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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.13-8.18 Last Week : Last week market went sideways between our Key Resistance and Current Support area which we established on Sunday. Selling seemed very mechanical again because we didn't have size plowing through important levels and continuing, instead we get holds/bounces then continuation which so far has been trapping more new longs on the way down who are looking for support or bigger bounces from here while filling lower. Thursday/Friday we finally saw breaks of 4487-79 Support and put in some volume under it as well but the break on Friday was done pre market hours and when RTH volume came in we were able to hold as market tagged the stops at 65-60 target but didn't hold/continue under trapping pre market shorts for support. We saw this time around that we didn't have strong enough buying to get us back over 4490s-4500 and we closed inside our Current Support for that week with more supply built up above. This Week : This week is a bit difficult to read because we are in the middle of a bigger range but we can look at what we currently have to work with. Overall I think we are still in correction lower as supply is coming out from above and we haven't seen anything to signal trend change to the upside on bigger time frames from here yet. Last week marked balanced in the lower part of this 4560-4490 range with failures to spend any time over Key Resistance area. Friday Globex built up enough supply to break the Support for the week but got no continuation after 65-60 tag, this should be our area to watch going into tonight if we open around it. So far again we are set to open under previous weeks settlements and that would mean as long as we are holding under 4510-4495 that should bring continued weakness. Going into tonight we have 4487-79 as an area to watch, will this previous Support now act as our Resistance or can the market find buyers to get back over it? If we can't hold this 87-79 area we have stops lined up under us starting at 75-70-65-60 area which we could go for if we either get selling or build up the supply. 4465-60 is an area to watch for any continuation this week, under it we can see 4445-37 // 4422-18 and maybe even 4403-4392 areas. Never know how much selling we will get and where the market will find the bid, if this is just trapped supply coming out and its not that much then we shouldn't see market go much lower if we do go there at all BUT just in case if enough selling comes in next Key Support area is 4375-60 and under. For market to regain strength again we would want to see it hold over 4465-60 and ideally be able to push over 4490-95 and 4510-02 area and hold as that would bring back stability and could bring in more buyers to head for higher stops, unless this happens I will only be looking for longs from lower Support areas after market shows holds and consolidations around them that look promising. If we do hold over 4510 we have 4532-25 as another Key Resistance, just over all not looking good for longs over 4500 right now unless we find a strong bid or buying that can push us over it first. I will be watching Globex tonight to see where we open and what we do at 87-79 area for possible continuation lower or if we start consolidating at/above then will wait for more information tomorrow. Levels to Watch : Resistance - Current 4490-95 Key 4508-02 // 4532-25 Support - Current 4479 // 4470-65 Stops under 4445-37 // 22-18 Next Key 4403-4392
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
8/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The bears had their first major technical win since mid-February, breaking the perfect rising trendline from the March lows. This has triggered a "sell the bounce" theme with the bulls struggling to put in green days in August. The question now is whether there is a relief bounce on the horizon. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Major Chinese property developer Evergrande is back in the news, this time filing for Chapter 15 to protect it during restructuring. Key Structures The declining channel extending from the July 27th high broke down on Tuesday, starting the cascade lower. The large rising uptrend channel, which connects the March lows and the May lows, also failed late Tuesday. This was the first technical success bears have had since March. Support Levels The most immediate major support that failed is now the immediate squeeze trigger on the reclaim of 4404. Other support levels include 4369 then 4340-45. Resistance Levels The backtest of the declining channel is now 4438 and was where we rejected yesterday. To set a "bottom", the large rising uptrend channel has to reclaim and currently, resistance is at 4480ish. The 4463-66 level we broke down from on Tuesday would likely also count as an early reclaim and is also significant. Trading Plan The plan for today is to continue to sell the bounce. A sustained bounce will only come when a resistance clears. The two big ones are now 4393 then 4404. A short squeeze could occur if we can reclaim that 4404. Wrap Up Bears remain in control. The general lean is that ES can test 4369 next level down, then perhaps try another sustained bounce there and if it can’t reclaim 4393 then 4404, we simply continue lower down to 4340. A squeeze could occur above 4404. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip...Apple has really been, perhaps arguably, the key reason the bear market rally has been as extreme as it has in 2023. Looking back to January, there really has not been even a single genuinely bearish day. But with Q2 earnings as a catalyst, we now have signs of a genuine and significant reversal pattern, and at an all time high. It's very evident on monthly bars. Weekly bars are even more obvious, showing that today, we took the July low, and there's no luft to the bounce. Long is a bad trade and short is now a good trade, is what we're being told. "The trend is your friend, until the end" is a saying with a lot of wisdom. If you can figure out you've ran into "the end" in the first few hours, then you really will be a lucky person. A lot of people may be about to blow their accounts trying to buy that dip, which they've been conditioned to do so like Pavlov's dog and his bell. Apple is a company that's maintained close ties, all these years, to the Chinese Communist Party. You should always remember there is a difference between "China" and "the CCP." China is a 5,000 year old country with a culture of dynasties that were imparted since the Great Flood by the Divine. The CCP is a 100-year-old Red Demon whose existence was arranged to destroy humanity, the Earth, and the Cosmos itself. Xi Jinping has ruled both China and the CCP since 2012, and it's both a blessing and a curse for him. If Xi isn't intelligent enough to go Gorbachev-style and overthrow the Party in the middle of the US night, then Xi will go down in history as the leader of the rogue regime at the end, and will be responsible for everything it has done in history. This includes the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual cultivators. Although the persecution was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and conducted by the toad's faction all these years, and Xi has been killing and bankrupting the rogue faction's minions in the Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem with being tagged as the CCP's leader is that the head is always the first thing you cut off with the guillotine. So, here's the thing for Apple. I expect Apple to take the $176.93 July low, probably sometime next week, based on how the markets are reacting. From there, we may see a retrace. What this will indicate is that Apple's market, for the first time in 2023, has finally shifted bearish. What this is the canary in the coalmine for is a significant correction. You can actually see this kind of pattern play out strongly in Amazon's monthly bars, which I comment on in their earnings pattern below: Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, Kills I anticipated that SPX was due for numbers as low as 4,420~ in the below call: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And so the setup with Apple is this: Short any bounce, with a target of $174. Then, don't get greedy. Anticipate a bounce into the August 18 options expiry. But that bounce may be no better than a flirt with $190. From there, you can consider it a "Godshort" with a target below the 2022 $124 low. And what I want to say is that if Apple has topped, everything is topped. Everyone is greedy and blinded by greed, buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear! "We are fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful" is something Warren Buffett is notable for stating. And although Buffett doesn't qualify as any kind of a good man, the Truth is the Truth, even if a toad states it. Be careful. Things are about to change extremely quickly. Can you keep up? Can you enlighten to it? Missing the chance, there may be no further opportunities.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by LordWrymouth
8/17 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August 2023 has been a unique month with 12 trading days, 10 of which were red. Tuesday, ES hit its most significant support level, leading to a continued grind down. This triggered shorts Tuesday for a breakdown trade, which finally followed through yesterday afternoon. After 10 of 12 days red, the question is whether the bulls can get a relief bounce and where. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed World Headlines 8:30am Unemployment Claims 240K expected, 239K reported. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -9.8 expected, 12 reported. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia. 10:00am CB Leading Index m/m -0.4% Combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, credit trends, and interest rate spreads. Key Structures The core structure remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. Support today is now 4448, and resistance will be 4555-60. The large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel which broke down yesterday. The reclaim of this structure will be the core objective for bulls in the coming days. Support Levels Supports are: 4424, 4411 (major), 4403 (major), 4394, 4382 (major), 4369, 4358, 4345, 4328-32 (major), 4312 (major), 4305 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4438-34 (major), 4448 (major), 4464, 4473 (major), 4493 (major) 4500, 4510-14 (major), 4524, 4533 (major), 4542 (major), 4555-59 (major), 4568, 4580, 4591 (major), 4598, 4607 (major), 4613, 4625 (major), 4641, 4657-62 (major). Trading Plan In terms of levels to bid direct, 4411 and 4403 are two very significant supports below here at which a knife catch long could be tried. For spots to add shorts, 4448 is fairly well tested now and may clear if we get back up there. 4473 would be one spot of interest, and 4510-14 would be the best area. Wrap Up This market is impossible to predict and I am in reaction mode. My loose lean if I had to give one is we sell to 4411, perhaps 4403 then try a rally there up the levels to 4448. We could see a green day off this but bulls will need to reclaim 4448 to have accomplished anything significant. 4403 fails, we start the next leg direct to 4383. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?Greed quickly became extreme at the end of July, and the beginning of August has severely punished bulls, who are still buying the dip and buying the dip. The July high on Nasdaq happened to occur along with the Dow and the SPX in that all three indexes swept out the January '22 pivot that amounted to a rejection that ended that unprecedented bull market. Looking at monthly bars, you can see how extreme this '23 bear market rally has been, and how far the Nasdaq is above its long-term trendlines, how the COVID points were never tested on SPX or Nasdaq, but were raided on the Dow... And you get some perspective on the weekly bars. Here's some key problems for bulls: 1. Equities don't like high interest rates. Big money is needed to move markets and that money likes to seek safe yield. When rates are really high, bonds are really cheap to buy, and money tends to flow into them instead of equities. 2. This means equities rallies in high interest rate environments are bear market rallies by definition. Smart money pumps and sells equities to fuel a buying spree in bonds. 3.With Fed rates pushing 5.5% and there being no chance of cuts until inflation goes from 4% to 2% sustained on a long term basis, ask yourself what really is the bull case that's going to lead to new all time highs? When you're dealing with multiple fundamental factors that are bearish, but price action is bullish, you absolutely have to be cautious, or else you're likely to get gibed. Moreover, geopolitical problems are really serious. The biggest problem is the situation in Mainland China with a Chinese Communist Party that is about to fall while the Western propaganda outlets report on absolutely nothing of significance. All the talk about "Taiwan War" is to make a pariah of Xi Jinping and his faction of Chinese nationalists. What all the globalists are really preparing for is how to take control of China when the CCP falls. To do this, they need to position a man that has been groomed to take control of the country, and this will be done using the Republic of Taiwan as a proxy. But "the best laid plans of mice and men" is an issue. Overhanging all of humanity's head like the Sword of Damocles is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin's faction. Although Xi has been killing toadJiang's toad faction for over a decade with the Anti-Corruption Campaign, the problem is that Xi is still the Chairman of the Party, and all of its sins in 100 years hang over his neck like a noose. If Xi is smart, he'll overthrow the Party Gorbachev style. And if he isn't, he'll go down with it. But either way, when the Party goes, the persecution will become the #1 issue that all of humanity will have to face, for the sin is extreme. Equities markets will not be bullish those days, and you truly will be in a new paradigm. So here's the short term price action on the Nasdaq. End of July and early August price action confirms that the top, for now, is in. This means that dips are no longer buyable. It's only that you can short the rips. This will remain true until a certain downside objective is met, and when this becomes true, that downside objective is pretty much exclusively where an old low is. We have two areas of concern for lower prices. One is the June low at 14,250. Although I don't expect the market makers to take this point before September, it certainly is possible. More significant is the 14,850 pivot from the end of June. This number happens to result in a raid on the psychological 15,000 level, there's a gap nearby, and it can serve as a useful level to bounce for heading into the end of August. Keep in mind that August's monthly options expire on the 18th, which leave a solid 9 trading days remaining before the end of September. While you might feel that these targets are too far away to be realistic, keep in mind that dumping to 14,100 from where markets closed on Friday is really only 8%. 8% on QQQ amounts to like $25 and isn't that big of a deal compared to what some other three digit stuff does in a single day. And maybe you really don't believe it either way. But take a look at Apple, the most important stock on the market. It's showing you all the signs that you'd ever need to see that it's either topped or will raid $200 once before going down: Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... Same with Microsoft Microsoft - Is The Top Already In? Same with Netflix Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives The scary thing about tops is that the first time you get the sell off, the sell off tends to hurt longs, scare them out, and then you get a bounce that flirts with old highs. And that pattern leads to the "sell low, buy back higher" phenomenon. Which results in people buying the tops, hard, and permabears missing their chance to be short and missing the entire move down. But if you understand what's going on, you can capitalize on the early downside, the early bounce, and Godshort the top and ride the trend down. It's hard to do because of human emotions and the interference of long periods of time. But the wisdom is right here to do it. A potential timeline for the downside to finish is literally as early as Wednesday, because August CPI is on deck for Thursday. Another option is that CPI leads to the blowout under 15,000 and the bounce is into the end of August. Beware the JPM Collar. Expiring September 29, they're long on SPX puts with a strike of 4,200. Just ask yourself if America's most keystone systemically important bank is going to be expiring worthless like retail traders do.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early?I have an open call on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures that theorizes that the markets may have topped in terms of the perpetual bull run, but that we may also get a rip back towards/at new highs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? The process has been quite slow to play out so far, but the most dangerous thing for bulls with NQ is that 15,000 has not yet been broken. And yet we are rallying. Many people have been pining for new all time highs, and yet every equity has slowed down or been significantly bearish in the last two weeks. It's worth noting key macro points: 1. Fed rates are looking at tasting 6% by the end of the year 2. Jerome Powell says cuts aren't even considered until inflation becomes half of what it is 3. Dude said it will probably take years for this 4. Bond price goes down as yield goes up 5. Money leaves equities to seek yield in this environment 6. Divergences from the above are short signals, not buy for all time high signals And then there is the ever-accelerating collapse of the economy in Mainland China under the Communist Party. Things for the CCP, and for its leader Xi Jinping, are getting worse by the day. On top of economic problems the Party is facing are a litany of social problems, and the recent bout of exceptional and unprecedented flooding ravaging the country. The losses from the pandemic, from the economic calamity, and the natural disasters have weakened the Party significantly. A weak CCP can never invade Taiwan, and international spy agencies will all know this, and so whenever you're hearing "Taiwan War" you should immediately be suspect. What if the idea is to take control of Mainland China via Taiwan as the CCP falls, instead? What will happen to the international markets that day? Will they go up, or will they crash? So, here's a look at QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF that you can trade 0-Day options on. From the looks of today's price action it would seem as if the bottom was in. And it may very well be. This is a really key point. Friday may really well have been the bottom and we may be looking at a reversal. But there's some key points to consider for bulls. One is that in the Nasdaq call, I point out that NQ raided its January of 2022 failure pivot before the correction. QQQ has not done that yet, and this leads us to believe that $390 is a very likely target in the immediate future. Remember that upside should happen fast, since JP Morgan is bigly long SPX 4,200 puts that expire on September 29, and has been underwater since the quarter rolled over at the end of July. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' However, it's also very strange if we're going to see a bounce as massive as $390, that the end of July failure swing didn't result in at least one downside stop being taken out. Note that today, Monday, was a day with no news drivers, while there is retail sales and Empire Manufacturing Index Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and no news driver on Friday, which is also monthly options expiry. The critical Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting is also August 23 and 24, next week. Last year, Jackson Hole is what started a major correction that lasted until October. So what to expect? Instead of a reversal in fortune being so easy, I would imagine we see a raid of QQQ $360/Nasdaq 14,900 this week before we bounce. After that, it will be long only until QQQ $385, is my trade thesis. But keep in mind $390 does not have to be taken. $385 is a potential area of reversal and $391 is an area that only has to print one contract before there's a correction. So, thanks for reading. The TL;DR is this Buy a raid under $360-355. Probably just under $360. Long only until $385. Get "Big Short" over $390 or on a reversal pattern between $385 and $388. Good luck.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by LordWrymouth
1
Sentiment Index UpdateToday I shared a video in my trading room of Tom Lee on CNBC post his CPI massive rally call which didn't materialize. One member pointed out: " Lol. The man in this interview is not “fearless.” He is having trouble getting it out, and he has concerns. He is impressed by the “pronunciation” of this move. " I share the sentiment chart so we can observe the mental psyche of both sides (Bulls and Bears) and how it never changes and just repeats. This sentiment causes buyers and sellers to vote each day through the buys and sells they execute...how they vote, provides us a visual pattern. This pattern is much more forecastable than the internal fundamentals. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
2
ES1: Will the bulls come back soon?ES has been following the bullish count almost to the dot for the majority of the year so far. Right now ES is on critical trendline and fib support and RSI has several points of bullish divergence. If the trendline breaks, it is still not the end of the world. But, if 4300 level breaks, then it will be very worrisome. Below 4200, the doom and gloomers may be correct about low 3k levels....but, right now, those numbers below are not in the plans yet. However, the bulls need to show up pretty soon here....
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by mukit1
8/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As predicted, we saw a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip in the ES. This was no surprise as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late in the day, we finally broke the range down. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Chinese central bank cuts interest rates in surprise move on more weak economic data. Michael Bury spooks investors with new big short. 13F filing shows he bought $1.6B of puts on SPY and QQQ. Fitch analyst warns of coming US banking downgrade. Key Structures We remain in an extremely choppy range between 4515 and 4459. This level was a major, multi-month trendline and after a full day of chop, it finally cracked. This is the most significant technical breakdown in many months. ES has now been red for an incredible 9 of the last 11 days. The core structure remains a declining channel in white - extending from the July 27th high. Support tomorrow is now 4454, and resistance will be 4562. Support Levels 4454 (major), 4448, 4438, 4430 (major), 4423, 4416, 4400-4405 (major), 4395 (major), 4382, 4368, 4350, 4339 (major), 4327, 4312-15, 4306 (major). Resistance Levels 4461 (major), 4468, 4474, 4487-90 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4522 (major), 4534, 4545-50 (major), 4562 (major), 4568, 4579, 4591, 4597 (major), 4608 (major), 4621, 4634, 4650-52 (major), 4660, 4672, 4680, 4692-95 (major), 4705-4710 (major). Trading Plan Bears control until we can reclaim the area we broke down today, which is roughly 4461 now. I would be looking to trade the reclaim of this zone. If we can reclaim that white channel at 4461ish now, it will provoke a violent short squeeze and possible multi-week/month low. This would probably see a push back to 4505, dip, then onto 4560s. On the bearish side, bears control under 4461-68 zone now. Generally the bearish path here would have 4400 as a magnet with level to level bounces on the way down. Wrap Up Bears made a play for it today by cracking the 4461 level, and the coming hours will be key to see if its a real or failed breakdown. I will react accordingly. My loose lean is we can make our way to 4438, perhaps 4430 then try a larger bounce there. If 4461-68 reclaims, bottom is probably in. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap July, the second most bullish month of the year, saw three consecutive weeks of growth, rallying 220 points. August started with the first red week in three, followed by a more turbulent descent this week. However, August is traditionally a consolidation month, with a 0.1% average return over the past 20 years. This pattern of a choppy first half and stronger second half has been evident this year, with ES making slight new lows then squeezing all week. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headlines Renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy as it’s largest private wealth manager missed payments Key Structures The core structure is a declining channel in yellow, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Patterns exist only as probabilities until they confirm. Support of this is now 4465, and resistance will be 4580. Other important structures include the major June/July resistance that started the current leg up, shown in purple below, and the large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows. Support Levels Supports are: 4480, 4474, 4464 (major), 4457 (major), 4448, 4435, 4426 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4388, 4380, 4367-70 (major), 4350, 4339, 4322, 4305-10 (major), 4288 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4493-88 (major), 4500, 4509 (major), 4518 (major), 4532, 4545 (major), 4555, 4564, 4568-71 (major), 4580, 4587-92 (major), 4607 (major), 4618, 4633, 4644 (major), 4665, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4692, 4704 (major), 4724, 4733 (major), 4750-55, 4770 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the 4457 zone holding, and ideally, it does not even test again. An ideal bull case would look something like ES continuing to base between 4475 and 4488-93, then pushing up to 4509, 4518, then dipping again before tackling 4545. The bear case begins on the fail of 4457. Shorting here is a break-down trade, which requires a good read of the price action to execute well. Wrap Up We are currently in a choppy phase. The loose lean is that we can continue to base above the 4457 level and below 4492, then try to push up the levels again to 4509 then 4518. A dip there is likely. If 4457 fails, shorts trigger for a large leg down - and this leg could last days. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Weekly Update: Nothing Lasts Forever. NOTHINGI vividly recall a few years back having just finished labeling the above chart of the SP500 from inception. I labeled the chart and included most of the historical events that occurred over the course of that time. As a trader, I wanted to have a quick reference visual picture of price action during war time, innovation, and societal change, juxtaposed on my EWT count. Afterwards, I plopped on the couch and wanted to “Veg Out”. As a full-time trader and analyst, my mind was kaput. Exhausted... I wanted to watch something on TV that required no more of my brain energy. I turned on the History Channel and subsequently settled on this series called, “Life After People”. As the series progressed, I went from mentally exhausted to engaged. The simple summation of the series was that despite us having built sky-scrapers, cities, bridges, etc., if people we’re no longer around, the sum of the proof we ever existed on earth would eventually get overrun, deteriorate, and the final result would be recycled by the planet into the sum of its elemental parts. The series referred to this process as Entropy. I wondered if the time I spent laboring over the machinations of price action since pre-industrial America was in fact, the natural order of progression. Birth and death. Start and finish. I looked up the definition of Entropy and here it is. Entropy is a scientific concept, as well as a measurable physical property, that is most commonly associated with a state of disorder, randomness , or uncertainty . The term and the concept are used in diverse fields, from classical thermodynamics, where it was first recognized, to the microscopic description of nature in statistical physics, and to the principles of information theory. It has found far-ranging applications in chemistry and physics, in biological systems and their relation to life, in cosmology, economics, sociology , weather science, climate change, and information systems including the transmission of information in telecommunication. Every known thing, will eventually succumb to Entropy. I found the concept of entropy, captivating, thought provoking, and I couldn’t help but wonder if entropy applies to what I do. I’m a full time trader. When I am asked what I do for a living, that is always my response. But I also associate with being termed a financial pattern analyst, an Elliotition, or just a plain ole’ analyst. As an Elliotiion, I practice the financial forecasting principles discovered by RN Elliott in the early 1930’s. My association with Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) was a normal one, as I never conceded price action was random. Even as a young investment banker in my twenties, I always had this nagging notion, that however subjective or complex the stock market appeared to be, that eventually a simple construct would emerge that would lift the veil of the random, to allow for a more scientific methodology to answer the movements of stock prices and markets. My introduction to the principles of Elliott Wave Theory started that quest for answers to seemingly unanswerable. In Elliott Wave Theory, counter-trend patterns such as waves 2, 4 and B, are areas of potential complexity. It is within these particular wave degrees that some of the most obscure financial price action patterns come into view. From triangles, to WXY's, and the gamut of pattern complexity carves out their shapes here. To even the most seasoned Elliotition these areas can cause confusion, mislabeling and undoubtedly, uncertainty. In the intermediate sense, they mean less. But when observed in the larger cyclical timeframes, these areas are always associated with economic and/or societal change. The last financial supercycle waves took place on October 1929 wave (I), and April 1932 wave (II). Post 1932, financial prices have advanced seemingly unabated for 90 years. During this 90-year timeline, humanity has advanced in technology, medicine, communication, etc…all of which have impacted living conditions and average life span. These advancements changed migration patterns, mobility and communication. I can’t help but think, is now the precipice of where our 90 year advance and the natural order of entropy have hit a tipping