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Special Update: Micro Count AttachedSo last night was our company Xmas celebration. I got home at 11pm...for reasons unknown to me...I can't sleep. My insomnia has me into charts and now I must warn you...I'm drinking coffee...lol. But the reason for this special update is this contract roll over, and the various charts. I am getting different signals from the SPX cash chart, the Futures continuous chart and then lastly the outright contract chart of ESH23. Unless you're experienced with trading futures...this will sound like gibberish to you. The chart above is the Futures continuous chart. We have the .618 at 4035 (just hit as I'm writing this) and the .786 at 4068. I think one or BOTH of those areas have a shot at being hitting. The reason is the "a" wave of a corrective structure will typically target right around the .382 retracement level which we did...but our decline was too shallow to stop at the .618...and I am now of the opinion we will tag the .786 up at 4068 within that this chart. Suffice to say, the SPX chart above looks like as long as we stay below 4022 which is where wave 1 of c bottomed...then OML down completes this "5 of a" wave down. However given with how futures are trading...I believe this pattern could become invalidated. The ESH23 chart I can not track here...but within my Think or Swim platform we're targeting the 4061 area. If price gets into the 4060-4070 area...it is here where I will observe the pattern to restrike short. Above 4070 and I’m on the sidelines….I'll update on this post if I do so. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Morning Update: Price in a Vulnerable Position With the advance into the 4030 area price has now retraced to just below the .618% of the decline from 4110 to 3914. We also have what appears to be a pretty clear head and shoulders topping pattern. I mentioned the other day about being weary of buying as we decline. The main reason for this warning is that old red count I do not feature on the intraday chart. You'll remember this chart below. I do not see a high probability to the count but there is still a possibility. You'll know if red is playing out if we start declining impulsively and within several weeks we've breached the 3502 low. I'm short -5 contracts from 4023 and have a -2 contract limit in at 4035. If price can breach 3956 and then impulsively take out 3912.50, 3830 becomes a real possibility. I may do a special update later on in the trading day if price gets volatile today. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Evening Update (Early): Futures Topping shortly if not alreadyI have a work related Christmas Event to attend tonight so I'm putting out my evening update early. As you can see we've come into the .618% retracement of our "a" wave for a "b" wave top. It is possible the .768% at 4006 gets tagged...but it is not my expectation for price to more beyond that. Once we have a confirmed top I expect a "c" wave down towards the area of 3830. Nothing more to add. I'll update tomorrow morning. Have a great evening. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
6
SPY Cycle Patterns For Dec 12, 2022 - More sideways melt-up.Here are the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week. Expect more sideways melt-up trending as we head into the Fed rate decision and key economic data. Traders will start to shift into early 2023 expectations this week (after the Fed). Check out my other posts. The markets are not expecting anything extraordinary right now - more of the same. The Fed rate decision will likely come in between 50pb and 75pb (as expected). All of this has been BAKED INTO the markets already. I can tell you what I'm seeing out here in So. Cal... Shoppers EVERYWHERE. Traffic is a mess. Lots of our of state cars everywhere. Malls and shopping centers seem packed. From what I can see, Q4:2022 will probably stay very solid for retail and online shopping. Unless there is some catalyst to BREAK the markets, US stocks should slide into 2023 with fairly strong expectations. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Morning Update: Futures poised to visit the 3800'sIn the overnights the futures bounced between slight losses to gains. As I posted in my weekend update the SPX cash index looks ready to at least make one more lower low. I can't tell if we'll get that today. Lastly "tis the season for tax related selling". As of this morning I'm 50/50 whether this is a minor wave 4 with OML coming, or the "b' wave, in which we are in the target box for. If the latter, than OML is not what we'll get but we'll end up with is a c of "a" down that could be in the area of 150 -200 points lower. If we are impulsively trading below 3880 than we know this is a c wave and not wave 5 of a. Today should fill in more of the pattern and I'll update tonight. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
Weekend Update: Good Chance I get my December Goal Next WeekAs my followers know , In my quest to close out my 2022 P&L I am looking to manufacture $50,000 in profits in the month of December. Last week allowed me to get to half that goal. If you're new to reading or following me, I do not share this information to brag. I do not claim to be some gifted trader with the best information or processes known to man. I would characterize myself as a Full-Time Pattern Analyst and a part-time trader. Now granted, This is how I make a living. But I trade 10% of the time and analyze 90% of the time...so I guess that would make me a part-time trader. Recap: (You can scroll through my posts for context on the below) Currently I am short 7 ES contracts at 3975.25 (after the roll over to the active contract) my basis is 4005.25. I have used 68% my allocated buying power of 25 contracts. I'm short -10 ES Dec EOM 4200 Calls, and -7 outright contracts. So far I have generated approximately $25,000 but much of that is unrealized gains in my current position in which I have not closed. The current pattern is shaping up to last into next week and maybe slightly beyond for our larger “a” wave...in which I am targeting the 3880-3820 area. 3835 is the 1.0 and where A=C. So that’s a minimum of 90 points lower just at 3880. At 3880 I make my December goal with my current position. In the cash market, we still need a wave 5 down...of approximately 20 points should do it. As my longer term followers know, I do not follow the news, other analysts, etc. What you get from me here is literally created in a vacuum. On Thursday evening I was talking to @vancebaker and he casually mentioned, "...We have the report tomorrow at 830am." I actually said, what report? It was a funny moment at the time, but I caught myself thinking..."wow, am I out of touch?' Usually I know when the catalysts are arriving...but my lack of respect for news and events sometimes leaves me oblivious to the economic calendar. I know that sounds unorthodox to some of you reading me right now...but after sharing over 500 ideas with my followers in the last 10 months...I think my older followers have come around to my way of thinking. I share the details of my successes and failures here to provide context to those who read me. I give detailed analysis and my posts here are not guesses. Hopefully what I pass along through my posts here on Trading View is assisting you in formulating your own strategies to trade for profit. I'll conclude with the next couple weeks should certainly be interesting as traders close out December around the world. If we can get through December, we should have at least a couple months of upside to trade in the beginning of the new year. Best to all, Chris Starting January 3rd I will limit my posts to once per week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
9
Special Update: 3981 and I may press my shortSometimes the "Gods of Trading" provide...and then there are times...they provide abundance ...lol This pattern up from the morning's spike appears almost complete except for OMH...My better judgement tells me at approximately 3981 ish if we get there ...could be the pinnacle to complete this pattern and cascade lower from there . Additionally, I already have a somewhat large short position at 3975.25 and why overleverage?...but to be clear... I am still short...nothing has changed in my perspective whatsoever. Days ago I said for my December close I may dedicate buying power to leverage up to 25 ES contracts. I am short 10 ES Dec EOM 4200 calls which generated $6400, $2,500 in scalping so far...and my current position of -7 ES contracts. I could deploy 8 more contracts..but right now...I am observing...ONE MORE SLIGHT HIGH AND I MAY DEPLOY A PORTION OF THOSE REMAINING 8. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Morning Update: Now short 7 contracts at an average of 3975.25 This morning the active continuous ES contract reached a high of 3982.75 as of this update. I posted to last night's updated where I added 3 additional contracts at 3981 this morning bringing my average to 3975.25 on 7 ESZ22 contracts. With Trading View's charts now featuring the ESH23 contract much of what I write here may not match up to the chart. The pattern could still be a wave 4 as price has not overlapped wave 1. However, this movement upward from 3914 yesterday is starting to look like it’s our "b" wave retracement. However our “b” of still the “a” wave. You’ll notice in the chart above I am now labeling our wave a as having subdivided to where the decline I am anticipating today will be the start of our “c” to conclude our larger a wave decline of this abc. I am obviously positioned for downside...and as of right now this chart looks poised to me to reconcile lower...and the an equally probable outcome of reconciling A LOT LOWER 3810. A couple days ago I mentioned to would buy the next low in size...then during the day started a short position. Being that it is looking more and more likely this is still the "a" wave...I will observe the decline rather than outright buy. BE CAREFUL BUYING IF TODAY SHAPES UP TO BE A DECLINE AS I AM LOOKING FOR. Any activity or update to trading will be done here on this post. CHECK BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY OR KEEP THIS POST UP ON YOUR SCREEN IF INTERESTED. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
7
Evening Update: Today Muddied the Waters a Bit In this morning’s update I wrote that I was expecting 3904-3882 area. 3904 would be the minimum for completion...as wave 3 extended beyond the 1.618% vs ending at 1.382%. When patterns extend, they complete at areas beyond the ideal conclusion areas. Therefore the 1.786% is where I would expect a standard impulse to end...but since wave 3 extended I would anticipate the 2.0 to the area of the 2.618 to be tagged. But the 1.786% at the 3904 area should at the very least get tagged. Today our wave 4 (as I am counting it) was drawn out. It makes perfect sense since the wave 2 was NOT. We got that drawn out price action today. I could have chosen to wait for the next low to go long... but I decided to start a short position. The reason I made this decision was we extended downward...therefore the retrace in wave 4 should tag areas to reflect wave 3 extended. Normally a wave 4 will target the 1.382 to 1.0 depending on how the impulse is shaping out. We did not hit the 1.0 today, but I honestly wasn’t expecting we would, given the downward extensions. However we came close...which is not what I would expect. I am still counting this as a wave 4 retrace of wave “a” down...but I have to also be mindful now that price entered the “b” wave target area...this could be the "b" wave...and we could make a bee-line to the 3700 area. So, in my opinion, whether this is a wave 4 retrace, shorting is not the worst idea...even though we’re only expecting OML. If it’s a “b” wave then price could drop deeper than 3882 from here. Right now, I’m short 4 ES contracts at an average price of 3957.25. I am watching tonight for how the pattern develops...but overall, it is my opinion it's just a wave 4 and OML gets it done. But I want to be cautious with longs down in that area. My opinion on it being still just a wave 4 of c of a is the cash market. Cash market appears slightly clearer than the ES with OML to go. Let’s see what tomorrow brings and if the 3904-3882 area gets some action tomorrow. Above the 3885 area and I start to think this is no longer a 4 and we're in a "b" wave. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
7
Morning Update: 3904 - 3882 Area in SightIn the overnights we came down but did not make that new low. I spend a lot of time looking for ideal patterns to trade. With the pressure on me in the last month of 2022, a move down below 3912.50 to the area outlined above is an ideal pattern bottom. If I get that, I plan to put on a sizeable long which could provide a 100 point move to the upside. If we do get that move lower today and I'm successful in filling my long trade...I do not plan on staying in it for the full 100 points. This is a countertrend trade and they are much riskier. However, the move higher will be a 3-wave move in an abc, and it's the "a" wave I want to peel off some profits. 3960 area is where I would close this trade. So the goal today and tomorrow is 50-80 ES points. December Goal $50,000 Short ES Calls 4200 strike = $6400 12.7.22 = Scalping = $2,500 Remaining = $41,100 to go If for whatever reason we do not get that lower low I'm looking for...we regroup to potentially short the retrace that could end up in the low 4,000 area. Remember: We let price come to us. Even though I believe we have tradable upside from here...I am expecting OML which could be 50 points lower. Observing, waiting and being patient for price to come to you puts you in trades of high confidence, and allows you to ride out trades to designated targets. I'll post all activity today in this post in the update area like yesterday. Lastly, I am not a day trader by nature. However I am far more active this month because I am closing out my Annual P&L in 3 weeks. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
12
SPX - 2008 vs 2022 ---- levels to watch All in the video, very simply bulls want to at least hold 3900 for the week to keep the weekly 18 ma bias in the bullish camp. Even better for bulls would be recapturing 4k which would get us over the daily 18ma again. Bears want to see the weekly 18ma at 3900 break and hold under for the week, but a test of the daily 18 at 4k and rejection would be an ideal shorting opportunity. Jobs numbers tomorrow at 8:30 may get us to the daily 18ma test, but it's only bullish if we close above it on a daily close. The Weekly candle will give more clues for next week. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
5
Evening Update: Getting closer to a local lowToday was a rather productive day but no big moves. I was able to trade a total 50 ES points on the short side. I posted that trade activity in the morning update . Nonetheless, we did not breach 3912.50…we came close but nothing definitive. Tonight, I expect we will breach that area, or at least by the time the cash market opens tomorrow. Any move above 3982 invalidates the OML expectation. It is still my expectation for this decline to complete in the area of 3904 to 3882 before our retrace higher begins. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch