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#ES_F Daily TF OutlookES broke into this bigger time frame Resistance are back in June, all the shorts who were looking for market crash or reversal got trapped below and became our Support. Cost Basis was built on top of that in 4460-4375 range, once we ran the Stops over 4487 that provided the buying to get us towards the top for this Resistance at 4666-4570 but once we got inside we went sideways in a tighter distribution range instead of getting follow through. In last weeks Weekly prep we knew that we needed to get over 4615-10 area and hold to see continuation higher from here and if not the buying up here was mostly momentum buying and if we start breaking lower stops we can continue lower back towards our Cost Basis areas. 08.01 We got that rejection from 4615-10 and opened on the gap under temp Support which meant the bid that held us up over 4590 on Tuesday was gone. Once we broke that structure and closed under we trapped buyers as supply. What can we look forward to now? Well on bigger scale in my opinion we are in a bigger time frame distribution range, and the goal is to sell product at higher prices to the trapped shorts until market cleans up and decides on direction out of here. This might take some time to clean up as we had a big party getting back up here. UNLESS Market gets under 4375-4290 area and holds under or gets over 4570-4666 and holds then we will balance in this range and do cleaning. This broken structure now becomes our supply, we have Short Stops around 4530-50-60-70 areas but also Supply is right above it so they look pretty strong for now, our lower Support stops on the other hand don't look so strong because we have been away for some time. If market takes out this 4590-80 area we could see continuation for more stops lower. Going forward we can trade this range from area to area, unless we get a bigger change of direction and visible Structure breaks. If we stay in this range once we find Support trading might not be easy as we could get more choppy days and two way trading without much follow through because now we have Supply and most likely still have buying as well. Unless we sell off hard here and break all the lower stops or bounce back over 4520 then we might see market consolidate around 4370-4500 area, holding under 4520-40 will mean continued weakness and I would think this can bring a test of 4300-4290-60 at some point by October. But we focus and gather new market generated information every day and update the outlook as anything can happen.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Weekly Update: 4256 Remains the Next Target DownThe area of ES 4256 is welcoming to all who have a trading thesis. Whether you're bullish or bearish, that remains the short term target for SP500 Futures. Once that level is reached, it becomes a jump ball. In the above chart you'll notice an impulsive 5-wave count down labeled in BLUE, and an orange count labeled abc with an arrow pointing higher. The 4256 area is of the utmost importance. The outcome of bouncing or failing decides the direction for the remainder of 2023. Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
5
9/1 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged World News Non-Farms Payrolls report reinforces the Fed soft landing narrative. Key Structures After a relentless 4-day rally, ES finally experienced a pullback. The ES put in the bottom trigger nearly a week ago, which led to a significant trade gain. However, the risk of rug pulls increased after 4 green days into a major resistance. Despite an attempt at a sell, the dip was bought again, suggesting that bears have lacked follow through. Support Levels Support levels include 4516 (major), 4502 (major), 4493, 4479-81, 4466, 4448-54 (major), 4440, 4425 (major), 4411 (major), 4400, 4384, 4378-76 (major), 4356 (major), 4348, 4335, 4320-25 (major), 4311, 4297 (major) Resistance Levels Resistance levels include 4527-31 (major), 4537 (major), 4544, 4454, 4565-68 (major), 4581 (major), 4592, 4597, 4607-4612 (major), 4618, 4624 (major), 4632, 4644, 4657 (major), 4662, 4677-4680 (major), 4691, 4701 (major), 4715. Trading Plan Today is the final session before a holiday weekend, and it will likely be a mess to trade. The bull flag that broke out has support at 4502, and therefore, bulls want that to hold after NFP today. The bear case would need 4502 to fail. In general, today is a day to be cautious with trading due to the recent rally and upcoming holiday. Wrap Up This week has seen a "trade of the year" with a 155 point rally. However, with today being the final session before a holiday weekend and NFP, the market conditions are poor for trading. The general lean for today is a dip to 4502, maybe undercut to 4492, then try to continue back up to build a range more. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
SPX ES Futures - A Great Deal of Caution Is AdvisedIt can be said that it's no surprise whatsoever that Jackson Hole was used so that options sellers could make various positions expire worthless, since it occurs on a Friday and was widely expected to be a high volatility day. Although indexes closed with sub-1% moves, the intraday range was actually very significant. Perhaps with Wednesday's apparent bounce and Friday's recovery, and the VIX trading at a 15-handle again, traders have been told to become bullish again because "new bull market." Yet when we look at the ES monthly, we see that price action has already taken out the July low. And we see from the Weekly that the weekly bounce simply swept into the wicks by a half handle before retracing upwards of 3%. The Nasdaq swept even higher, into the week of August 7's wicks: And the Dow is actually just really, really bearish: The biggest problem bulls face heading into the end of September and the end of Q3 is the situation in Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he has still yet to throw away. While many people may still feel that a sub-10% move on ES futures for the month of August, that will take out the July low circa-4,100, is a dream too good to come true with four days remaining... Consider that China's Hang Seng Tech Index, in an economy where every single company is a de facto state-run enterprise that must report to the CCP in every way, has an almost 17% range this month while dealing with a similar numerical value to the SPX: What hangs over the head of all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners by the CCP under former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died) starting July 20, 1999. In order to go to places like Tsinghua and Shanghai and do business as a foreigner, one has had to "transfuse blood" and swear vows to the Red Regime and the Jiang Faction, and this has formed significant skeletons in the closet of many of the companies that support the indexes. If you don't believe it. Just go look up the Neil Heywood saga, or look at Canadian establishment journalist Sam Cooper's book "Wilful Blindness: How A Network Of Narcos, Tycoons And Chinese Communist Party Agents Infiltrated The West" and take a calloused look at reality. The start of August has marked a bearish shift in market structure. And although there are significant fractals that show a retrace to the highs is actually very realistic, the reality is that with how price action has played out, every bounce has occurred to rape bears and trap bulls. And this means that if there is to be a bounce, it's likely in Q4, which means there's another month of megadoom ahead. JP Morgan's big fund has been long puts from 4,225 since the end of June, and those puts have been significantly under water this entire time. JPM doesn't lose money and is hedged, of course, but the reality is that because of time decay, price must now trade significantly below 4,225 for those puts to even break even, the 4,665 calls to finally expire worthless, and the 3,550 puts they sold to a client to even have a remote chance of mitigating their losses. The truth is that the target, since indexes took the July low and have not truly bounced, is the June low. For ES SPX futes, this means 4,178, and more likely, a raid on the 4,100 big figure to complete August. There's only four trading days left, and this amount of volatility will be significant. But at the same time, it's only a -5.34% week from where we closed on Friday. A quarter-handle raid on the low will result in a sub-10% loss this month for the SPX. Compare that to the Hang Seng Tech and tell me how unrealistic reality is at a time that all of humanity is in great danger. So, what are the news drivers? On Monday, there's nothing in the economic calendar, but Tuesday is JOLTS, Wednesday is ADP Non-farm and GDP, Thursday, the 31st is PCE and Unemployment, and Friday, September 1, is the most volatile day of the month, Non-farm Payroll. Anyways, bulls, buying the dip is cool, but your calls better expire January of 2024. Anything less, and you're probably just donating money to some Hedgie's son's fraternity fund.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
4
8/31 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News European inflation remains flat at 5.3% US PCE inflation holds steady Key Structures The yellow declining channel from the August high is a bull flag with 4507 resistance and support around 4400 now. The 4410 level has been a magnet all month and is also the yellow trendline connecting the Dec 2022, Feb 2023 highs, and June 2023 low. I call this the bull/bear line and bulls control above, bears control below. Support Levels Supports are: 4515 (major), 4508 (major), 4499, 4490-93, 4482 (major), 4473, 4466 (major), 4454, 4448 (major), 4440, 4430, 4423 (major), 4410 (major), 4397 (major), 4389, 4377 (major), 4364, 4357 (major), 4348, 4339 (major), 4329, 4321 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4515 (major), 4527, 4533, 4537 (major), 4546, 4560-65 (major), 4575, 4585, 4592 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4619, 4630, 4640-45 (major). Trading Plan As long as the 4508 and 4515 levels hold, the bull case today looks like base building above 4515, then run up the levels to 4537, perhaps as high as 4545. Potential dip spot there, then continue to 4560-65. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4508. This is a possible short, but I don’t chase. If you chase, you get caught in a failed breakdown. Wrap Up We are now in the post-rally phase. There is obviously high risk of rapid, violent rug pulls now after 4 green days into a major resistance. As long as 4515-08 holds, we can push to 4537-4545, dip there (if bears are lucky, maybe even a top). Above there after, we continue to 4560-65. 4508 fails, we start the sell. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
8/30 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As anticipated, the ES put in a core setup and a major bottoming pattern last Friday at 11am. Since then, it's been a steady climb to the upside. I got long at 4385 and have been holding since, turning it into an incredible 120 point long. As I predicted on Monday, the bull case played out exactly as expected, with the ES basing under 4448 all night, then taking the run up to 4474-76. ES did not stop there, instead running for 4515 which has been my macro target all week. Market Outlook: Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World News U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo critical of Chinese business environment. Key Structures The key structures I'm watching now include the purple declining channel from the August high, the 4458 & 4548 zone, the 4408 level, and the 4376 support. These structures provide context to the daily price action and are not meant to be predictive. Support Levels Supports are: 4498, 4487-93 (major), 4475, 4466, 4458 (major) 4454, 4448 (major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4417, 4409 (major), 4403 (major), 4392-89, 4374-76 (major), 4358, 4348 (major), 4338, 4330, 4318-21 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4513-15 (major), 4523, 4527, 4537 (major), 4544, 4557 (major), 4570-72 (major), 4585, 4592, 4597 (major), 4607 (major), 4615-18, 4628, 4637 (major), 4651. Trading Plan After such a major move, it's crucial to trade carefully and selectively. The first major support down is 4487-93. If this fails, we could see some selling and any longs would be considered knife catches. The first major resistance is 4513-15. If we overthrow to something like 4523 then lose 4515, it may represent a more attractive setup for those interested in these. Wrap Up The bull case has played out as expected and now it's time to step back and wait for the market to reveal its next move. After a big move, it's crucial to trade light and patiently wait for price discovery. If we clear 4513-15 with force, we simply continue up the levels to 4537 then 4570 direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.27-9.01Levels To Watch : Key Resistance 4445-37 // Current 4422.75-18.75 // 16.50 ? Target if over 4465-60.25 // 87.25-79.75 Current Support 4478.50-74.75 // Key For Continuation Lower 4362.75-55 Targets if under 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 27.25-21.50 *** 4405.25-4392.25 ? This was previous Key Resistance and 4416-05 is our VAL on 4hr, we closed within it but we don't know if it will act as Support or not, If market cant hold over it then that would be our sign of weakness. Last Week : Going into last week 4378-74 was our pinata low for the week to crack in order to see lower prices, as discussed in last Sundays prep IF we do hold over it then that could bring tests of Current Resistance // Key Resistance and if we hold over then that could bring the test of higher stops. We were able to clear all the upper stops and back fill towards our HTF Mean area around 4487-60 but the run up was done after hours/Globex and market just couldn't hold, closer we got to RTH the more selling came in. End of week we ran out of buying and inventory flushed back under Key Resistance, broke our Pinata Low with volume but buying came in at Current Support for the week which pushed us back over 78-74 and into Resistance. One of the things I noticed is how long it took us to clean up under 4405 to get back inside value, if we trapped size and had strong buyers here would it take us that long to push back inside value? This Week : This week we are set to open around our VAL 4416.50-05.25, under Supply that was again trapped over 4420 and close to our bigger Supports.... sounds fun! So where can we head from here? We had some strong selling Thursday/Friday out of our VAH and Value area but our range Support held the tests and gave us a close back in Key Area. Seems like buying here from last week is just short covering and new longs who aren't strong enough to hold us up over Key Areas just yet with stronger buying coming below 4370s. For the Downside - IF the Market can't hold over 4416.50 that would signal continued weakness and if 4405.25-92.25 area doesn't act as Support then we could see more selling. If we break and start holding below that it could bring in test of Current Support at 4378.50-74.75 IF we break it again that would give us another chance at lower targets. 4362.75-55 Would be the Key area to hold under during the week, under we could see more weakness towards 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 4327.25-21.50 These areas are close to our HTF Key Support so watch out for buyers at first tests and even possible a stronger bounce? If the market shows. We do have Contract Roll Gap under and we would have to see if we have enough supply to get inside it to maybe make a move towards bigger Support or no? For the Upside - IF 4405.25-4392.25 can act as Support and Market can hold over it then that could bring in more buyers to get us back over VAL at 4416.50. We would need to get over that and hold over 22.78-18.75 which is a pretty big Current Resistance as we didn't have much buying over it last week. Only holding over that can bring higher prices and give a chance at 4445-37.75 which would be our mean and next Key Area to get through/hold over. Unless we can do that then I would be careful trying to long unless its from Support areas if they show holds or strong buying from targets if they happen. Possible stronger buying area could be 4431.50-21.50 and under IF we get there. ** We could as well spend time in range under Value between 4420s-4370s-50s without going too much lower as this is still area of buying and unless we hold under/over Key areas then need to be careful. We do have lots of Market moving data this week so hopefully we can get some good trading and wont stay in range.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
29082023 - #ESFriday's levels () worked well as market sold off almost at the level given, hit the 4358 to the dot before going higher. Now market is back to the highs especially after the up move yesterday. Overall, price action is bullish and is supported all the zones but somewhat "overbought". Price might pull back to cool off before going higher. 4424 (max low of 4414) or so will be a good level to look for longs for a move higher. But if market did not go down but instead rally to the 4448 strong resistance, will look for reversal candle to look for a move down instead.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
1
8/29 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August is nearing its end and incredibly for the entire month, ES has only put in two consecutive green days on one occasion. The latest attempt began on Friday, and as readers recall, I got long at 4385 based on my core, highest win rate trading pattern - the failed breakdown. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News Chinese markets were strongly higher overnight on reports of more stimulus as state banks lower mortgage rates. European Union announces new expansion plans. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest). These are big picture structures, and provide context to the daily price action. They are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the intraday levels in the below plan level to level, one level at a time, one move at a time, then resetting bias. These are not comprehensive. Support Levels Supports are: 4441 (major), 4430, 4424 (major), 4409-13 (major), 4398, 4387-90, 4376 (major), 4360, 4347-52 (major), 4339, 4327, 4318-20 (major), 4312, 4300 (major), 4287 (major), 4278, 4266 (major), 4241, 4225-30 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4448, 4454 (major), 4466, 4474-76 (major), 4487-93 (major), 4500, 4513-16 (major), 4523, 4528, 4538 (major), 4545, 4556 (major), 4565-68 (major). Trading Plan Bull case: Unchanged. I posted something very simple all last week. Bulls control above 4408, and bears control below. Since we reclaim 4408 on Friday (plus the failed breakdown), bulls control. Generally, the bull case from here looks something like base more under 4448, then take the run up the lvls to 4454, 4466, then 4474-76. Dip there, then onto 4513. Bear case: Unchanged. Loss of 4408 is the first big warning for bulls. The sell trigger remains the same as Friday, which is the failure of 4376. I’d short this, but as always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there to drain demand, then I’d look short 4373 for the next leg down. Level to level profit takes as always, but seeing 4320 would not shock me. Wrap Up In summary, my general lean is that we can base more above 4424 then run to 4466, 4474-76. If 4424 fails, we retest 4408, and the loss of that is a big warning for bulls. 4376 fail starts the next trend leg down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
Weekly Plan ES Futures /2708/28 Weekly Plan. ES Futures September Weekly Pivot is 4,402 [top of the spike from 8/24 Targets 4,425 4,469 [5 days balance top) 4,505 Targets 4,350 4,313 4,289 Now trading at 4,418 Alerts You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close): Weekly opening 4,418 Weekly pivot at 4,402 Each weekly target. Side notes: 5 Days Balance in daily + monthly. We are One Time Framing Down in Weekly Chart, weekly OTFD ends if 4468.75 is breached in RTH (balance top). 5 days balance zone is When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan. Have a great week and trade safe.
SP:SPX
by dhjesus
8/27 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Friday was a typical Jackson Hole day, characterized by unpredictability and traps. As predicted, the day saw extensive trapping where the price would make an initial move, trap traders, reverse, and then repeat. Despite the volatility, bulls won the day, maintaining control as long as the 4408 level held. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish Key Structures There are several key structures to watch. The large rising uptrend channel in white, which failed on Tuesday, August 15th, causing a 120 point flush, needs to reclaim to set a definitive bottom. The yellow channel, a failed bull flag with 4523 resistance and support around 4408-10, needs to be re-entered by the bulls. Lastly, the head and shoulders pattern built since mid-June tried to breakdown the "neckline" at 4375 Thursday and failed, indicating a bullish failed breakdown. Support Levels Supports are at 4408-10 (major), 4402, 4382-85 (major), 4375 (major), 4363, 4357 (major), 4348, 4339 (major), 4328, 4319-23 (major), 4311, 4298-4301 (major), 4282-86 (major), 4272, 4266, 4247 (major), 4235 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4423 (major), 4429,4437-40 (major), 4448, 4453 (major), 4467, 4474 (major), 4482, 4487-92 (major), 4499, 4512 (major), 4522 (major), 4527, 4540-45 (major), 4554, 4560, 4566-68, 4576-80 (major), 4592, 4598, 4607-09 (major). Trading Plan For Monday, the bull case remains the same. As long as the level of 4408 is maintained, the rally is alive. The bear case requires the level of 4375 to fail. In both cases, it is essential to see the level fully accepted before attempting shorts or longs. If 4408 fails, we play the levels. If 4375 fails, we free fall. Wrap Up In summary, we are still in deep chop around the 4408 magnet. My general lean as of now is that as long as 4408-10 keeps holding, we can base build then continue up the levels. If 4408 fails, we play the levels. If 4375 fails, we free fall. As always, trade with caution and don't chase. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 8.20-8.25Levels to Watch : Resistance - Current 4392.25-86.75 // Key for Continuation 4405.25-4398 4422-18.75 // 4434.75-28.50 // 4445-37.75 Support - Current and for continuation lower 4367.25-59.50 4349.50 // 4327-21.50 ? Not Tested. Key HTF Support 4291.50-65.50 I wouldn't say 4378.50-74.75 is currently Support unless Globex can Hold over. Last Week : Beginning of the week market opened and held Current Support which gave a push back inside our Key Resistance area with a what could seem like a strong end of day push/close. To me it seemed like an end of day stop run to sell into, our theme has been sell what we can at lower prices while buyers are there then once buyers run out we move lower trapping new buyers above. Another red flag was that we didn't fully take out that 4502-09 area. Tuesday Globex made a push out of Key Resistance, went sideways and failed which is what started our next move towards lower targets. We hit both of the big targets lower in one week, can see that closer to our bigger Support areas we were getting the more consolidation we needed to continue but we made it there. 4374-62-49 was our Key Support area on Friday and we needed to hold under for any continuation, this was also a big target where shorts would be taking profit and covering.. especially into the weekend, as well a Support everyone had their eyes on for possible bounce they have bene waiting for while its coming down? Support held and surprise we again got a stop run end of day back towards our Resistance for the day at 4392. This Week : This week might be a bit tricky, we had some good selling going down towards our lower targets but we are now getting closer to our bigger Support areas and there is starting to be more congestion around here. It doesn't look like there is enough strong buying here to just give us a bounce or a big reversal yet. We are still under the Supply and have been trapping more on the way down so this could take some time to clean up and or a another flush towards bigger Support where we could find a bigger bid that can give us a stronger move up or at least better hold to start bigger consolidation. Currently our inventory is in this 4392-4362 range and we are looking to see where it could move, most of the inventory is built up over 4375 because we didn't spend as much time under it Friday. We have 4392-4403 as our Key Resistance and we would want to see market be able to push over it and look strong over it before we can start thinking of bigger reversal to head for higher stops, if we can't then that means continued weakness for now. If we do hold over 74 area and get over 92-98 then we will have a chance over Key Resistance. If we get under 4378-74 we could see more selling towards lower Support, if that doesn't hold we have a chance for continuation lower where our targets would be 49.50 - 30s, possibly test of 27-21.50 and maybe that Contract Roll Gap area? which so happens to be above our HTF Key Support area. We will have to see if we can get in that space and fill it or do we find buyers to possibly give us a hold/pull back. If that doesn't hold we have 4310-4291 as our bigger time frame range low and its possible to either find a bigger bid or at least enough buying for hold/some sort of reversal IF we get there and of course if we find that. Market made a big move lower and now might need time clean up, we will have to see what kind of action we get.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The EndFor whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire. And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt. This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies. There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong. Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week. What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world. The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy. Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one. Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot. If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%. The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party. Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble. Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index? It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause. And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population. Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason. What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night. Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first. But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered. It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet. It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible. So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on? Have we bottomed? What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday. If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed. And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity. The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this: 1. Dumping hard into October 2. Retracing it all into December 3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud. I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes. It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
#ES_F Overview and Prep for the Week This chart was made using volume profile to try and capture areas of interest and bigger picture over all. We broke into this range June 12th, held above and that gave us a test higher where we found our first good resistance and sold back down to the break out area where we ran out of supply to go lower and price came back inside Value. End of the month once we took the stops over the middle of Value that gave us short covering and a move outside of Value but that was a Friday before a holiday so went sideways and closer to RTH we broke back inside taking the stops to give us the flush. Selling looked strong but we never broke VAL instead we found the bid that took us back towards VAH where after we took the stops from previous failed break out it gave us the buying to take us into resistance. What can we see now? Well few things that stand out here, so far this was 1st test of resistance, can see we got extended away, it was done during Globex hours when volume is lighter and its much easier to move the price around. We hit the top of double value area, came back in, tried to break out and failed. All this kind of tells us that there is chance this is failed break out away from this range for now, this also tells us that now we can possibly target the middle of this doubled value area and if we break that we could target the bottom of it which would put us back around 4490s-80s for this week with maybe a bounce from there? I think we have to see here how long it takes for us to come back in as we could potentially find some support here and do some chop unless we get some size selling that will break it quicker. Another question is will we break it after just first rejection from the high or might we try to make another run towards 4540s before we get back under 4525-08 IF we get back at all, of course we could pull back, consolidate and make another push over the high but so far its not ready for that and we have those lower stops lined up around 25-08 area that if we take could give us more selling towards 4490-80. We could also take the stops, find support around 4500 to take us for another push towards 4525 that would build up some more supply to take us down towards support. This 4550-4480 is our balance area going into this week until broken and we trade within it. Levels to Watch Intraday : Current Support 4528.50-4519 Current Resistance 4551.25-4543.75 Targets if we build up enough to break Support if we Break Current : S1 4512.75-05.50 // S2 4487.25-79.75 Would need to see a break of 79-75 and hold under for Continuation Lower Possible to find support at S2 or Before around 4495 Resistance if we Break Current : R1 4562.50-70 Key area would need to see break for anything over.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
8/24 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday saw a clean uptrend move in ES, marking a major low after three days of higher daily lows. The relief bounce to 4418 and high 4420s was anticipated and played out as expected. The day ended with ES reclaiming 4400 and squeezing to the 4426-29 target. The market now sits 100 points off last Friday’s low, with key catalysts such as NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole on Friday ahead. Market Outlook: Bullish Premarket 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly up but areas of weakness 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World Headlines NVIDIA reignites AI rally with their blowout earnings report. Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel connecting the March and May lows failed last Tuesday, causing a 120 point flush. Resistance is currently at 4500, with closer bottom indicator at 4470-75. The declining channel from the August high has resistance today at 4445-47 and support at 4310. The yellow declining channel from the August high was reclaimed yesterday, with support at 4429-23 today. Support Levels Key support levels include 4442, 4429 (major), 4423, 4412, 4403-06 (major), 4389, 4376-74 (major), 4368, 4345-50 (major), 4339, 4329, 4318 (major), 4308, 4300-02 (major), 4286 (major), 4273, 4265, 4247, 4241 (major), 4230-35 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4448 (major), 4454, 4470-75 (major), 4487-90, 4500 (major), 4512 (major), 4517, 4533 (major), 4540 (major), 4545, 4555, 4565 (major), 4580, 4593 (major), 4600, 4607, 4618-22 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today requires holding 4429-26 on any dips, ideally building a base in the range between 4429-4450, then taking a run to 4470-75 next, followed by 4500. The bear case begins on the fail of 4403, with a short at 4399 for a move down the levels. A fail of 4429-23 is another potential short entry point. Wrap Up After a big trend move and with NVDA big positive earnings, the general lean is that ES can defend 4429 and try the run to 4470-75. As always, following the price and not predicting is key. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
8/23 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES broke its three-day red streak last Friday by putting in a daily bullish reversal candle. This triggered a relief rally that started this week, squeezing 60+ points. Despite the volatility, ES has remained in the same position as it was on Friday/Monday in the 4390-4400 support cluster. The question now is whether ES is building a base for a bottom or setting up for its next leg down. Market Outlook: Neutral Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World Headlines Slowing European PMI data Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed last Tuesday, causing a 120 point flush. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4493. The August high has resistance at 4448-54 and support at 4315. The yellow declining channel from the August high is a failed bull flag with resistance at 4426-29. Support Levels Supports are: 4390-92 (major), 4382, 4376, 4370-72 (major), 4347 (major), 4333, 4317 (major), 4311, 4303-05 (major), 4287 (major), 4272, 4265, 4254, 4247 (major), 4230-35 (major), 4220 Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4400-4405 (major), 4413, 4418, 4426-29 (major), 4448, 4452 (major), 4468 (major), 4474, 4480, 4493 (major), 4512 (major), 4517, 4530, 4538-41 (major), 4549, 4560-62, 4578-80 (major). Trading Plan The bull case depends on 4390 holding and as of writing, we are hovering just above. As long as that 4390-4400 battleground holds, the relief bounce that began last Friday is still alive. The bear case begins on the fail of 4390. I’d look to short this. As always, I don’t chase. I’d ideally like to see some sort of final bounce attempt here, then 4388 would trigger shorts. Wrap Up ES is at a major inflection point here and is about to make a decision. I am prepared to react accordingly whatever path it chooses. My general lean though is that since 4390 has not failed yet, that ES can try to continue the relief bounce one more time (to 4418, high 4420s). 4390 fails though, we will head to low 4370s which is the last stop before new lows. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/22 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In my last newsletter, I spoke about the bullish hammer candle reversal day we saw in ES after three straight red days. This was only the third green day in the entire month of August. As a result, I was holding long over the weekend with multiple setups to add to this. My general lean was that we could bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying lower, and this is precisely what played out yesterday. Market Outlook: Neutral Premarket 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines Reducing reliance on the US dollar in focus at the BRICS summit beginning today. Key Structures ES has done something yesterday for the first time in August: It put in two consecutive green days - a true rarity. The questions is, can bulls keep it going? The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed on Tuesday, causing 3 days of selling. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4487-90. Support Levels Supports are: 4411, 4405 (major), 4392-94 (major), 4382, 4369-72 (major), 4345-48 (major), 4340, 4328, 4315-19 (major), 4304 (major), 4287 (major), 4275, 4267 (major), 4247-50, 4236 (major), 4220 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4422-25 (major), 4432, 4442 (major), 4448, 4465 (major), 4473, 4486-90 (major), 4500, 4511 (major), 4517, 4527, 4542 (major), 4560, 4575, 4580, 4585 (major). Trading Plan My trading plan is to be very cautious today, especially after a big, one directional move, below major resistances. Longs are risky (chasing into a resistance), and price loves to chop hard in these zones. I will be picking my spots very carefully and patience will be key. I will not be trying to predict the action, but rather react with no preconceptions. Wrap Up In summary, bulls aren't out of the woods yet by any means, but the fact we spent two days basing now is a healthier sign. My general lean is we can base build now 4392-4420s. This would set up a push to 4442+. If 4392 fails today, it's a big warning sign and I'd be quite cautious on longs below there. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
SPY - Are You Prepared If We Haven't Bottomed?When I made my July 29 call on the ES SPX Futures here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg We had anticipated that a retrace to the highs or a raid on the highs was on deck. And yet throughout August, price action has been extremely bearish across all commodities, indexes, equities, and bonds. We very suddenly went from talk of a new bull market to a dip that doesn't rip. In my August 5 call on QQQ, I note that the January of '22 fail pivots, which ended the bull market, that were taken out on all three indexes have not been raided on the ETFs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? And although today's August 18 options expiry price action took out a key low, the bounce we got was also lethargic. On the 25th, the Federal Reserve will hold the press conference for the Jackson Hole event, which will not involve a rate hike, but a forward-looking statement of economic policy by Jerome Powell. Last year, this day hallmarked the nuke of the markets. This year, it may very well do the same when the bond market has to accept that 6% Fed Funds Rates are on deck before '24 and 6.5% may be on deck before Q2. The other bearish catalyst is the rapidly degenerating economic condition in Mainland China, which is still ruled by the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping has yet to throw away. I've heard that Evergrande is defaulting and that's put something like 1/3rd of a trillion dollars of commercial real state into the fire. The Yuan isn't in good shape. The whole country is in terrible shape because of the effects of the pandemic. The losses are a lot worse than what you see reported by the CCP to John Hopkins and presented on places like Our World In Data. This is really the key cornerstone of everything going on in the world right now. I have been warning about this ad nauseum in everything I post, and I think people will begin to understand what I have meant, and why I have said it, as changes in this world unfold in the next six months. China is a key market for Apple, and Apple is something of a pillar of the U.S. equities market, and yet, after the big earnings correction, it seems as if $198 was the ultimate top. Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... And Tesla. with its Shanghai Gigafactory in Babylon and its reliance on the Chinese market, has just been an absolute disaster. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? Traders are often slow to react. "The trend is your friend, until the end," they say, and correctly. When we look at SPY on the monthly, we see that it's taken a monthly low for the first time since February. And when we look at it on the weekly, we get even greater clarity. And although sub 4,400 really ought to have been a place that it bounces to retrace and retest the tops at 4,650, the fact is that price action is not showing a willingness to bounce and take out upside targets. So far, what it has told us is that longers are trapped. And if longers remain trapped even after we take out the July low, it's safe to posit that the next target to the downside would be the June low at ~$416. "$416 what a fairy tale!" is what a lot of people say, and yet this is only 5% away from where we are now. Only 200 more points down before there's a chance of a possible reversal. In other words, these targets are not that far away. If they really are traded to, it becomes increasingly unlikely that there's going to be any kind of a retrace to the top, considering JP Morgan is some 15,800 contracts long on 4,225 SPX puts expiring Sept. 29 that have never been in the money. And so I want to say to everyone that the sooner you can flip your bias from bull to bear, perhaps the better. It may not be until Q4 that we see a bounce with how things are unfolding.
AMEX:SPYShort
by LordWrymouth
1