point and henceforth, entropy now has statistical favor? Granted I am not skilled to discuss societal matters or medicine, etc…but from an analysts perspective…Is flat to down now the path of least resistance in the markets for the foreseeable future? Along the way of the 90 year advance in the SP500 you can see the historical events that have occurred and their impact on price action. Those price action sub-divisions were the result of the best and worst of times post 1932. My children, now grown adults, were financially shaped most by the 2008 financial crisis. However, in the grand scheme of super-cycles…you can barely make out those declines on the above chart. The final anecdote I’ll share is in 1991, when my wife and I bought our first home. Making what we believed to be one of the largest purchases we would make in our young lives, we watched mortgage rates as they flucuated. Then, we pulled the trigger to lock in rates, due to a short term dip, and at the time, felt we were wiser than most. So happy with our shrewdness in locking in 9.75% APR on a 30 year fixed mortgage. In retrospect, mortgage rates never went back above 10%. The last two decades, fiscal policy was on a longer term trajectory to 1-3%. We were not the gurus we made ourselves out to be back then. Maybe that trajectory down was a reversion to the mean in the post Larry Summers Fiscal policy of the mid to late 1970’s. Seems so now with the benefit of hindsight. But now it feels like that again…but this time the reversion to the mean is a post Ben Bernake fiscal policy. I can’t say for sure, as I do not posses that kind of foresight with respect to interest rates. What I can say, is having analyzed 150 years of price action, financial entropy is starting to rear it’s head. If this is in fact starting price action of a supercycle wave (IV). The buy and hold strategy is dead. This will be a traders market for at least the next two decades, or more. Case in point…observe the area in the red box on the above chart. This area is a primary circle wave 4 of one lesser degree within a cycle wave III. That wave 4 consoldation lasted from 1996 until the beginning of 2013. That was manageable. That was also 17 years of price action digestion from the previous 1974 stock market bottom. Since our previous supercycle events, we have experienced wars, advancements in technology, medicine, migration patterns OH AND WE EXPERIENCED a global pandemic. Mirroring what led up to previous (I), (II) wave degrees. I don’t post this to scare readers, nor do I seek ANY attention. I do not ever see myself as being referenced as the trader who called the top of some market in some time. I forecast these things to evaluate if I can make money as a trader from the forecasts. In conclusion, I’ll leave you with one of the wisest quotes I ever heard as it pertains to what I wanted to achieve as a trader when I started. Its not from a wise greek philosopher. Its from Cuba Gooding Jr. in the 1996 movie Jerry Maguire. “I’m already famous…now just show me the money”
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
#ES_F Day Trading Prep For the Week 8.07-8.11Last Week : Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested. We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets. This Week : Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours. Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it... Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside. IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down. For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now. Levels to Watch : Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25 If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue Support // Current 4487-79 Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45 Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
3
8/11: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday, CPI delivered as expected with plenty of large, bi-directional swings and traps. Despite this volatility, ES followed the general trade plan well, defending the 4493 support zone and continuing the rally to high 4530s. The market closed right at the 4493-88 level, which has been tested six times since last Friday. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines Producer Price Index reports higher than expectations. Key Structures The core structure remains a declining channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4467-69, and resistance will be 4580. Support Levels The support levels for today are 4475, 4467-69 (major), 4452-55 (major), 4446, 4438, 4431, 4423 (major), 4413 (major), 4397-4401 (major), 4383, 4367 (major), 4351, 4338 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major). Resistance Levels The resistance levels for today are 4492-88 (major), 4500, 4509-13 (major),4522, 4527 (major), 4539, 4543-46 (major), 4554, 4560 (major), 4570, 4580-85 (major), 4592, 4598, 4608 (major), 4617 (major), 4625, 4635, 4643 (major), 4650, 4657 (major), 4665, 4681 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today would involve ES defending the 4469-67 zone lowest, then reclaiming that 4493-88. From there, we’d make the same trip - back to 4509, dip, then up again to 4540s. If we do flush again today, 4450 is the last shot for bulls. The bear case begins on the fail of 4469-67. I’d need to see a bounce or failed breakdown here to drain demand from the level, then I’d consider short perhaps 4466 for the move down the levels. The real sell comes on the fail of 4452-55. After an initial bounce to drain demand, I’d be looking to short the breakdown here perhaps 4445 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up These remain complex conditions, but also prime conditions for traders who just trade the levels and aren’t focused on trying to predict the price action. My general lean for today is that ES can defend that yellow flag support (4469 lowest), then reclaim 4493 to try back up to 4509+ again. If 4469 fails, we test 4450. Real selling starts below. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/10: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The month of August has seen a shift in trading character, with massive bi-directional swings in the ES. The ES made four full round trips from the 4535+ zone down to the 4480-90 zone since Friday alone. On Tuesday, the ES rallied to 4532 then dipped back down to the 4480-90 zone and held. The 4493-88 zone remains the most important area in ES, as it back-tests the zone we broke out from on July 12th, triggering a 3 week rally. Today is CPI day, which are typically the most volatile and difficult trading days of the year. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines It’s inflation day. US Consumer Price Index inflation prints slightly below expectations at 3.2%. Key Structures The core structure now remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4475, and resistance will be 4580. Everything inside equals consolidation. Support Levels Supports are: 4493-87 (major), 4484, 4475 (major), 4467, 4459, 4453-48 (major), 4438, 4420-23 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4382, 4368 (major), 4351, 4340-45 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4508-04 (major), 4521 (major), 4528, 4538-40 (major), 4547, 4559 (major), 4569, 4579-83 (major), 4592, 4598-4601, 4614-17 (major), 4624, 4631, 4639-43 (major), 4647, 4660, 4670, 4677-80 (major), 4692 (major), 4705. Trading Plan For CPI days, price can squeeze very hard, through multiple levels so any shorts that are counter-trend must be taken small and at your own risk. The 4538-40 zone remains a strong resistance. If ES were to dip, this is the spot before we head to 4579-83. Bull case today: We are clinging right to that major 4493-88 support zone right as I write this. As long as this general cluster keeps holding, the bull case is alive and well. Bear case today: Begins now on fail of 4475. As always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there, followed by a base building. Then I’d consider short perhaps 4472. Wrap Up CPI day - it is not possible to predict and we can easily see 4300s or 4600s (or absolutely nothing). I’ll be reacting and picking my spots. If today were a normal day, my general lean would be that we would keep defending this 4493 support zone (4475 on any spikes down) then continue the rally to 4509, then onto high 4530s. Dip there before higher. 4475 fails, we sell. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/9: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The week started with a squeeze due to ES back-testing the crucial 4493 level from its July 12th breakout. This led to a technically perfect 48 point rally on Monday. However, markets are known to be unpredictable and often trap players in a cycle of relentless dip buying and selling. Tuesday saw a sell-off from Monday's highs down to 4480s, followed by a hard squeeze in the afternoon. The squeeze started once again from the 4487-93 zone. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headlines White House will announce today new investment restrictions in advanced technology industries such as advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Key Structures Several key structures are in place, including a declining channel from the July 27th high, which is technically a bull flag. Support for this is now at 4493-87, and resistance will be at 4581-85. Other noteworthy levels include 4509, which has been a dominant magnet this week, and 4493-87, which represents major June/July resistance. Support Levels The support levels to watch are: 4515, 4505-09 (major), 4493-88 (major), 4475, 4464-66, 4450-53 (major), 4443 (major), 4432, 4420-23 (major), 4411, 4400 (major), 4387, 4370, 4362 (major), 4351, 4345 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4532 (major), 4540, 4548 (major), 4558, 4574, 4581-85 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4614, 4625, 4637-40 (major), 4655, 4665, 4674 (major), 4687 (major). Trading Plan Bulls need to hold the 4493 backtest, and 4509 should continue to hold as well. If 4509 fails, it could lead to a trip back down to 4493-88. For bears, 4509-05 needs to fail. In terms of adding on strength, a nice bull flag overnight below 4520 and above 4509 could lead to a push to 4530+. Wrap Up Bulls defended an important support at 4493, and now need to keep running this. The general lean is for bulls to continue defending 4509, then run to 4530 or so, dip, then 4548. If 4509 fails, it's back down the levels again.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Weekly Update: Are we Headed for Bad Times?I have been on Trading View for almost a year now. In that timeframe I have been fortunate enough to have almost 2,600 people who follow my work, shared almost 700 ideas within that community, and founded my website for paying members. Yesterday, we held a training / education Zoom call and dissected the move up off the October low of 3502. The purpose of this call was to strictly adhere to EWT rules & guidelines as we went through the chart literally day by day. The quick version of the outcome of that call was we have topped in the primary B countertrend rally. This conclusion was reached largely because of 2 major areas of focus from the October 2022 lows. The initial pattern, and the final impulsive portion of the pattern from March until the recent highs. Now I know most people may find this hard to accept. I fully expect the comments section to be lively but the notion of the initial portion of the pattern started off as a leading diagonal, is just plain wrong . Please allow me to explain. In preparation for this training, I spent time putting together my deck of slides, with an agenda to refer back to the live chart. As I went through the pattern and spotted what some Elliottitions would consider a leading diagonal off the 3502 bottom, I decided to spend some time researching Leading Diagonals. The reason being the theme of the call was the proper application of EWT rules and guidelines. So I wanted to be sure I was not assuming when I applied rules associated with ending diagonals to leading diagonals. What I found was eye-opening to me because I never questioned what LD’s were. Like some, I have always applied diagonals (ending or leading) as 3,3,3,3,3’s. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated this would be a series of abc’s but labeled as 1,2,3,4 and 5 with the 4 overlapping the 1. NOT SO FAST! My research turned up that although Ending Diagonals are a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern with governing rules, the larger EWT community is not 100% agreed on Leading Diagonals. Here’s an excerpt from AJ Frosts and Robert Prechter’s book, “Elliott Wave Principle”. Leading Diagonal It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, but the jury is out on a strict definition, as 5,3,5,3,5 that overlap are also accepted. These patterns were not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity. The notion of an LD is a relatively new idea that, in truth is accepted among many Elliottitions, but not all due a lack of governing rules. Well, I now have a quandary with respect to my upcoming zoom call with my membership. The entire basis of the call is the proper application of EWT Rules and or Guidelines. If there are no agreed upon rules, let alone guidelines, what do I do when the call begins and we start to examine the initial pattern off the 3502 bottom? I had already announced and scheduled the call. I decided to apply both loosely mentioned counts to this pattern (3,3,3,3,3 and 5,3,5,3,5) …and guess what? None of them apply. Not even close. You can go through the pattern yourself and what anyone is going to come away with when analyzing the initial pattern from 3502 on October 13, 2022 to the high of 4180 on December 22, 2022 is a an abc. If you have any doubts here’s the pattern zoomed in. So, based on the initial pattern being an abc...this entire move from start to finish was going to be corrective, or a countertrend advance. Trend being down. The last portion of the pattern that is impulsive starting in March 13th, 2023 until July 27th, 2023 should be labeled as following: C waves will normally terminate at the 1.618% fib extension....in which price did. Therefore, I firmly believe we have topped based on the fact that the leading diagonal may not even be a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern at worst, and at best, if it exists, has loosely based governing rules or guidelines. Lastly the impulsive portion of the pattern from March to July terminated at 1.618% of the initial pattern. I think it's a VERY VERY high probability we topped in July....and more importantly...should lead to a decline that could signify bad times ahead. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
8/8: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As predicted in my last newsletter, the ES saw a relief bounce after putting in 4 consecutive red days for the first time since May. I went long late on Friday afternoon at 4493 and we saw a rally from 4493 on Friday to 4522 overnight on Monday, followed by a dip and then a continued rise. This was due to a technical backtest of a 3-week ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit World Headlines China CPI and PPI data show deflation becoming a serious concern Moody’s downgrades numerous US regional banks and puts six larger banks on watch Key Structures The core structure now is a downtrend channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, with support at 4493-87 and resistance at 4592. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone and the 4528 level are noteworthy. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium-term channel. Support Levels The major support levels are 4527, 4509, 4493-87, 4475-70, 4448-51, 4438, 4421, 4397-4402, 4350-55, and 4307-4311. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels are 4538, 4556, 4577-80, 4591, 4620, 4634, 4668. Trading Plan I'm still holding my leftover 10% runner from 4493 and will only add if we get a good dip. After yesterday's rally, I think tricky, tactical, back and forth action is likely today. The best entry would be if we clipped 4509 support then popped to 4515. I'm not interested in buying the 4509 again as it's no longer a fresh level. In terms of shorts, I favor 4556 and 4577-80. Wrap Up While we dip today, bulls will want to defend that 4509 support at the lowest. The direct bull case would look something like holding above 4527, popping to 4549 or 4556, then heading up to 4577-80. The short-term bear case begins with the fail of 4509. I think things likely get tactical today, rewarding level to level day traders only with no bias. Expect bi-directional action. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August started off with a bearish week for ES, marking its first red week in a month. The month is historically bearish at the start but bullish towards the end. Last week saw a rare three consecutive red days, a pattern only exceeded once since the March low. A relief bounce was anticipated, with a target of 4550, which played out as expected. ES then experienced its 4th red day in a row last Friday. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Mixed World Headlines Bond market volatility continues as Fridays strong bounce is starting to look like a dead cat bounce this morning. Key Structures Several main structures are being monitored, including a new downtrend channel extending from the July 27th high. This is technically a bull flag, but only becomes one on the breakout. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone is significant, having been tested three times and failed, triggering a 50 point sell. The 4524 level is another critical point, acting as support for the ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th. Support Levels Key support levels include 4493, 4487, 4475-73, 4461, 4448-53, 4443, 4425-30, 4413, and 4395-4400. Resistance Levels Resistance is found at 4509, 4515, 4520-24, 4534, 4538, 4547-50, 4555, 4567, 4578-80, 4585, 4592, 4597, 4609, 4617, and 4624. Trading Plan A small long position was taken at the 4493 level last Friday. If this zone fails, the market could free fall again, with the "major" zones being potential knife catch spots. For the bulls, the key hurdles are 4509 and 4524. For the bears, the case begins on the loss of 4487. Wrap Up While bears remain in control, there is caution over short-squeeze risk after four consecutive red days. The general lean for today is that ES can hold the 4487-93 zone, then try to retest 4520-24, perhaps with a small dip, then try higher. If 4487 fails, the market could continue downward. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro