S&P Back in the Downtrend ChannelTarget is the bottom of this channel or this first support line below
Es!
My todays' view on SPX500 futureHi Traders,
This is my view for today on ES
Micro and macro structure are aligned. Next target will be 3900 and can be reached immediately after a manipulation around Asian Session High or with a retest on 4000 level on a strong SUPPLY zone. (I’ll personally wait for this retest to go short).
Pit, Trading Kitchen
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
———————————
SP500, is this the next leg lower?SP500
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
In this video I explain my thoughts on SP500 Emini chart. Good luck.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
SP500, a setup for the bears.SP500, SP500, Emini, ES / 4H
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
SP500 has rejected a major level on the monthly and broken to the down side and now is testing the brekaout point.
I'll be looking for a short postion around 4080 if I get a confirmition on LTF.
trade safely,
Trader Leo.
SP500, why you should be carefull on the current rally.SP500 / Multi-Time-Frame.
AUDUSD / 4H
Dear Traders,
I warmly welcome you to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis on SP500 pair.
From a weekly viewpoint, in my opinion, SPY looks remarkably bearish . A Double top formation with a previous high on the monthly time frame, and the downward trend has already begun as seen from last month's close.
Everything appears to be pointing towards the onset of the next bear move.
Currently, on the daily timeframe , we are experiencing a pull-back to the Broken support that might turn into resistance. Therefore, I am patiently waiting for my sell zone to be reached and will be looking on lower time frames for a good entry point in case I get my entry creteria validated.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
#ES_F 3.09.23 Day Trading Prep Wednesday 3.08.23 Review : Consolidated under previous Daily Support with a few attempts to break 3976-71 Key Intraday Support but we held within this 4015-3975 balance. Best trade was when we hit double top in E 11:30 Period, gave a nice trade down to Intraday Support, was thinking we fill finally have more supply to break and continue but so far that has not been the case which tells us its controlled mark down selling with stops at good support areas.
Thursday 3.09.23 Prep : Will see continuation lower today or do we have enough to again hold and maybe even push higher? We have been holding under Previous Daily Support of 4012-3990 for two days now with Supply trapped above. We are looking like we could see more selling today as we are at the T2 and Previous Day Lows, under Previous Daily Support, have Supply above and have this nice sideways action to built up, 3976-71 is again our Key Intraday Support to watch as that is the area we need to take out and accept under to see a move towards next potential Support to see what we do there. If we do hold Intraday Support or bounce from 3957-53 area and get back over 3976-71 then we could see more balancing action in this 4025-3976 range, 3995-90 is our Current Resistance and 4012-08 will be our Key Resistance today.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 4030-25 Current 3995-90
Support : Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53
ES - if no bounce, possible head and shouldersIf we don't get a higher bounce on es, chances are this head and shoulders pattern is playing out. This idea is invalid if we get over 4060 again, in which case the previous scenario (linked below) is playing out. I'm watching the daily 18ma at 4034, if they get over that level, a bigger bounce is likely playing out. If they stall near the 50ma at 4013, then this rally may be over quickly.
good luck!
SPX futures - watch for an unexpected rally This is what may be happening as an alternative to the immediate sell off. Note the 2hr rsi, how low it is again.
The end of the day may look bearish but with the RSI this low, another move higher to test 4100 is still quite possible. Support is 3990 area, Under 3950 and this idea is likely invalid.
Good Luck!
Intraday Update: $AAPL showing weakness$AAPL exhibiting weakness with a hard rejection this morning and acted as a strong supply zone over the past several months since Nov. I fully expect another leg down to happen as long as it continue to reject.
Weekly Update: ES to 3800The last several weeks I have written about the move to the 3800 level and with the smaller chance of a direct move to the low 3,000 level right now. Clearly, there are people on both sides of the bullish/bearish equation and they’re not shy to share their support or disdain for my forecasts. I’m grateful for that, because that is what makes a market.
However, the price action is voting now and, although not there as of my writing this update, it appears my targets will be hit. I will not spend an outsized amount of time regurgitating my analysis. I will point out that events that encompass a super cycle retrace of gains, is a reversion to the mean of what brought us to this event.
Yes, I’m talking about inflation and the unprecedented hikes in interest rates. This boils down to a new way of thinking. The acceptance of higher interest rates is the main one. Inflation will ebb and flow, but interest rates are going far higher over the longer term than most think…and most will accept right now.
Powell Testifies SenateInflation will need more hikes. Probably bigger than 25bps I can tell you that:)
#ES_F 3.07.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.06.23 Review : Globex pushed us into the resistance area at 4061-56, RTH Opened on Gap up and buyers came in for continuation, we hit our upper early in the day and then consolidated below it. 4084-77 was our key area for continuation higher and we failed to take it out and showed weakness at it instead, until we built up enough Supply which gave us a nice short trade towards Previous Days range.
Tuesday 3.07.23 Prep : Are we getting any move out today or staying in balance? We have Powell doing something at 10 and we are at an important location, we have few weeks of Supply above us over 4084 - 4100 and we possibly trapped enough shorts under 4030 - 4015 to give us Support. These are the areas to watch for a move out of this current 4077-4030 range. We have been going sideways in smaller range all night around this 4061-56 Resistance area and we have to see what we do from here. We are right in the middle of the range inside yesterdays value which tells us it could be choppy and also the range has been tight so far which is not ideal for trading until that changes. 4084-77 is still our Key Resistance for continuation higher and any break down would need to break and accept under 4030-25 for continuation, until then can stay in balance.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Current 4061-56
Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current 4046-42
My today's view on ESHi Traders,
This is my view for today on ES.
First strong LONG reaction which puts me on a BULLISH perspective today. So 3960 could be a good zone to let the price re-aligning with the bullish micro structure. Anyway, the Macro one's tells me we're bearish yet and the strong supply zone on 4120 could be good for us.
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view.
Pit, Trading Kitchen
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
———————————
#ES_F 3.06.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.03.23 Review : Friday Globex consolidated at Previous Day High, took the stops at night and we opened on a gap up over Previous Day High in RTH. Failed to closed the gap and gave a push towards the upper resistance target and a move above it into the next Supply area.
Monday 3.06.23 Prep : What are our options today, Will this move higher hold and we can continue today? Was this short covering move front running bigger support and we will continue lower today to find more buyers or do we need to balance again before deciding next bigger direction? Globex is building stops above Previous day high inside our Supply possible Resistance area, we are under Daily Resistance with few weeks of Supply above that we have already flushed but not everyone sells at once. We are inside Previous Days Range, above T2 range with not much Support below us which means size will break the lower levels if we find sellers up here today. If we dont have size sellers come in today at these higher areas and we can hold above 4030-25 and 4046-42 then we could see another attempt at 4061-56 and next resistance area above. If we fail to get over and Previous Day high and hold/continue higher we could see a move down towards Previous Day Half Back under 4030-25 level, that would be key area for continuation lower today, we do have some support under but if size sellers come in we can see us head for the Daily area we just broke out of around 4012-3990 which is also our T2 High area, if we do get there that would be the area to watch for acceptance in T2 range and continuation lower. Currently we are in 4077-4030 range and if we arent going to make a move out then we could also trade within this area from the edges.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4100-4084 // 4084-61 Key Intraday 4061-56 Key For Continuation Higher 4084-77
Support : Key Daily 4012-3990 Next Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Key For Continuation Lower 3994-88 // 3976-71
Longest streak of consecutive down days since September 2022Since October 2022, we kept reiterating that the primary downtrend had not ended and that we were merely seeing another bear market rally. Furthermore, we were monitoring the market’s sentiment, which changed from “FED’s pivot” hopes (in October 2022) to a “soft landing” narrative (in December 2022/January 2023). However, in line with our expectations, weak corporate earnings and outlook downgrades combined with hawkish FED started to test the bullish thesis about the market recovery.
SPX closed down six days in a row, representing the longest streak of consecutive down days since September 2022. That can make a case for a short-term rebound in the price of SPX. Although, we do not expect it to impact the primary downtrend. We anticipate higher interest rates to slow down the U.S. economy and worsening economic data to spook the market participants. In addition to that, we see a high risk of a strong selloff if inflation accelerates again, just like in some European countries.
For example, the preliminary data showed that inflation increased to 6.1% (YoY) in February 2023 from 5.9% (YoY) in January 2023. In addition to that, core inflation accelerated to 7.7% (YoY) in February 2023, up from 7.5% (YoY) in January 2023. The same applies to France, which saw two consecutive months of accelerating inflation.
Since the FED faces the same threat, we do not expect it to change its course of monetary policy. Quite contrarily, some FED members are already vocal about the FOMC reverting back to 50 basis point rate hikes (which we do not see as very likely at this point). Despite that, we believe the U.S. economy is not out of the woods and has many obstacles ahead. Accordingly, we maintain a bearish view of the market beyond the short term.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. Interestingly, SPX experienced six consecutive down days, the longest streak since September 2022.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish (very weak trend)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of SPX. Interestingly, SPX seems to be forming a narrow range between Support 1 and Resistance 1.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Weekly prediction for ES_F After a wild week when we bounced cleanly off the 200DMA, backtest of the trendline andf it just went up with 0DTE flows going crazy. I'm thinking we trend up and then go for a liquidity grab lower. How low no one knows but I have my areas for y'all to reference if needed.
SPX - Prepare for bounceI think a bounce bounce to 4100 or more is coming as part of the larger triangle structure. RSI is quite low and the price action is choppy - like they are winding up for a move out of the channel. 4100 or more would certainly convince bulls that "all is well" and the uptrend WILL continue, but I don't think that would be the case. If anything, 4100 is an ideal short for a larger move down to 3700-3600.
Good luck!
#ES_F 3.03.23 Day Trading Prep 3.02.23 Review : Globex broke 57-44 Support area and was holding under before RTH signaling weakness but that and 32-27 were important areas to stay under and break, RTH Open failed to break 32-27 then we got over 3944-40 and per our morning prep IF we hold 32-27 and managed to get over 44-40 and hold that opens the door for higher resistance target and we got a move back towards our Daily Resistance area around 3990. We failed to tag next Daily Support which tells us we got front ran by short covering.
3.03.23 Prep: Did we run out of supply and now ready to either hold or continue higher? Or was this move inventory correction from Wednesday close and short covering before Daily Support and we will head for that area again? Right now we are holding in our Daily Resistance area of 4012-3990, this and 3976-71 will be important areas to hold today for either balance or continuation over 4012 towards 4030. If we fail to accept in 4012-3990 area and get under it that will signal weakness and a possible move wards 3976-71 where we don't have as much Support under, if that breaks we can see a move lower again to test our T2 and Previous Days lows and possibly look below them. If we do hold 76-71 and are able to stay over 94-90 we can see a move higher towards the top of Daily Resistance at 4012-08 where we would watch for continuation above or not, that will be our Key Resistance area for today.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 Key For Continuation Higher 4030-25
Support : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Current 3994-90 ? Key For Continuation 3957-53
Copper Support & ResistanceCopper is struggling at resistance. Often when Copper Struggles, so to does the S&P500.
Copper can be ultra sensitive to the Dollar and yields, so watch it carefully as an economic barometer.
Did stocks just bottom? Are they going higher or lower?It looks like stocks bottomed today, but what is my evidence, and why would I say that?
1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening.
2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY.
3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and that doesn't just mean the BoJ and PBoC. Since the Sep-Nov issues that bond markets faced globally, even the Fed and Treasury have increased market liquidity.
4. Current debts can't be repaid. That's why bonds are going down (yields up). There is no way governments can't pay these dividends through taxation and can only repay them with printed money. Now you can hold both a depreciating asset that pays dividends and riskier assets. Chasing a fool's yield isn't ideal, but it's a strategy. Higher yields = more money supply will be created. High inflation isn't necessarily bad for stock markets, contrary to what the majority wrongly believes.
5. During this correction, sentiment has become increasingly bearish, with most investors being bearish.
At the CryptoBullSociety, in private channels, as well as on my Twitter account, I have been talking about the market piercing the 200 DMA and bottoming. Yesterday I shared bullish ideas on Tradingview for metals and Chinese stocks, which also permeates to US stocks after such a substantial rise since Oct 2022; the market needed to test bulls and, as usual, pull into the golden cross before going higher. On their way up, stocks swept some highs and filled some gaps, but some gaps were left unfilled higher, along with some newly formed double tops. Even if markets are about to go lower, I believe SPX will first test 4350-4400 and then go lower. By lower, I mean more of a sideways market than a continuation of the bear market or an outright crash. So far, we have seen the major US indices pull into their crosses, test support, sweep lows, and today form a reversal candle. Below are many US-related charts showing all the potential targets (double tops, double bottoms, etc.). The reason why I call them targets is that the market tends to break these structures. As we've been trending higher, it's more likely we will first take out the double tops and then the double bottoms.
Currently, nothing indicates a crash, while there are indications of a bottom being in. To be clear, I am not saying we are ready to fly to the moon tomorrow, although we could. Given the system's structure, with most governments being broke, more money will be created. Below you can see some charts of other stock markets, like the GER40 (DAX), UK100 (FTSE), and CN50 (CHINA). I also added the S&P500 value index, IVE. UK100 is at new ATHs, GER40 near highs seem to be in tight consolidation before expansion, CN50 appears to be back in a bullish trend after capitulation (something I talked about in yesterday's idea, which you can find below), and IVE almost made new ATHs a few weeks ago.
My overall point is that sentiment is bearish, while I believe liquidity will keep increasing, causing a short squeeze that could last at least until SPX gets to 4350. As I've mentioned in my previous ideas, it's unlikely that we would get a 2000 or 2008 crash so quickly after the Fed started tightening, and if we get one, it will probably be in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. The path I've drawn in the chart is what I see as the most likely one, followed by another significant correction. Of course, I could be wrong, so my stop loss is at 3840
#ES_F 3.02.23 Day Trading Prep 3.01.23 Review : Wednesday RTH Opened under 3976-71 which signaled possible move to our lower targets, we did do a full break of our 3957-44 Support area and tagged our target but did not see the full move down towards 3931-27. This is area of cost basis for size traders so we expect to see balancing action and buying around our Support areas, especially on first tests and so far selling is mechanical so we aren't breaking multiple areas at once.
3.02.23 Prep : Globex broke 3957-53 and sold off down to our 3932-31 target where we found Support. Currently we are in this 3955-25 balance under the supply from previous days, inventory is short from yesterdays close, we are under T2 range and trying to hold inside Previous Days Range. We are getting into next Daily Support area here so very possible to see stronger buyers and at the same time we have plenty of supply above still coming out it looks like, will we get continuation through our next Daily Support area today? or will we hold this current balance and maybe try to make a push back over 3957-53? So far looks like we are looking good for possible continuation but as we saw for past weeks it hasn't been easy and things have been taking a long time to set up and show direction unless we switch it up today. This 3957-44 area will be our Key Resistance today, holding under means continued weakness and can bring on a test of 3932-27, If we managed to break that we have juicy stops lined up below ready to be filled down to 3892 as that is the next Daily cost basis low. If we do accept back in Previous days range and can hold over 3944-40 that can give us a push back over this resistance area and we could look for higher targets but until then we should be expecting some balance at the lows or continuation.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-44 Key Intraday 3957-53 // 3944-40 Key For Continuation Higher 3976-71
Support : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3937-27 Key For Continuation Lower 3915-10
*** We are Under a lot of supply and only buyers are shorts who are covering, if shorts see more supply they will drop the bid. IF we do happen to get down to 3900 area today with time left, IF 3890 breaks not much support there until 3870 and under.
Weekly Update: Market Analysis for the Intermediate TermI have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area.
This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say our “Rips” will not have meat on the bone so to speak.
Let’s start with where we are now. We are currently in the middle of carving out a complex w-x-y pattern for our b-wave low in the area of 3772-3653. A breach of 3788 is a target I have been discussing in our trading room for a while now. Upon getting into my target box, I plan on designating the summer of 2023, as "The Summer of LOVE"...lol. This is where traders LOVE the long side once again. This could constitute a RIP that has a lot of MEAT on the bone. We're talking about a potential move up of 700-900 points.
I am speculating when I say, the sentiment would be during this rally that the FED has pivoted, inflation has moderated, "maybe scientists will determine that "Dogs and cats can live together in harmony " (Joke)...but this rally will only give way to a 3rd quarter to end of 2023 being dismal.
Why, you ask?
Because this is the last hurrah for "Buy the Dips" trading mentality. This gives way to despair, as we shed 30%-35% in short order.
I mean this sincerely when I say..."Stay Safe".
Best to all,
Chris
ES_F 3.01.23 Day Trading Prep 2.28.23 Review : Tuesday Globex made a push back inside Previous Daily Support area of 4012-3990 before RTH where we found Supply and got our move towards 3976-71 where we found buyers first time around but managed to break it towards end of day.
3.01.23 Prep : Was end of day flush yesterday a move to take in more supply at lower prices and we can hold in balance today with possible move back inside Previous Daily Support and over? or will we see some continuation to Yesterday? Price has been holding under Daily Support which is signaling weakness but we can see we still have buying every push lower. Globex did give us open continue to yesterdays shorts, tagging our lower Support where we again found buyers to get us back over 3976-71. Today holding above 3976-71 which be somewhat of stability for us and if we can see a move over 3994-90 and accept back in Daily Support we could see a move back towards Previous Day high and possibly over towards our bigger supply area above. IF We fail to get back over 3994-90 and make a move under 3975-71 We are watching to see if we can make a move under Previous Day low towards lower Support and if we can hold under 76-71 a possible move towards the other side of that range towards 3944-40 // 3937-27 where we would watch for next reaction.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 3994-90 Key For Continuation Higher 4030-27
Support - Key Daily 3930-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Key For Continuation Lower 3957-53 // 3944-40
