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1/30 Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Anticipated Economic Slowdown in 2024: Predicted slower growth due to higher interest rates and various economic factors. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy: Continued high rates to manage inflation, impacting borrowing and economic activity. Current Mortgage Rates: Decrease in mortgage rates suggests positive implications for the housing market. 📝 Today's Recap: Tech Giants' Earnings Reports: Microsoft, Alphabet, and other tech companies' earnings are key indicators for the tech sector's performance. Current Job Market Status: Strong U.S. job market with low unemployment rates across sectors. Tech Layoffs: Large-scale layoffs in the tech sector due to over-hiring and inflation. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Economic Data Reports: GDP, housing, and inflation reports provide insights into economic health. International Relations and Policy: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and their economic impact. Corporate Earnings and Market Movements: Insights from major corporate earnings influencing market trends. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 4949, 4940-42 (Major) 4936 (Major), 4925-27 (Major) 4921, 4914, 4909 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 4954 (Major), 4959 4963 (Major), 4968 4973, 4977-79 (Major) 📅 Trading Plan for Tuesday: Bull Case: Maintaining support above 4895 to foster continued upward momentum. Bear Case: Monitoring for breakdowns below key support levels, indicating potential market shifts. Strategy: Focus on key support and resistance levels, adapting to real-time market conditions. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Long
by spytradingpro
1/29 Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Federal Reserve and Bank of England Meetings: Expectations of unchanged rates in both meetings, with a focus on the Fed's dovish stance and persistent inflation in the UK. Tech Earnings Reports: Alphabet's earnings spotlight, alongside AMD, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Amazon, are critical for assessing tech sector health. Economic Data Releases: U.S. economy's 3.3% growth in Q4 2023 and other key global economic indicators are influencing market directions. 📝 Today's Recap: Corporate Earnings and Economic Resilience: Analysis of 4Q23 earnings showing signs of economic resilience, with a focus on technology and communication sectors. Buy Now, Pay Later Trend: Reflects the impact of inflation on consumer behavior, indicating shifts in household financing methods. Market Movements: Record highs in S&P 500 and Nasdaq, energy sector performance, and trends in crude oil prices and gold values. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Global Market Insights: Key events including Fed and BoE meetings, US payrolls, eurozone GDP, and global PMIs provide a holistic view of the economic landscape. Investment and Market Trends: Insights into potential market risks, including U.S. debt concerns and the outlook for M&A activity. Treasury Yields and Fed Decisions: Analysis of treasury yield movements in anticipation of the Fed's policy decision. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 4914 (Major) 4903-05 (Major) 4897 (Major) 4881 4876-78 (Major) 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 4914 4918 (Major) 4925 (Major) 4936 4942-44 (Major) 📅 Trading Plan for Monday: Bull Case: Focused on maintaining support levels, especially above 4895, to foster continued upward momentum. Bear Case: Monitoring for breakdowns below 4895, indicating a potential shift to a bearish trend. Strategy: Emphasize level-to-level trading around key support and resistance levels, adapting to real-time market conditions. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Long
by spytradingpro
1/26 Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Canadian Financial Results and Economic Outlook Forum: The Department of Finance Canada is set to publish financial results for November 2023. Additionally, the 35th Annual Economic Outlook Forum, presented by Scotiabank, is taking place in Vancouver, aiming to provide insights into what businesses can expect from the local and national economy in the year ahead. Keynote speakers include Scotiabank's chief economist Jean-Francois Perrault, Jobs Minister Brenda Bailey, and Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon. Earnings Reports: American Express Co. and Colgate-Palmolive Co. are reporting their earnings, which are closely watched by investors for signs of corporate health and consumer spending trends. European and US Stock Markets: European stocks have risen, driven by strong earnings and expectations that euro-area interest rates may start falling from April. However, US stock futures indicate a pause after six days of gains, with Intel Corp.'s bleak forecast impacting technology stocks and premarket trading. Global Credit Spreads: Corporate bond investors are actively buying new issues, taking advantage of elevated yields before potential interest-rate cuts by major central banks. The Bloomberg Global Credit Corporate index shows yield premiums on notes tightening to the lowest since late January 2022. US Economic Data: The US economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the last three months of 2023, surpassing economists' expectations. This strong growth, along with moderating inflation, fuels optimism that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates this year. Leading Economic Indicators: The leading economic index from The Conference Board, which historically predicts economic downturns, showed a decline in November and is expected to have a slight decrease for December. This comes amid a debate on the reliability of this index in the post-COVID-19 economic recovery context. Housing Sector Update: Updates on the housing sector are expected, with forecasts of a pickup in sales of both new and existing homes in December. Mortgage rates are anticipated to fall, potentially boosting home buying activity in the future. Investment Strategies for 2024: Financial experts are advising investors to consider opportunities and not to sit on large amounts of cash due to fear of market downturns. Risk management remains a key discussion point for investment strategies in 2024. US Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy: US prices rose moderately in December, with the annual increase in inflation below 3% for a third straight month. This trend could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 4907 4898 (Major) 4895 (Major) 4889 4881 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 4914 4918 (Major) 4925 (Major) 4936 4942-44 📅 Trading Plan for Friday: Bull Case: Focus on maintaining key support levels, especially above 4895, to foster continued upward momentum. Bear Case: Monitor for breakdowns below 4895, indicating a potential shift to a bearish trend. Strategy: Emphasize level-to-level trading around key support and resistance levels, adapting to real-time market conditions. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Long
by spytradingpro
1/25 Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: U.S. Economy Growth Surpasses Expectations: The U.S. economy's better-than-expected growth rate of 3.3% in Q4 2023, surpassing predictions of 1.8% growth, could buoy investor confidence. Comcast's Earnings and Broadband Subscribers: Comcast's stronger-than-expected earnings and subscriber data could impact the telecommunications sector and broader market sentiment. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 4898 4891-92 (Major) 4888 4882 4877 (Major) 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 4908 (Major) 4914 4925-28 (Major) 4936 4941 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Bull Case: Focus on maintaining support levels, especially above 4878, to continue the upward trend. Bear Case: Watch for breakdowns below support levels, particularly at 4878, to identify bearish trends. Strategy: Adapt to real-time market conditions, emphasizing level-to-level trading around key support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Long
by spytradingpro
1/23 Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: S&P 500 notches third straight record high close 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 4887-90 (Major) 4883 (Major) 4875 (Major) 4866 4860 (Major) 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 4901 4907-09 (Major) 4914 4925-29 (Major) 4935 📅 Trading Plan for Wednesday: Bull Case: Focus on maintaining support levels, especially above 4828-31, to continue the upward trend. Bear Case: Watch for breakdowns below support levels, particularly at 4875, to identify bearish trends. Strategy: Adapt to real-time market conditions, emphasizing level-to-level trading around support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Long
by spytradingpro
1/19 Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Market sentiment for CME_MINI:ESH2024 Futures is being influenced by a range of factors including stock market performance, ECB's interest rate policies, inflation rates in the Euro Zone, China's economic outlook, and corporate earnings reports. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Stock Market Today: The record closes of major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reflect investor confidence and are key indicators of market sentiment. Interest Rate Expectations: The ECB's potential delay in starting rate cuts and its implications for the global market. Inflation in the Euro Zone: Rising inflation rates in the Euro Zone, which may affect the ECB's monetary policy decisions. China's Economic Outlook: China's slower-than-expected economic recovery and its potential impact on the global market. Corporate Earnings Reports: The importance of earnings reports from major companies in driving market movements. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels include 4867, 4860-63, and 4841. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels are identified at 4877, 4880-83, and 4903. 📅 Trading Plan for Monday: Bull Case: The bull case involves maintaining key support levels, particularly 4860-63, to facilitate an upward trend towards higher resistance points. Bear Case: The bearish scenario starts with the failure of support at 4860, potentially leading to significant market downturns. Strategy: The plan emphasizes adapting to market conditions, with a focus on the 4860-4883 range. Key is to be flexible and responsive to real-time market dynamics, especially around support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
1/18 Trading Plan for $ESH2024📊 Market Sentiment: Bearish Market sentiment for CME_MINI:ESH2024 is currently being shaped by several key factors including the European Central Bank's interest rate expectations, inflation in the Euro Zone, China's economic outlook, U.S. market trends, and corporate earnings reports. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Interest Rate Expectations: The ECB's potential delay in starting rate cuts affects market expectations, hinting at sustained high interest rates. Inflation in the Euro Zone: The rise in Euro Zone inflation may impact the ECB's monetary policy, affecting market dynamics. China's Economic Outlook: China's slower-than-expected post-COVID recovery and economic policy decisions remain a focal point for investors. U.S. Market Trends: The shift from Big Tech to sectors like healthcare and the anticipation of key inflation readings influence market sentiment. Corporate Earnings Reports: Earnings from major companies like Infosys, JPMorgan Chase, and others are closely watched for insights into various sectors' health. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels for CME_MINI:ESH2024 include 4766, 4758-61, and 4746. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels are identified at 4775, 4782-85, and 4802. 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Bull Case: The bull case involves maintaining support levels, particularly 4758-61, to facilitate an upward trend towards higher resistance points. Bear Case: The bearish scenario continues with the failure of support at 4758, leading to potential market downturn. Strategy: The plan emphasizes adapting to market conditions, with a focus on the choppy range of 4760-4785. Key is to be flexible and responsive to real-time market dynamics, especially around support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
1/17 Trading Plan for $ESH2024📊 Market Sentiment: Bearish Market sentiment for CME_MINI:ESH2024 Futures is influenced by the Federal Reserve's approach to rate cuts, global economic slowdown, China's economic policy, shifts in market sectors, and developments in the wind energy sector. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Federal Reserve's Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve's methodical stance on rate cuts has impacted market sentiment, leading to a downturn in stocks. Global Economic Slowdown: The World Bank's prediction of a continued global growth slowdown in 2024 adds to market uncertainties. China's Economic Outlook: China's post-COVID economic recovery, affected by real estate and export issues, is a focal point for investors. Sector Shifts in the Stock Market: Investors' movement away from Big Tech towards sectors like healthcare signals a significant market shift. Wind Energy Sector Outlook: An upgrade in the wind energy sector by Bank of America indicates a more optimistic future outlook for this industry. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels for CME_MINI:ESH2024 include 4787, 4780-83, and 4757. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels for CME_MINI:ESH2024 are identified at 4795, 4800-02, and 4833. 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Bull Case: The bull case involves maintaining key support levels, especially 4780-83, to facilitate an upward trend towards higher resistance points. Bear Case: The bearish scenario starts with the failure of support at 4780, potentially leading to a significant market downturn. Strategy: The plan focuses on adapting to market conditions within the choppy range of 4780-4817, with a cautious approach to trading in these unpredictable conditions. Key is to be flexible and responsive to real-time market dynamics. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
1/15 Trading Plan - Monday Recap📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral Market sentiment for CME_MINI:ESH2024 Futures is shaped by a variety of factors, including sector rotation, inflation reports, earnings estimates, equity market outlook, and corporate earnings. These factors collectively influence investor behavior and market dynamics. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Sector Rotation and Market Performance: A shift from Big Tech to sectors like healthcare is observed, with healthcare emerging as a strong performer. The overall market shows resilience with rallies in major indices. Inflation Reports and Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts: Upcoming inflation readings are anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, particularly regarding rate cuts. Earnings Estimates and Market Volatility: The market's performance is expected to be closely tied to 2025 earnings expectations, with any deviations potentially causing volatility. Equity Market Outlook: Barclays projects a more sober equity market in 2024, with potential for healthy consolidation after a significant rally. Corporate Earnings and Financial Sector Performance: The performance of major financial institutions and companies in different sectors will provide insights into the overall market health. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels for ES1! ESH2024 Futures include 4808, 4802, and 4796. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels are identified at 4822, 4833, and 4860. 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Bull Case: The focus is on maintaining key support levels, particularly 4802 and 4808, to drive upward momentum and target higher resistance levels. Bear Case: The bearish scenario involves the failure of support levels, with a focus on potential breakdown trades and their associated risks. Strategy: The plan emphasizes flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions, with an eye on consolidation patterns and potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. Key is to adapt to real-time market dynamics around support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/12 Trading Plan - Friday Recap📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral Market sentiment for CME_MINI:ESH2024 is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, upcoming major elections, economic growth forecasts, market performance predictions, inflation and job market concerns, and oil price movements. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Geopolitical Tensions and Elections: Ongoing conflicts and upcoming major elections in countries like the US, India, EU, and UK are closely watched for their potential impact on global markets. Economic Growth Forecasts: Morgan Stanley predicts a global growth slowdown, with Europe facing minimal growth due to energy supply shocks. Market Performance and Predictions: Varied predictions for major indices like the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 indicate a mixed market outlook. Inflation and Job Market Concerns: The strong U.S. job market might sustain inflationary pressures, impacting Federal Reserve's rate decisions. Oil Prices and Market Movements: Rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks and mixed performance in stock markets are key factors affecting market dynamics. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels include 4808, 4802, 4787, among others. These levels will be critical in determining potential buying points in the market. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels are identified at 4813, 4821, 4832-34. These levels represent potential barriers where selling pressure might increase. 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Bull Case: The focus is on maintaining key support levels, particularly 4777 and 4802, to drive upward momentum and target levels like 4845 and 4860-68. Bear Case: The bearish scenario hinges on the failure of support levels, with 4777 as a critical point. Breakdown trades should be approached with caution and skill. Strategy: The plan emphasizes flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions, with an eye on consolidation patterns and potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. Key is to adapt to real-time market dynamics around support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Reacceleration of inflation presents a trouble for the FEDYesterday, the market became slightly spooked by the release of higher-than-expected inflation numbers in the United States. The immediate reaction of the SPX to the news was negative, with the index erasing its early gains; the same price action could be observed in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nevertheless, market indices recovered much of their losses by the close and have been trending sideways. The reacceleration of inflation in the United States represents a hurdle for the FED in its quest to tame inflation (likely causing it not to cut interest rates at the next meeting at the end of January 2024 or in March 2024). In addition to that, it could shatter the investors’ expectations of premature rate cuts if no significant improvement is seen in the next print. In turn, that could negatively affect the stock market down the road. In regard to technicals, the resistance at $4,800 continues to play a crucial role; if the price manages to break above it and close there (ideally for at least two consecutive days), it will be very positive. The resumption of growth in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart will also bolster a bullish case. However, the flattening of these indicators and a failure of the RSI to break above 70 points will be slightly concerning. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 5-minute graph of the SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the moment when inflation numbers were released in the United States. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
8
4750 Target met, trends in some conflict nowSo, we did hit that 4750 range, and ended up hitting it within just a few hours of my assessment that was the next area for us to head. That opens up a few trends to take us lower, specifically the 1hr and 2hr, as seen below in the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4722 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4757 Uptrend (1/5/2024) Lower High 2Hr - 4757 Uptrend (1/5/2024) Lower High 3Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4759 Downtrend (12/20/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4762 Uptrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High So now the shorter timeframe trends are in some conflict with the longer timeframe trends, and being I capitalized well last week, I am in no rush to get between this fight. Economic Data; I could see the public debt today being a big issue, but the major one this week will be CPI data on Thursday, as covered in the video. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be a concern as well. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Bullish Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
3
1/11 - Thursday Trading Plan for ESH2024📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Market sentiment CME_MINI:ESH2024 is currently shaped by various factors including the latest US inflation data, Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, the kickoff of the earnings season, Asia-Pacific market movements, and global economic growth projections. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: US Inflation Data: The CPI showed a higher-than-expected annual rate, indicating persistent inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Market anticipation for potential rate cuts is high, with investors closely monitoring economic indicators. Earnings Season Kickoff: Reports from JPMorgan, Delta Air Lines, and Citigroup are expected, which could significantly impact market sentiment. Asia-Pacific Market Movements: Notable gains in Japan's Nikkei 225 and mixed movements in other indices, with the Bank of Korea holding interest rates steady. Global Economic Growth Projections: Slowing global economic growth due to high interest rates and geopolitical risks is expected. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels include 4808-10, 4787, 4778-81. These levels will be critical in determining potential buying points in the market. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels are identified at 4820, 4834, 4860-66. These levels represent potential barriers where selling pressure might increase. 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Bull Case: Following the CPI release, the key for bulls is maintaining support levels, particularly 4787 and 4808-10, to sustain the upward momentum towards the 4835 level. Bear Case: The bear case involves the failure of support levels, especially in the context of CPI data volatility, with a focus on potential breakdown trades. Strategy: Caution is advised due to the complexity of trading on CPI release days, with a focus on failed breakdowns and consolidation patterns. The plan emphasizes protecting profits and adapting to real-time market conditions, particularly around key support levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/10 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Mixed Various factors are shaping the market sentiment, including global economic slowdown, inflation trends, interest rate outlook, stock market performance, and political and geopolitical risks. 📝 Today's Recap The focus is on consolidation and range expansion, with potential trading opportunities at key support and resistance levels. The plan emphasizes flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions, especially regarding the key support at 4785. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News Global Economic Slowdown: The UN predicts a decrease in global growth from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, influenced by high-interest rates and potential conflict escalations. Inflation Trends: While global inflation is expected to decline, it remains high in many developing countries, with significant impacts, especially in the least developed regions. Interest Rate Outlook: Divergence in expectations around interest rate cuts exists between market participants and central banks, affecting market sentiment. Stock Market Outlook: Equity markets, particularly the S&P 500, face a mixed outlook for 2024, with moderate earnings growth anticipated. Political and Geopolitical Risks: Significant political events, including major elections and ongoing global conflicts, pose risks to market stability. 📉 Support Levels to Watch Key support levels are identified at 4791, 4785-87, and 4777. The significance of these levels lies in their potential to indicate where buying might occur. 📈 Resistance Levels to Consider Key resistance levels are identified at 4795, 4802, and 4815. These levels are crucial as they represent potential selling points in the market. 📝 Trading Plan for Wednesday Bull Case: Bulls are in control above 4735, and the current market structure may be forming a large bull flag, indicating potential for upward movement. Bear Case: Short-term bearish scenarios hinge on the failure of support levels, particularly 4785, which could lead to breakdown trades. 🛑 Disclosure This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions, and remain adaptable in the face of market volatility.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/9 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish The market remains vigilant as it navigates through complex geopolitical and economic landscapes. Ongoing geopolitical issues and economic forecasts are at the forefront of investors' minds, influencing market movements and strategies. 📝 Today's Recap A period of lower conviction trading is expected in the wake of the rally. The market might see a flag formation above 4781, targeting higher levels with potential dips. If 4781 fails, a more extensive retracement of the rally may be on the cards. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News Geopolitical Tensions: The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East are adding to global market volatility, affecting shipping routes, and contributing to inflationary pressures. US Economic Outlook: The US economy's resilience in avoiding a recession in 2023 sets a cautiously optimistic tone for 2024, albeit with expectations of a slowdown. Global Political Risks: Significant elections across key economies, including the US presidential race, are casting a shadow of uncertainty over market dynamics. Interest Rate Environment: The shift in interest rate policies is prompting investors to re-evaluate and personalize their investment strategies in anticipation of changing yield landscapes. Global Economic Slowdown: The UN's projection of a slowdown in global growth for 2024, due to a confluence of factors, is shaping cautious investment approaches. 📉 Support Levels to Watch The market is closely monitoring supports at 4782 and 4757-59, with an eye on major levels down to 4592. The response to these supports, especially after the recent rally, will be crucial in determining the market's direction in the short term. 📈 Resistance Levels to Consider Key resistance levels include 4795-98 and 4816-20, with major levels extending up to 4910-15. The market's reaction to these resistances, particularly in the context of recent bullish momentum, will be telling of its strength and sustainability. 📝 Trading Plan for Tuesday Bull Case: The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, potentially forming a bull flag. Bulls aim to maintain control above 4736, with a focus on consolidating gains and targeting higher resistances. Bear Case: The bear scenario involves a retracement of the recent rally, with a watchful eye on the 4781 level. Breakdown trades below key supports are on the radar, but they come with high risk and require skillful execution. 🛑 Disclosure This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions, and remain adaptable in the face of market volatility.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/8 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautious Watchfulness Amidst Global Changes The markets are attentively eyeing the evolving geopolitical landscape and economic indicators. With global elections and central bank policies in focus, investors are navigating through a blend of optimism and careful scrutiny. 📝 Today's Recap Late in the day, some long exposure was added back at 4727, reflecting a cautious optimism and readiness to leverage any positive shifts. As the market oscillates between the identified support and resistance levels, traders are advised to maintain a disciplined approach, especially in potentially choppy zones. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News Geopolitical Tensions and Elections: Markets are closely monitoring the ongoing geopolitical issues and upcoming major elections, which contribute to the current sense of uncertainty. Central Bank Policies and Interest Rates: There's a growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve and other central banks might pivot to interest rate cuts, potentially easing the economic landscape. Economic Growth Outlook: Despite the mixed forecasts for 2024, some optimism persists, with analysts expecting varying degrees of economic performance and inflation dynamics. Stock Market Performance: The stock market enters 2024 on the back of a strong previous year, but with cautious sentiments about the potential for volatility and corrections. Influencer Advertising and the Creator Economy: The continued growth in influencer advertising and the creator economy marks a shift in marketing strategies and consumer engagement. 📉 Support Levels to Watch The market's response to the key support levels at 4735, 4728, 4709, and particularly 4698-94 will be critical in shaping the next moves. Traders are eyeing these levels for potential long positions or further sell-offs, depending on market behavior. 📈 Resistance Levels to Consider Resistance levels at 4741, 4746, and 4757, among others, are on watch. A reclaim of these levels could signify a bullish sentiment, while failure might reinforce bearish trends. 📝 Trading Plan for Monday Bull Case: Bulls aim to maintain control and push for a recovery, ideally holding above critical supports and targeting key resistance zones for potential rallies. Bear Case: Bears are watching for breaks below significant supports as confirmation of continued downtrend, prepared to capitalize on breakdown trades despite their inherent risks. 🛑 Disclosure This is not financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Market sentiment and strategies are dynamic and can change swiftly. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions and remain vigilant, especially in times of market volatility and ahead of major economic announcements.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/5 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Intense Anticipation As we navigate through a critical phase, the market remains intensely anticipative, closely watching the support and resistance levels after recent pullbacks and rallies. 📝 Today's Recap The market's latest move was a strategic "knife catch" long attempt at key 4727 support, marking an intensified focus on the immediate supports and resistances. The market remains in "sell bounces" mode, indicating a wary and responsive approach to any upward movements. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News U.S. Labor Data Release: Markets await this crucial data, which could signal the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. The outcome will be pivotal for understanding the trajectory towards a "soft landing." Optimism About the 2024 Economy: Despite earlier recession fears, economic resilience in the U.S. brings a hopeful outlook, albeit with an understanding of potential unexpected risks. Inflation Outlook: Success in reducing inflation is acknowledged, yet there's caution against premature policy shifts that might cause inflation to rebound. Stock Market Dynamics: The stock market's current momentum faces scrutiny over concerns of overbought conditions and potential for a correction amidst various global factors. Global Economic Slowdown Predictions: Forecasts suggest a deceleration in global growth due to a combination of high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and other economic pressures. 📉 Support Levels to Watch Critical supports are set at 4727, 4709, and 4694, among others, down to 4576. The market's reaction to these will be instrumental in determining the next moves. Particularly, the 4727 level is under the spotlight for potential long attempts or further sell-offs. 📈 Resistance Levels to Consider Resistance levels at 4736, 4747, and 4776 are among the key zones to watch. These levels, if reclaimed, might trigger a squeeze and potentially initiate a rally, while their failure might consolidate bearish control. 📝 Trading Plan for Friday Bull Case: Bulls need to defend 4727 vehemently and reclaim 4747 to signal a potential rally. Success here could lead to tests of higher resistances at 4757 and beyond. Bear Case: A break below 4727 could confirm bear dominance, triggering further downside towards 4709. Bears are cautioned against the high risk and potential traps in breakdown trades. 🛑 Disclosure This information is not financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Strategy and market sentiment are fluid and subject to rapid change. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Stay cautious and informed, especially during significant economic announcements.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/4 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Watchful Market focus is on key supports at 4746 and 4738 after a recent pullback. The cautious watch is due to the possibility of further downtrend or stabilization at these levels, determining the short-term market direction. 📝 Recap: End-of-Day Movement The market ended with a strategic long attempt at key 4744 support, indicating a critical juncture. Traders are closely monitoring 4746 and 4738, understanding that failure here could lead to a deeper descent, with eyes set on 4705-08 as the next major support level. 🌜 The Markets Overnight Asia: Down Europe: Up slightly US Index Futures: Down slightly Crude Oil: Up Dollar: Down slightly Yields: Up significantly Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a central focus, with potential rate cuts sparking market optimism. The economic outlook remains mixed amidst geopolitical tensions and emerging market developments. Technology and AI continue influencing market trends. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: Neutral to bearish EMA readings. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: Bearish sentiment is noted. 📉 Support Levels Key supports today include 4746, 4738, down to 4628-30. The market's reaction to these levels could signal the next move, with 4738 being especially crucial for determining the day's trend. 📈 Resistance Levels Resistance to watch for includes 4767-71 as a major hurdle, followed by higher levels up to 4906-08. A recovery could see tests of these zones, with 4767-71, previously a support, now a critical resistance. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case: Bulls aim for stabilization and recovery at 4746, targeting 4767-71 and beyond. A successful defense could lead to retests of 4795 and 4840 zones. Bear Case: Bears watch for a break below 4738 to confirm further downside, with 4705-08 as a potential target. Breakdown trades are high risk and require precise execution. Today's Strategy: Observing 4746 and 4738 for early signals. Long positions are considered at these supports with a cautious approach, and bearish scenarios are prepared for if these levels break. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Strategy and market sentiment are subject to change.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/3 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Watchful The market is cautiously watchful today, reflecting the recent volatility and key support breaches. The focus is particularly on 4778 and 4767-70 as major supports. Traders are vigilant of these levels for signs of continued bullish momentum or a deeper bearish shift. 📝 Recap: Volatility and Supports Tested Yesterday witnessed a volatile trading day ending with a classic failed breakdown of the 4773ish morning low. Despite the noise, the market remained in the broad 4795-4838 range. Key supports 4816 and 4795-98 are less attractive for longs now, with attention shifting to 4778 and 4767-70 for today's bids. 🌜 The Markets Overnight Asian Markets Asian markets closed lower, with major indices reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors. The downturn can be attributed to a mix of regional economic data and geopolitical tensions that continue to influence market dynamics. European Markets European markets are also on a downward trajectory this morning. The decline comes amid concerns over inflationary pressures and the potential for continued policy tightening by the European Central Bank, which could dampen growth prospects in the region. US Index Futures US index futures are indicating a lower open, suggesting that Wall Street may follow the global trend. Investors are weighing the latest economic data and earnings reports, which could set the tone for trading sessions ahead. Crude Oil Crude oil prices have surged strongly, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and supply concerns. The market is reacting to the latest developments in the Middle East and the potential impact on global oil supply chains. US Dollar The US dollar is showing a strong performance, buoyed by the risk-off sentiment driving investors towards the safety of the greenback. The dollar's strength is also being supported by expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance in response to persistent inflationary pressures. Yields Yield on government bonds are up significantly, as investors adjust their portfolios in anticipation of higher interest rates. The rise in yields reflects a market recalibration in the face of potential monetary policy shifts and inflation expectations. Crypto The crypto market is undergoing a pronounced downturn, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing substantial losses. This decline may be attributed to a mix of elements, including institutional disinvestment and market skepticism. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Global Economic Growth Forecasts: J.P. Morgan: Predicts U.S. slowdown, avoiding recession. Goldman Sachs: Foresees global economy outperforming expectations due to income growth, factored-in rate hikes, and manufacturing recovery. Central banks might cut rates as a recession safeguard. Interest Rate Environment: Federal Reserve held rates steady; potential cuts expected in 2024. Anticipated cuts could influence borrowing, investing, and market dynamics. Inflation Trends: Inflation cooling, yet core inflation remains above Fed's target. Persistent inflation may lead to sustained higher rates, risking an earlier economic contraction. Market Performance and Outlook: S&P 500 rose 24% in 2023; concerns of overbought conditions and market correction loom. Analysts wary of potential disappointments in earnings and impact of geopolitical risks. Geopolitical Risks and Commodity Prices: Conflicts in Ukraine, Middle East, and high energy prices pose financial stability risks. These factors could slow global economic growth and affect commodity markets. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA readings suggest a neutral to bearish sentiment. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: Bearish sentiment is indicated by EMA readings. 📉 Support Levels Major supports for today include 4778, 4767-70, 4757, and down to 4655. The 4778 and 4767-70 zones are critical after being tested extensively, with traders wary of their reduced freshness. 📈 Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4784, 4793, and up to 4908-10. Particular attention is on 4793 for a potential sell reaction if the market sees a sustained upside. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case: Bulls aim to hold above 4778 and 4767-70, with 4793 a short-term target if we base build under it overnight. Bear Case: A failure of 4767 might signal a more substantial bearish move, with 4744/4736-38 the next focus for longs. Today's Strategy: Discipline and level-to-level trading are critical in the current choppy market. Watch 4778 and 4767-70 for early indications, with 4744 and 4736-38 as potential long zones if deeper dips occur. Disclosure This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Always consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Strategy and market sentiment are subject to change.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1/2 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Watchful The market has shown signs of strain under recent volatility, breaking through several key support levels such as 4795-98. Focus is now sharply on 4777, a pivotal line that must hold to prevent further bearish momentum. Traders are approaching the market with a blend of caution and vigilance, balancing optimism with the readiness to adapt to downward trends. 📝 Recap: Steady Above Support In the latest session, the market continued its bullish trend until a breakdown at 4828 signaled potential weakness. Despite the noise typically associated with year-end trading, the market has been confined within a broad range since mid-December, with most activity between 4795 and 4838 being considered noise. The loss of support at 4828 introduces a note of caution into the previously bullish narrative. 🌜 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up strongly 🧐 Yields: Up significantly 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly 🌏 Major Global Catalysts J.P. Morgan's 2024 Economic Outlook: Anticipates a slowdown but not a recession, with potential rate cuts on the horizon. Global Economic Growth Projections: Expectations of a global slowdown to 2.6% in 2024 with mild recessions possible in Europe and the UK. Wall Street Optimism: Wall Street remains optimistic into 2024, despite changes in EV tax credits. China's Economic Moves: Coal tariffs restoration and a rise in iron ore prices following economic strengthening pledges. CFOs' Outlook for 2024: Preparation for a year of strategic challenges and anticipation of shifts in investment strategies. Oil at Sea: Oil surges due to escalating tensions in the Red Sea, triggered by Iran deploying a warship to the region. This follows the sinking of Houthi boats by the US, which had fired upon US warplanes defending a Maersk container ship from their attack. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55 indicates a neutral to bearish sentiment. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55 indicates a bearish sentiment. 📉 Support Levels Major Supports: 4816 (major), 4808, 4795-98 (major), 4777 (major) down to 4656-58 (major). Notable Support: 4829-31 and 4795-98 are critical, with a focus on 4795-98 for potential bullish defenses. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistances: 4834, 4838, up to 5011 (major). Key Resistance: 4829 is significant as it triggered the recent breakdown, watching for its role in potential future movements. 📝 Trading Plan Levels: Immediate Support (4-Hour): 4777 (recent low) Immediate Resistance (4-Hour): 4819 (recent high) Immediate Support (Daily): 4777 (recent low) Immediate Resistance (Daily): 4828 (recent high) Bull Case: For a bullish trend, 4777 must hold. Success here targets 4840+ and 4860-63. Watch for reversals at 4777. Bear Case: Bears gain if 4777 breaks, leading to potential short positions. Today's Outlook: Monitor 4777 for market direction. Happy New Year! 🎉 Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro