. Bull Case: Flag Structure: Current price action could be forming a bull flag. Defending 5230 and 5220 supports keeps this scenario alive, targeting a potential breakout towards 5257, 5265, 5280, and the 5287-90 zone. Adding within Flags: Monitor for reclaims of 5235, indicating strength within the consolidation with the potential for another test of 5245. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5220 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5220. News: Top Stories for March 14th, 2024 U.S.-China Deal: The quiet extension of a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and China underscores ongoing complex diplomatic and trade relations. Chip Manufacturing Contrasts: Delays in a U.S. chip plant contrasted with Japan's on-schedule progress highlight the challenges and global dynamics in the semiconductor industry. Gaza Economic Crisis: Surging inflation in Gaza puts further strain on residents, particularly due to the dramatic price increase for essential goods. Immigration Impact: Post-pandemic urban growth in the U.S. is significantly driven by immigration, reshaping demographics and economic landscapes. TikTok Scrutiny: The U.S. House of Representatives takes a step towards potentially banning or forcing the sale of TikTok, citing national security concerns. Retail Landscape: Family Dollar's planned closures signal changes in the retail sector due to shifting consumer behavior. Labor Market Update: The robust U.S. job market adds 275K positions, a factor as the Fed weighs interest rate decisions. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on the upcoming PPI data, oil market dynamics, and Robinhood's surging trading volume for potential market implications.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/13 Wednesday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Wednesday, March 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5235, 5230, 5221 (major), 5214, 5207 (major), 5202, 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5175 (major), 5167, 5162, 5155 (major), 5148 (major), 5137 (major), 5125, 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5097, 5090 (major), 5082, 5077-80 (major), 5070, 5060 (Major), 5056, 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5026, 5018-20 (major), 5012, 5000 (major), 4990, 4982 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5242 (major), 5254, 5257, 5274-78 (major), 5283, 5290 (major), 5297, 5309, 5315, 5326 (major), 5331, 5341, 5345, 5355 (major), 5366 (major). Trading Strategy: Post Trend-Leg Caution: After the significant rally, short-term setups are less clear. Exercise caution with both longs (chasing, rug pull risk) and shorts (against the dominant trend). Let price discovery unfold before forcing trades. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5235, 5221, and particularly 5207. Look for reclaims or failed breakdown setups for stronger entries. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Consider shorts on confirmed breakdowns below 5207 or bounces off the 5274-78, and 5290 resistance areas. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction entries. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The overall bull trend remains strong. Defending 5220 and 5207 supports paves the way towards new highs at 5254, 5274-78, and the 5290 macro magnet. Adding within Flags: Monitor for potential bull flags overnight between 5242 and 5230. Consider adding positions within a well-formed flag if a major new high is not made. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5207 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns, ideally after a bounce. News: Top Stories for March 13th, 2024 Economic Outlook: Despite President Biden's cautious economic forecasts in November, recent progress suggests a stronger outlook. Economists are predicting faster growth, lower inflation, and continued job creation. Housing Initiatives: President Biden's proposed initiatives to reduce housing costs aim to ease affordability challenges caused by inflation and high-interest rates. Cryptocurrency Trends: Meme coins are surging, while electric vehicle stocks see mixed analyst opinions highlighting the volatility of these sectors. Gold's Safe Haven: Amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the record-high gold price reflects its appeal as a safe-haven investment. Interest Rate Debate: Speculation continues around the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/12 Tuesday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Tuesday, March 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5181 (major), 5176, 5168 (major), 5163, 5155, 5149, 5140 (major), 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5110, 5103 (major), 5092-95 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067, 5056, 5047, 5038-41 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5187, 5198, 5202 (major), 5212, 5220 (major), 5230, 5238, 5248-50 (major), 5262, 5267-70 (major), 5279, 5288-90 (major), 5297, 5305, 5314-16 (major), 5324, 5336 (major), 5344 (major) Trading Strategy: CPI Volatility: The recent CPI data release