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11/3 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap In the past week, we saw an impressive rally of 180 points, marking one of the best trades of the year. This was largely due to a textbook failed breakdown bottoming setup triggering on Sunday evening, demonstrating the power of the short squeeze. The rally continued for four days straight, reaching a peak at a major pivot point of 4336. This marked the largest rally since the broad correction began on August 1st. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Down Major Global Catalysts Non-Farm Payrolls come in light showing a slower jobs market Key Structures The market's structure is currently framed by several crucial levels that demand attention. The most pivotal of these is the 4135 level, which has emerged as a significant point of contention between buyers and sellers. This level served as a major resistance point and is now a key marker to watch for potential support. The 4020 level is also of note, having previously acted as resistance. As the market dynamics evolve, this level could be tested again, potentially reinforcing or invalidating its role as a resistance-turned-support. Moreover, the levels of 3928 and 3797 are essential to monitor as they have provided substantial support in the past. Any movements towards these levels could indicate a market seeking stability. The market has reached an important juncture today, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Continued strength as we head into next week would further solidify the case that this bull market still has room to run. Support Levels The foundations of our market are clearly defined by critical support levels. Our analysis highlights key supports at 3928, 4059, and 3797. These levels are pivotal, having been tested and held firm under market pressure, signifying their importance. It's imperative for investors to monitor the 4452 and 3535 zones as these levels have also served as significant support. Their role in historical price movements has been substantial, and they remain crucial for the market's underpinning. Resistance Levels As for the upside barriers, our analysis identifies resistance at 4135 and 4020. Overcoming these levels could signal strength and a potential bullish continuation. The minor resistance levels at 3905, 4594, and 4479 also pose hurdles for price advances and should be watched closely by traders. Trading Plan In the context of recent market movements, it is paramount to focus on preserving capital. The period following a significant price trend is often marked by uncertainty, making it a challenging trading environment. Caution is advised, with a preference for observing the market's reaction to key levels rather than committing to new positions. Wrap Up After a period of gains, the market appears to be entering a consolidation phase. Although the momentum is with the bulls, there is a palpable risk of pullback. Close observation is required to see if the critical support at 4269-71 holds, as it was instrumental in the last upward movement. Conversely, if the 4302 support gives way, it could lead to a notable decline, offering opportunities for bearish positions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
11/2 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This week started off with a firm yes rallying 100+ points from Friday’s low to yesterday’s high. The rally was triggered by a reclaim of 4154 on Monday, which put in a failed breakdown bottoming trigger. This led to three large green days in a row. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up except Mainland China down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down a lot 🧐 Yields: Down considerably, TLT up very strongly 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts FOMC does not raise interest rates Apple set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Key Structures Several big picture structures/levels stand out, arranged from highest to lowest. Notable levels include 4594 (minor resistance), 4479 (minor resistance), 4368 (major resistance), 4335 (minor resistance), 4307 (major resistance), 4279 (major resistance), and 4250 (major support). These are key levels to monitor, providing a snapshot of major structural points within the market. Support Levels 4250 (major), 4230 (major), 4214 (major), 4205 (major), 4135 (major), 4112 (major), 4321 (minor), 4452 (minor), and 3535 (minor). These levels are pivotal, with major supports being more critical junctures and minor supports offering additional layers of potential price stabilization. Resistance Levels 4594 (minor), 4479 (minor), 4368 (major), 4335 (minor), 4307 (major), 4279 (major), 4250 (major), 4135 (major), and 3905 (minor). These represent significant barriers to price movement, where we might expect sell-offs or reversals, with major resistances likely posing stronger opposition to upward trends. Trading Plan Following the significant rally, caution is advised against immediately purchasing at the first support. Watch for failed breakdowns, which could be opportune moments. The 4230 (major) zone is the first substantial support level for potential entry. Should the price dip further, 4214 to 4205 is another key area with a higher chance of a rebound. Wrap Up After three consecutive days of gains, it's prudent to adopt a more cautious stance on long positions. Preferably, a period of consolidation or a slight pullback would be healthy. The bull scenario hinges on holding key levels, especially around 4230 (major) and potentially 4214 as the lowest dip locations. Maintaining these levels could pave the way for an ascent to 4279, followed by a potential retest, then upward to the low 4300s, which seems to be the next target. The bulls retain the upper hand for now. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?The equities markets have spent the last three months liquidating bulls, and then liquidating bears, and then liquidating bulls, because the markets are primarily a scam for big money to sell options and have them expire worthless. No matter what system you use or whose ideas you follow, you're always just guessing, because the computers can take price and do whatever they want at any time, because there's more stocks than there are money and more money than there are stocks, all concentrated in the hands of a few select banks and funds that are really just running crowdsourced cloud algos that communicate with time stamps and decimal fractions. It's just another scam to bankrupt people and then blame you for being bankrupt. There's nobody this society hates more than poor people and depressed people, and no Communist Party-funded causes are paid to campaign on behalf of the poor and sad, unless it's to lead them to "Medical Assistance In Dying" (MAID; see Canada). 2023 started off uppy in a straight line, and there's no reason to believe that's going to correct until the timestamp on the market making algorithms has a year date of 2024. Which means that this bearish impulse is just that, a bearish impulse, that may be seeing its likely finale as early as this coming week to end the October monthly bar, as the next FOMC rate decision is October 31 and November 1. I'll provide my warning to bears and bulls alike at the early stage of the post, because I know social media and drugs have given people the attention span of children addicted to sugar and cartoons. Did you know that Li Keqiang, former Premier of China and second in command of the Chinese Communist Party behind Xi Jinping died on October 27, "of a heart attack"? I have been warning for years of two things: 1. The CCP is actually about to fall, and is almost entirely certain to take Xi, an idiot, to its grave with it. 2. The death toll from the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic (not to be confused with SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) is insanely scary and completely covered up by the regime. And now we're seeing public evidence that even the Xi Faction's main network are being dropped. Keqiang was only 68 years old, which is not very old for a CCP member. Former Chairman Jiang Zemin, the architect of the persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million students, allegedly lived to 96, by comparison, before turning to a pile of crematorium ashes and being thrown out of the very Cosmos by the Wind itself. All of the above is to say that the year end rally is likely arranged by "the controllers," and yet they're just mice and men, and what can actually unfold before we see 2024 is entirely in the hands of Heaven Himself. Let's look at monthly bars: Three mediocre red months after a series of bigly big green months isn't bearish. To the contrary, it's bullish, but it's a question of how you can finance your timing to stay solvent while the market is irrational. Weekly bars give us more clarity: What we're really dealing with is a meagre 12% dump over 15 weeks. And you're going to say to yourself that 12% is actually a lot on the indexes, and I will agree with you. However, it's really not when you take a look at a pair of twin 6-7% bounces that occurred over the span of 6 and 10 trading days in the mix. And when you pair this with the reality that the market turning around and taking out the July high is just a paltry 17% rally from the 13,750 potential reverse point, over the course of two months, bears are set up to get absolutely annihilated before the real show starts in 2024. Nothing about the way the markets have traded indicated we have bottomed *yet*. So what we do is, instead of GoInG LoNg oN ThE DiP and getting into the same trap as Disney, Paypal, and AT&T longtards, we simply look for reversals at 13,750, because it's the August of 2022 high, and 13,480-13,550, because 13,500 is a psychological number, and go long on a reversal pattern. If this theory pans out, not only will the indexes take out the July high, but, the Nasdaq especially, may very well take out the All Time High. If you were to have bought a QQQ $380 call on Friday expiring January, it would have cost you ~$3.25 ($325) with a 19% delta. If we get another 4% dump on the indexes, you can pick one up for a little more than $2 and be looking at $9-12~ after theta decay for it to be merely at the money by the end of November. That's equivalent to going long on some penny garbage like MULN or Gamestop and lotterying into a 4 bagger on the MoThER oF aLl ShOrTSqUeEzEs. The above is to tell you to stop following Wall Street Bets, Wall Street Silver, Stocktwits, and other public relations firm/marketing department-managed dumpster fires, stop gambling on 0DTEs, make less trades, go outside more, and enjoy your life while this planet still lasts. Once everything is gone, it's gone forever. Just like Atlantis, the Mayans, and the Dinosaurs.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by LordWrymouth
11/1 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This week began with ES breaking the deepest sell cycle of 2023, which saw 8 of the last 9 trading days red before Monday. The market finally capitulated and put in a green day Monday, followed by another green day Tuesday. This was in line with my plan for the week, which was to get long when 4153-47 reclaims. We reclaimed this level on Monday, back-tested, and have been moving up since then. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up slightly, volatile 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly Major Global Catalysts FOMC day! US Treasury, FOMC, Jay Powell, and macro-economic data in focus today. Key Structures There are several key structures and levels to note in the current market landscape. These include 4280, 4247-50, 4230, 4203, 4154-57, and 4113. Each of these levels represents critical resistance or support points that will play a significant role in determining market direction. Support Levels 4203-05, 4190, 4182, 4171, 4163, 4154-57, 4147, 4135, 4125, 4113, 4103, 4090, 4075-80, 4064, 4055-60, 4043, 4025-30, 4011, 4000-4005, 3987, and 3976-79. Resistance Levels 4247-50, 4262, 4268, 4277-79, 4290, 4297, 4302-05, 4314, 4322, 4336, 4341, 4350-55, 4366, 4376, 4381, 4387. Trading Plan Given the volatility and complexity of FOMC days, my strategy is to size down and focus on failed breakdowns. I am looking for a level/key low to flush, trap, reclaim, then I get in. I will be trading the plan below, level to level, one move at a time. The bull case remains in play as long as we are above 4154-57, with 4247-50 being the obvious magnet. The bear case begins on the fail of 4154-57, with a new low down to 4112 quite likely if that support goes. Wrap Up Today is FOMC day, which is notoriously the most volatile, complex, and defining day of the year. It is essential to be reactive and not to predict the action in advance. 4213-4215 was a big resistance that cleared, as seen in the 4-hour chart. My lean is we can defend 4180 on any flushes then head to 4250 target. However, I will react to whatever path price chooses - I follow price, not tell it where to go. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/31 Trading Plan -Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap The last week has been tough for the SPX, with 8 of the last 9 days seeing red. After a relentless three-day sell-off, ES managed a 70 point relief rally from Friday's lows. Yesterday, the bulls managed to reverse it and reclaim the 4147-54 level, leading to a green day. The question now is, can bulls manage green day #2, and perhaps more? The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Major Global Catalysts US Treasury lowers it’s borrowing estimate for Q4 and Q1. Key Structures 4247-50: This was the zone where it all began last Wednesday. We broke this down on Wednesday morning following 2 days of basing here. It is now a key backtest level. 4225-30: Big breakout level back in August. 4205: This area was an important support way back in May. We tested it 3x between May 10 and May 24th and it started a significant multi-month rally. 4147-53: This zone was an important level back in March, April and May. It was an important resistance in March, which then became support in May and set the ultimate May low. Support Levels 4180-82 (major), 4171, 4162, 4147-53 (major), 4136, 4125 (major), 4112 (major), 4101, 4092 (major), 4075-80 (major), 4069, 4055-60 (major), 4043, 4037, 4025-30 (major). Resistance Levels 4213 (major), 4225-30 (major), 4242, 4248-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4268, 4279, 4285 (major), 4297-4300 (major), 4314. Trading Plan Bull case today: ES did put in the framework for another attempted relief bounce, and generally, this is in play as long as we are above 4153-47, and sensible targets would be 4225-30, then 4247-50. Bear case today: Begins on the failure of 4147-53. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt. Wrap Up In summary, bulls are attempting another relief rally. These have nearly all failed for the past month, but in general, as long as 4147-53 keeps holding, the attempt is alive. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt. As always, trade tactfully and avoid impulse entries. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/30 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap The week saw a continuation of the red streak in ES, with 8 of the last 9 days being red. The week was characterized by heavy selling, with ES losing its core bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows. Since then, ES has been in “sell the bounce” mode, with periods of basing interspersed by sharp sells lower for a total of 100 points down since the loss of this level on Wednesday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit Major Global Catalysts Markets shrug off intensification of Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza. Key Structures 4225: It was a big breakout level back in August. 4205: An important support way back in May. It failed on Wednesday after hours, backtested from below on Thursday, and we continued lower. 4153: An important level back in March, April and May. It was major support on Thursday, and acted as support yet again last Friday before flushing after 5 tests. 4120-26: The zone we ultimately broke out from in late March 2023, after nearly a full month of basing. 4075-80: A critical support zone. 4050-52: A major channel support. Support Levels 4125 (major), 4117, 4112, 4102 (major), 4092 (major), 4076-80 (major), 4060, 4050-52 (major), 4045, 4025-30 (major), 4017, 4000-4005 (major). Resistance Levels 4136, 4141, 4147-53 (major), 4163, 4171, 4181, 4187-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4218, 4225-30 (major), 4237, 4248-50 (major), 4255, 4264-68 (major), 4286, 4297-4300 (major), 4314-16 (major), 4323, 4335-40 (major), 4346, 4355, 4366-68 (major). Trading Plan The bull case started today with the reclaim of 4147-54. The bear case begins on the fail of 4125. The best shorts are on bounces, not on chasing red at the lows. If we test 4125 again put in another tradable bounce/failed breakdown (perhaps to 4117) then lose it after, I’d be looking short perhaps 4116 for the next leg down to 4102 then 4092. Wrap Up Although bears remain in control, downside is heavily stretched here, and RSI extremely oversold. As long as 4154 holds, we can work down to that 4101, 4092 zone before trying to hammer a low and reclaim 4154. Since 4154 reclaimed off the bat today, we start up direct. We could see a few large green days in the day ahead, but no promises. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/27 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week was the longest stretch of consecutive red days in 2023, with the SPX experiencing 5 red days in a row for the first time this year. This week started off with a single green day, representing a 70-point bounce to reset after 5 days. We spent 3/4 of yesterday in sell mode, making it 7 out of the last 8 red days. The question is whether this bounce is another dead cat or the beginning of a sustained recovery leg. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly Major Global Catalysts Core PCE eases slightly in September Key Structures 4279: Connecting the two rising October lows acting as ultimate resistance this week. 4247-50: The key support zone for the last few days collapsed on Wednesday. 4205: Important support zone back in May. 4153: Important support zone in March, April, and May. Support Levels 4163, 4153 (major), 4147, 4135, 4126 (major), 4112, 4102-4106, 4092 (major), 4083, 4076 (major), 4060, 4048-50 (major), 4040, 4026-29 (major), 4016, 4000-4005 (major). Resistance Levels 4171 (major), 4185-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4220-23 (major), 4231, 4248-50 (major), 4259, 4268 (major), 4279 (major). Trading Plan The context remains very bearish as long as we are sub 4205. If we can hold 4153, we could see a relief bounce. If 4153 fails, we could see another deep leg lower that should see 4126 at least. For those looking for short reactions, 4220-23 and 4248-50 are the best probability spots to look for a dip. Wrap Up With Amazon earnings out, we should expect more volatility, and predictability may be difficult. However, if we can defend 4153, we could see a relief bounce with 4171 as a trigger. If 4153 fails, we should expect to continue lower to 4126, 4076. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/26 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap The past week has seen the ES experience an unusual streak of red days, with six out of the last seven days ending in the red. This rare occurrence was followed by a green day on Tuesday as part of a broader relief rally at the Sunday futures open. However, the bulls could not sustain this momentum, and we saw a return to the red. The ES has been base building between 4245 and 4275 but lost this support on Wednesday, triggering a bearish start to the session. The RSI is oversold again, suggesting a potential short squeeze may be on the horizon. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down a lot, China up slightly 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly down but rallying off earlier lows 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Mostly up Major Global Catalysts ECB holds rates steady for the first time in 10 meetings. The US House has a new speaker who’s expected to support a stop-gap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown in November. Key Structures The 4335-40 zone remains a major pivot, connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. The 4247-50 zone has been key support over the last few days, but this collapsed on Wednesday. The 4205 area was an important support in May and has been held so far this week. Support Levels 4214, 4205 (major), 4186-90 (major), 4173, 4163, 4154 (major), 4143, 4127 (major), 4112, 4108, 4101, 4093 (major). Resistance Levels 4221 (major), 4233, 4247-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4271, 4279 (major), 4290, 4297-4302 (major), 4310, 4322 (major), 4328, 4335-40 (major), 4349, 4355-59 (major) Trading Plan The bear case remains dominant until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on backtests, but for those looking at breakdown trades, the failure of 4205 and 4185-90 is key. For the bull case, a reclaim of 4220 is needed to start, then a reclaim of 4247-50. A reclaim of 4220 would open a retest of 4247-50, and from there, it's likely we could see at least a few green days back to 4300. Wrap Up While bears remain in control, there is a risk of a short squeeze, which is often sudden and violent. The general lean is that 4185-90 can hold, then try the reclaim of 4220 to push back to 4247-50, dip there, then try higher. If 4185-90 fails, we sell to 4163-53. The key is to remain reactive, trading level to level, and leaving any bullish or bearish big-picture outlook at the door before the trading day starts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/25 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap Yesterday, ES broke its 5-day red streak, the longest in 2023. The green day was expected as ES tested its primary bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows and put in a failed breakdown bottoming setup of last week's lows. This setup led me to go long on Sunday/Monday from 4215, adding to it at Monday's close at 4245. The market action played out as expected, with ES holding 4245 overnight and rallying to 4270s this morning. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts More stimulus rolled out to boost China’s economy. Key Structures Some notable structures/levels from highest to lowest include 4335-40, 4302-4297, 4275, 4245-50, 4220, and 4205. Support Levels 4268 (major), 4254, 4245-50 (major), 4238, 4237, 4220 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4196, 4185-90 (major), 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4144, 4126 (major), 4108, 4101, 4090-95 (major), 4076 (major), 4062, 4055, 4045-50 (major). Resistance Levels 4275 (major), 4280, 4297-4302 (major), 4308, 4314, 4322-25 (major), 4335-40 (major), 4347, 4355, 4366-70 (major), 4376, 4386 (major), 4395, 4402, 4408 (major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4436-39, 4449, 4460 (major). Trading Plan The bull case remains unchanged. As long as ES remains above 4245, the 4245-75 zone is considered a consolidation zone to set up a run to 4300ish, then onto 4322, 4335-40. For the bear case, 4245 needs to fail. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220. Wrap Up In summary, while tech earnings after hours yesterday could introduce trappy volatility, the general lean remains unchanged. As long as 4245 continues holding (and ideally for bulls now, 4268), we can push back to 4297-4300, perhaps dip, then onto 4322, 4335-40. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220. This level must hold for bulls. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/24 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week, ES ended with a rare 4-day losing streak, pushing the RSI(5) into oversold territory. Despite a short squeeze yesterday, ES failed to close green, ending the day around the same spot as Friday. However, a bullish hammer candle was formed, indicating potential for a bullish follow-up today. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Near unchanged 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts Yields finally pullback Key Structures The breakdown of the core uptrend line from October 2022 through March 2023 was met with a short squeeze that occurred yesterday due to a failed breakdown and hitting multi-year support. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300. Support Levels 4242-45, 4227, 4217-20, 4214, 4205, 4185-90, 4173, 4162, 4154, 4145, 4127-30, 4110, 4101, 4092-95, 4075, 4067, 4055, and 4047. Resistance Levels 4258, 4268-72, 4279, 4287, 4297-4302, 4314, 4322, 4327, 4335, 4342, 4355, 4365, 4372-75, 4385, 4396, 4404, 4408, 4412, 4418, 4427, and 4439. Trading Plan The bull case for today would see the 4242 level hold, with any dips below going no lower than 4220 and spiking back up quickly. If this level holds, ES could aim for a green day, re-testing 4270 before heading up to 4297-4300 and 4335. The bear case starts with the failure of 4220-17, with a possible short at 4217 after a clear trendline/structure forms. Wrap Up Despite 5 red days in a row, the bulls have shown potential with a failed breakdown of last week's low, a daily hammer candle, and defending the trendline from the COVID lows. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300. However, failure of 4245 could lead to a retest of 4217-20 and a new leg down to 4185-90. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/23 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap Last Friday, we saw the market slowly grind down through supports all day, with a few minor relief pops. This marked the fourth consecutive red day for ES, closing at the lows. At the same time, the RSI is nearly the most oversold this year, leading to speculation about a potential relief bounce. In this newsletter, we'll discuss the triggers and setups that led to last Friday's selling and break down the actionable trade plan for today. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts 10-year yield breaks through 5% Key Structures Last Thursday, ES lost support of a significant zone that I had been discussing daily for weeks. This zone was a confluence between the core rising bull market trendline from October 2022 and 4330-35, as well as an important horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. This zone has been referred to as the “bull/bear line” - bulls control above, bears control below. Support Levels 4215 (major), 4205, 4200, 4190 (major), 4182, 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4145 (major), 4134, 4127(major). Resistance Levels 4259, 4268-70 (major), 4279, 4287, 4297-4302 (major), 4313 (major), 4322, 4330-35 (major), 4342, 4346, 4355, 4365 (major), 4373, 4383-85 (major), 4395, 4399-4400, 4408, 4413 (major), 4424 (major) Trading Plan There is no bull case until bulls reclaim a resistance to make the case for one. The main one here is 4330-35, but this is quite a ways away now, and this is needed to set a “bottom”. Shorter-term, 4268-70 would be critical, and reclaim there should start a move back to 4300, then likely all the way back to 4330-35 for the backtest. Bears remain in control until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on bounces (backtests) rather than chasing at lows, especially when RSI is dangerously oversold. Wrap Up In summary, bears remain in control, but after 4 red days and with RSI buried, there is a risk of a short squeeze. The focus should be on reacting to the above plan, with a general lean towards a potential relief pop off 4245, before resumption down to a new low to 4222-4215 area. As always, trade what you see, not what you think. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
10/20 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap After being in corrective mode for several days, ES arrived at the technical equivalent of ground zero - the 4330-36 zone. This zone is significant as it defines the uptrend that ES has been in for exactly 1 year. The arrival at this zone resulted in some of the most volatile, trap-filled, bipolar price action in many months. The 4330-36 zone was tested 5x over the past 24hrs, with multiple liquidity grabs below and multiple resultant 30-40 point squeezes, before finally losing it late day and flushing hard. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts Jay Powell’s hawkish statements. China imposes restrictions on graphite used in EV batteries in retaliation for new US chip export controls. Key Structures Two lines have been discussed for weeks and months. One is the core bull market trendline from October 2022, which fell 4336 yesterday. The other the horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. These lines converged at the same spot at 4335-4330, causing significant price action. Support Levels 4296-4302, 4280, 4268, 4222, 4213, 4205, 4182, 4153. Resistance Levels 4330-35, 4355-57, 4373, 4385, 4413, 4418, 4439, 4460, 4468, 4480-85. Trading Plan For any "bull case" in a sustained sense, 4330-35 must reclaim. If we continue selling today, 4268 is the absolute lowest bulls can see, as below there we start down to new lows at 4222. In terms of spots to add on strength before 4335, reclaims of 4302 are of interest. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4296-4302. If ES accepts this zone overnight and clearly fails to push and builds a base - very low 4290s/high 4280s 1 spot to try a "breakdown short". The next "big short" for me comes on the fail of 4268. Wrap Up We have lost a major support at 4330-35 and put in a big red day. It is likely the level backtests from below now. My general lean is we can perhaps push lower to 4279 or 4268 lowest, then attempt to backtest 4330-35. If 4302 reclaims, we may backtest direct. New lows below 4268.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
Country Garden is unable to meet the offshore debt payments The past few days were quite choppy for SPX. However, S&P 500 E-mini Futures have not broken above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. That allows us to maintain a bearish stance and keep the recently introduced setup valid. As a result, there is not much to write about today, except for one noteworthy thing that caught our attention overnight: one of the largest Chinese real estate developers, Country Garden, failed to meet offshore debt payments (already in the grace period), suggesting default proceedings might be next. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of ES1! and Fibonacci retracement levels. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
6
10/19 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of intensive rangebound trading, making it one of the choppiest days in recent months. It ended with a late-day downward trend, following a 187-point rally from the October 6th low. The market spent nearly a week in consolidation mode, oscillating between 4366 and 4418. This range eventually tightened and peaked yesterday before finally breaking. The 4375-67 zone was a key battleground, with the market bouncing there twice before finally breaking down mid-day. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a lot 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts Yields and mortgage rates approaching two-decade highs. Key Structures The key structures to note include 4477-82, 4418, 4374-67, 4336, 4330, 4302, and 4268. Each of these represents important pivot points or trendlines that have influenced the market's movements. Support Levels 4343, 4335, 4329, 4322, 4314, 4302, 4292, 4286, 4279, 4266-68, 4258, 4251, 4233, 4227, 4224, 4213, and 4205. Resistance Levels 4356, 4367, 4373-75, 4385, 4394, 4404, 4412, 4416-18, 4432, 4338, 4449, 4458-60, 4473, 4480-85, 4494, 4505-07, 4515, 4525, 4532-35, 4542, and 4549. Trading Plan For bulls, the 4330-36 zone must hold, and 4373-75 must be reclaimed to set a "bottom". For bears, a fail of 4335 could initiate a bearish move. In both cases, avoid chasing and aim for entries close to recent highs/lows or near a recent base. Wrap Up The market is still in a corrective phase following last week's rally. The core bull market trendline from October 2022 at 4330-36 was backtested late yesterday and will be key today. If 4330-36 holds, we could backtest 4373-75 once more. If it fails, we could start a leg lower to 4302. The RSI is now extremely oversold, indicating a potential for a reversal. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/18 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap This trend continued yesterday as the ES continued to build a base between 4360 and 4410-20. Despite a lucrative run today, ES has ultimately been displaying a lot of volatility to go nowhere, as we continue to base in the 4410-20 to 4360s range. This will inevitably result in a large trend move. But in which direction? The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up slightly 🔮 Crypto: Mixed Major Global Catalysts Markets nervous as Israel-Hamas war intensifies, Biden visits Israel, and Jordan cancels planned summit with Biden and Arab leaders. Euro area inflation declines. Key Structures Some big-picture structures/levels that are notable from highest to lowest include 4478-85, 4418-24, 4375-67, 4336, and 4327. These are not comprehensive and are simply major structures to take note of, and they are not predictive. Support Levels 4390-93 (major), 4375 (major), 4367, 4355, 4343 (major), 4335 (major), 4327, 4314, 4299-4302, 4288 (major), 4278, 4269-70 (major), 4263 (major), 4255, 4244, 4224-27 (major), 4212, 4205-08 (major). Resistance Levels 4403, 4408 (major), 4418 (major), 4424, 4430, 4439 (major), 4443, 4452-55 (major), 4462, 4471, 4478 (major), 4485 (major), 4496, 4505-07 (major), 4515, 4526, 4532 (major). Trading Plan We remain in a total chop zone, and I consider everything between 4418 and 4367-75 as being pure noise. It is not hard to trade - as long as you do not over-trade. Take your level-to-level piece and quit for the day. 4390-93 is first support and we are here as of writing. This is very well tested now. One could bid it at your own risk, or safer is to wait for it to flush and reclaim something like test 90 and pop above 93. Wrap Up In summary for today: We remain in chop and 4418-4367 is total noise and the action inside it is not predictable. My general lean is that as long as 4367 keeps holding though, ES can fill out this range more then attempt a break out to 4418, 4439, 4452-55. Ideally for bulls, 4390 can hold before this, but it is not fully necessary. If 4367 fails, we should see a good sell that sees 4342 at minimum. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/17 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap Last week saw the ES snapping its five-week losing streak. The catalyst? A recapturing of its core bull market trendline from October 2022 on the 6th, triggering a robust 187-point rally. Though the week ended on a lower note, it presented a tactical buying opportunity. ES is currently in a 3-day limbo, fluctuating between 4410 and 4355 since last Wednesday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: On the Rise 🌍 Europe: A Mixed Bag 🌎 US Index Futures: Plunging 🛢 Crude Oil: Slightly Higher 💵 Dollar: Mild Gains 🧐 Yields: Strong Upward Trend 🔮 Crypto: Taking a Hit Major Global Catalysts US to Ease Sanctions on Venezuelan Oil Industry Middle East on the Cusp of Widespread Conflict Key Structures Some big-picture structures/notable levels from highest to lowest include 4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, and 4314. Support Levels 4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, 4314. Resistance Levels 4408-10, 4418, 4424, 4433, 4439-42, 4450-55, 4462, 4471, 4478, 4484-88, 4496, 4504-08, 4515, 4526, 4532, and 4543. Trading Plan The goal for Tuesday is to trade level to level, one move at a time. If we break higher today, I am not a big fan of counter-trending, but for those who enjoy it, the 4439 zone would be one spot, as would be 4450-55. If 4366 fails, I would consider a breakdown short after at 4362. Level to level profit takes. Wrap Up In summary, we had a great rally yesterday, and now it's time to build a base. My general lean here is that ES can fill out the 4408 to 4366 range. This would then produce another leg up to 4418, 4439, then 4450+. If 4366 fails, we work down the levels, likely to 4325. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/16 Trading Plan - Friday Recap and Week AheadRecap This week started off with a statistically significant rally, with 4 green days in a row, totaling a 187 point rally from last Friday’s low to this week's high. This made it the largest 4-day green stretch of the year. After 5 red weeks in a row, ES managed to put in its first green week, marking a reversal week. However, after reaching major resistance, ES began a corrective leg last Thursday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly Major Global Catalysts China’s central bank boots liquidity, leaves rates unchanged. Key Structures There are several key structures to note. The first is the 4477 backtest of the yellow triangle structure that we broke down on September 20th. The next is the 4418-24 backtest of the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping blue trendline connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. The 4336 pivot is the backtest of the 9-month base we broke out on June 1st. Finally, the 4320-22 is the core bull market uptrend line. Support Levels 4358-55, 4336, 4320-22, 4302, 4277, 4258, 4227, 4200-05. These are the levels that I would consider bidding direct. Resistance Levels 4376, 4387-90, 4406-08, 4418-24, 4444-46, 4462, 4477, 4493-96, 4508. These are the levels where I would look for reactions short. Trading Plan For bulls, the big picture case is in play as long as we are above the core bull market trend at 4320-22. For bears, the case begins on the fail of 4320-22. I don't chase, so my goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base. The best shorts are on bounces or backtests, not on chasing red. Wrap Up In conclusion, as long as 4355-58 keeps holding (4345 on any quick spikes down) I favor ES continues to fill out this new three-day range. If we continue selling deeper, 4320-22 is the absolute lowest bulls can see. A failure there puts a retest of 4250 in play. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro