Es!
Tax Harvesting12/28/2022 SELL IT ALL!!!
Last day to sell losses for your taxes and it looks like that is exactly what people did. They sold it all and sold it fast.
Global Markets Are Setting Up A MAJOR BOTTOM For 2023+US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom at this point.
We've witnessed the largest unwinding of global excesses since the DOT COM bubble and, before that, the 1929 market peak.
Use this symbol to experiment with market trends/setups: (TSLA + ARKK + ARKW + ARKQ + GME ) / 5
In my opinion, the deep selling is nearly over. This chart shows the custom symbol is very close to the center level on the historical Pitchfork and very close to a 1.0 (100%) Fibonacci extension from 2016 to 2019. I suspect the unwinding of the global markets is very close to a BOTTOM right now.
2023 could be very explosive, considering the extreme downside pressure we've seen over the past 15+ months.
Think about this for a few minutes...
_This chart shows price is currently AT or BELOW 2016~2018 center Std Dev levels. It may move a bit lower before actually finding a bottom.
_This price level represents a pre-2019 earnings/revenue expectation (ignoring the past four years of progress).
_The US Fed has already disrupted inflation trends and will likely shift towards more moderate policies in H1:2023.
_This was not an excess bubble as much as it was a speculative bubble during the COVID supply disruption.
Now, we shift back to more normal Revenue/Growth expectations. The US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom RIGHT NOW. The reversion/reflation trade (bullish) could be very powerful.
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Precious Metals will continue to appreciate - just like what happened in 2002~2005+. We are in the early stages of a reflation cycle (post COVID speculative bubble).
The bubble has burst. Prices have deflated. A reflation rally is very likely unless some global crisis event disrupts the global economy. Gold and Silver will likely rally 35% to 55% higher over the next 2+ years (possibly higher).
This is just like 2002~2005 all over again.
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I believe it is time to start initiating "TOKEN" positions in deeply undervalued Technology, Energy, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and other "relation" sectors.
Follow my research.
LIGHT BULB will eventually CLICK ES/SPX/SPYTrade Plan this Week
Pivot is 3875.
Big levels above are 3915 / 3960 / 3990 / 4000 / 4050.
Big levels below are 3832 / 3800 / 3777 / 3750 / 3712.
Market Structure
Short Term Trend. Spooz remains in a downtrend until we can get back above that 3915, which would be the first goal for bulls as it would put them back in firm control.
The Profiles. What the market has been communicating to us this past week is profit taking by shorts producing a relief bounce. We know this from the shape of the daily volume/market profile(s), as there were a few P-shaped profiles. Additionally, a pattern that has been developing has been poor lows, a sign of sellers selling into the hole without getting paid and effectively getting trapped, causing reversals. As is typically the case with short covering bounces, they get sold eventually. However, we need to remain nimble and aware that price can continue to move higher as long as there are new buyers. 3875 was a pretty key level last week, it has stalled the auction a few times, and I think there may be further pain for shorts as long as we remain above it. This will be our pivot this week. 3920 has unfinished auction, and downside was limited below 3800.
Given our pivot is 3875, bulls want above, bears want below. Above 3875 and I will be long biased, targeting 3894 and 3915. Breaking above and holding 3915 would be best case scenario for bulls, targeting 3960 and 3990 / 4000. Holding below 3875 would indicate weakness IMO, and targets in this case are 3832 and 3800. Break and hold below 3800 will target our 3777 and 3750 levels.
Inside Day. For Tuesday, we have an inside day set up which we want to be on the lookout for. The HOD was 3872, thus breaking above and holding we want to be bullish playing with further squeezing of shorts. The LOD being 3822, breaking below and holding we want to be bearish playing with the inside day break to the downside.
Trade Plan Tuesday
Pivot is 3875.
Bulls targeting 3894. Break and hold above targets 3915 / 3937 / 3950.
Bears targeting 3855. Break and hold below targets 3832 / 3818 / 3800.
Stay Frosty!
SPY - the alternative countThis is a video walk through of the SPY considering this count as a larger ABC move instead of an impulse with a bounce coming next.
I do feel this count is a strong possibility but it will be wrong over 383 or more conservatively, over 387.
Very few people think we can have a melt down over the holidays, and very few are thinking this is a possibility, which is why I'm bringing it up.
If I'm wrong I will update this chart, but If I'm right I will be updating the futures chart at
I hope it's helpful.
Good luck and Merry Christmas!
SPX small relief rally then lowerThis is the futures chart. I'm using it because it lines up well with the pitchfork fibs.
Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently.
Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a sell into the abyss. This is why having the minor bounce and then a 5th wave down, and then a bigger rally in early January makes sense to me.
Daily Chart with potential MA targets if they can get above 3900
Morning Update: Minor b of larger B underway It appears we’re in our minor b and it’s possible the a-wave of that b just completed at 3895. B waves not unlike 4th waves, are Wiley . All the complex patterns appear in B and 4th waves. We use Fibonacci to guide us as to where we are in these unique areas of price patterns...but we have to be prepared for almost anything.
If in fact our (a) of b just completed, we should expect price to consolidate in this area with an upward bias before resuming a c-wave of b lower into the mid to low 3800 region.
See micro count below.
The above micro chart should give some guidance as to my expectations over the course of the next week.
This morning’s post is my last update of 2022. I have truly enjoyed getting to know many of you here at TradingView.com this year. Hopefully 2022 was a great year of trading profits for you. This is a job, a love, a passion. It is NOT easy...anyone who says different is not a serious trader...and if you’re not a serious person in the market, chances are you’re losing your hard-earned wealth to those of us who are. I enter the holiday season flat, having done my last trades yesterday. I’m now mentally free to enjoy my family, recharge, and fall back in love with this job come the new year. I encourage you to do the same.
I hope next year to teach, mentor and further the trading relationship with some of you.
Happy Holidays to all,
Chris
SPX - Limited Upside LikelyThere's a ton of bears out there. There's no doubt about that. I am focusing on the structure here...
Now that the narrative is there, I am going to outline what I currently see here. In the next couple days, it looks like SPX is going to find some key resistance at the 3900-3920 area based on a measurement of what I predict is wave 3. This means we've got another low to put in before the year is over. Note - 3795 is likely not the low of this move down that we've seen since December 13th.
Corrections are complicated and are designed to confuse you and steal money from overleveraged traders without any plans. This is no different. Plenty of bears got their faces ripped off today so you need to be able to adapt to change as it comes.
Watch the 5 wave advance from the lows that we have here. Wait for a pullback, and then a completion of the cycle at 3915-3920 area. That's our 50% internal retracement. We have an area at the 38.2% currently which is the highest probability area for a wave 4 rejection (rejection in this case specifically).
One day at a time we will continue to dominate the market.
Special Update: Coming into the Short Term Topping RegionAs we approach the topping area for what I'm counting as the "a" wave of b...I have closed all open option positions. $27,300 in premium for approximately $3,600. I did so for one main reason. Tomorrow I'm traveling for Christmas and rather be sidetracked with open positions I plan to enjoy the holidays FLAT OF ANY MARKET EXPOSURE with family.
This should not reflect on my opinion with the current count. I've done my last trades for 2022.
I would expect our larger B wave to play as follows.
I'll update this evening.
Best to all,
Chris
Morning Update: Will we see 3894 for the "a-wave" ?This morning futures are flat, to higher, as it continues carving out what I'm counting as just the a-wave. I would like to see this a-wave get to at least 3894 before the corresponding b-wave starts. As you can see from the below, I am expecting this larger b-wave pattern to ultimately reconcile in the 3947-4036 area for just a standard retracement b-wave.
Once we get into the a-wave target box we will have a 3-wave retracement. Although I am counting this as just the a-wave, technically we could complete there. Again I'll remind you to know you're stop levels. As of now, nothing price has done is extraordinary, so therefore I have no reason to conclude we will not retrace in a standard fashion which is price in the minimum area of 3947 to 4036 , with a maximum of 4100.
Lastly I will be closing my 4100-4200 short calls today as they are pretty much worthless and provide no hedge. I will restrike higher if appropriate.
House Keeping: My family and I will be spending Christmas with our son who recently moved to Kansas City, MO. We leave tomorrow and return to Orlando on January 29th. Therefore, tomorrow's morning update will be the last post till around 12/30 while we celebrate the holidays with family.
Best to all,
Chris
Evening Update: (a) of b UnderwayIdeally (a) of b should target the .382 which is 3947 minimally....but be aware of a potential completion at the 3890-95 area at the .236. With the red count still hanging out there we should be prepared for shallow retraces. To the degree this b wave plays and retraces to the ideal location of 4030-4040 then the Red Count again loses even more probability. I've mentioned this count was a low probability to begin with... but in an abundance of caution I bring it up.
Micro count below.
This b wave should take us into end of this week to beginning of next week for final completion . If long, make sure you have stops in place.
Best to all,
Chris
ES needs to get above 3881.50 to continue goingI can say that the lows are in for now, but the only issue is the timing, its not going to bottom till the 22nd.
So to me it seems its going to test lows 3750ES zone by the 22nd and then go up into early high next week on the 26-27th.
Thursday should mark the bottom and then go up on Fri hard on the data is my thinking. That high should be limited to 3950-60SPX imo
Morning Update: Wave-a bottomed? In my weekend update I outlined the below.
“However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area . Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly lower than the 1.0 Fib area at 3940. From there we should expect one more decline potentially below 3830 to right around the 3800 level...slightly above the 2.0.”
Since we came into the area of right above the 2.0 because of extensions I can draw a reasonable conclusion that the a-wave has bottomed. The pattern appears full and therefore, it is my expectation we will now retrace some of the losses incurred over the last several days as per the below micro chart. This retracement pathway outlines an IDEAL RETRACEMENT. There's no guarantees we will get an ideal retracement...but on a minimal pathway I would expect the .382 area of 3940-3950 to hit.
Lastly, on the 4-hour main chart in the post you can see MACD is now lower than at the 3502 bottom in October. Hidden Bullish Divergence simply adds to the notion that prices could reverse soon. If you plan to buy for the b-wave retracement, I would watch or stop out at 3794 if you want to give this some room, or last night's LOD at 3803.50. Buying this pattern outright should only be done with a disciplined risk management plan.
Best to all,
Chris
ES quick update with support boxesHavent updated my ES progress chart, here is one
If first box is taken (which I think has high chances of holding tonight), then the second box in 3750ES zone should hold and bounce into the open.
If second box gets hit early am before the open, it will be a perfect buying opportunity for me for a 100 points move up plus
Trade Alert: Short -25 Dec EOM 3700 PutsCurrently I am short -25 calls that expire EOM Dec 22. I'm short -10 4200 Calls which are almost worthless and -15 4100 calls in which I'm up almost 65%. Those positions enable me to put on opposing short put trades without utilizing any additional buying power . I'm now short -25 3700 EOM Dec Puts at $10.50 for an additional $13,054.50 in premium. This would enable me to get to half of my original December goal.
I want to be clear, I am not sure we have bottomed in wave a of larger B. But with the target for the larger B being down in the 3700 region...I felt it best to take advantage of the time premium. This does not augment my analysis in the slightest. This position affords me an additional 140 points of leeway...so be careful with outright longs.
I'll update in the morning.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX plan for the weekA walk through of what I think is the most probable price action for the week. I'll update on a static chart tomorrow. Good luck!
Evening Update: We're in the Target Box for "a"We're coming into the bottoming zone I forecasted. As price finishes its minor wave 5 of c of larger a, we could get down to as low as the 3799 -3810 area.
Price should bottom soon, in which I expect a rally back to as high as the 4044 level. This could be a nice tradeable rally for at least 120 to as much as 200 points. In the area of 3795 I may strike an opposing short -25 puts trade Dec EOM which will not use any additional buying power. Let's see how the ES closes and the overnights.
Again, we have the red count out there...if we get under 3760 then this starts to become a higher probability...so going long and shorting puts should be done when a bottom is confirmed.
Best to all,
Looking for ES One hour breakoutThe ES one hour time frame is in a large sideways
range. The market is near the bottom of the range
but has not closed below support. It will be a good
idea to wait for the market to enter into the sell
zone before looking for selling ideas.
Entry: Counter trend line break bearish in the
sell zone below the one hour support.
STOP: In the buy zone above the entry price.
LIMIT: 3554.75
Once or if the market enters into the sell zone.
As long as the market stays in the sell zone. It
will be a good idea to turn to the five minute
time frame and to look for tunnel trader short /
destination trader short / chandelier trader
short ideas towards the price target.
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today?SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today?
Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are.
Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain further control.
Will Powell be dovish or Hawkish - The way I see it we get coin flip - Santa or the grinch.
Trade Journal
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 12/19Next Support Level Being Tested
The key support level identified in our trading plans published on Wed., 12/07 - and, reiterated on Thu., 12/15 - at 3900-3910 has been decisively broken down, and the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the broader 3810-3830 range on a daily close basis. If you are short, you might want to take profits on a break out of this range. If you are itching to go long, you might want to wait until the range is broken out of to the upside.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went short on Thursday, 12/15, on a break below 3895 (opened at 3893.51) with a 40-point trailing stop and a break-even hard stop in effect. Models are indicating instituting a hard stop at 3843 for today. If stopped out, models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for MON. 12/19:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3825, 3838, 3844, or 3852 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3840, 3833 or 3820 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3863, and short exits on a break above 3813. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please see for yourself how our published trading plans have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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Perfect Bull Trap Setup - SPY 20ema/50ema Bear CrossoverWe have been watching this setup since Oct & Nov but it was held off by the wu-tang double bottom bounce and the nearly 20% move off the lows.
Keep eyes on the markets here for a flush.
Historically significant crossover as I have pointed iut in past published videos and charts with huge potential for extreme downside pressure.
DXY holding the 103 support is significant.
Morning Update: Minor wave 4 STILL UNDERWAY with OML to comeGood morning all.
As we get ready for today's trading day we find price is consolidating in our minor wave 4 with ultimately one more poke lower towards the 3830 to 3800 region. Technically, this micro wave 4 can be done so I have indicated that with an alternative purple 4 on the below micro chart. This is an alternative if price breaches 3855 without moving into the 3900 region. However, my expectation is we have NOT finished wave 4 and should be carving out our minor b of 4 now. I do expect price to eventually get above 3900 in the next 24-48 hours. This is not an area that is safe to trade. Undoubtedly as I write this some of you will go long. Long is a slightly higher risk trade even though I am expecting slightly higher due to an alternate label being placed on the micro chart.
Additionally to short is to participate in the final machinations of a short term downtrend and you risk over staying your welcome. Let the pattern play out.
We should get OML this week, then have a tradable rally to conclude the year. Lets see what clues take place today and I'll update you this evening.
Best to all,
Chris
Weekly Analysis 12/18After a crazy, news heavy week, I expect price to begin bullish, and end bearish. Next week, we have the Consumer Confidence, GDP, and PCE releases. It will be interesting to see if we do in fact see a santa rally to finish the year off. In ICT fashion, I expect the high of week to be made on tuesday / wednesday.
