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#ES_F 2.22.23 Day Trading Prep 2.21.23 Review: Tuesday Globex made a move under Previous Day Low and our 4061-56 Support. RTH Opened, filled the gap and got continuation lower into our next Daily Support at 4012-08. The way we opened/drove made me think there is a chance to break Daily Support but market held after the break and that tells us that selling is still mechanical and that its just supply coming out no outside selling. 2.22.23 Prep: We are currently sitting on top of our Daily Support of 4012-3990, Globex made a move under 4012-08 took the stops but didn't have supply to tag 3994-89. Tricky day today with the Fed Minutes but we have some good references to watch. We are inside Previous Day Range and over our Daily Support and these will be key areas today, we are still under T2 range which means we should see more sellers at some point but we need to watch which areas they step in, if we don't have outside supply right now then then price could still head higher before finding sellers if sellers come in at all unless more volume comes in at RTH and they take it lower right away. We are at Support area and we have to treat it as such until broken. Right now 4012-08 // 4094-89 are our key areas for continuation lower and 4030-25 is what we will be watching to make a move higher. Our bigger supply areas for the day are over 4046-4061 and 4084-77 possible areas to watch where more sellers can step in if we get there. If Daily Support gets broken we will watch for possible targets down to 3976-71 // 3957-53 a potential area to find support. Levels to Watch: Resistance - Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4061-56 Intraday 4046-42 // 4030-25 Support - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 3994-89 // 3976-71 // 3957-53 Intraday 4012-08 ? *** Caution as Minutes can bring big swings today at 2.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 2.21.23 Day Trading Prep 2.16-17.23 Review: Thursday we failed to continue over 4170 and failed to hold 4143-37 which gave us a move to our lower target down at T2 low and a break of 4103-4099. Friday we opened at potential support area and were able to hold it during the day due to short covering before the weekend with a move back towards potential resistance towards the close but failed to get over it and get back towards 4100. 2.21.23 Prep: We are not counting Sunday/Monday action because of the Holiday. Currently inventory is short compared to Friday's close, we are under T2 low, barely inside Previous dat Range and are under Daily Support. Will we see continuation today and how far can we go? We will have to see what they got in store for us, we have now accepted in this 4080-4030 range, currently still have support at this 4061-56 area. Since inventory is short we might see some correction before or after open and from there we need to see if we will get a continuation move today or a reversal back towards 4100. For any move higher to sustain I think we would want to see price take out 4084-77 and base there before moving over 4100. For continuation lower we want to see us holding under 4084-77and eventually take out Previous day low and continue, Our next potential support is under 4030-25 which would be our next Daily Support at 4015-3990. The way we are looking today, we should see some continuation but anything can happen and we could balance some more. We have supply now but we also have shorts covering each step lower which is giving us these holds, until we see us run out of supply or a big bid come in direction could still be lower with 4030-15 and under an area where we could see buying. Levels to Watch: Resistance - Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Support - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current ? 4061-56 *** Treat today as Monday and it might need time to show the move this morning. Watch where we open
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
SPY bullflag continuation or breakdown? I think its safe to say many of us have been surprised by the strenghth of the market these past few months. Global economic uncertainty is at all time highs, but the market doesnt care. Thats one reason I prefer to play the trends as opposed to making predictions. All too often I see furus on twitter making fools of themselves calling crashes every other day when its so obvious buyers (big buyers)have been accumulation for quite awhile. Market behavior is something you can only learn with screen time and lord knows I've spent enough time to know that the market character changed some months back. That does not mean it can't change again in a heart beat. I'll be watching for the shift. On to my analysis....Whether or not we get a continuation of the bullflag -and resulting breakout will entirely depend on whether we can hold the bf channel bottom at 403. Keep in mind this is the 4th test of that channel bottom and each test weakens that support. Failure should bring us to the untested demand zone at 398-400 which also an inflection point because it coincides with the rising channel from Oct lows + the 50 ma is rising into that are and if spy is indeed in a bull market, the 50ma will act as support. Let me know what you think. I always appreciate feedback. Cheers.
AMEX:SPY
by GreenBoxTrading
The opposite Side Of A Wave-5 Rally - Plan BI received a question from someone watching my videos/research. The question was, "what is the downside risk for the markets if my bullish resolution fails". So, I created this video. This explains why the downside risks appear to be less than 35% right now compared to a 65% to 75% upside price resolution. Still, using Elliot Wave, we can't be 100% confident in the true future of price structure or wave structure. All we can rely upon is Fibonacci Price Theory which tells us if price is currently Bullish or Bearish. Right now, on this weekly chart, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a bullish price trend is in place and recent Unique Low levels are the final defense of support (near $348). Follow along to better understand how I see/use Fibonacci Price Theory in all of my research as a method of letting price tell me what to expect in the future. The one other thing I would like to add is all previous market collapse events have aligned with cataclysmic economic events (9/11, Global Banking Crisis, Foreign Economic Crisis, Isolated Credit Risks). Without some cataclysmic economic event happening, it is very unlikely that US markets would contract extensively without some impulse event. So keep that in mind as we move forward. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY Cycle Patterns: Resolving volatility into March 2023This example video will help you understand how I use my predictive SPY Cycle Patterns in combination with traditional TA (Fibonacci and others) to prepare/plan for GAPS, trends, and opportunities for trading through the week. I'm a strong believer that you don't need to trade every minor trend. Taking 2~4 good trades a week across one or two symbols is all that is required to be able to generate 50% to 100% profit every week (using options). Just last week one of my friends used my SPY Cycle Patterns (and his own skills) to make over 700% ROI. It does happen. Watch this video. Next week will be very volatile in my opinion. Once we clear the upper resistance level, we should continue to trend up to $435 or higher. The burst of volatility will likely make for great trade setups - if you know what you are doing. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
Weekend Update: Are We About to TOP (or Topped) in the ES/SPX?In our trading room we’ve been tracking what I have characterized as the final stages of a rally that began back in October at the lows of 3502. The question remains are we topping, or have we already topped? Longer term, I deduce there are two schools of camp from my CNBC White Noise in the background of my trading office. The first is we’re in a new bull market and the October lows are the lows. After some messy chopping around, we’ve built a strong base to attack the January 2022 highs later this year. Now to give this camp credit, (let’s call this camp 1) they’re calling for a consolidation of the gains so far. The second camp (let’s call this camp 2) , is we’re eventually headed much lower than 3502, and the January 2022 highs will be handily put in the rear view mirror for years to come. Did I say years?...I'm sorry, I meant at least a decade. I’m in camp 2. But let’s get something out in the open first. Camp 1 and 2 both acknowledge a consolidation of gains from October is in order in the short term. But that’s where our similarities end. In last week’s post, I provided details analysis and context surrounding my LONG-TERM analytical thesis of price being in a Super Cycle wave (IV) area of consolidation. I will not be rehashing that analysis again this week. Instead, I want to provide less of a long-term picture, and what is in store for us in the weeks and months ahead. The past week was filled with opportunity on the long and short side of price action. Today was the first day since the December lows of 3788 we started to crack. We’ve been steadfast in tracking a pattern that ends at 4242. Why? Because price has given us no indication that it will NOT get there. Until today. Now some of you may be saying one day does not make a trend. I agree. But put several of those together and that’s what you have. The beginnings of a new trend back down. The main chart shows how we cracked today. This price action, so far, does not constitute invalidation...but we're close. I consider 4025 the last line of credible defense. Below that, and I have to give credit to the larger downside pattern. To confirm the downside pattern, we have to breach 3901.75 on the ES. That's a long way away. Nonetheless, if we consolidate below 4150 and stay below that price level. Not only do I see a breach of 3901.75...but a breach of 3788. This would just be the beginning. Now if we can hold and not breach 4025. There is a weak case to make that 4242 may get tagged. In conclusion, whether we've topped, or we get 4242 in next several weeks. Camp 1 is about to get a lesson in "don't buy the dip". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
SPY Example Setup For DaytradersHere is an example dual-chart setup for SPY daytraders. I set this up to help my followers understand how to perceive price action as we attempt to transition through the $405 SPY Support level. If my analysis is correct, we'll see a fairly strong reversion (upside) price trend as long as the $404~405 level holds. This chart includes a number of TradingView PUBLIC SCRIPTS and a dual-chart layout. Both Heiken-Ashi and traditional Candlestick charts are used. Learn to better TIME/ENTER your trades and learn to use price structure/Fibonacci retracements to develop target levels. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
1
SPX - The grind continues - plus AAPL, TESLA, AI, GEO, Nat GasDidn't get what I wanted to see today, that's trading for you. The possibility that we keep grinding higher for a week or more is certainly viable after today. Above we have the following - daily BB at 4190, Weekly BB at 4180, 100 weekly ma at 4215 and Monthly 18/20 at 4190 and 4210 respectfully. Some stocks like Tesla and AAPL seem to want to go higher after today and other stocks I'm watching also want to get a bounce. So there you have it, I was expecting something more but the market is simply not ready to drop. More grind will likely continue, even if we sell off tomorrow. I will keep watching and waiting for a definitive move down. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by the_sunship
4
2/16 SPY Cycle Patterns, Fib, Flagging - Volatility into a RALLYAre you following my SPY Cycle Patterns yet? If not, here is a list of the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week and beyond... 2/6/2023 2/7/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/8/2023 Harami-Inside 2/9/2023 CRUSH 2/10/2023 GAP Potential 2/11/2023 GAP Potential 2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal 2/13/2023 Rotation 2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21 2/15/2023 Consol-210 2/16/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/17/2023 Break-Away 2/18/2023 Carryover 2/19/2023 CRUSH 2/20/2023 Flat-Down 2/21/2023 POP 2/22/2023 2/23/2023 BaseRally301 2/24/2023 Harami-Inside 2/25/2023 CRUSH 2/26/2023 Bottom-004 Why are these so important? Because these SPY Cycle patterns help you understand how to trade intraday price swings and what to expect every day - going out weeks and months in advance of today's trading activity. See the "BaseRally301" on 2/23 - that means the SPY should attempt to setup a base/bottom within the 48 hours spanning 2/23. See the 2/25 CRUSH leading to the 2/26 BOTTOM - that means the SPY may be extremely volatile while attempting to setup/confirm the 2/23 bottom Today and tomorrow are calling for an Inside-Breakaway & a Breakaway. My research suggests we may see a broader downside price trend establishing a Wave-D Flagging setup (near $405) in the SPY before we move into the Rally/Bottom phase near 2/23. Watch my video and learn how you can use my research to become a better intraday/swing trader.
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
#ES_F Wednesday 2.15.23 Prep Wednesday 2.15.23 : Yesterday after CPI it looked like we could get our continuation lower after we took out 4123-19 Support but we failed to even tag 4103-4099 Key area for entrance back into T2 range where short covering came in and gave us a push back over 4143-37 telling us there is still good Daily Support in that area but the move higher failed to continue or reach 4168-62 because we trapped good amount of supply over 4150 in the morning to hold us down. Can we see that continuation today? Very possible because market has been showing us for last few days that we now have supply but not yet enough to take out T2 areas and make more people sell out. Today holding above Daily Support of 4123-4100 will be a sign of strength and we are inside T2 Range right by the high. Today 4123-19 will be our Key Support only with its break we can see continuation lower, if we fail to get back to 4123-19 and get over 4143-37 our T2 high area that will put next Resistance and Previous Day high as a good target, if we can make a push past that at some point and hold then could see us go for the stops over 4191-85 towards 4220-15. On the downside if 4123-19 breaks we are looking at Previous Day and T2 low as targets and possible break and continue. Unless those break and continue we are staying in this smaller balance with 4143-37 being our middle, 4168-62 Resistance and 4123-19 Support. IF Daily Support breaks watch out to the down side. **** We Do have Data this morning and for now holding under 4143-37 so watch out if data flushes under daily support and holds then we could see a big down day towards 4000 area and we will not be looking for any longs. Levels to Watch: Resistance Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 Current 4143-37 Support Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep Monday 2.13.23 Review: Sunday Globex pushed the market over our 4103 Resistance opened above it and we got a long move towards our supply area which is telling us there are still buyers at the cost basis at 4084-77 but even with both attempts over 4143-37 Resistance weren't as strong and didn't give much continuation or rejection, which so far tells us that this area over 4143-37 is heavier outside supply area and for now we are in balance here and still have shorts covering to keep us up. Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep: Currently over Daily Support, over T2 range and right around Previous Day High and waiting for CPI. Interesting spot we are in as we are sandwiched between Daily Support/Resistance in Distribution mode, can we hold up today and go higher? Will they use the data to run it higher and sell what they can before dropping the bid? or will we drop at CPI and either keep going or reverse and trend back up? Few different scenarios can play out but here is what we know. Our Daily Resistance area is 4215-4191 and Daily Support at 4123-4100 will be Key Locations to watch, any move into Daily Resistance we need to be careful with because unless we base under 4191-85 before taking it out or take it out and base above before taking out 4220-15 then it would be hard to sustain and keep up I think and we need to be careful for it to not reverse if we even go that way of course but we have to keep in mind its a larger supply area and if shorts see supply they will drop the bid and today if 4143-37 goes again that could give us lower targets down to 4084-77 which was already tested Thursday/Friday and might not have as much support this time around which is also our T2 low area. We are over T2 range and under supply so even with CPI we have to keep in mind that we could stay in a tight range still today without a big move out, something to watch out for if we just trade between the Daily Area. On the upside if 4143-37 holds today we have stops lined up over 4168-62 and 4191-85 those are good targets with possible move to 4220-15 if it stays strong. I will watch where the market will go first and make a decision from there. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4220-4215 // 4191-85 Current 4168-62 Support: Key Daily 4123-4100 // 4000 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4084-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stay cautious of a PEAK/TOP in the markets today.My SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the markets will establish a PEAK/TOP today - then trend downward. I created this video to help my followers stay aware of the short-term nature of price in a reactionary price trend - like today. If you are chasing this rally, stay very cautious of risks related to my SPY cycle patterns. Overall, I expect the markets to peak, stall, then trend downward over the next 48 hours. Take quick trades with targeted profit targets. This is not a friendly market uptrend in my opinion. I believe the $408 level is a likely downside price target for the SPY by Thursday. Follow my research
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
4
Trends showing lower highs; forming a funnel down?So we are hitting a 2hr uptrend right here at 4114. This is going to be a lower high 2hr uptrend. We have already had a lower high 30m and 1hr uptrend signal also. Having cashed out on my last trade, I might look at anything around the 2hr uptrend if it closes up here and causes that signal, as a short position. However, I am also aware that tomorrow is CPI data. So I may just sit out until that data shows some direciton in the market. There is some discussion that CPI inflation data is going to come in higher with headline Month over Month data, and that even Core Month over Month will be flat. The market may not respond well to that information if that happens. All in all, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4100 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Earnings; Lots of earnings this week as it is still earnings season, but nothing major in terms of today. Economic Data; Not much for today; CPI data is tomorrow morning (EST). My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
#ES_F Friday 2.10.23 Prep Thursday 2.09.23 Review: Globex made a move over 4143-37 Resistance into next resistance at 4168-62 where we failed to hold and once RTH opened we corrected inventory back under 4143-37 and held under giving us a signal for short trade towards lower support targets 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77. The way the day started was thinking that there is a chance to get under 4100 and with help of margin call selling push under 4084-77 but when we were still holding over 4100 before 2pm chances for that were slim but 4084-77 was still a good target to hit and test. We did fill the single prints from the Fed and now need to wait for next direction. Had some nice trades today, short from 43.75 area with exit around 84.50 would have been the trade. Friday 2.10.23 Prep: Previous session tagged 4084-77 Support and closed over it and now we are waiting to see what we will get next, continuation lower? another buy the dip? We are right at the edge of Key Support areas and can still expect to see buyers here, will it continue or hold somewhere around here and reverse later will depend on if its trapped supply coming out or outside selling. Right now we have to give it time and see what kind of structure it builds out to trade from. Going into tonight we watch 4103-4099 as Resistance and 4084-77 as Key Support and Previous Day Low. If we make a move under 4084-77 that opens the doors for a test of 4061-56 and if broken 4046-42 those two areas would need to be taken out for any continuation lower and to see our edge at 4030-25. For upside to play out we want to see buyers either at 4084-77 or strong buyers at 4061-56, our T2 low is at 4123-19 which is our Key Resistance for the day and we should have supply coming out from there which means we will only move there if we find strong buyers or run out of supply under 4103. If selling is not that strong watch for us to balance between 4103-4056 areas, Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 Intraday 4103-4099 Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 // 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4084-77 Key For Continuation 4161-56 Next Key 4030-25 **** We are still in our bigger balance area and until we show a full move out we can stay in these back and forth this whole month unless we start breaking out of these daily areas and holding under/over. Time to be patient and strike when the move sets up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2