suggests hotter-than-expected inflation. Approach Tuesday's trading with heightened caution, reduced position sizes, and anticipate the potential for large swings and sudden reversals. Re-evaluate Supports: The CPI data indicates increased potential for a more substantial market pullback. Reassess support levels and be prepared for potential breaks below the previously noted "major" levels. Short-Term Bearish Tilt: Consider a short-term bearish bias for the day, prioritizing potential shorting opportunities on confirmed breakdowns below key supports or bounces off resistance levels. Focus on Commodities: Pay close attention to commodities markets, specifically oil and food-related commodities, as recent price increases suggest further inflationary pressure. Bull Case Trend Defense: Bullish outlook remains plausible if 5181 and 5168 are defended. Holding these supports suggests a potential path towards resistances at 5203 and 5220. Adding on Strength: Consider adding to long positions on reclaims of 5187, but proceed with extra caution ahead of potential further volatility. Bear Case Breakdown Risk: Breakdown below 5168-63 could signal a reversal. Look for bounces or failed breakdowns at these supports for potential short entries. Be aware that moves can be very rapid during high-impact news releases. News: Top Stories for March 12th, 2024 Inflation Concerns Surge: The latest CPI data reveals higher-than-expected inflation readings, sparking concerns about persistent inflation and its impact on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates. Market Volatility: Recent volatility underscores the sensitivity of the market to economic data and geopolitical events. Sectors like technology are drawing additional attention. Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are fluctuating, reacting to regulatory updates and news of institutional adoption. Earnings Outlook: Stay attuned to corporate earnings for insights into how companies are navigating current economic challenges. Geopolitical Impacts: Global tensions, notably the Ukraine-Russia conflict, are influencing commodity markets and overall sentiment. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on M&A activity, economic indicators, tech regulation developments, sustainable investing trends, and evolving U.S.-China trade relations. Remember: News-driven events like the CPI release can trigger significant short-term volatility. Stay flexible, be prepared to adapt, and prioritize preserving your capital. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/11 Monday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Monday, March 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5196, 5187 (major), 5181, 5176, 5168 (major), 5163 (major), 5155, 5147, 5140, 5136, 5131, 5126 (major), 5116, 5108, 5103, 5095, 5090 (major), 5084 (major), 5076, 5072 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5205 (major), 5211, 5220 (major), 5232, 5241 (major), 5254, 5262 (major), 5270-73 (major), 5280, 5290 (major), 5296, 5309 (major), 5326, 5330 (major), 5348, 5359, 5366, 5377 (major) Trading Strategy: Cautious Trading: The early week dip suggests a more cautious approach for Monday's trading. Err on the side of capital preservation by limiting aggressive trades. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at major support levels, particularly 5187, 5168-63, and 5126. Counter-trend Cautions: (For experienced traders) Be aware of potential short opportunities at resistances like 5262 and 5241, but remember the overall bull trend remains in force. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The overall bull market is still dominant. Defending 5187 (and ideally 5163) supports would signal that another leg up is likely, targeting 5262+. Adding on Strength: Monitor reclaims of 5211 for potential long entries. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: A decisive break below 5187, particularly a failed breakdown, could trigger a move down the levels. Watch for shorting opportunities on confirmed breakdowns. News: Top Stories for March 11th, 2024 Stock Market Strength: The S&P 500 continues its record-breaking run, with a strong 7.11% return year-to-date. AI Drives Tech Boom: AI stocks, led by Nvidia's impressive earnings, are boosting the technology sector. Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates are a key focus as investors anticipate potential cuts in late 2024. US Economic Picture: The latest GDP growth projections suggest a potential slowdown, but strong earnings and market momentum are positive indicators. Global Outlook: The IMF's upward revision of global growth forecasts points to a return to normal growth levels. Regulatory Updates: Fed officials are planning new rules to prevent banking crises, and the finalization of Basel III could have significant implications for the sector. Additional Considerations: Historical Trends: Historically, a strong January and February for the S&P 500 tend to foreshadow continued gains over the following 12 months. Inflation Expectations: Monitor potential for a rebounding inflation rate later in the year.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/8 Friday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Friday Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5155 (major), 5146, 5140, 5133 (major), 5125 (major), 5118, 5113, 5106 (major), 5101, 5088-92 (major), 5084, 5073, 5065, 5057-60 (major), 5052, 5046, 5040, 5032-29 (major), 5022, 5018, 5013 (Major), 4998-5000 (major), 4994, 4987, 4983 (major), 4976, 4965-70 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5167, 5175, 5190 (major), 5197-5200, 5209 (major), 5217, 5229-32 (major), 5243, 5254, 5262-65 (major), 5272 (major), 5282, 5287 (major), 5300 (major), 5308, 5316 (major), 5331, 5344 (major). Trading Strategy: Capital Preservation Friday: Prioritize capital protection ahead of aggressive positions. Limit risk exposure to 20% of previous gains. Cautious Longs: Focus on potential longs at 5155, 5133, 5125, and particularly 5106. Look for bounces or reclaims of support levels for long entries. NFP Volatility: Anticipate heightened volatility and potential traps in the 30 minutes following the NFP data release at 8:30 AM. Approach with caution. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: Bulls remain in control on longer time frames. A successful defense of the 5155 level and ideally, the 5133 support, would pave the way for a base-building pattern below 5170 before retesting 5190 and the macro magnet levels above. Adding on Strength: Monitor for potential bull flags above 5150 or failed breakdowns of flag supports for long entries. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5146 may signal a move down the levels. Watch for failed breakdown setups and bounces before considering short positions. In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but increased volatility and NFP release require a cautious approach. Focus on capital preservation, targeting potential longs at key support levels. News: Top Stories for March 8, 2024 Stock Market Strength: The S&P 500 continues to reach new all-time highs. AI Stocks Drive Tech Sector: AI-focused companies, particularly Nvidia, have spurred growth in the technology sector. Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting and plans to maintain them at current levels ahead of the March 20 meeting. Rate cut expectations are rising for later in 2024. Indian Economic Outlook: Moody's raises India's economic growth forecast to 8% for FY24, citing strong domestic demand and government spending. The Reserve Bank of India governor also anticipates GDP growth near 8%. Global Outlook: J.P. Morgan economists expect the global economy to avoid recession despite monetary tightening, but they predict an end to global expansion in mid-2025. Inflation and Currencies: US inflation, measured by the CPI, rose more than expected in January. Sterling climbed to its highest since August, bolstered by potential rate cut expectations for the ECB and Fed. Other Highlights UK-India free trade agreement faces potential delays. Crude oil prices declined slightly, and gold prices increased. Bitcoin's rally is attributed to its limited supply. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.03.24 - 03.08.24Last week - we were able to consolidate inside the Edge that we broke out of and get a squeeze for another test of upper VAL and a push inside Value. We were able to reach the Mean but no continuation through it towards next Key Resistance and a sell back under end of Day. Going into this week are inside a new ranges Value and our goal is to see IF more buying comes in to try to take out Current high to test next Key Area at 5159.25 - 54.25 and try to go above it ? IF we accept here and start balancing within new current range of 5154.25 - 5112.50 or IF stronger selling comes in to takes us back under VAL back inside Previous range ? We have built up a good amount of stops inside a T2 Range at the lower Edge which took a week to build, if we start holding under 5140 - 5125 - 5112.50 that could bring in Weakness to try and take lower Stops. We would need a strong bid to take out current upper Stops and build above them to try and accept over next Key Resistance. If no strong selling comes in then we could start balancing in current range. Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 5144 - 5140.25 // Key Resistance 5159.25 - 54.25 Levels Above : 5174.25 - 5188.25 // 5188.25 - 84.50 Current Support 5129 - 25 ? Untested // Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 Levels Below 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 Key Support 5066.50 - 60.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
3/7 Thursday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Thursday Market Sentiment: Neutral Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5100, 5093 (major), 5087, 5082-79 (major), 5078, 5070-73, 5058-60, 5052, 5045 (major), 5033-36 (major), 5028, 5018-20 (major), 5013, 5008 (major), 4998 (major), 4988, 4978, 4969, 4965-63 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5108 (major), 5112, 5121 (major), 5126, 5130-33 (major), 5140 (major), 5146, 5154, 5163, 5171 (major), 5182 (major), 5195, 5203-5206 (major), 5216, 5223, 5228 (major), 5235, 5240 (major), 5247, 5258-61 (major). Trading Strategy: Range-Bound Market: Trade with caution within the newly established range between 5093 and 5130-33. Exercise discipline and focus on key levels for potential trades. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5108 (if back-tested), 5093, or on a failed breakdown of today's lows (5099-5100). If 5093 fails, aim for longs only at major supports; consider a failed breakdown of yesterday's low (5063) as a possible trade setup. Short Opportunities: Selling opportunities may emerge at the 5130 level if resistance holds. As always, avoid shorting green candles. Bull Case: Short-Term Focus: Bulls maintain control on higher timeframes. Failure of 5033-36 would signal the first step towards a trend shift. Focus on the immediate term; holding above 5093 allows for a base-building pattern between 5093 and 5130, with upside targets of 5140, 5146, and ultimately 5180. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Loss of 5093 raises caution, particularly if the 5079-83 support fails, triggering a deeper selloff. Exercise caution with breakdown trades and wait for clear signals. In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but increased volatility warrants a cautious approach. Pay close attention to the 5093 and 5130-33 levels. A breach of 5093 opens up opportunities for deeper retracements. News: Top Stories for March 7, 2024 Stock Market Rally Continues: The S&P 500 saw a strong February with a 5.34% gain and maintains a YTD total return of 7.11%. Investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential for a soft landing remains high. Recent earnings reports continue to surpass expectations. Federal Reserve Policy Shifts: Strong economic data may lead the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts previously expected to begin in March. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggests the Fed's policy rate is likely at its peak, potential rate cuts may only materialize later this year. Economic Outlook: While FOMC officials are not anticipating a recession, they project a significant slowdown in the U.S GDP growth in 2024. The technology sector, with a particular emphasis on AI companies like Nvidia, continues to demonstrate robust earnings growth. Global Market Developments: China reduces a key interest rate to stimulate its property sector. Asian markets show mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei reaching notable highs. Corporate and Banking Highlights: New York Community Bank receives a $1 billion investment from entities including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's company. Lufthansa reinstates dividends on the back of increased profits. WuXi Companies' shares experience a decline amidst renewed U.S. sanction concerns. Cryptocurrency Trends: Bitcoin's price surge is linked to its limited supply. Regulatory Updates: The SEC approves a revised climate disclosure rule, easing requirements for companies to report certain emissions. Investing Insights: Analysts from JPMorgan, Fidelity, and Morningstar offer perspectives on economic growth, inflation, corporate profits, and stock market valuations, emphasizing that despite potential economic slowdown, opportunities exist for investors across various asset classes. Other Major Developments: RBI takes action against Paytm Payments Bank in India. AstraZeneca announces a £200 million expansion investment in Cambridge, UK.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/6 Wednesday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral Weekly Volatility Risk: High Trading Plan for Wednesday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5081, 5073, 5063-66 (major), 5057, 5052, 5044, 5035-40 (major), 5028, 5022, 5018 (major), 5013, 5009, 5003, 4996-98 (major), 4987, 4983 (major), 4976, 4970 (major), 4962-66 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5088 (major), 5096 (major), 5105, 5117-19 (major), 5126-28 (major), 5135, 5140, 5146, 5153-5155 (major), 5167, 5177 (major), 5183, 5197 (major), 5207, 5212, 5219, 5228-30 (major), 5241, 5247, 5252-54 (major), 5268, 5278 (major). Trading Strategy: Navigating Increased Volatility: Expect complex trading conditions as uncertainty around trend continuation and higher volatility persists. Employ disciplined level-to-level trading strategies. Focus on Support at 5088-81: This zone is critical; trade tests of 5081 or reclaims of 5088 for potential longs. Support at 5063-65: This major support zone may still have strength left for long attempts. Ideally, look for a test of this afternoon's low (around 5062), followed by a reclaim, for a long entry setup. Backtesting Breakout Level: Monitor the 5035-40 support level; it represents a crucial backtest of February 22nd's triangle breakout. This is a high-confidence area for longs. Potential Shorting Opportunity: The 5117-19 and 5126-28 zone offers a potential short setup for quick points if today's breakdown can be retested. Exercise caution; a strong reaction and reclaim could signal a powerful short squeeze. Bull Case: Immediate Focus: Defense of 5088-81 as a base with reclaims of 5096 setting the stage for a push towards 5105, followed by 5117-19. Opportunities on Strength: Consider adding long positions during overnight flagging and within the base. Bear Case: Breakdown Below 5081: A breakdown below this support targets potential short entries around 5079-80. Use breakdown trades cautiously, recognizing their low win rate but high reward potential. Additional Short Opportunities: Look for shorts at 5063-65 (if it fails) and potentially at 5060. In Summary: The trend could hinge on Wednesday's price action. Be prepared for complex trading conditions. Defending 5088-81 would favor bulls targeting a retest of today's high. Loss of 5081 indicates a potential move down towards 5065, with further downside risk if this level fails. News: Top Stories for March 6, 2024 Mortgage Rates Ease: Borrowers are experiencing some relief with declining mortgage rates in a generally expensive housing market. BOJ Outlook: Bank of Japan officials are expressing increased confidence in wage growth, potentially signaling an end to Japan's negative interest rate policy soon. Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500 continues to show strength, gaining 5.34% in February with a YTD total return of 7.11%. Investor optimism persists around the Federal Reserve's potential for a soft landing in the U.S. economy. Tech Sector Strength: AI stocks, particularly Nvidia, are driving impressive earnings growth in the technology sector. Chinese Economic Picture: China shows robust economic activity in early 2024, prioritizing technology advancement and industrial upgrades. However, declines are seen in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and the Shanghai Composite index against global market highs. Fed Policy & Interest Rates The Federal Reserve is anticipated to hold interest rates steady at their next meeting on March 20. The market is factoring in a chance of a rate cut by June, while mixed economic data guides the Fed's approach to a soft landing. 2024 Elections & Market Uncertainty: The upcoming U.S. presidential election could inject volatility into the stock market, raising concerns about tech sector valuations. Corporate Highlights: CrowdStrike has reported strong earnings performance. Skincare companies consider going public with IPOs in 2024. International News: China's exports and bank loans increase, pointing to potential economic expansion. Gaza cease-fire talks reach a critical juncture with geopolitical implications. U.S. Political Updates: Reports suggest Nikki Haley is ending her presidential campaign. The Biden administration's decision to cut credit card late fees affects bank revenues. Cryptocurrency Trend: Bitcoin has reached a fresh record high, sparking heightened investor interest. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/5 Tuesday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral Weekly Volatility Risk: High Trading Plan for Tuesday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5135 (major), 5125-27 (major), 5110-13, 5102 (major), 5092 (major), 5087, 5079, 5070-73 (major), 5065, 5053, 5045 (major), 5037 (major), 5033, 5026 (major), 5018, 5013 (major), 5003, 4998 (major), 4987, 4983 (major), 4976 (Major), 4971, 4960-64 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5140, 5146, 5151 (major), 5163 (major), 5170 (major), 5179, 5187-92 (major), 5200, 5209, 5219, 5226 (major), 5236, 5241 (major), 5248, 5268-62 (major), 5286, 5297-5301 (major), 5305, 5312, 5320, 5327 (major). Trading Strategy: Cautious Approach with Chop: After last week's strong directional move, expect increased volatility and less predictable price action. Focus on nimble trading, targeting profits, and moving to the sidelines frequently. Potential Longs: Consider buying dips at 5135 (tested heavily, may be less reliable) and 5125-5127. Aim for shorter-term gains. Only target major support levels for longer-term holds if 5092 fails. Deep Correction Watch: Be highly cautious of long positions if 5092 falters. A sustained break below this level would signal a substantial correction with multiple major support failures, a scenario well-suited for short positions. Shorting: I avoid countertrend shorts in ES. Focus on shorting potential breakdowns at 5163, 5170, and 5187-92 for those comfortable with this style. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: Bulls remain in control of the broader trend. Short-term corrections are expected, but a sustained bearish shift would require weeks of downward pressure. Base Building: A successful defense of the 5125-27 zone, with 5092 as the absolute floor, could pave the way for a consolidation pattern under 5150. This would set the stage for a breakout towards 5170, 5187-92, and eventually 5226. Adding on Strength: Buying dips after reclaiming 5140 shows potential for short-term gains. Bear Case: Significant Correction: A break below 5092 indicates a failure of last week's breakout and the start of a deeper, multi-day correction - ideal for shorting opportunities. Breakdown Trades: Breakdown trades target shorts below failed support levels. Look for strong bounces and failed breakdowns. 5125-27 also presents a potential shorting point if it fails to hold. In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but volatility is increasing. Prioritize nimble trading and focus on support/resistance levels. If 5125-27 holds, a new base may form under 5150. A break below 5092 signals a major correction and triggers short positions. News: Top Stories for March 5, 2024 Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500 saw a strong February performance with a 5.34% gain and a current YTD total return of 7.11%. However, investor sentiment is shifting, with concerns about the Fed potentially postponing interest rate cuts. Wall Street closed lower on March 4th ahead of key economic data releases and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony. AI Stocks Drive Gains: The technology sector, particularly AI-focused stocks like Nvidia, have experienced strong earnings growth. Nvidia's Q4 revenue surge of 265% highlights this trend. Fed Policy & Economic Data: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on March 6th and 7th, with markets awaiting updates on monetary policy and interest rate trajectories. The Fed has denied plans for rate cuts at the March FOMC meeting. The latest Federal Reserve projections anticipate a marked slowdown in US GDP growth for 2024. Despite this, the S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs fueled by strong economic fundamentals. Global Growth Outlook: China sets a 5% economic growth target for 2024, in line with expectations and marking a rebound from the previous year's pace. IMF paints a resilient global economy forecast for 2024 and 2025, projecting growth at 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This is attributed to robust performance in the US and various large emerging markets, alongside fiscal stimulus in China. Corporate Highlights: Target exceeded Wall Street estimates with a strong fourth-quarter profit increase of 58%, showcasing effective cost and inventory management. The retailer's shares surged 8.5% premarket. Other major retailers, including Costco, Gap, and Nordstrom, will release their holiday sales figures, offering insight into consumer sentiment and the economy's health. Crypto Trends & Investment Flows: Bitcoin funds experience record inflows, signaling growing investor interest. BlackRock's bitcoin ETF achieved the fastest-ever rise to $10 billion in assets. Investors favor AI and technology stocks, with Nvidia noted as a top performer in the S&P 500. Regulatory & Policy Developments: President Biden forms a strike force to tackle 'corporate rip-offs', suggesting heightened regulatory focus on corporate actions. EU regulators continue to tighten their grip on Big Tech this year, as evident in a recent record antitrust fine levied against Apple. Disclaimer: This analysis serves educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/4 Monday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Trading Plan for Monday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5134, 5124 (major), 5113 (major), 5106, 5096 (major), 5093, 5085-87, 5079, 5074 (major), 5063, 5052 (major), 5046, 5039-41 (major), 5034, 5028 (major), 5018, 5013, 4998-5000 (major), 4992, 4987-85 (major), 4975, 4970, 4960-65 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5144, 5150 (major), 5158, 5163 (major), 5170, 5175, 5183-86 (major), 5190, 5200, 5208-10 (Major), 5216, 5225-30 (major), 5240 (major), 5246 (major), 5259 Trading Strategy: Cautious Approach After Parabolic Rally: Exercise caution after the recent parabolic move; price needs to establish new levels for clear trading opportunities. Be prepared for choppy, unpredictable action or a pullback. Reduced Position Size: Limit risk exposure on Monday by trading only a partial position (approximately 20% of previous profits). Focus on Supports and Demand: Target 5124 and 5113 as primary support zones for potential longs. If 5096 fails, consider the bull flag pattern invalidated and anticipate a deeper pullback. Remain patient until at least the 5052 level before considering new long entries. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The bull market remains in control. Focus on the 5123-5113 and 5096 support zones. Holding above these levels could lead to a consolidation phase (5113-5150) before pushing higher towards 5163, 5183-86, and ultimately 5225. Adding on Strength (Cautiously): Look for opportunities to add to positions in potential pullbacks or flags that develop off the 5134 area. Bear Case: Breakdown Below 5113-5123: A decisive break below these support levels signals a shift in momentum. Consider shorts on failed bounces at 5123/5113, targeting a move down the levels. Use disciplined profit-taking. Top News for March 4, 2024 Stock Market Rally Continues: The S&P 500 continues to make new all-time highs in 2024, with February's performance marking an impressive 5.34% gain. Year-to-date, the index boasts a strong 7.11% total return. Optimism Around a Soft Landing: Investor confidence in the Federal Reserve achieving a soft landing for the U.S. economy is growing. Positive Earnings Results: Fourth-quarter earnings surpassed expectations, demonstrating corporate resilience to rising costs and high-interest rates. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Updates: The bond market anticipates only a 3.0% chance of a Fed rate cut in March. However, a 66.1% chance exists for a cut of at least 25 basis points by June. The January CPI showed mixed results at 3.1% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing efforts to achieve a soft landing. Tech Leaders Shine: Nvidia (NVDA) reported astonishing Q4 revenue growth of 265%, sending its stock prices soaring over 60% YTD. Apple Faces EU Fine: The European Union imposed a fine of nearly $2 billion on Apple over preferential treatment of its music streaming service, Apple Music, compared to competitors like Spotify. JetBlue and Spirit Merger Blocked: A court ruling has halted the planned merger between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines. Winnebago Results Upcoming: Winnebago Industries will release its fiscal 2024 second-quarter financial results on March 21, 2024. Market Outlook Tech Sector Leads the Charge: Strong earnings and growth in technology stocks, especially within the AI sector, are fueling the market rally. Historical Trends Offer Insights: Data suggests that a positive S&P 500 performance in January and February usually signals continued growth over the year, with an average return of 14.8%. Other News Highlights: Trump's Ballot Eligibility Restored: The Supreme Court has reinstated former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run in future elections. Bitcoin Rally Continues: Bitcoin's bullish momentum continues, with prices exceeding $65,000. Nikkei 225 Breaks New Ground: Japan's Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.5%, surpassing the 40,000 mark for the first time. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/1 Friday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral Trading Plan for Friday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5093, 5087, 5078-80 (major), 5066, 5058 (major), 5052, 5041-41 (major), 5031, 5028, 5018-22 (major), 5013, 5009, 5004, 4998 (major), 4988 (major), 4976, 4965, 4956-69 (major), 4947. Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5100-02 (major), 5108, 5113, 5120-24 (major), 5131, 5140 (major), 5150, 5155-57 (major), 5163, 5170, 5179-81 (major), 5188, 5196, 5200 (major), 5210 (major), 5214, 5220-25 (major), 5232, 5240 (major). Trading Strategy: Capital Preservation Friday: Prioritize capital preservation over aggressive trading today. Limited High-Quality Setups: The market's recent price action limits the availability of clear, high-probability setups. Exercise caution and selectivity. Disciplined Trading Within the Range: The 5108-5066 range defines the current market; employ disciplined, level-to-level trading strategies within this range. Creative Approaches: The established range will require creativity in identifying trade opportunities. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The bull market remains in control. Short-term focus is on the 5078-80 support level. Holding above this level primes ES for a breakout of the ongoing bull flag, targeting 5120-24 and potentially moving toward new all-time highs (5140, 5155-57). Adding on Strength (Cautiously): Look for opportunities to add to positions, but proceed carefully due to limited visibility on setups. Overnight flagging above 5087, while remaining below 5113, may offer a constructive setup for direct upward movement. Bear Case: Support Failure: Breakdowns below 5078-80 trigger the bear case. Expect retests of the support level and consider shorting on failed bounces around 5076. Breakdown Trades: Breakdown trades are risky (low win-rate, high reward potential). Proceed with caution or consider avoiding these setups if you find them unsuitable. In Summary: Prioritize capital protection today. Maintain awareness of the trend but focus on trading within the established range using disciplined and creative approaches. If 5078-80 support fails, a potential shift in dynamics may require adjustments to your trading plan. Top News for March 1, 2024 KeyCorp Earnings Calls Scheduled: KeyCorp has announced its schedule for quarterly earnings conference calls throughout 2024. Investors can access live audio webcasts via the company's investor relations website. Biodesix Reports FY2023 Results: Biodesix, a leading diagnostic solutions provider, has released its financials for Q4 and FY2023, highlighting substantial growth in Lung Diagnostic test volume and a solid gross profit margin. The company projects significant total revenue growth for 2024. Fox River Corporate Update: Fox River Resources Corporation has provided progress updates on its ongoing projects for 2024, including Battery Supply Chain Initiatives and Pilot Plant Phosphoric Acid Tests. Financial Rule Changes Effective March 2024: Key financial changes are set to take place in March 2024, including GST rule updates, FASTag deactivation, and bank holidays. Additionally, the fiscal year 2023-24 will close on March 31. Vanguard CEO Transition: Vanguard's CEO, Tim Buckley, who oversaw massive asset growth during his tenure, is stepping down. Lordstown Motors Settles with SEC: Electric-truck maker Lordstown Motors has reached a settlement with the SEC regarding disclosure issues surrounding its SPAC deal. Nasdaq Hits Record High: The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index closed at an all-time high for the first time in over two years. Dell's Outlook Boosted by AI Adoption: Dell's shares rose in response to bullish annual forecasts driven by increased demand for AI-optimized servers. This indicates AI adoption is a significant growth factor for enterprise technology suppliers. Brazil's Q4 GDP Flat: Brazil's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 unexpectedly showed zero growth, missing market expectations slightly. New York Community Bancorp Shares Fall: Shares in NYCB have declined due to the discovery of 'material weaknesses' in its loan review processes. Disclaimer: Remember, this analysis serves an educational purpose; it should not be taken as financial advice. Always consult a financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
2/29 Wednesday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral Indian and Global Market Updates Mixed Indian Indices in Early Trading: The BSE Sensex and Nifty oscillated between gains and losses in a volatile morning session, mirroring muted global market cues and today's monthly derivatives expiry. Reliance Industries, Maruti, and Others Lead Gains: Reliance Industries, Maruti, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, and State Bank of India were among the top gainers on the Sensex. Lagging Behind: Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the stocks underperforming. Economic Outlook and Indicators Elevated Recession Risk: Economist David Rosenberg warns of an 85% chance of a US recession in 2024, a high probability not seen since the 2008 crisis. His forecast is informed by a combination of financial conditions, debt-service ratios, foreign term spreads, and yield curve dynamics. Bitcoin Soars: Bitcoin has reached record highs in Australian dollars and is closing in on an all-time US dollar high, driven by bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. UK Economic Indicators Updated: Real-time indicators such as flight activity and London traffic data, as well as online job advert indices and automotive fuel spending insights, provide an update on the UK economy. US Growth Forecast Revised Upward: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model increased its first-quarter 2024 real GDP growth estimate to 3.2%, up from 2.9% previously. Data Revisions Announced: The US Census Bureau has informed that revisions will be made to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates released in March and April 2024, respectively. News Highlights Real Estate, Consumer Cyclicals, and Tech Advance: The real estate sector outperformed, followed by consumer cyclicals and technology, while utilities were the only sector showing losses. Electronic Arts Announces Layoffs: Electronic Arts (EA) is cutting around 5% of its workforce and ending development on select video games. Oprah Winfrey Exits WW International: Oprah Winfrey will step down from the board of WW International (former Weight Watchers) and plans to sell her stake in the company. OpenAI Under SEC Investigation: The SEC is investigating possible misrepresentation to OpenAI investors, examining CEO Sam Altman's internal communications. Oil Prices Dip Slightly: The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, saw a slight decline of 0.17% to $83.54 per barrel. Trading Plan for Thursday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5074 (major), 5066, 5058, 5052 (major), 5040-42 (major), 5028-30 (major), 5018, 5013 (major), 5009, 4999 (major), 4988, 4981-83 (major), 4971, 4964, 4955-59 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5079 (major), 5087 (major), 5093, 5098, 5102, 5106-08 (major), 5113, 5118 (major), 5128, 5134-36 (major), 5142, 5150-52 (major), 5156, 5163, 5168-70, 5176 (major), 5182, 5190, 5195-5200 (major), 5209 (major), 5217, 5225 (major), 5230, 5235 (major). Trading Strategy: Range-Bound Market: The current market exhibits choppy, range-bound behavior. Exercise caution and focus on well-defined support and resistance levels to determine potential long or short entry points. Inverse H&S Pattern in Play: An inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed since Monday's afternoon low, with 5074 as the neckline. Monitor this structure for potential directional clues, but acknowledge patterns offer only slight probability edges. Disciplined Trading: Employ a disciplined trading strategy, including planned profit-taking and stop-loss orders, especially when testing significant support and resistance areas to manage potential market volatility. Disclaimer: Remember, this analysis serves an educational purpose; it should not be taken as financial advice. Always consult a financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro