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12/28 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Santa Rally Continues The market remains steady as the traditional "Santa Rally" lifts spirits and prices. Bulls are in firm control with the critical support at 4808 serving as the line in the sand. 📝 Recap: Steady Above Support The market has been resilient, notably maintaining above the 4822 level. A late-day failed breakdown near the 4824 mark underscores the strength at these levels. Eyes are now closely watching the 4816 and 4808-06 supports, whose failure might trigger more pronounced selling. 🌜 The Markets Overnight Currently, the market is testing the 4834-36 resistance zone. Bullish continuation could see consolidation below this level, potentially offering opportunities for upward continuation. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Global Market Movements: US Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.79%. S&P 500 inched up, approaching its record close from January 2022. Hang Seng Index rebounded, driven by online and mobile gaming stocks and EV stocks. USDJPY extended losses amid falling US Treasury yields and Japan's stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production. Crude oil retreated, but copper and gold experienced gains. Central Bank Actions and Inflation: Central banks globally have increased interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation while trying to maintain growth. China's Market Rally: Chinese stocks rallied towards the year-end, with the CSI 300 Index gaining significantly as foreign investors bought onshore equities. Economic Predictions for 2024: Financial experts are considering the implications of continued high interest rates and the potential for a soft landing of the economy. Stock Market Performance: The Russell 2000 is on track for a significant two-month gain. Stocks are heading for gains at the end of the trading week, month, quarter, and year. Financial Scandals: The financial sector faced numerous scandals, including the collapse of Credit Suisse and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Cryptocurrency Developments: Bitcoin advances as optimism builds about ETF approval by the SEC. Cathie Wood's investment firm goes big into ProShares Bitcoin and dumps Grayscale. Technology and AI: New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement. Apple's iPhone design chief joins efforts to work on AI devices. Economic Forecasts and Concerns: There are concerns about a potential stock market crash amid quiet trading. Investors are advised to watch for data related to inflation, earnings, and unemployment. Geopolitical and Economic Challenges: The global economy faces challenges from geopolitical shocks, tight labor markets, and the impact of AI on jobs. Outrageous Predictions for 2024: With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League franchise. A major health crisis hits as obesity drugs make people stop exercising. Robert F. Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential election. Other Notable News: The New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI in a copyright case. The Bank of Japan may abandon yield curve control due to Japan's GDP growth. The EU introduces a wealth tax, impacting luxury demand. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: Major Supports: 4822, 4816, 4808-06, 4795, 4788, 4778-4781, 4771-69, 4756-61, 4747, 4744, 4733-35, 4717-22, 4709-05, 4698, 4687, 4683, 4675-78, 4658-61, and 4642. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: Major Resistances: 4834-36, 4843, 4854, 4860, 4874, 4880, 4890, 4899, 4906-08, 4914, 4925-30, 4845, 4953, 4963, 4976, 4990, and 5005. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market is showing signs of continued bullish momentum, with a current focus on maintaining above the key support levels. Key Strategy: Emphasis is placed on defending important support zones, particularly around 4808-06, which if held, could lead to a continued upward trajectory. Upside Targets: If the market sustains above these supports, we could see a move towards higher resistances at 4834-36 and upwards to 4843 and 4854. Risk Consideration: Given the low volume nature of the week, abrupt moves could occur, necessitating a flexible and responsive approach to trading. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market remains in a bullish stance until a crucial support at 4808-06 is decisively broken, potentially leading to a rapid shift in sentiment and increased selling pressure. Critical Levels: Watch for 4808-06 as the immediate line that, if breached, would significantly alter the bullish narrative. Short Entry Points: Any breakdown below these levels should be approached with caution, understanding the nature of high-risk breakdown trades. Downside Targets: A breach of support could lead to testing of subsequent lower levels, demanding vigilance and quick adaptation from traders. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market's continued resilience above support levels like 4808-06 and 4816 augurs well for the bullish case, yet the need for vigilance remains paramount. Key Levels to Watch: The focus remains on how the market respects the 4808-06 and 4816 supports, with these levels serving as crucial indicators for the day's sentiment. Resistance Testing: Reaction to resistance levels, particularly at 4834-36, will provide further clues to the market's strength and potential for continued ascent. Risk Awareness: The unique nature of holiday trading requires a heightened awareness of potential volatility and unexpected moves. Strategy Adaptability: Traders are encouraged to maintain a flexible approach, ready to adjust strategies swiftly in response to market changes. Today’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The market's next steps are closely tied to its behavior around the 4808-06 and 4816 levels, with these supports being key to sustaining the current bullish momentum. Profit Strategy: A level-to-level trading approach is recommended, focusing on capitalizing on movements from these key support levels upwards while being prepared for any necessary shifts in strategy. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/27 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Santa Clause Rally The market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the S&P 500 pushing to newer highs. However, there's an undercurrent of caution with the risk of corrective consolidation. The main focus is on major supports at 4813-16 and 4800 to maintain the rally. A sustained hold above these levels will be crucial for the continuation of the upward trend. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Yesterday marked a significant rally, reaching a crucial resistance zone at 4830-34. With the holiday week in effect, trading volumes are expected to be lower as institutional and professional traders step away from the market. The current long position from 4799 is being trailed with a stop, indicating a protective strategy against market fluctuations. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Stock Market Momentum: The S&P 500 is approaching record levels, carrying momentum into the shortened trading week after marking an eight-week winning streak. Investors are looking forward to the "Santa Claus Rally," a period of traditionally good days for stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Mortgage Rate Trends: Mortgage rates have dropped significantly, reaching their lowest level since mid-June. This decrease comes after the Federal Reserve indicated a likelihood of cutting the federal funds rate in the upcoming year. The lower rates are expected to increase homebuying activity in 2024. Global Market Movements: US equity futures edged higher, and the dollar remained stable as markets resumed post-Christmas. Asian stocks were mixed in light trading, with gains in emerging Asian currencies against a weakening dollar. Deal news, including the sale of Manchester United, lifted shares of some US-listed companies. Economic Forecasts: Analysts predict the global economy will slow further in 2024 despite easing pressures. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, the state of the US and Chinese economies, and the US presidential election will play significant roles in determining economic outcomes. Stock Market Review: The S&P 500 is on track to finish 2023 with a gain of about 21%. Despite various challenges, including inflation and rising interest rates, the US economy has shown resilience, and corporate profits are on the rise. Technology stocks have regained their lead, with mega-cap tech stocks contributing significantly to market gains. Gold Market: Gold prices have increased, heading for their first annual gain in three years. This rise is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US currency. Corporate News: Intel plans to invest $25 billion in Israel after securing incentives. Manchester United's ownership saga concludes with a $1.3 billion deal involving Ratcliffe. Emerging Markets reflect on the lessons learned from a misjudged bet on China's post-pandemic recovery. Oil remains in focus amid geopolitical tensions, with the market watching for potential impacts on supply and prices. Nigeria has allowed banks to open accounts for crypto firms, signaling a shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: 4822, 4813-16, 4800, 4795, 4788-86, 4778, 4768, 4751-56, 4741, 4730-34, 4719, 4714, 4709, 4698, 4693, 4680-84, 4673, 4665-68, 4658, 4647, 4641, 4635. Note: Particular attention is given to 4800 and 4751-56 for potential scalping opportunities in a level-to-level move. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: 4830-34, 4860-63, 4879-82, 4905, 4925, 4948-53, 5005. Note: 4854 and 4860-64 are identified as potential reaction zones for those interested in counter-trend trading. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market continues its bullish trajectory, with a focus on defending major support levels to sustain the upward trend. Key Strategy: Vigilance at key support levels, particularly 4813-16 and 4800, is critical. A defense of these areas could maintain the rally's momentum. Upside Targets: Key targets include 4830-34 and 4860 if support levels hold. The market's ability to stay above these supports is crucial for continued bullish sentiment. Risk Consideration: Be mindful of the thin holiday trading volume and potential abrupt market moves. Even as the trend remains positive, sudden shifts are possible and require quick adaptation. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: A break below key supports at 4813-16 or 4800 could signal a shift to bearish sentiment. Critical Levels: The 4813-16 zone, followed by 4800, are pivotal. A sustained move below these levels could indicate a failed breakout and a potential sell-off. Short Entry Points: Should the market show weakness and break below the supports, these levels might serve as entry points for bearish trades, with a focus on managing risks and seeking confirmation. Downside Targets: Initial bearish targets would be the next major support levels, with each breaking point potentially leading to further downward momentum. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The bullish perspective depends on the market's ability to hold above 4813-16 and 4800. Maintaining these levels could lead to further gains. Key Levels to Watch: Close monitoring of 4813-16 and 4800 is essential. These levels serve as the barometer for market sentiment on the day. Resistance Testing: Reaction at resistance levels will provide insight into the market's strength or weakness, influencing the day's trading approach. Risk Awareness: Preparedness for volatility is key, especially in a holiday trading context with potentially unpredictable moves. Strategy Adaptability: Flexibility and responsiveness to market changes will be critical in navigating the day's trading successfully. Today’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The market's interaction with the identified support and resistance levels will dictate the short-term trend. The focus is on how these levels hold or break to determine the immediate trading strategy. Profit Strategy: A level-to-level approach is advised, with a readiness to capitalize on confirmed bullish or bearish movements. The plan includes being prepared for rapid shifts and ensuring trade entries and exits are well thought out and strategic. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/26 Trading Plan - Last Weeks Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautious Holiday Trading As we continue the holiday week, trading volume and liquidity are expected to decrease significantly with the exit of institutional money and many professionals on break. This typically results in choppier and less predictable price action, increasing the potential risk for traders. The holiday trading mode is expected to bring more subdued movements with occasional sharp volatility. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Last week, there was a noted failed breakdown of the overnight 4785 low, which occurred late in the trading day. The focus remains on key support and resistance levels, with a cautious eye on the choppier market dynamics typical of this time. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Stock Market Momentum: The S&P 500 is approaching record levels, carrying momentum into the shortened trading week after marking an eight-week winning streak. Investors are looking forward to the "Santa Claus Rally," a period of traditionally good days for stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Mortgage Rate Trends: Mortgage rates have dropped significantly, reaching their lowest level since mid-June. This decrease comes after the Federal Reserve indicated a likelihood of cutting the federal funds rate in the upcoming year. The lower rates are expected to increase homebuying activity in 2024. Global Market Movements: US equity futures edged higher, and the dollar remained stable as markets resumed post-Christmas. Asian stocks were mixed in light trading, with gains in emerging Asian currencies against a weakening dollar. Deal news, including the sale of Manchester United, lifted shares of some US-listed companies. Economic Forecasts: Analysts predict the global economy will slow further in 2024 despite easing pressures. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, the state of the US and Chinese economies, and the US presidential election will play significant roles in determining economic outcomes. Stock Market Review: The S&P 500 is on track to finish 2023 with a gain of about 21%. Despite various challenges, including inflation and rising interest rates, the US economy has shown resilience, and corporate profits are on the rise. Technology stocks have regained their lead, with mega-cap tech stocks contributing significantly to market gains. Gold Market: Gold prices have increased, heading for their first annual gain in three years. This rise is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US currency. Corporate News: Samsung has delayed production at its new US factory until 2025. Intel plans to invest $25 billion in Israel after securing incentives. Manchester United's ownership saga concludes with a $1.3 billion deal involving Ratcliffe. Emerging Markets: Goldman Sachs reflects on the lessons learned from a misjudged bet on China's post-pandemic recovery. The bank had anticipated a significant rally in Chinese stocks and a broader boost to emerging markets, which did not materialize as expected. Oil Market: Oil remains in focus amid geopolitical tensions, with the market watching for potential impacts on supply and prices. Cryptocurrency: The ousted Binance founder CZ's fortune grew by $25 billion in 2023, and Nigeria has allowed banks to open accounts for crypto firms, signaling a shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: 4795: A pivotal major support, holding key significance for upcoming trading dynamics. 4779-83: Another crucial major support zone, acting as a potential turnaround point in the market. Minor Support Levels: 4772, 4766, 4750-55, 4741, 4734, 4724, 4719, 4708-10, 4699, 4690, 4682, 4678, 4670, 4660-63, 4648, 4641, 4630-33, 4624, 4614, 4606. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: 4800: The first line of major resistance, potentially leading to more significant market reactions. 4808 and 4812-15: Described as a heavy, messy resistance zone; crucial for the day's trading strategy. Minor Resistance Levels: 4825, 4830-33, 4838, 4847, 4853, 4860, 4867, 4877, 4883, 4890, 4894, 4905-07, 4914, 4925. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market is showing continued bullish momentum, with the S&P 500 futures (ES) indicating resilience and an upward trajectory. Key Strategy: Focus on established support zones, particularly around 4740-45, to initiate long positions. It's critical to avoid impulsive trading and wait for the market to come to these levels. Upside Targets: Maintaining above 4740-45 could propel the market towards the next levels of interest at 4767 and 4788. For a significant bullish continuation, eyes are on surpassing the 4810-12 threshold. Risk Consideration: Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, be mindful of recent selling pressures and market shifts. The landscape can change swiftly, requiring constant vigilance. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market stands at a pivotal point; a drop below the 4740 support could shift the trend to bearish. Critical Levels: The 4740-45 zone is crucial; a breakdown here could serve as an early bearish indicator. Short Entry Points: If weakness appears, consider short positions near 4736 but ensure to avoid rash decisions. Wait for confirmatory signals. Downside Targets: A confirmed bearish trend could open opportunities towards 4715 and 4705-08 as initial targets for bearish profits. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The bullish outlook is contingent on the market's ability to hold and rebound from the 4740-45 support area. Key Levels to Watch: Keep a close watch on 4740-45 for support and 4767 & 4788 for potential resistance or breakout points. Resistance Testing: Be attentive to how the market reacts at established resistance levels, as a breakthrough or rejection can dictate the next move. Risk Awareness: Anticipate increased volatility and the possibility of both upward and downward movements, staying ready to adapt as needed. Strategy Adaptability: Flexibility in strategy will be key, especially in responding to real-time market changes and sentiment. Today’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The immediate focus will be on the market's interaction with the 4740-45 area, which will likely determine the short-term direction. Profit Strategy: Employ a level-to-level trading approach, ready to capitalize on either bullish continuation or bearish reversal, depending on how the market unfolds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/21 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Muted Santa Rally Expectations Despite some anticipations of a quieter Santa Rally this year, the market is expected to navigate through a "choppier" holiday season than usual. Flexibility and adaptability in trading strategies are emphasized over predictions. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Historically, the "Santa Rally" begins with the final trading session before the holidays, typically from December 22nd to January 4th. Over the last 30 years, this period has averaged a seasonal return of +1.4%. Yet, a significant drop-off in market activity is expected during the holidays, potentially leading to lower-quality trading. 🌏 The Markets Overnight: Market Closure and Projections The IMF has lowered GDP growth projections for advanced economies to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, highlighting global economic slowdown concerns, while central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, raise interest rates to address persistent inflation. Emerging markets exhibit mixed economic trends, with weakened industrial activity but prospects for a 'Soft Landing' in some countries. China's growth has slowed in Q4, India's GDP outlook is positive for 2024, Brazil considers rate cuts, and Argentina faces peso devaluation issues. The US economy remains resilient with robust growth, buoyed by consumer spending and a strong job market, as the Biden-Harris Administration's policies aim to promote real wage growth and a healthy labor market in a context of reducing inflation. 🔍 Key Structures: Important Trading Zones Key structures to watch include a broad chop region between 4750-4810. The first major support zone lies at 4777-81, with any dips into the 4730s that recover from yesterday's low signaling strong buy opportunities. 📉 Support Levels: Support Zones for Trading Support levels are set at 4793, 4788, 4777-81 (major), 4772 (major), 4761, 4756, 4745-50 (major), 4737, 4732-34 (major), 4719, 4712, 4705-08 (major), 4698, 4692, 4685 (major), 4675, 4666, 4661 (major), 4648, 4641, 4625-30 (major), 4616, 4606 (major), 4591-93 (major), 4585. 📈 Resistance Levels: Identified Resistance Points Key resistance levels include 4797 (major), 4811 (major), 4816, 4822, 4830 (major), 4838, 4845, 4849, 4855-60 (major), 4871, 4876, 4883-86 (major), 4893, 4903-06 (major). 📝 Trading Plan: Strategy for Market Engagement The trading strategy focuses on holding the 4745-50 area, quickly buying up dips below this level. Bulls aim to maintain the 4777-81 zone on dips, test the 4811 level, and form a base for a potential upward movement through 4811. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market retains a strong bullish trend, with the ES (S&P 500 futures) demonstrating resilience. Key Strategy: Concentrate on key support levels, such as 4740-45, for long positions, and avoid chasing the market. Upside Targets: A hold above 4740-45 could lead to a bounce towards 4767 and potentially 4788. A major upward move necessitates reclaiming 4810-12. Risk Consideration: Stay vigilant of market shifts; despite the bullish trend, the recent selling adds complexity. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market is at a critical juncture; losing the 4740 level could indicate a bearish turn. Critical Levels: Monitor the 4740-45 range closely for any bearish signals. Short Entry Points: In case of weakness, consider shorts with a trigger around 4736, while avoiding impulsive trades. Downside Targets: If a bearish trend confirms, look to profit from support levels at 4715 and 4705-08. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market may continue its bullish trend if 4740-45 sustains. Key Levels to Watch: Focus on critical supports at 4740-45 and resistance levels at 4767 and 4788. Resistance Testing: Monitor whether the market tests and breaks through higher resistance levels. Risk Awareness: Prepare for increased volatility and a bi-directional market movement. Strategy Adaptability: Be ready to adjust strategies based on market responses. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The focus is on the performance of the 4740-45 level for potential upward movement. Profit Strategy: Aim for level-to-level trading, adapting to both bullish and bearish scenarios. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/20 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Shifting Tides Amidst Volatility Despite a recent downturn, the market remains in a robust uptrend. The S&P 500 Futures experienced a red day, triggering a sell-off, but the bulls are still in play, awaiting a reclaim of certain resistance levels. Critical for the bulls is the 4740 area; holding above this level could initiate upward momentum. However, a failure to maintain this could signal the start of a downward trend. 🌐 Pre-Market Overview Asian-Pacific Markets: Declines across most indices, with Hang Seng and Nikkei showing notable drops, indicating regional market uncertainty. European Markets: A mixed scenario with FTSE 100 gaining, while DAX shows minor losses, reflecting varied investor sentiment in Europe. Commodities: Oil and natural gas prices are down, indicating potential shifts in energy market dynamics. Gold and silver show minor declines amidst a volatile trading environment. Currencies: The Euro and Pound are slightly up against the USD, while the Yen shows a noticeable decline, hinting at currency market fluctuations. U.S. Treasurys: Minor changes in yields across various maturities, signaling a stable bond market environment. U.S. Indexes: Russell 2000 and other major indexes like NASDAQ 100 and NYSE experienced declines, pointing towards a cautious stance among U.S. investors. Sector Movements: Technology and consumer staples sectors are down, reflecting broader market apprehensions. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Political Developments: Michigan considers removing Trump from the 2024 ballot, similar to actions in California, while Republicans consider strategies to disqualify Biden from ballots. This points to heightened political maneuvering ahead of the 2024 elections. Media and Entertainment: Warner Bros Discovery is potentially eyeing a mega-merger with Paramount, shaking up the entertainment industry. Additionally, Mediaite has declared its list of the most influential figures in media, including notable names like Hannity, Morning Joe, Megyn Kelly, and Drudge. International Tensions: Putin escalates military pressure, threatening to invade EU countries and expecting Western support for Kyiv to dwindle. In Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping warns President Biden of his intention to take Taiwan by any means necessary, raising global security concerns. Health and Society: A study warns of a looming 'Pandemic of Inactivity,' potentially the next global health crisis. Meanwhile, the concept of 'sick shaming' leading to overmedication is gaining attention, and there are discussions about whether the USA is in a 'silent depression.' Technology and Science: Developments in tech include scientists creating a vaccine to lower cholesterol and the use of AI to predict life expectancy with chilling accuracy. Additionally, reports reveal that Twitter assisted the Pentagon in a covert online propaganda campaign. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: 9 and 21 showing a bearish trend while sitting above the 55. Overall Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish 📉 Support Levels Major: Watch for 4748, 4740-45, 4734, 4730, and 4724 for immediate support. Other crucial levels include 4715, 4705-08, 4698, 4690, 4684, and 4678. Minor: Key minor support levels to monitor include 4669, 4660-63, 4656-58, 4647, 4644, 4634, 4626, 4618-20, and 4613. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: Resistance levels to keep an eye on are 4756, 4766, 4772, 4781, 4788, 4797-95, 4810-12, 4820, 4826-29, 4838, 4853, 4860, 4868, 4875, 4882-86, 4903, 4913, 4924, 4933, 4946, 4952, 4962, 4976, 4990, 4497, 5006. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: Despite recent selling, the market's strong uptrend persists. The ES (S&P 500 futures) has demonstrated resilience, but now requires reclaiming key resistances to initiate upward movement. Key Strategy: Focus on key support levels like 4740-45 for long positions, with a cautious approach. It's crucial not to chase but wait for a test and acceptance of these levels. Upside Targets: If 4740-45 holds, there's potential for a bounce to 4767, and further to 4788. A major move upwards requires reclaiming the 4810-12 area. Risk Consideration: Be aware of the shift in market dynamics; while bullish sentiment is strong, the recent sell-off introduces new variables. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market is at a pivotal point; a failure to hold 4740 could signal the start of a downward trend. Critical Levels: Pay close attention to the 4740-45 range. A breakdown below this could shift the market sentiment to bearish. Short Entry Points: In case of weakness, consider short positions with a trigger around 4736, ensuring disciplined trading without chasing. Downside Targets: If the bearish scenario plays out, subsequent support levels at 4715 and 4705-08 become relevant for profit-taking. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market might continue its bullish trend if 4740-45 holds, but traders need to stay alert for any shifts. Key Levels to Watch: Critical supports at 4740-45, and resistances at 4767 and 4788 will be crucial in determining the market's direction. Resistance Testing: If the market maintains its bullish stance, higher resistance levels could be tested. Risk Awareness: The market is more volatile with expanded bi-directional action expected. Traders should remain vigilant. Strategy Adaptability: Be prepared to adapt strategies based on the market's response at these pivotal levels. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The focus will be on whether 4740-45 holds for a potential bounce, or if it fails, shifting the attention to lower support levels like 4715 and 4705-08. Profit Strategy: Aim to take points level to level, with a clear plan for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/19 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Sustained Bullish Sentiment The market has recently demonstrated a notable positive trend, marked by nine consecutive days of gains. This upward movement might align with the phenomenon known as a "Santa Rally," traditionally observed in the stock market towards the end of December and the beginning of January. Typically, this rally is attributed to increased holiday spending, year-end investor optimism, and portfolio adjustments for the new year. However, it's important to maintain a disciplined approach to trading, focusing on specific levels and indicators rather than relying solely on seasonal sentiment. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Political Landscape: Trump's 2024 ballot status is in limbo due to Colorado Supreme Court's ruling. Economic Movements: The dollar's struggle amid rate cut expectations, yen's weakening, and global stock market responses. Gold Market: Prices rise as the dollar and yields ease. Regulatory Actions: Swiss and ECB's new measures post Credit Suisse collapse. Southeast Asia's Tech Scene: Advised to find sustainable profitability amid funding challenges. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4810, 4806, 4794, 4788, 4781-78, 4772, 4766, 4760, 4753, 4747, 4737, 4734-30, 4719, 4708-10, 4702, 4698, 4692, 4680-78, 4673, 4662-65, 4658, 4650-52, 4647, 4634, 4630, 4624, 4618, 4606. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4815, 4822, 4826-28, 4836-38, 4851, 4860, 4869, 4877, 4883, 4893, 4902, 4906, 4912, 4918, 4925, 4933, 4946, 4953, 4964, 4977, 4990, 4995, 5005. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market maintains a bullish stance with the ES (S&P 500 futures) showcasing nine consecutive green days, indicating a strong upward momentum. Recent Performance: The bullish run has been robust, with the market consistently closing at daily highs, underlining the strength of the current trend. Key Strategy: The focus is on waiting for price discovery. Important to monitor key support levels, particularly 4810 and 4794, for potential entry points. Upside Targets: If support holds, especially at 4810 and 4794, the market is poised to test higher levels at 4825-27, then potentially extend gains towards 4838 and 4860. Risk Consideration: While the bullish sentiment prevails, traders should remain alert for any sudden shifts in market dynamics. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: Despite the strong bullish trend, there is a risk of the market transitioning to a "sell bounces" regime, especially if the ES fails to sustain its momentum. Critical Levels: Watch for any breaks below key supports, especially 4810, 4794, and 4778-81. A decline below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment. Short Entry Points: Should the market show weakness, particularly below the 4810 and 4794 levels, short positions could be considered, with a focus on disciplined trading and risk management. Downside Targets: In a bearish scenario, subsequent support levels like 4781-78, 4772, and lower may come into play, offering potential profit-taking points for short positions. Overall Outlook: While the current sentiment is bullish, traders should be prepared for a potential reversal and adjust their strategies accordingly. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market is expected to maintain its bullish momentum, following nine consecutive green days in the ES (S&P 500 futures). Key Levels to Watch: Critical support levels at 4810 and 4794 will be in focus. Their resilience or breach could dictate market direction. Resistance Testing: If bullish sentiment persists, watch for a potential push towards higher resistance levels, especially around 4825-27, leading up to 4838 and 4860. Risk Awareness: Despite the ongoing bullish trend, traders should stay vigilant for any sudden shifts, considering the recent extended run. Strategy Adaptability: Be prepared to adjust strategies in response to market reactions at these pivotal levels, especially if the market shows signs of reversing its current trend. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/18 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Trend with Cautious Watch The market continues its upward trajectory, indicated by 8 consecutive green days, but now faces a critical juncture just under major resistance. While the bullish trend is dominant, traders should be vigilant for any trend reversals. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Tesla's Wage Increase: Impacts on union interest at the Nevada Gigafactory. North Korea's ICBM Launch: Escalating geopolitical tensions. Market Reactions: Mixed signals with rising Treasury yields and fluctuating European and Asian markets. Venezuela-Guyana Territorial Dispute: Agreement to resolve peacefully. China's Economic Challenges: Deflation risks highlighted by falling pork prices. Crypto Political Influence: Super PAC's significant funding for the 2024 elections. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: New EU sanctions amidst Putin's re-election plans. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4788-90, 4781, 4772, 4766, 4763, 4753, 4744, 4730-34, 4726, 4719, 4708, 4698-4700, 4692, 4684, 4673, 4663-66, 4654, 4648, 4634, 4630, 4618-20. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4796, 4806, 4810-12, 4817, 4825-27, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4873, 4883, 4900, 4906, 4910, 4923-25, 4932, 4945, 4953, 4962, 4976, 4990, 5002. Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Key Levels: 4781, 4772. Strategy: Maintain the breakout, targeting 4808-10. Risks: Be cautious after 8 green days, the trend could shift. Bear Case Analysis: Target Short Entry: If 4773 fails, consider shorts with caution. Profit Targets: Watch for potential dips towards 4708. Strategy: Discipline in profit-taking is key, watch for market traps. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Discipline and Strategy: Monitor 4781 and 4773 supports closely. The market remains bullish, but a shift is possible at any moment. Monitor support and resistance levels diligently and adjust strategies as needed. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/17 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish The market has been on a steady upward trend, with the March ES contract rolling from December front month to March. The key support and resistance levels have been identified, focusing on the 4756-58 to 4786 range. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The discovery of a large tunnel near the Gaza border by Israel has sparked concerns about the adequacy of its prewar intelligence. In the U.S., the Biden campaign has sharply criticized Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric, comparing it to Adolf Hitler. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair has cautioned against irrational market optimism despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. As inflation shows signs of decline, there's skepticism about whether corporate America will lower prices. Meanwhile, stock futures remain stable following a seven-week rally in major market averages. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4770-72, 4766, 4756-58, 4750, 4743, 4731-34, 4724, 4719, 4704-08, 4699, 4692, 4687, 4683, 4678, 4674, 4764-66, 4660, 4654, 4647, 4644. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4776, 4781-83, 4786, 4794, 4808-10, 4817, 4826, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4871, 4877, 4883, 4900-05, 4920, 4925, 4933, 4945, 4953, 4963, 4975, 4985-90, 5002. Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis Recent Trend: The S&P 500 futures (ES) maintain a bullish momentum with 7 consecutive green weeks. Premise: Expecting further uptrend, consolidating within the 4756-4786 range. Key Zone: 4756-58, critical for bulls. Watch for consolidation and potential breakout towards 4808-10. Strategy: Bulls anticipate a continuation pattern within this range, eyeing a push to higher resistance levels. Risk Factors: Key risk includes a breakdown below 4756, leading to potential backtest towards lower supports. Bear Case Analysis Premise: Potential for a downturn if key support at 4756 is breached. Target Short Entry: Around 4752 post-breakdown of 4756. Profit Targets: Aim for 4740-43 and lower if the breakdown occurs. Strategy: High-risk/reward breakdown trades; caution advised due to their challenging nature. Execution: Avoid impulsive trades; focus on clear setups and key levels. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/14 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Stay light on OPEX day due to the potential for choppy trading. Look for a potential base building in the 4756-83 range for a potential leg up to the 4804-08 zone. If 4756 fails, prepare for a potential pullback. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a lot 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Markets rally strongly on FOMC Dot Plot forecasting 3 rates cuts totaling up to 0.9% in 2024. European Central Bank and the Bank of England each hold rates steady this morning. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4772, 4756, 4740-43, 4710-05, 4660-65 Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4780-83, 4804-08, 4845, 4860-63 Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis Scenario Overview: Recent Trend: ES (S&P 500 futures) has experienced a strong bullish trend, marked by six consecutive green days. Bull Case Premise: Continuation of the uptrend through pattern formation and support maintenance. Key Levels and Patterns: Support Zone: 4756, pivotal for bulls to maintain control. Target Range: 4756-4783, seen as a potential consolidation area. Upside Objective: A move towards the 4804-08 zone, acting as a magnet level. Strategy and Risks: Pattern Building: Bulls expect ES to form a continuation pattern within the target range, setting the stage for another leg up. Risk of Breakdown: Failure to hold 4756 increases the risk of a backtest towards the 4710-05 area. Execution Caution: Traders should be wary of false breakouts and maintain strict risk management. Bear Case Analysis Scenario Overview: Bear Case Premise: A break below key support leading to a downward move. Key Levels and Patterns: Critical Support: 4756, the level below which breakdown trades become viable. Target Short Entry: Around 4752, following a failed bounce at 4756. Profit Targets: First target at 4740-43, capturing the move below the day's low. Strategy and Risks: Breakdown Trades: These are high risk/reward but have a low success rate (60% expected to fail). Execution Skill: Requires skill to execute successfully; not advisable for traders uncomfortable with these odds. Rule of Thumb: Avoid chasing the price; wait for a clear trade setup and reaction at the key level. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/13 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed, China down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts COP28 deal calls for the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 and the eventual phase-out of fossil fuels. Today’s quarterly FOMC Economic Projections will contain an updated Dot Plot showing projects for the future of the Fed Funds Rate. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4758-60, 4734, 4710 Minor: 4743, 4720, 4701 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4772, 4780-85, 4808 Minor: 4793, 4812, 4820 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: For bullish scenarios, holding above major supports such as 4758-60 and then pushing towards levels like 4772. Bearish Scenario: For bearish scenarios, a focus on support failures, particularly at 4710-12, would signal a potential trend change and warrant a shift towards short positions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/12 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Very near unchanged after declining 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down slightly but well off the lows 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts CPI inflation prints very slightly hotter m/m, inline with expectations. COP28 hits roadblock over fossil fuels phaseout language. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels: 4755: Long-term target 4685-4697: (current) 🔍 Key Support Levels: 4630-4635: (current) 4573 & 4580: Significant resistance-turned-support zone. 4556-4558: Indicating a choppy trading range. 4540-4542: Acting as support post-breakout. 4514 & 4497: Important back-testing zones. 4450: Immediate backtest point previous post-CPI announcement. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4668, 4635-4630, 4593-4596, 4565-4560 Minor: 4661, 4655, 4647, 4642, 4617-4620, 4606, 4585, 4576, 4547, 4534, 4524, 4511-4513, 4504, 4485, 4475, 4466, 4458, 4449, 4433, 4426, 4410-4415, 4405, 4392, 4386, 4377, 4366, 4353, 4342, 4331, 4320, 4310 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4685-4697, 4710-4713, 4723, 4734, 4743, 4753-4756, 4768, 4775, 4788, 4794, 4805-4810, 4816, 4826, 4838, 4860, 4869, 4885 Minor: 4673, 4697, 4718, 4734, 4743, 4768, 4775, 4788, 4794, 4816, 4826 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Watch key support at 4668 and 4635-4630 for potential entry points on a reclaim. Bearish Scenario: Resistance at 4685 could offer short opportunities if it fails to break, but with the trend being bullish, counter-trend trades are not preferred. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/11 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Both the 4-hour and daily data indicate a bullish sentiment for the S&P 500 Index Futures, with closing prices consistently above the 9, 21, and 55 EMAs. 🔄 Market Recap Last Thursday's rally from 4556 to 4590 occurred on a textbook failed breakdown. This was followed by another squeeze after the NFP release last Friday, due to yet another failed breakdown. The market exhibited a strong performance with closing prices maintaining above key EMA levels, indicating sustained bullish momentum. This trend was consistent across both the daily and 4-hour charts. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4632. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4642. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels: 4755: Long-term target, significant in current market context. 4680-4685: Crucial for validating bullish trend strength. 4658: First major breakout zone. 4642-4645: Key current market zone. 4620-4625: Potential for breach due to significant basing. 🔍 Key Support Levels: 4573 & 4580: Significant resistance-turned-support zone. 4556-4558: Indicating a choppy trading range. 4540-4542: Acting as support post breakout. 4514 & 4497: Important back-testing zones. 4450: Immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4556, 4539-42, 4520, 4496, 4463, 4450, 4431, 4408, 4389 Minor: 4548, 4530, 4524, 4512, 4507, 4485, 4475, 4443, 4436, 4418, 4414, 4399 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4573, 4580, 4590-93, 4618-22, 4640-42, 4657, 4680-84, 4711, 4727, 4747, 4755 Minor: 4565, 4597, 4609, 4633, 4648, 4666, 4693, 4704, 4722, 4739-41 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Sustaining above key supports and breaching resistances, particularly at 4620-4625 and 4658, suggests a continuation of the bullish trend. Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, notably below 4556, could signify a shift to bearish sentiment. 💡 Wrap Up In conclusion, last week was good for the market with a bullish trend. However, some hangover is likely today, and the market will most likely be waiting for CPI and FOMC releases to commit to further moves. As long as 4647-4540 holds on dips, the market can continue the path higher to 4660, 4667, and 4685 target. If 4640 fails, we test 4624, potentially leading to a sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
3
12/8 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish The current market sentiment is bullish, as indicated by various key factors. The closing prices are consistently above the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 9, 21, and 55 periods in both the 4-hour and daily datasets, highlighting a positive trend. Additionally, the market is maintaining levels above key support zones while approaching significant resistance levels. This bullish sentiment is further supported by global market trends, with most markets showing upward movement, robust crude oil prices, and strong yield performances. 🔄 Market Recap November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis EMA 9, 21, 55: Similar to the 4-hour data, the daily data also shows a bullish sentiment with closing prices above the EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, similar to the 4-hour data, and the closest resistance level is at 4632. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis EMA 9, 21, 55: All are indicating a bullish sentiment as the closing prices are above these EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, and the closest resistance level is at 4642. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels 4755: A significant long-term target connecting August 2022 and July 2023 highs. It's a major magnet/target in the current market context. 4680-4685: Represents a re-test or slight overthrow of the August highs. It's crucial for validating the strength of the bullish trend. 4658: A critical resistance level that was tested on June 20th and July 25th, 2023. Previous failures to sustainably clear this zone led to a correction, making it the first major breakout zone above 4620-4625. 4642-4645: A key zone in the current market structure. 4620-4625: This represents the upper green dotted line in the chart, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. This level was a target for some time and is now more likely to be breached due to significant basing. 🔍 Key Support Levels 4573 (and 4580): This zone capped rallies in the last week and a half, with multiple failed attempts to clear it. It's seen as a significant 2-week resistance cluster now turned into support. 4556-4558: A key zone tested multiple times (32 times in the last week), indicating a range of choppy trading between 4556 and 4580. 4540-4542: A multi-month level, it was key resistance in June and July 2023, and following a breakout, it has been acting as support. 4514: An important zone from mid-November. 4497: Serves as major support, back-testing the channel resistance dating back to highs of December 2022 and February 2023. 4450: The immediate backtest point of the line after the CPI announcement on November 14th. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: If the market sustains above key support levels and breaches resistance levels, especially 4620-4625 and 4658, the bullish breakout trend may continue. Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, particularly below 4556, could indicate weakening of the bullish sentiment, leading to a potential bearish shift. 💡 Wrap Up The market is showing bullish sentiment, but vigilance is key. Monitor resistance and support levels for changes in market dynamics. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/7 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral The immediate market conditions lack a strong bullish drive, thus leaning towards neutrality in the short term. 🔄 Market Recap November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking one lane of the two-lane section and reducing transits by more than 50%. It’s since been cleared but the situation highlights ongoing difficulties in global shipping. 🔍 Key Structures 4755: A long-term target, connecting the August 2022 and July 2023 highs. 4680: Represents a re-test of the August highs. 4658: Crucial resistance encountered in mid-2023. 4639-42: A pivotal zone. 4618-22: The green dotted line on the chart, marks a significant trendline. 4573 (with 4580 just above): A two-week resistance cluster. 4556: A repeatedly tested support level. 4539-42: A notable horizontal zone, acting as a key resistance in mid-2023. 4520: A significant level from mid-November. 4497: A channel resistance tracing back to late 2022. 4450: The immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement in November. 4430: The bull market trendline from late 2022 to early 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Maintain a long position as long as the 4556 support holds. Key supports at 4556 and 4539-42 safeguarding the upward trajectory. Bearish Scenario: Prepare for a bearish shift if support at 4556 or 4542 fails. This scenario would involve breakdown trades below these support levels, with a high risk-reward ratio and the potential for substantial sell-offs. 💡 Wrap Up As long as the support levels at 4556 (with the lowest being 4542-39) are maintained, there's potential for the ES to continue operating within its current range and possibly revisit levels like 4573, 4580, then dip to 4590, followed by another dip, before potentially approaching the vicinity of 4620. If the 4542 level fails, we might see the ES embarking on a downward trajectory, moving from one level to the next. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/5 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral We remain in consolidation, holding between 4550-55 support and 4575-80 resistance. 🔄 Recap After rallying 460 points from October 27th to November 22nd, ES has been stuck in consolidation for two weeks. The market has been largely stuck between 4550-55 support, and 4575-80 resistance, making the round trip countless times. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged 🌏 Major Global Catalysts CEOs from the eight largest US banks will testify before the Senate Banking Committee today, voicing their opposition to a rule that would increase capital requirements by 20%-25%. 🔍 Key Structures 4755: A far off target for those with a big picture view 4680: A re-test of the August highs 4658: Important resistance on June 20th and July 25th 2023 4640: A key zone 4618: Green-dotted line in the chart 4573 (with 4580 just a little above): A 2 week resistance cluster 4556: A key zone, tested 25+ times in the last week 4542: A multi-month level, it's been support since Nov 20th 4520: A key zone from Nov 15th-20th 4497: Important channel resistance dating way back to December 2022s and February 2023s highs 4450: Immediate backtest point of the line we lifted off after CPI on Tuesday November 14th 4430: The rising bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 and March 2023 lows 📉 Support Levels 4563, 4556, 4548, 4542, 4540, 4531, 4520, 4513, 4507, 4497, 4484, 4470, 4462, 4450, 4444, 4436, 4430, 4424, 4418, 4413, 4408 📈 Resistance Levels 4573, 4580, 4587, 4590, 4600, 4609, 4618, 4622, 4633, 4640, 4646, 4658, 4666, 4675, 4680, 4693, 4702, 4710, 4720, 4724, 4729, 4737, 4746, 4755 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: The plan is to remain long as long as 4556 keeps holding. Bearish Scenario: If 4542 fails, we should see a short-term bearish trend takeover. 💡 Wrap Up The market remains in consolidation, with a bullish structure. The focus is on trading the consolidations, with optionality to be exposed during the trend. The plan is to remain long as long as 4556 keeps holding, with a focus on failed breakouts/breakdowns. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/5 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish The S&P 500 Index Futures have been hovering in a choppy zone between 4550-4580, presenting a challenging environment with limited predictability. Despite the uncertainty, the overall trend remains slightly bullish, contingent on the key support level of 4555 holding firm. It's imperative for traders to acknowledge the inherent risks in trading, as no strategy is foolproof. 🔄 Recap Navigating the current market conditions requires a flexible and tactical approach, focusing on trading from one significant level to the next. The previous week concluded with a notable surge on Friday, characterized by a failed breakdown and the formation of a bull flag. Contrastingly, today's session was predominantly characterized by short trading opportunities. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Down 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Moody’s cuts China credit outlook to negative on growing debt risks US foreign policy funding in doubt. 🔍 Key Structures 4755, 4658-66, 4635, 4618, 4573, 4556, 4542-45, 4520-25, 4494-96, 4448, and 4424-26. 📉 Support Levels 4573, 4568, 4564, 4556-58, 4549, 4542-45, 4535, 4531, 4525, 4520, 4511, 4507, 4495-96, 4484, 4472, 4462, 4452, 4447, 4436, and 4425-30 📈 Resistance Levels 4580, 4590, 4597, 4601, 4609, 4618, 4623, 4632, 4636, 4642, 4647, 4658, 4666, 4680, 4692, 4700, 4706, 4720, 4725, 4736, 4744, and 4753 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Bulls should focus on maintaining the 4556-58 and 4542 support levels to sustain upward momentum. Potential additions in bullish conditions could be considered within a bull flag formation, particularly between 4573-68 and below 4580. Bearish Scenario: For bearish traders, actionable opportunities arise only if support levels fail. Trades below these supports should be approached with caution and skill. 💡 Wrap Up The trend continues to lean towards bullishness. As long as the 4555 level is sustained, the market has the potential to consolidate within this range and possibly advance towards 4618. However, a breakdown below 4542 could trigger selling pressure into bearish territory. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
2
12/4 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish As December unfolds, the market sentiment leans towards a neutral to slightly bearish outlook. This cautious stance reflects the global financial landscape's current dynamics and the anticipation of key economic events. 🔄 Recap November stood out as the most bullish month of the year, showcasing a significant rally of +470 points. This aligns with its historical trend as one of the strongest months over the past five decades. However, December starts with a mixed sentiment, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Large caps down, small caps up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Supreme Court's engagement with the tax code marks a notable event. This, combined with the seasonal strength of November and early December trends, sets a complex backdrop for current market movements. 🔍 Key Structures The key structures to watch out for are 4755, 4658-60, 4630-35, 4618, 4573-75, 4550-52, 4542, 4520, 4494-96, 4445-47, and 4424. 📉 Support Levels Support levels to watch out for are 4597, 4587-90, 4580, 4575, 4568, 4561, 4556, 4551, 4542, 4532, 4525, 4520, 4514, 4510, 4502, 4494-96, 4484, 4473, 4457, 4445-48, 4436, 4430, 4424, 4418, 4409, 4399, 4388, 4375-80.. 📈 Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch out for are 4609, 4618, 4625, 4630-35, 4642, 4647, 4658-60, 4666, 4676, 4680, 4698, 4703-06, 4715, 4721, 4733, 4742, and 4753. 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the uptrend if the 4575-80 support holds. Key targets include 4590, 4607-09, and 4620. Bearish Scenario: Watch for a breakdown below 4575, which could indicate a shift to a bearish trend. Focus on short positions below major resistance levels. 💡 Wrap Up The market is currently in a bullish trend, with the price breaking out of the consolidation range. The key to profiting from this trend is to not chase moves and instead trade alongside the institutions after the traps. This requires careful management of trades and a focus on failed breakdowns and breakouts. Today's key is to observe the market and wait for price discovery. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
Should we look to the future, present or past? Paradox!A thought from me to you: "Maybe madness only comes to the people who think the most!" For those who like to think outside the box, I personally think that the future dictates "our present". Yes, because the future we desire will dictate what we must do in the present, so that our future can come to fruition. What a thing, right? Looking for a soft landing? It seems to me that we are experiencing a soft landing, the soft landing theorized by many. I'll just say that December will be the month that defines the direction for the SPX index, and I hope that companies and governments will show us the direction we should follow in 2024. Who can save the savings? We cannot forget that SPX is the most important index in the world. We also cannot forget that China is "one of the little engines" alongside the USA that consumes a large part of the raw materials produced in the world, so if that little engine were to fail for a single quarter, it would be enough for us to review all our plans for 2024. What does the present hold for us? Below I show you a downtrend line that is about to be broken. Let me show you my newest madness, after all, madness only comes to those who think the most. Or maybe the market is crazy and could actually form this pattern. Honestly, I don't know what else to study, because every day is something different (QE). Below I leave another image, the image of the first long-term upward pivot formed after the health crisis. Can we draw any conclusions? Do your analysis and good business. Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss. See other graphical analyzes below.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MacD_Bollinger
12/1 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Entering December, market sentiment is mixed with a cautious outlook. Traders are closely watching Jay Powell's speeches for potential market-moving insights. After a record-breaking November, markets are consolidating, suggesting a period of uncertainty. 🔄 Recap November concluded with a mix of bullish runs and consolidation phases. The S&P 500 Index Futures were dominated by a tight consolidation range between 4555-4575, with 4555 emerging as a crucial support level. The market ended November with a late-day squeeze but spent the majority of the session in choppy trading. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Unchanged 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global CatalystsAnticipating Jay Powell speeches today 🔍 Key Structures 4658: A significant resistance level from mid-2023. 4620-22: A pivotal trendline connecting key market highs. 4573-75: A recent resistance zone. 4555-50: A heavily tested support level, crucial for market direction. 4533-36: A key support, previously a resistance. 4510-14, 4493-96, 4447-50, 4424: Additional support levels to monitor. 📉 Support Levels 4550-52 (major) 4561, 4568 4533-36 (major) 4520, 4525 4510-14 (major) 4506 4493-96 (major) 4472, 4479 4447-50 (major) 4420-24 (major), 4418 4399, 4405 (major), 4375-77 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4572-75 (major) 4580 (major), 4590-92 4597 4607-09 (major) 4620-22 (major) 4631-33 (major), 4643 4648, 4657 (major) 4666, 4672, 4683 4693, 4701 (major), 4710 (major) 4720, 4731 (major), 4742, 4752 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: As long as the 4550-55 support holds, a continuation of the uptrend is likely. Breaking above 4575 could signal further upward movement, with targets at 4590, 4607-09, and 4620. Bearish Scenario: A break below 4550 could indicate a shift to a bearish trend, with potential short positions at major resistance levels. Watch for 4550 and 4533-36 as critical points for breakdowns. 💡 Wrap Up The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with 4550-4575 as the dominant range. Traders should watch for a breakout or breakdown from this range for directional clues. As always, maintaining discipline and focusing on key levels is essential for successful trading. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/29 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Today's market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with global markets showing modest gains. The anticipation of the COP28 Climate Change Conference in Dubai is influencing global sentiment, and the US Index Futures are trending upwards. Notably, crude oil is experiencing a strong surge. 🔄 Recap The S&P 500 Index Futures experienced a volatile day, initially surging to a high of 4597, then retracted to the 4555 level. This fluctuation indicates an ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish forces in the market. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The COP28 Climate Change Conference is commencing in Dubai, potentially influencing energy and environmental sector stocks. 🔍 Key Structures 4618: A critical upper trendline connecting key historical highs. 4573-75: A pivotal resistance zone that has capped recent rallies. 4555: Strong support level, consistently tested over the past week. 4534-36: Key support zone, previously a significant resistance. 4508, 4489-93, 4446, 4418: Other notable support levels to watch. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major) 4547, 4542 4534-36 (major) 4525, 4514 4508 (major) 4489-93 (major) 4484, 4473 (major) 4462, 4452, 4445 (major) 4437, 4430, 4424, 4418 (major) 4410, 4399, 4375-80 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4563, 4573-75 (major) 4580, 4588-90, 4597 4609 (major), 4618 (major) 4622, 4628-31 (major) 4642, 4648 (major), 4658 (major) 4668-70, 4681, 4692, 4700-05 (major) 4716, 4720, 4731 (major), 4741, 4754 (major) 📝 Trading Plan For Bulls: Focus on the 4556 and 4534-36 support levels. A rebound from these levels could indicate bullish momentum, offering opportunities to enter long positions. For Bears: Watch for a breakdown below 4556. A sustained move below this level could signal bearish momentum, with potential short opportunities at major resistance levels. 💡 Wrap Up With mixed signals and a failed breakout, today's market presents a challenging environment. Traders should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on key support and resistance levels for guidance. As always, maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy is crucial. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
2
11/28 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment Neutral to Short-Term Bearish: Current indicators suggest a cautious approach, with a lean towards a short-term bearish outlook amid mixed global signals. 🔄 Recap In today’s issue, we delve into the performance of S&P 500 Futures, analyzing the recent consolidation phase after a notable rally. We examine the tight trading range that has defined the market over the past week, emphasizing caution in these choppy conditions. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Hawkish Fed Governor Waller turns dovish saying rates are in the right place. European CPI inflation reports coming in lower than expected. 🔍 Key Structures We've identified crucial structures ranging from 4620-25 as a broad upside target, down to 4418, a pivotal bull market trendline. The ES is currently consolidating under 4580, indicating a potential move on the horizon. 📉 Support Levels 4536: A prominent horizontal zone, critical for maintaining the current bullish structure. 4508: A support level that played a significant role in sustaining the rally after the November CPI release. 4485: A pivotal support-turned-resistance that could be retested. 4445-37: Key support zones that could act as a staging ground for future rallies. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-25: A major trendline target, marking the intersection of historical highs. 4580: A strong resistance level that has been tested and held thus far. 4565: An immediate resistance that could dictate short-term price action. 📝 Trading Plan For Wednesday’s session, we focus on key support and resistance levels. The plan includes monitoring for base building above 4555 for a possible move to 4580+ while also considering short positions on breakdowns below key support levels. 💡 Wrap Up The market remains in a tight balance, with a persistent bullish undertone. It’s crucial to navigate this choppy phase with a disciplined trading plan, recognizing the potential for both upward continuation and downward reversal. Stay tuned for updates on major catalysts that may impact the market dynamics. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
11/27 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Recap Today's newsletter provides a comprehensive look at the current market situation, emphasizing the S&P 500 Futures and the essential strategies for upcoming trading sessions. 📈 The Markets Overnight Asia: Mixed Europe: Down a bit US Index Futures: Down slightly Crude Oil: Up a bit Dollar: Down slightly Yields: Up slightly Crypto: Up slightly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Saudi Arabia is actively seeking allies for a production cut before the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday. 🔍 Key Structures A significant breakout from a 4-month downtrend channel occurred on November 14th, influenced by CPI data. This bullish setup has sustained its momentum, with minor sell-offs being quickly absorbed. The S&P 500 Futures are currently consolidating under 4580, hinting at a potential upcoming move. 📉 Support Levels 4536-42: Crucial zone, acting as a major support. 4507: Notable support from mid-November. 4491-95: Key level from September's downturn. 4445, 4436-32: Secondary support zones. 4385: Represents the lower bound of a potential pullback. 📈 Resistance Levels 4620-22: Ultimate target, connecting historical highs. 4580: Recent resistance, tested last Wednesday. 4565: Immediate resistance zone. 📝 Trading Plan Remain alert for support levels, especially around 4555 and 4535, to hold for continuing the bullish trend. Key resistances at 4580 and above may offer opportunities for adding strength. Watch for breakdowns below 4535 as a sign of a potential trend reversal. 💡 Wrap Up The current market condition is a blend of strong bullish trends and consolidation phases. It's vital to stay aware of major support and resistance levels and adapt strategies accordingly. The market remains in a delicate balance, with potential for both continuation and reversal of the current trend. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro