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Morning Update: Lower first then new local high?The count I'm tracking has price carving out it's wave 4 in a diagonal higher with OMH to come. In all cases these will be 3 wave moves within 4 and 5. Nothing has changed since my last update. I did want to mention we should NOT go below 3900 at any time within this current count. If that happens, then "a" would likely be done and now we're on our "b" of B. That is not my preference as of this morning...but if that does play out, then wave a of 4 would be the 5 and would have completed as a 3 wave move. Additionally I'll then be looking to short that retrace then. However, as of right now, we are awaiting OML in wave 4 within our diagonal structure. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Evening Update: LD for wave "a" of B still in progressIf my followers can remember back when we struck the lows at 3502, I held onto the notion we would make another low to complete the downside pattern. We never got that final low. I anguished over that 3502 low, and still do , because I can not make out a discernable 5 wave pattern into 3502. Since we then we have overlapped our way up in what yet again appears to be another diagonal. Since I am counting this as "a" of Larger B, that would make it an (LD) leading diagonal. The reason why it is not an ending diagonal for "a" is price would essentially have to retrace the vast majority of this rally off the 3502 lows. Additionally, since we're counting this as a B wave...I do not see this completing soon. So I believe the up trend will continue upon the completion of this initial pattern off 3502 and the LD is most appropriate in this circumstance. Now some of you may ask, if this is in fact an LD, then 3502 could also be the bottom. This entire LD may cap off our wave 1 higher. Valid Point. That could be the case. Again, I'll refer you back to the 3502 low and the rally off that bottom. If 3502 was the bear market low, then why have we rallied so indecisively? A leading diagonal to end a bear market decline is valid....BUT I WOULD CONCLUDE IT HAS TO BE RARE. I SAY HAS TO BE...BECAUSE I DO NOT KNOW OF ANY BEAR MARKETS THAT ENDED WITH AN LD TO UPSIDE. Therefore, I don’t give much weight to the bottom being in because of the low probability nature of the current pattern. This is the main reason why I am counting this pattern as an overall countertrend retracement of the larger "a" wave. Additionally, I'm am counting this as the "a" wave and not the "A" wave, because I believe this pending "C" wave down is what will cause us to lose positive divergence on the daily chart and reveal we are in SC wave IV...but that is intuition as of now. If we do not lose positive divergence I will change my labeling to "A" vs. "a" and this upcoming decline will complete this bear market pattern. So for tonight and into the morning, I look for more confirmation that we're going to finish this c wave of wave 4 in our LD in wave "a" of B around the 3910-20 area and move higher from there. Please post any thoughtful questions below regarding the above analysis. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
SPY Cycle Patterns for Nov 28 Thru Dec 2 - A Sideways Melt-upThis week, I expect a bit of a sideways melt-up before the Dec 7 start of the Santa Rally. The markets are digesting the post Thanksgiving trends and may continue to stay in a fairly narrow range over the next 7~10+ days. I do believe a critical Fibonacci inflation point is likely before Dec 7~10 - prompting a moderately strong Santa Rally phase to start. Reading some of the comments on Twitter, analysts and various traders seem to be all over the place. Some are calling for a massive price collapse to take place. Others are suggesting a new rally phase will take place. What I can tell you is that, which you should be watching my Youtube videos to follow my Custom Indexes, global traders are shifting capital away from global risks and into US Dollar based assets. This trend will likely continue for many months still. The unwinding of global speculative excesses (particularly in nations which saw big increases in home values - think China/Asia, Canada, others) and/or those caught in the pre-Covid excess credit/debt trap (the cheap USD carry trade) will likely continue to struggle as the "revaluation event" puts even more pressure on these foreign markets. Canada is an interesting example. A fairly strong economy that saw a big increase in wealth, asset valuations, and investments before, through, and even after COVID. The excesses were fueled by a global speculative phase (rising prices), almost like a "tulip bubble" where everyone through "I can't miss this incredible opportunity"... So they jumped in AT ANY COST. Just like what we saw with Bitcoin, the downside to that rally may be a -50% to -70% decline of certain assets over time. One must try to understand that when an environment of weaker asset growth (homes and other tangible assets) settles in throughout the world, capital will seek three things: Safety Security ROI You can't find these three things in extended underperforming assets (think China/Asia, Canada, others). That capital MUST move towards any economy that will contract the least, has the strongest base valuation correlation, and has the potential for moderate earnings, revenues, and RECOVERY. In my opinion, that is the US, UK, and possibly Japanese markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Morning Update: SPX Futures signaling a more muted rally if at Overnight the SPX futures declined to the point where both the minor wave iv low of one lesser degree, as well as, the wave 1 top were breached. This leaves only an ending diagonal for our c wave of “a” of B. Since we bottomed on November 17th at 3912.50 price has advanced in an overlapping manner. This type of pattern portends an ending diagonal which typically means price will return to where the diagonal began...which is 3912.50. That could be the start of our “b” of B wave low as depicted above, or a larger diagonal as depicted in purple. This larger diagonal becomes the primary count with a breach of 3988...with “b” of B taking precedence below 3900. It is still my preference for OMH, however, I do not believe this rally now has the strength to get into the 4100 area without a more pronounced decline and consolidation. I am targeting 4060-4072 area for OMH if this is what price intends to do. Our parameters for a more pronounced decline are listed above. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 2.85% , down from 3.06% of last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 63th percentile, while with VIX we are on 29th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 2.9% In case of bearish - 2.56% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 24.3% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 4143 BOT: 3897 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3936 79% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 4050 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 26% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
FIBS CONVERGE - .612 .382 SPX AND ES1 SHORT PRICE REJECTION 37 minutes ago Comment: SEE FUTURES MAKING THIS MORE CLEAR = Interesting how FIB lines stay constant no matter what start or ending point you use 1. The Fib from Jan 4th high calls this the .382 Resistance line 2. The Fib from Aug 16th high calls this the .618 Resistance line 3. They BOTH LAND on the 4000 cash - 4030 on the FUTURES Note the declining volume the higher she goes Notice how the EMA CLOUDS mark key TURNING points marked with circles as it rose into the cloud EMA Cloud where areas are shaded between two desired EMAs. The concept implies the EMA cloud area serves as support or resistance for Swing Trading 5-12 or 5-13 EMA cloud acts as a fluid trendline for day trades. 8-9 EMA Clouds can be used as pullback Levels –(optional). Additionally, a high-level price over or under 34-50 EMA clouds confirms either a bullish or bearish bias on the price action for any timeframe
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by CapeAfrican
4
VIX setting up for a Santa Rally?I've spent a lot of time drawing on the VIX chart today since we are coming up on an area that defines 3 separate ascending wedge patterns with one starting before the 2020 run that we have tapped twice without making a lower low. And although that lower trendline is still quite a way down, currently at 16.57, it's not a far stretch if retail sales come out strong, JP keeps quiet, and there are plans for a Santa rally lurking behind the scenes. With that being said, we have just broken the next oldest pattern, and the youngest one not much farther down at 19.66 and the .86 fib of the 2020 run up is smack in the middle at 20.13 so for tomorrow, I have potential reversal area from 20.44 to 20.13 with 20.13 to 19.71 becoming bearish down to below 19. My argument for the upside is a bit more hocus pocus as I had to put on a pitchfork to even feel good about it, but we made the inside candle Friday, which, big deal, it was a half day, but following that with an outside candle on a retail rich week wouldn't shock me at all. So I'm gonna throw my dart. If we gap up, we hit around 21.30 and come back down to close between 19.89 and 20.13 in which case the case for breaking down past 19.66 becomes more likely. SANTA RALLY!!! But, if we gap down into that bounce zone and don't break the 20.13, then we still close high and and head back to Wednesdays high. I like this case more if we bounce off the Daily low and just double bottom. BUT, I'm still leaning to a high of 22.30 on the WEEK, just because I feel like the case is better stated for a downside overall. We just have much more reason to pull back down with the biggest reason being that we haven't retested that 2020 pattern for over a year. Historically I don't see any rhyme or reason except that VIX does tend to rise during December if only for a day, and even that isn't well structured. Sooo... who the knows then the VIX is gonna VIX. What we do know is that we have spent so much time in what used to be high volatilely territory that we've started to make a home here and that contradicts what the VIX is designed to do. We've held above averages, between $10-20, for more days and gone higher than we did in the '08 housing crisis, and all while our economy is too strong for its own good. So we've either become fairly melodramatic, OR we're setting up residence. If the latter is true then we can just throw out all historical data that predates circa 2018 and start anew. I personally want to see what happens if we break down below 16.50. Do we stabilize and go back to a boring trend style value market? Or does everyone freak out and rabidly buy everything in sight. All we can do is wait, and look to the right.
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose