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Morning Update: To break-out or break-down that is the questionLast night I decided to look at this chart as if I was seeing it for this time. Its funny, but the first impression I got was this is NOT a chart that price is going to run away with bullishly. Many of you have heard me say that with respect to this long drawn out consolidation since the 22nd of December. Problem is we have meandered up the whole time. But this is not new. Ever since we bottomed in October at 3502, we haven't had a decent impulsive wave in the ES. Almost every rally eventually overlapped. We have been in a choppy market ever since. I hope to gain some clarity shortly. On the micro chart above, we have topped in Black "b" or with one more poke into the target box we will top. If we come up short of the target box we still have 1-2 pointing down in the black count. In the purple count we should head lower for our wave 2 of C that is ultimately headed to the 4300 area. So you understand there are many potential outcomes to consider...but in the very short term it appears both counts point lower. If we get a push up to the 3985 to 4000 area, I may take an outright short and close towards the wave 2 target box in purple. If I do this trade I will post a "trade alert". Lets see what clues, or lack of, we get today. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
How the ES has reacted to EIA Petroleum Status ReportsEIA Petroleum Status Reports are considered high-impact news, yet how much do they impact ES futures? In the 30 minutes after it gets reported at 10:30am ET, here's how ES has reacted the last 5 times: Jan 4: 14.75-point range, closing up 0.21% after 30 minutes Dec 28: 11.5-point range, closing up 0.25% after 30 minutes Dec 21: 12-point range, closing up 0.12% after 30 minutes Dec 14: 8.75-point range, closing up 0.20% after 30 minutes Dec 7: 13.75-point range, closing up 0.09% after 30 minutes Plenty of range there to make money... and plenty of range to get whipsawed out for a loss. so be careful. Unless you have a specific strategy to trade the EIA Petroleum Status Report news, or you're in for a longer hold, consider sitting it out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingTruthseeker
Evening Update: Well, that cleared up Nothing Today’s price action did nothing to clear things up or give some sort of advantage to either the Black or Purple counts. If the Black count is going to play out price needs to breach 3850 and then 3788. For purple to play out, price needs above 3974. Until then we chop around with no discernable purpose. Not being a day-trader, I refuse to get caught up in this tug of war. I prefer to be a little more patient. I believe we will have a tradeable trend to rely on shortly. If Black plays out my area of trade interest is approximately 3750, whereas, if purple plays out, my area of trade interest will be 3985-4038. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
Morning Update: ES Futures are in No Man's LandWith yesterday's spike and reversal, for this analyst, it continues to complicate things. Yesterday's rally came in the form of a 5 wave structure. For me the question remains a 5-wave structure of what? ( a c-wave to complete black b of B, or a wave-1 of purple C) In the primary black count, we came up short of a standard retracement by just 10 points. But those 10 points became a potential big clue when price reversed. Follow along with me...In the main chart our bounce off of 3502 to our A-wave high took 2 months to complete. I was looking for a B wave to complete in roughly the same timeframe. I was not looking for it to complete in 3 weeks. Therefore I have added a purple count that reflects B having completed at 3788 and forming a leading diagonal for 1 of c to start off our c-wave higher. If price comes down but does not breach the 3850 level and then impulsively takes out yesterday's high of 3974, then there's a high probability we're headed to the 4300 area for our primary b-wave. As of now, I have not abandoned my primary black B count. In the black primary count we topped in b of B yesterday and should be headed down to 3700-3600 area. AS OF THIS MORNING, I HAVE NO PROBABLE DISTINCTION BETWEEN BLACK AND PURPLE. In my opinion we're in no mans land until we breakdown below 3850 and then immediately breach 3788...Or we trade above yesterdays high 3974. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: ES Futures Remain Deadlocked in a ZoneEach time I look for ES Futures to reconcile lower, we move to the high end of the range we have been deadlocked in since 3rd week of December. Suffice to say we have no reconciliation up or down despite the 2-3% rally on Friday. I maintain my perspective that this long drawn out overlapping pattern will reconcile itself lower. But I am not interested in moving back to the low end of the consolidation area. I need to see a breach of 3788. To the degree we do not breach 3788 and eventually move impulsively higher ( which is not my primary expectation ) I may be forced to consider the larger B wave concluded at 3788 and we're now on our way to 4300. That would make this consolidation area a leading diagonal to start the trend higher in a C wave. The main reason I do not believe this to be the case is the cash index tagged the 1.0 Fib Extension and where A=C. As you can see from the below we do not have such a drawn out overlapping pattern. We have what appears to be a clean ABC and right into the 1.0. Granted, we could break out and continue higher...but I'm having a hard time seeing that happen right now. Lets see what clues todays session brings us. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high. That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
SP500 headed higherSP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level. Same time the MACD signal went positive Breakout of range Above anchored VWAP from the low RSI above 50 Anyone's guess how much higher it can go, but with current analysis, I see the previous highly range being tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RKchartest
Weekend Update: ES Rallies furthering the pattern complexity ES Futures have been in a tight range since Thursday December 22nd of last year when it completed its initial a-wave down from the 4180 high. The overlapping price action has given me a fit to count. What started out as an expectation of a standard retracement in b of B, eventually turned into the expectation of a triangle, which is now as best as I can ascertain, a triple zig zag. Although the above pattern featured below in the micro chart is very similar to a diagonal, it cannot be one , because diagonals are motive waves. Motive waves are trend directional in nature, and this pattern still appears corrective. At the start of Friday’s trading day, I was expecting lower, but knew I was not going to be putting on a trade that day. As my longer-term followers are used to hearing from me price has to come to me when putting on a trade. It is only when price is coming to me that I know I’m dialed into where the Elliott wave analysis is forecasting. Therefore, I have the largest chance of making a profit. So, my plan is to continue to wait until this consolidation is clearly over. With respect to the current pattern, there’s only so many interpretations that can be made. Being a B-wave, it is expected to potentially become complex and it is this complexity that has me pulling me back from trading. As of right now I have 3 waves up that appear impulsive in nature. 3938.25 is the 1.0 extension and I would expect some sort of reaction at that level. To conclude there would make sense of this whole mess. Whether this pattern completes there or not is yet to be determined. However, I stand by previous assertions that the consolidation pattern we have been experiencing for the last almost 2 weeks in not a terribly bullish pattern. Aside from all the rallies and declines within the last 2 weeks...price has not moved much at all. The standard retracement area for this b-wave originally was as high as 3985-4030. I stopped looking for price to reach those levels due to the overlap. I remain of the same opinion while writing my weekend update...but I will also remain open minded until I get clarity in the pattern. In conclusion, let's see if price can muster the strength to get to 3938.25 and the reaction afterwards. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Bears Still on the Field - SPX futuresThe idea from yesterday is not working as I thought so I had to reevaluate what I'm seeing this morning. The general bias is still down - under the 18ma on daily and weekly, embedded bearish slow stochastic, put call ratios back to normal levels again, and more.... If we move quickly downward, there is daily BB support near 3740 on ES. That should at least pause the market but it's no guarantee that a rally would come from that support. If we are starting a C wave down all bounces will be minimal at best. Another option is we rally hard after the NFP to the daily 18ma at 3880 area - possible for sure but unless they can hold above the 18ma by close it will be just a bull trap. I believe many are thinking a bounce and then lower which is why I'm not so sure about a bounce at this time. A sell down with no bounce would catch the majority of longs off guard and keep short sellers from getting into a good position to sell. Please be careful and as always - good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
8